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What do we know about Putin’s controversial call-up of reservists?

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What do we know about Putin’s controversial call-up of reservists?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared a “partial army mobilisation” that might see an preliminary 300,000 reservists be a part of Moscow’s battle in Ukraine. 

However, how will the call-up of recent troops work? What has been the response in Russia? And what occurs subsequent if the mobilisation fails?

What do we all know in regards to the troops call-up?

Putin referred to a partial mobilisation of reservists in his speech, however there’s little element on numbers within the authorities’s decree.

Russia’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu did later say that as much as 300,000 individuals could possibly be mobilised from a pool of 25 million. 

Critics level out the decree has been left intentionally imprecise to offer the authorities a large diploma of latitude when implementing it.

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The fast call-up of 300,000 reservists will concern those that have beforehand served within the Russian military and have fight expertise or specialised army abilities. College students or conscripts — younger males serving necessary 12-month phrases within the armed forces — is not going to be included.

The reservists can’t bodily be deployed to Ukraine instantly as they might want to first bear refresher or new coaching and be made acquainted with the best way Russia executes what it calls its “particular army operation”. 

Western army analysts forecast it can due to this fact be a number of months earlier than they see motion.

Reservists will probably be financially incentivised and be paid like full-time serving skilled troopers who make way more cash than the typical Russian wage. Which will make the proposition extra engaging for some males within the provinces the place wages are historically decrease than in huge cities.

Skilled troopers generally known as ‘kontraktniki’ who’re presently serving within the armed forces could have their contracts robotically prolonged till the authorities resolve to finish the interval of short-term mobilisation. In different phrases, it simply grew to become a lot more durable for serving skilled troopers to stop.

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A day earlier, the Russian parliament permitted a invoice to toughen punishments for crimes reminiscent of desertion, injury to army property and insubordination if they’re dedicated throughout army mobilisation or fight conditions. In response to a duplicate of the laws, seen by Reuters, voluntary give up would turn out to be a criminal offense for Russian army personnel punishable by 10 years in jail.

What does Putin’s transfer inform us in regards to the battle in Ukraine?

Putin’s announcement got here solely a day after it was introduced that “referendums” on becoming a member of Russia will start on Friday within the Russian-occupied areas of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhya. 

“The concept right here is that if these territories be a part of the Russian Federation, any assaults upon them would then be thought-about as assaults on Russia,” Dr Marina Miron, from the Defence Research Division of the King’s Faculty London, instructed Euronews.

“So, it’s logical to start out this partial mobilisation now, particularly in gentle of what occurred in Kharkiv Oblast and which served as a catalyst for this fast flip in occasions,” Dr Miron added, referring to Kyiv’s counteroffensive within the north-east of the nation, the place it has reclaimed 8,000 sq. kilometres of territory. 

“It’s advised that the quantity was fastidiously calculated and solely the quantity wanted to guard these territories is being mobilised,” stated Dr Miron.

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The partial mobilisation can also be aimed toward placing the marketing campaign in Ukraine on the centre of the Russian public’s consideration and making individuals care in regards to the Russian trigger, she claimed.

“The Kremlin has been making an attempt to domesticate the nationwide spirit for a few years now and following this logic, this mobilisation is perceived as a technique to recruit extra individuals to defend the homeland,”  Dr Miron stated. 

“It isn’t in regards to the battle in Ukraine; it’s about defending Russia and territories belonging to Russia, nevertheless far-fetched which may appear. 

“The battle in Ukraine isn’t a battle between Russia and Ukraine, however a battle between Russia and ‘the collective West’, within the Kremlin’s eyes. 

“So, this narrative is used to justify such mobilisation within the first place.”

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Nikolay Petrov, a senior analysis fellow inside the Russia and Eurasia programme at London’s Chatham Home, agrees. 

“Putin’s speech was an try to show the imperialist battle right into a patriotic battle” after practically seven months of preventing, he stated.

He thinks the upcoming “referendums” have the identical goal, to compensate for a faltering marketing campaign in Ukraine. 

“The surprising hasty referendums within the occupied territories of Ukraine are an try by the Kremlin to seize these territories politically, because it was unable to take action militarily,” Petrov stated.

