With just one game left in the 2024-2025 men’s college basketball regular season, let’s take a look at the possible seeding scenarios for the Virginia Cavaliers in next week’s ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament in Charlotte.

When we did this exercise last year, Virginia’s situation was quite simple. The Cavaliers had already clinched a double-bye in the ACC Tournament and could only finish as either the No. 3 seed or the No. 4 seed and only two other teams mattered for potential tiebreaker scenarios. Well, this year, not only are the Hoos nowhere near the double-bye, but their seeding scenarios for the ACC Tournament are very, very complicated.

We’re going to try to simplify things a bit and give you all some clarity on where Virginia is likely to end up and what other ACC teams UVA fans should be rooting for and against on Saturday while they are waiting to watch the Cavaliers’ regular season finale at Syracuse at 8pm.

First, let’s take a look at the current standings, with each team assigned a seed based on their conference record and applying relevant tiebreaking procedures as if the ACC Tournament started today.

1. Duke (18-1)
2. Louisville (17-2)
3. Clemson (17-2)
4. North Carolina (13-6)
5. SMU (13-6)
6. Wake Forest (12-7)
7. Stanford (11-8)
8. Georgia Tech (10-9)
9. Virginia (8-11)
10. Virginia Tech (8-11)
11. Florida State (7-12)
12. Notre Dame (7-12)
13. Pittsburgh (7-12)
14. Syracuse (6-13)
15. California (6-13)
16. NC State (5-14)
17. Boston College (4-15)
18. Miami (2-17)

Let’s also take a look at what the bracket would look like for the ACC Tournament if it started today (March 6).

As things currently stand, Virginia is tied for ninth place with in-state rival Virginia Tech at 8-11 in ACC play and the two teams split the regular season series against each other. If the season ended today, the Cavaliers would win the tiebreaker over the Hokies due to having a win over a higher-seeded ACC team (Wake Forest) and would get the No. 9 seed and, more importantly, the final first round bye in the ACC tournament. If both teams win on Saturday, they would still be tied for ninth place, but Virginia Tech would win the tiebreaker for the No. 9 seed as the Hokies would have the better win, having knocked off Clemson in that scenario.

So the simplest way forward for Virginia is to win at Syracuse on Saturday night and root for a Virginia Tech loss at Clemson (6pm ET on Saturday). If that happens, UVA gets the No. 9 seed. If both Virginia and Virginia Tech win, the Hokies get the No. 9 seed and the Cavaliers get the No. 10 seed.

That part is fairly straightforward and easy to keep up with. Where things get messy is the scenario where Virginia loses at Syracuse on Saturday, as that brings into the equation three other teams – Pittsburgh, Florida State, and Notre Dame – who could potentially finish tied with Virginia (and potentially Virginia Tech) in the standings, creating seemingly endless permutations of tiebreakers featuring two, three, four, or even five total teams.

Here is who each of those teams are playing on the final day of the regular season:
4pm: SMU at Florida State (ESPNU)
4pm: California at Notre Dame (ACC Network)
6pm: Virginia Tech at Clemson (ESPNU)
6pm: Boston College at Pittsburgh (ACC Network)
8pm: Virginia at Syracuse (ACC Network)

Now, ordinarily, we would go through each of these scenarios and look at every possible combination of outcomes for each of those five games to determine UVA’s resulting seed in each of those scenarios. There are 22 unique scenarios based strictly on the outcomes the four non-Virginia games listed above (assuming a UVA loss). But the problem is, there are scenarios where the first few tiebreaking procedures (head-to-head, record against the group of tied teams) do not completely break the ties and you then have to move to record against the highest-seeded teams in the ACC. Since we do not know what the final pecking order of the ACC standings will look like (even Duke could finish as low as the No. 3 seed), that means there are hundreds of permutations of scenarios for where Virginia could finish in the final standings.

So, rather than exploring those endless possibilities, we’re going to summarize Virginia’s position going into the final day of the regular season:

Scenario 1: Virginia beats Syracuse, Virginia Tech loses to Clemson

UVA finishes with a 9-11 ACC record and sits alone in ninth place in the final standings.

