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How an economist optimises their morning routine

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How an economist optimises their morning routine

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For some, headlines such as “How this successful CEO starts their morning” offer hope. What if it took only a few tweaks to one’s daily schedule to achieve power, riches and smugness? For others this corner of the internet offers a warning. The price of success seems to be a 4am wake time followed by a glug of a celery smoothie while pumping weights. If that is what it takes to “win the day”, I’ll accept the loss.

What might an economist’s morning routine look like? I am not suggesting that their fresh-faced glow is something to aspire to. (I have attended enough economics conferences to confirm that this is not the median look.) I am suggesting that they think carefully about data, as well as optimisation under constraints.

So imagine an economist staring at their computer, trying to map out the best possible start to the day. First, they must work out what exactly they are optimising for. “Utility” is broad enough to capture most things, including the possibility of divorce if the optimal routine mysteriously lacks any childcare responsibilities. But it can be difficult to measure, so they pick productivity instead.

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Next, they must decide whose preferences will be taken into account. The economist Emily Oster offers work sheets to help families hash out their mission statement and hourly schedule. But that all sounds a bit . . . collaborative. For simplicity, models often assume that households behave like a single individual, and this economist decides to model their household’s preferences as their own. Easy.

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Then comes the scheduling. A glance at survey data reveals that the average American wakes between 6am and 7am. Sounds reasonable. But on average, people with a college education sleep less than those with at most a high-school degree. Maybe higher earners are responding to stronger incentives to stay awake. Or perhaps joining their ranks means waking up early to get ahead.

Bar chart of Hours sleeping* relative to men with a bachelors degree or more showing People with more education tend to sleep less

Pinning down causality is tough, but not impossible. Several studies draw on the fact that people tend to sleep a bit less when sunset is later. By comparing people who experience sunsets at different times thanks to their location, they can identify the effects of sleep on productivity.

One study found that in America an extra hour of sleep a week raised average earnings by 5 per cent, which the authors said was about as much as half an extra year of education. Another found that in Germany half an hour more sleep each week was associated with around 2 per cent higher earnings among full-time workers, with the largest effects for mothers. The economist gratefully deletes the “3am wake up” entry in their timetable.

Admittedly, these effects are averages across location, and not guaranteed individual returns. Perhaps the economist could assume that they are the representative agent, and that everyone else will join their newfound habits. They impulsively type in “6.30am wake up”, and move on to the next row.

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The next task is to decide on optimal exercise. The economist decides to skip the agonising about causality; regular exercise is correlated with higher earnings, but then again, personal trainers don’t come cheap. Simpler to embrace the signalling element of the optimal morning routine, and simply pick whatever sport is most closely associated with being rich. Tennis and golf look good on this measure, but at 6am partners are hard to come by. Running it is.

Washing and grooming come next. (Please.) According to the American Time Use Survey in 2023, in women those with more education tend to spend more time on grooming, whereas for men the relationship is less obvious. By this point the economist has completely given up on strong evidence of causality, and simply writes “7.15am wash and other grooming in line with social norms”.

Then there is breakfast. The economist ambitiously writes down some options (conference-provided granola bar with juice; conference-provided cereal with long-life milk; conference-provided muffin with black coffee) but fails to find any randomised control trials to identify the best one. There is evidence that school breakfast programmes improve children’s outcomes, leading to the plain entry “have breakfast”. Next is the commute, and the work day begins.

The day after the economist formulates this grand plan, they sleep through their alarm and are woken by an unimpressed spouse reminding them that it is their turn to get the children ready for school. There is time for a shower but not breakfast. Revealed preferences suggest this is the utility maximising approach.

soumaya.keynes@ft.com

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Trump deputy campaign manager identified in Arlington National Cemetery dustup

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Trump deputy campaign manager identified in Arlington National Cemetery dustup

Republican presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump looks on during a wreath laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier at Arlington National Cemetery on August 26, 2024 in Arlington, Virginia.

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One of two staffers involved in the altercation at Arlington National Cemetery is a deputy campaign manager for Donald Trump’s reelection bid, NPR has learned. The former president insisted this week the incident did not happen, highlighting a growing disconnect between the messaging of the candidate and his campaign. NPR is identifying both staffers after the campaign’s conflicting responses to the incident last week outside Section 60 of the cemetery, where many casualties of Iraq and Afghanistan are buried.

The two staffers, according to a source with knowledge of the incident, are deputy campaign manager Justin Caporale and Michel Picard, a member of Trump’s advance team.

Caporale is a one time aide to former first lady Melania Trump who left the White House to work for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis before returning to the Trump campaign. He was also listed as the on-site contact and project manager for the Women for America First rally in Washington, D.C. on Jan. 6, 2021 where Trump urged the crowd to “stop the steal” before some of them stormed the U.S. Capitol.

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After Trump participated in a wreath laying ceremony on the third anniversary of the deadly bombing at Abbey Gate in Afghanistan that killed 13 U.S. service members, Trump visited Section 60 at the invitation of some family members and friends of the fallen soldiers.