Alternatively, Petrov additionally believes the partial mobilisation may need been referred to as to appease the issues of political allies.

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“Putin’s latest conferences with the leaders of China, India and different non-Western international locations, who’ve publicly voiced their dissatisfaction with the protracted battle and referred to as for its ending, might have additionally performed a task,” Petrov stated.

How ready are Russia’s reservists?

In a televised speech to the nation on Wednesday, Putin stated the “partial mobilisation” includes “solely residents who’re presently within the reserve will probably be topic to conscription, and above all, those that served within the armed forces have a sure army speciality and related expertise”.

In response to Shoigu, solely these with related fight and repair expertise will probably be mobilised. The reservists answering to this description are about 25 million individuals, however solely round 1% will probably be mobilised, claimed Shoigu.

“The query is: do all these standards must be fulfilled or is it sufficient to fulfil only one?” Dr Miron requested. “Once more, regardless of the seemingly clear standards, this has induced numerous concern amongst potential candidates. It ought to be famous that Russia has its personal ‘Vietnam syndrome’ after the Soviet enterprise in Afghanistan, so no matter is to occur, the Kremlin must skillfully design its informational marketing campaign to keep away from potential backlash on a bigger scale.”

There can also be points with the preparedness of reservists.

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In response to the Washington-based suppose tank the Institute for the Research of Struggle (ISW), “the Russian reserve has over two million former conscripts and contract servicemen on paper, however few are actively skilled or ready for battle”.

ISW writes that, traditionally, “solely 10 per cent of reservists obtain refresher coaching after finishing their preliminary time period of service”, including that Russia lacks the executive and monetary capability to coach reservists on an ongoing foundation.

What has been the response in Russia?

The announcement has triggered protests in Russia, the place some are more and more fatigued by what within the nation remains to be generally known as the “particular army operation” in Ukraine.

Russian media reported a spike in demand for airplane tickets shortly after Putin’s televised speech on Wednesday. 

On the identical day, jailed dissident and opposition chief Alexei Navalny accused Putin of sending extra Russians to their deaths.

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“It’s clear that the felony battle is getting worse, deepening, and Putin is making an attempt to contain as many individuals as potential on this,” Navalny stated in a video message from jail recorded and printed by his legal professionals. “He desires to smear a whole bunch of 1000’s of individuals on this blood,” Navalny stated.

On Wednesday, the Youth Democratic opposition motion “Vesna” referred to as for nationwide protests. 

“Hundreds of Russian males — our fathers, brothers and husbands — will probably be thrown into the meat grinder of the battle. What’s going to they be dying for? What’s going to moms and kids be crying for?” the group stated.

Avtozak, a Russian group that screens protests, reported demonstrations by dozens of individuals in cities, together with Ulan-Ude and Tomsk in Siberia, and Khabarovsk within the Far East, with some protesters being arrested by authorities.

“The emotions in direction of this choice have been combined and there have been fairly a number of cases of opposition from a number of media retailers, such because the St. Petersburg-based information web site Bumaga, which claimed in its Telegram channel that the frequency of the search time period ‘how you can break your arm’ had spiked amongst Google customers from Russia,” Dr Miron stated.

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“Given the protests that passed off throughout Russia, it’s to imagine that the inhabitants isn’t in favour of this new measure. Nonetheless, the official media is making an attempt to downplay this new choice, therefore, there will probably be an try to pacify the inhabitants section that’s in opposition to this partial mobilisation,” she added. “There will probably be a have to act on the knowledge entrance to forestall a whole polarisation of the Russian inhabitants. The state of affairs is kind of difficult as supporting Russia’s ‘particular army operation’ in Ukraine is one factor, however it’s fairly one other factor when there’s a risk of being drafted to actively contribute.”

It’s unclear if the dimensions of the protests will develop within the coming days, particularly contemplating that the Kremlin nonetheless harshly punishes those that criticise the army and Russia’s battle in Ukraine. 

“The Kremlin has sharply tightened laws within the spirit of Stalin’s time, which is able to imply extreme penalties for anybody evading mobilisation, refusing to take part within the battle and desertion,” Petrov stated.