Outcome: Virginia clinches the No. 9 seed and the final first round bye in the ACC Tournament with no tiebreakers required.

Scenario 2: Virginia beats Syracuse, Virginia Tech beats Clemson

Virginia and Virginia Tech remain tied for ninth place with equivalent 9-11 records. Since the Hoos and Hokies split their regular season series, the next tiebreaker is record against the highest-seeded common opponent in the ACC. Virginia Tech would win that tiebreaker in this scenario due to its win over Clemson.

Outcome: Virginia Tech clinches the No. 9 seed, while Virginia gets the No. 10 seed in the ACC Tournament.

If Virginia loses to Syracuse, several scenarios regarding Virginia Tech (if the Hokies lose) and Pittsburgh, Florida State, and Notre Dame (if any/all of them win) come into play. Virginia went 1-1 against Virginia Tech and beat Pittsburgh and Florida State head-to-head and lost to Notre Dame. So should the Cavaliers lose at Syracuse, it’s still in UVA’s best interest for each of those other teams to lose, but the most advantageous scenarios for Virginia involve losses by Virginia Tech and Notre Dame.

As far as we can tell, Virginia can fall no lower than the No. 11 seed, while the ceiling for the Cavaliers remains the No. 9 seed and picking up that bye into Wednesday’s second round at the ACC Tournament.

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The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is one of the most high-profile experiments in Trump’s second administration. With billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk at the helm, DOGE has been tasked with slashing government waste and reducing bureaucratic staffing levels. While DOGE’s efforts have been bold and aggressive out of the gate, its reforms are also sparking controversy and creating uncertainty due to their unselective nature. In contrast, Virginia has pursued a more methodical approach to reducing red tape, saving taxpayers billions while avoiding the turbulence that accompanies indiscriminatory spending cuts.

Unlike past government reform efforts that tend to take a more incremental approach, DOGE has embraced what Elon Musk calls a “radical” strategy to shrink the federal bureaucracy. It is auditing agency spending, cancelling grants, and rescinding federal contracts. At the same time, DOGE has pursued deep agency budget cuts, offered a buy-out package to federal employees and imposed significant reductions in staffing at departments like the U.S. Agency for International Development.

DOGE is also sparking a wave of state-level government efficiency reforms. New Hampshire’s new Commission on Government Efficiency will make recommendations on cutting state spending and streamlining government operations. Oklahoma’s new Division of Government Efficiency (DOGE-OK) will review agency spending to ensure it aligns with legislative intent and benefits Oklahoma taxpayers.

While these initiatives are just getting started, Virginia has already spent years implementing its own regulatory efficiency model. In fact, regulatory reform has been a consistent theme across the two most recent Virginia governors. Under former Gov. Ralph Northam, the state launched a regulatory reduction pilot program in 2018, which focused on cutting unnecessary occupational licensing requirements. Then, under Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Virginia created the Office of Regulatory Management (ORM) in 2022, a new centralized regulatory oversight office.

While both the federal DOGE and Virginia’s ORM aim to improve government efficiency, their approaches have some sharp differences. DOGE has often focused its cuts on politically controversial programs, such as those related to diversity, equity, and inclusion, foreign aid, climate initiatives, and public health grants. In contrast, ORM has pursued a more orderly, bipartisan approach, taking a regulatory reform that began under a Democratic governor and expanding it under a Republican one.

Virginia’s ORM was created with a clear mission to reduce counterproductive red tape while ensuring regulations remain effective and justified. A key component of this effort has been a goal to cut 25 percent of regulatory requirements across state agencies. ORM has also worked to streamline permitting processes through the creation of a new online permit tracking system.

To guarantee that regulations are economically sound, ORM enforces new cost-benefit analysis requirements, forcing agencies to demonstrate that proposed rules can justify their costs. In contrast to DOGE, ORM takes a more evidence-based approach, subjecting regulations to analysis requirements that emphasize whether rules solve a real problem and do so at a reasonable cost.