“The repressive nature of the regime inevitably will increase. Altogether, radically altering the sport and elevating the stakes seems to be like a manifestation of Putin’s weak spot somewhat than power.”

Dr Miron additionally stated that there will probably be elevated stress on reservists to answer the decision to arms.

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“There will probably be numerous stress exercised upon those that refuse to mobilise or can’t accredit their incapacity to serve for no matter purpose,” she stated.

“It’s to imagine that those that aren’t ‘patriotic’ sufficient will attempt to make their case somewhat than avoiding response or flat-out refusing service. In lots of circumstances, individuals must select the smaller evil, no matter it may be of their explicit state of affairs. Given the present financial state of affairs, there’s a likelihood that these from poorer areas of the Russian Federation will take up this chance to earn some cash,” she stated.

If this does not work, what subsequent?

Orysia Lutsevych, head and analysis fellow on the Chatham Home’s Ukraine Discussion board, believes the partial mobilisation received’t be sufficient to show the tide of the battle and provides Russian troops the higher hand.

“Partial mobilisation is not going to have a decisive influence on the battlefield as a result of new recruits are untrained and never combat-ready,” she stated, including that she doesn’t see any of the initiatives pushed by the Kremlin as prone to succeed.

“Russian inner army infrastructure can hardly help common mobilisation because it was downgraded by latest ‘reforms’. The unlawful ‘referendums’ is not going to be recognised by Ukraine nor the West. It is not going to change the army marketing campaign the place Ukraine reserves the fitting to assault and ultimately liberate the territory. We’re prone to see extra sanctions in response to this transfer,” Lutsevych stated.

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“​​It’s fairly unbelievable that this mobilisation doesn’t work,” stated Dr Miron, mentioning that 300,000 reservists are “roughly the quantity that the Russian floor forces have on lively responsibility”. She added that whereas not everybody may help the marketing campaign in Ukraine, many may be within the monetary positive aspects concerned within the mobilisation.

However what’s subsequent for Russia will rely upon the results of this partial mobilisation, Dr Miron added.

“Whereas this doc [Wednesday’s decree] doesn’t miss the chance to escalate mobilisation, it stays to be seen what number of will probably be mobilised and if these numbers are sufficient to achieve the ‘objectives of the army operation’,” she stated.

“A full mobilisation would entail a declaration of battle. Whereas not fairly inconceivable, proper now it could appear that that is probably the most applicable possibility so as to not trigger an excessive amount of public unrest whereas bolstering the army capabilities on the entrance.

“As well as, if Luhansk and Donetsk and probably others be a part of the Russian Federation, there will probably be a necessity for everlasting presence to make sure that these territories may be defended. And the expertise in Izium has proven that Russia didn’t have sufficient manpower. So, in essence, it’s a technique to keep away from additional territorial losses as nicely.”

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Dr Luke March, Professor in Soviet and Put up-Soviet Politics and Director of Undergraduate Educating for Politics and Worldwide Relations on the College of Edinburgh, agrees that Putin will stir away from calling the battle in Ukraine a battle.

“Finally Putin doesn’t must do something and may attempt to fake [the conflict] is one thing apart from it’s – this will probably be preferable to admitting overtly that it’s a battle requiring full mobilisation, which runs the robust danger of individuals feeling deceived and inciting opposition,” Dr March stated. 

“If Western help doesn’t falter over a tough winter, and arms provides proceed, the steadiness of forces will more and more favour Ukraine, and the home issues for Putin will begin to develop a lot bigger,” Dr March added.

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Mexico City seeks to downplay the case of a serial killer suspect who kept women's bones in his room

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Mexico City seeks to downplay the case of a serial killer suspect who kept women's bones in his room

Mexico City prosecutors sought Thursday to downplay the case of a suspected serial killer who kept women’s bones and a saw in his room, and apparently targeted women over the course of more than a decade.

The city’s head prosecutor said the remains of six women were found in the suspect’s rented room, “not 20 as some unfounded reports have suggested.”

POLICE FIND 7 BODIES, 5 OF THEM DECAPITATED AND 1 DISMEMBERED, IN MEXICO’S FIFTH LARGEST CITY

City prosecutor Ulises Lara stressed that only three of his crimes occurred during the present administration, which took office in late 2018. He said the others apparently occurred in 2012, 2015 and 2018, meaning the killer went uncaught for at least 12 years.

Lara slammed reports that all the crimes took place in 2023 and 2024 — during the term of ex-Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, who is now running for president — as “absolutely false and unfounded.”

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Mexico City prosecutors are seeking to downplay the case of a suspected serial killer who kept women’s bones and a saw in his room. (Fox News)

And Lara claimed the killer was essentially unstoppable because “he showed no signs of violent or aggressive behavior in his daily life.”

Lara did not specify the nature of the remains found in a search of the suspect’s rented rooms last week, but local media reported they were skulls. Under Mexican law, the suspect can only be identified by his first name, “Miguel.” Local media reported he worked as a chemist.

Investigators also found blood stains, bones, a saw, cellphones and missing women’s ID cards, as well as other “biological material” in the rooms. Lara said five of the ID cards belonged to women who have been located alive, but did not say how many belonged to women who are still missing or among the dead.

Last week, Lara said investigators also found “a series of notebooks that may well be narrations of the acts that Miguel carried out against his victims.”

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Lara rejected criticisms that Mexico City authorities do little to investigate the cases of missing women until their bodies pile up, saying the number of reported women’s killings have declined.

But the suspect in this case wasn’t caught until he broke into a neighbor’s apartment to kill his seventh victim last week, was interrupted and left a surviving witness.

According to prosecutors, the suspect apparently waited for a woman to briefly leave her apartment last week and then rushed in and sexually abused and strangled her 17-year-old daughter.

The mother returned and saw him leaving, but he slashed her in the neck and fled. The mother survived but her daughter did not.

Because the suspect lived near the scene of the crime, he was quickly identified and caught.

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The suspect has been held over for trial on charges of murder and attempted murder, both related to his latest victims.

Without proper funding, training or professionalism, prosecutors in Mexico’s capital have routinely failed to stop killers until the bodies pile up so high they are almost unavoidable.

In 2021, a serial killer in a Mexico City suburb was only caught after years of alleged crimes — 19 bodies were found hacked up and buried at his house — because of the identity of the final dismembered victim: the wife of a police commander.

In 2018, a serial killer in Mexico City responsible for the deaths of at least 10 women was caught only after he was found pushing a dismembered body down the street in a baby carriage. He dumped most of the bodies of his victims in vacant lots.

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Hamas ‘serious’ about captives’ release but not without Gaza ceasefire

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Hamas ‘serious’ about captives’ release but not without Gaza ceasefire

Palestinian group Hamas has said it remains committed to achieving an agreement with Israel to end the war on Gaza, but only if its conditions including a lasting ceasefire are met.

Khalil al-Hayya, a member of the group’s political bureau, said that Hamas “is serious about releasing Israeli captives within the framework of an agreement” that also ensures the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.

He told Al Jazeera Arabic in a televised interview on Thursday that Hamas will not accept a truce without a permanent ceasefire and a complete halt of Israel’s assault on the Gaza Strip, which has killed more than 34,000 people – mainly women and children – since the current conflict started in October.

An “unhindered return” of Palestinians across the besieged enclave to their homes, along with the reconstruction of Gaza and “an end to the crippling siege” imposed on it were among the four conditions that al-Hayya reiterated.

Hamas had submitted its response to a United States amendment on April 13 and is still waiting for a reply from Israel and the mediating parties, he said.

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Talks on a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas have been in limbo with the two sides showing few signs that they are ready to compromise on their demands, but international mediators – Qatar, the United States and Egypt – have been engaged in intense behind-the-scenes talks to secure a deal.

Top Israeli officials have repeatedly called Hamas’s demands “delusional” and have said an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip would amount to losing the war.

Egypt has asked for a follow-up meeting with Israel in renewed efforts to mediate a deal, two Egyptian security sources told the Reuters news agency.

Egyptian, Israeli and US officials reportedly held in-person and remote meetings on Wednesday that sought concessions to break the deadlock in the months-long negotiations, and a meeting between Egyptian and Israeli officials is expected to take place on Friday in Cairo.