In a new paper for the Virginia Institute for Public Policy, I explain how Virginia’s ORM-driven regulatory reforms have already saved the state an estimated $1.2 billion per year. Building Code reforms alone have saved $723 million, reducing the cost of constructing a new home by $24,000. Businesses have benefited from 85 percent faster licensing approvals at the Department of Professional and Occupational Regulation. DPOR averaged 33 business days to process licensing applications, which was reduced to just five business days, yielding $179 million per year in additional earnings potential.

Improvements to stormwater management regulations have resulted in a yearly $124 million in savings, while a new general permit process at the Virginia Marine Resources Commission has cut costs by $47 million. Even election processes have seen cost reductions, with the elimination of witness signature requirements for absentee ballots generating $7.1 million in annual savings.

Despite ORM’s achievements, the office remains vulnerable. Since most of its reforms were implemented through executive order, the next governor could undo them overnight. If Virginia wants to make sure its regulatory reforms last, the state legislature should make ORM permanent. Codifying ORM into law would provide much-needed stability for businesses and guarantee that the progress made in the last few years is not easily reversed.

Regulatory reform tends to work best when it is based on a consensus. That usually means data-driven and bipartisan. While DOGE is undoubtedly making progress with its chainsaw approach to the federal budget, the ultimate success of its reforms is still uncertain. On the other hand, Virginia has already proven that smarter government is possible and is actively saving taxpayers billions. As other states look for a model for government efficiency, they should be looking to Virginia in addition to DOGE.

2025 Women’s NCAA Swimming and Diving Championships

The official psych sheets for women’s NCAAs came out today, and Virginia is projected to win their 5th straight NCAA title by more than 100 points. UVA is seeded to score 534 points with Texas (390.5) and Tennessee (372.5) battling it out for 2nd with less than 20 points separating them.

Stanford is expected to move up into 4th, improving from their 5th place finish last year, and Florida is falling out of the top three coming in at 5th. Michigan (6th) and Cal (9th) are also projected to improve their placements from last year, and end up in the top 10 for the first time since 2022.

These projections do not include the women’s diving events, which could make an impact in both directions moving teams up or down. The diving invites are expected to be released on Thursday, March 13th.

Thank you to Andrew Mering for compiling this information.

Scored Psych Sheet

Points by Event & Day

Virginia is seeded to score the most points every day and earn a perfect 200 relay points by winning every relay, with Texas (200 medley), Tennessee (800 free), Louisville (200 free), Florida (400 medley), and Michigan (400 free) looking to split the 2nd place points.

Stanford appears to have a very strong day two, looking to score 81 points, which will potentially have them in 3rd after these events. They are projected to struggle slightly on day three, only putting up 84 points which will allow Tennessee (124) to pass them and Florida (199) to close the gap.

Projected Scores by Athlete

Note: These are only the athletes who are projected to score in at least one of their individual events.

Gretchen Walsh is the only swimmer projected to have a perfect meet scoring 60 points by winning all three of her events, and there are no swimmers who are seeded to win two individuals and finish 2nd in one.

After that there are three women who are seeded to win one event and place 2nd in the other two. Bella Sims from Florida is seeded to win the 100 backstroke and finish 2nd in the 500 freestyle and 200 backstroke. Sims is the reigning champion in the 200 and 500 freestyle events, though she opted for the 200 back this year instead.

Torri Huske is looking at the same breakdown with a win in the 200 IM, and 2nd place finishes in the 100 fly and 100 free, both behind Gretchen Walsh. Huske has never won an event at the NCAA Championships, so a win in the 200 IM would be uncharted territory for her.

Finally, Alex Walsh is seeded 1st in the 100 breast, 2nd in the 200 IM, and 2nd in the 200 fly. Walsh is the NCAA record holder in the 200 fly, but she has not been that fast this season and Emma Sticklen was only one-hundredth off her time at SECs

While Gretchen Walsh is the only swimmer who is projected to win three events, she is not the only swimmer projected to win all of their events. Texas freshman Jillian Cox comes in as the top seed in the women’s 500 free and 1650 free, and these are her only two events. She did not earn a qualification in the women’s 200 freestyle, coming in tied for 40th, and elected not to swim it.

View the Full Scored Sheet Here