The US and 17 other countries issued an appeal for Hamas to release captives as a pathway to end the crisis in Gaza.

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“We call for the immediate release of all hostages held by Hamas in Gaza now for over 200 days,” read the statement on Thursday by the leaders of Argentina, Austria, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Colombia, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Spain, Thailand and the United Kingdom.

It said that the “deal on the table to release the hostages would bring an immediate and prolonged ceasefire in Gaza, that would facilitate a surge of additional necessary humanitarian assistance to be delivered throughout Gaza, and lead to the credible end of hostilities”.

Reporting from Washington, DC, Al Jazeera’s Mike Hanna pointed out that the statement appears to be trying to step up pressure on Hamas amid ongoing attempts at negotiation.

“There’s no mention whatsoever of any concomitant release of Palestinian prisoners being held in Israel by the Israeli government, but this is stepping up pressure on Hamas, it would appear, as these negotiations grind forward,” he said.

The renewed effort to continue the talks is shaping up as Israel has significantly increased its military activities across the enclave and is proceeding with plans for a ground invasion of Rafah in the south, where some 1.5 million displaced Palestinians are taking shelter.

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The humanitarian situation in Rafah – bordering Egypt – and across Gaza remains dire, with the United Nations and others repeatedly stressing the need for Israel to allow more aid in.

Eleven-year-old Husam is one of more than 600,000 children who have sought refuge in Rafah which was designated a “safe zone” even as the Israeli military continues to pound it from the air in preparation for a ground assault.

“We’re afraid people will resort to killing each other for food,” he told Al Jazeera.

“A person’s psyche wears out with fear. It’s a slow death.”

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Video: ‘We’re Aware of the Location’: Aid Groups in Gaza Coordinated With I.D.F. but Still Came Under Fire

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Video: ‘We’re Aware of the Location’: Aid Groups in Gaza Coordinated With I.D.F. but Still Came Under Fire

[MUSIC PLAYING] On April 1, an Israeli drone targeted a convoy of white cars, killing seven World Central Kitchen workers. The group, based in Washington, D.C., had coordinated the convoy’s route with the Israel Defense Forces, or I.D.F. “We were doing the right protocols. We were engaging with the I.D.F. in the way we all should be doing. Like every minute, everybody knew where everybody was.” This process is called deconfliction, a wartime safety system aid groups use around the world to help combatants compile a list of humanitarian locations in order to avoid accidental attacks. – [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] More than 200 aid workers have been killed in the war in Gaza, according to the United Nations. In the case of the World Central Kitchen, or W.C.K., the I.D.F. called the strike a grave mistake that can happen when fighting an enemy that embeds in the civilian population. “The W.C.K. coordinated everything correctly with the I.D.F. in advance. This operational misidentification and misclassification was the result of internal failures.” But these internal failures were not new. Using visual evidence and internal communications obtained by The Times, we examined strikes on six aid group operations that came under Israeli fire despite using the I.D.F.’s deconfliction system. These humanitarian organizations have a direct line to the Israeli military, and come from Western countries, including Israel’s strongest allies. Some of their operations were clearly marked. “Our flag. We identify it.” Or located in a special area Israel says is safe for civilians. It’s not clear whether the I.D.F. failed to alert their targeting teams about the presence of civilians, or if they decided eliminating a target was more important. But the pattern of attacks shows that in Israel’s battle against Hamas, not even the places with every available avenue of protection are safe from I.D.F. strikes. Israel has said that it has deconflicted thousands of humanitarian convoys successfully. In response to questions from The Times, the I.D.F. said it has been targeting military targets in order to dismantle Hamas, but is committed to all international legal obligations, and has put in place detailed regulations for dealing with sensitive sites. Weeks before the World Central Kitchen strike, a logistics coordinator for another American aid group called ANERA returned home after distributing supplies. Mousa Shawa was still wearing his ANERA vest when an Israeli strike hit the house, killing him; his 6-year-old son, Kareem; and several neighbors. – [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] Mousa had worked at ANERA for 13 years and felt grateful to have a job that would keep his family safe, his wife, Dua, told The Times. – [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] ANERA shared emails with The Times showing they’d repeatedly sent the I.D.F. coordinates and photos of their staff shelters, including the two-story residential building where Mousa’s family and others had been living since the war began. Israeli officials confirmed the location was being processed in their system. On March 4, in response to a request from the I.D.F., ANERA sent this email to ensure their warehouses and shelters, including Mousa’s, were still registered in Israel’s deconfliction system. But just four days later, the house was blown apart. Visual evidence shows it was a surgical strike in a dense cluster of houses. All were left essentially untouched, but one, which had only the top floor destroyed. Munitions experts told The Times this kind of targeted damage points to a precision Israeli air-dropped bomb. – [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] In a statement to The Times, the I.D.F. said it targeted a Hamas terrorist who participated in the October 7 attack, and expects military investigators to examine the strike. ANERA said they’ve received, quote, “No information about who or what may have been targeted, or why,” and want an independent investigation into how a location repeatedly deconflicted with the I.D.F. came under attack. Before the strike on Mousa’s house, Doctors Without Borders said two staff shelters registered with Israel’s deconfliction system came under fire without warning or official explanation. “We’ve seen tracers going towards the sea.” At this shelter on January 8, the aid group said a projectile was fired through the building, killing a 5-year-old girl. – [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] Photographs show the remnants of an Israeli tank shell lying outside. In February at a different Doctors Without Borders staff shelter, two family members were killed when incoming fire set off an explosion. Seven others, mostly women and children, were injured. Visuals of the aftermath show a large Doctors Without Borders flag clearly marked the building. The entry point of the munition and the damage left behind suggests a medium- to large-caliber weapon, experts said. According to the aid group, it was an Israeli tank shell. The I.D.F. previously told British broadcaster Sky News they fired because they had identified, quote, “Terror activity at the building.” In a statement to The Times, the I.D.F. denied striking the first shelter on January 8 and said the second incident will be reviewed by military investigators. Doctors Without Borders refuted any allegations of terror activity in their facilities, and said the attacks on civilian spaces show that nowhere in Gaza is safe. What went wrong in the deconfliction system is still not clear to the aid group. “This pattern of attacks is either intentional or indicative of reckless incompetence.” The very same questions would be raised in the British Parliament after another strike, which was examined by The Times. On the morning of January 18, this building was rocked by a giant explosion. A bomb landed on the wall around the compound, which was being used to house medical staff from the International Rescue Committee, based in the U.S., and the U.K. group Medical Aid for Palestinians, whose logo is visible on bedding and luggage in the wreckage. Several people were injured. Six medical workers were withdrawn from Gaza. Text messages between aid staff and an I.D.F. official reviewed by The Times show that a month before the attack, the Israeli military was aware of the compound’s location. When the aid worker asks, “So we can bring them to this chalet? It is still safe?” The I.D.F. response is, “Yes.” The compound had two additional layers of protection. British officials, The Times confirmed, used high-level diplomatic channels to ensure the compound was deconflicted. And it was located in the neighborhood that Israel has repeatedly designated as the humanitarian zone, safe for civilians. In a U.N. report reviewed by The Times, investigators indicated the crater and munition debris most likely point to an MK 83, which is a 1,000-pound bomb made in the U.S. “Strikes still took place. So —” British lawmakers demanded answers. “What investigation is being conducted? What has been the response of the I.D.F. to this? Has H.M.G. seen the targeting permissions for that airstrike?” After weeks of high-level pressure — “It was raised by the foreign secretary in his meetings in Israel last week.” Israel provided six different, and often conflicting, explanations, according to the aid groups. Sometimes Israel said they were “not operating in that area.” Other times, they claimed their bomb was attempting to hit a target adjacent to the compound. They also said what struck the compound wasn’t actually a bomb, but a “piece of aircraft fuselage.” The I.D.F. told The Times they did not strike the location at all on January 18. After the strike on the World Central Kitchen convoy, which unleashed global outrage, Israel’s response was much more swift and clear. Israeli officials launched a new humanitarian coordination cell, fired commanders and opened new aid access points. But after months of Israel’s war against Hamas — – [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] questions remain about to what extent the I.D.F. will hold their fire in places where aid workers or civilians are present.

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