ANC rules, that had been made clear to the Trump campaign in advance, say that only an official Arlington photographer can take pictures or film in Section 60. When an ANC employee tried to enforce the rules, she was verbally abused by the two Trump campaign operatives, according to a source with knowledge of the incident. Picard then pushed her out of the way according to two Pentagon officials.

The campaign’s conflicting messaging on the incident

After NPR first reported the altercation last week, campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said they were “prepared to release footage” of the incident, and attacked the Arlington employee as someone “clearly suffering from a mental health episode.” Cheung also said they were granted access to have a photographer present, and pointed to a statement from Gold Star family members that invited Trump to attend the ceremony.

The campaign also released a TikTok video that included video footage from Section 60, including a smiling Trump flashing a thumbs up with family members at the gravesites. But other tombstones are visible in the picture, and at least one family of a fallen Green Beret has confirmed they did not give permission for his grave to be filmed or used in a campaign ad.

The Army released a statement last Thursday acknowledging that a cemetery employee “was abruptly pushed aside” and the campaign was warned ahead of time of the prohibition against photography and political activities at Arlington. The Army said the cemetery employee tried to de-escalate the situation after she was pushed, in hopes of not upsetting the Gold Star families in attendance.

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The Army said a police report of the incident was filed, but that the employee had declined to press charges, and that the Army considered the matter closed, but added that “the ANC employee and her professionalism has been unfairly attacked.”

When NPR emailed both Caporale and Picard, Cheung responded, “I see you’ve been emailing some of our team members…As the Army has said, they consider this matter closed. President Trump was there to support the Gold Star families and honor the sacrifices their loved ones made.”

Cheung also included a social media post that shows a Biden campaign ad from 2020 that used images of the then-vice president at the cemetery in 2010.

Neither Cheung, Picard or Caporale responded to emailed requests for comment as of publication time. Reached by phone, Caporale referred questions to Cheung. The Trump campaign has still not followed through on its pledge to release video of the incident, despite repeated requests from NPR.

This week, Trump contradicted his own campaign with a post on Truth Social falsely calling the confrontation a “made up story by Comrade Kamala and her misinformation squad” that attacked Harris and Biden for not attending the private ceremony.

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In an interview on Sean Hannity’s radio show Tuesday, Trump reiterated the false assertion that nothing happened at the cemetery, questioning the motives of the unnamed employee and downplaying the accusations as attacks over “publicity.”

“Do you notice that the person represented now doesn’t want to talk, he doesn’t want to speak or talk?” Trump asked, mislabeling the employee as male. “The nice thing, the beautiful thing, was all the parents and relatives got together and they said ‘That’s a false story, it was totally false.’”

Former President Trump polls well among veterans, and has many vocal supporters with military ties. Some of the family members who invited him to Arlington also spoke at the Republican National Convention, bashing Biden and vocally endorsing Trump.

“Joe Biden may have forgotten that our children died, but we have not forgotten — Donald Trump has not forgotten,” said Cheryl Juels in Milwaukee at the RNC in July. Juels is the aunt of Sgt. Nicole Gee, one of the service members killed at Abbey Gate in 2021, during the chaotic U.S. withdrawal.

“Joe Biden owes the men and women that served in Afghanistan a debt of gratitude and an apology. Donald Trump loves this country and will never forget the sacrifice and bravery of our service members,” she added. “Join us in putting him back in the White House.”

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But those families do not have the power to suspend the rules at Arlington, where Section 60 is a fresh and on-going memorial to hundreds of recent war dead that, like the rest of the cemetery, is meant to be above politics.

The family of Master Sgt. Andrew Marckesano, a Green Beret who died by suicide after serving multiple combat tours and who is buried in Section 60, said according to their conversations with the cemetery, “the Trump campaign staffers did not adhere to the rules that were set in place for this visit.”

“We hope that those visiting this sacred site understand that there were real people who sacrificed for our freedom and that they are honored and respected and treated accordingly,” they said in a statement.

Jimmy McCain, a US Marine whose father was the late senator John McCain, also condemned the visit.

Trump has a history of controversial remarks about the military – he insulted Sen. John McCain for being a prisoner of war. He allegedly called dead soldiers “suckers” and “losers,” and recently stoked controversy for saying civilian Presidential Medal of Freedom recipients are much better than those who received the Medal of Honor — the highest military award in the country, often given posthumously.

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Trump’s conflicting messaging on the campaign trail

Former president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump takes part in a town hall moderated by Fox News broadcaster Sean Hannity at the New Holland Arena in Harrisburg, Pa. on Wednesday.

Former president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump takes part in a town hall moderated by Fox News broadcaster Sean Hannity at the New Holland Arena in Harrisburg, Pa. on Wednesday.

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The incident at Arlington National Cemetery is the latest example of conflict between the messaging efforts of Trump’s campaign and the candidate himself since President Biden ended his reelection bid and Vice President Harris became the Democratic nominee.

The campaign’s attempts to use the bombing anniversary to attack Harris over the Afghanistan withdrawal, complete with videos from Gold Star family members blaming the administration for the deaths of their loved ones, has been overshadowed by the politicization of Arlington and its hallowed status.

Last week, both Trump and campaign staff sought to clean up his stance on abortion rights and a ballot measure in his home state of Florida. Trump initially seemed to signal support for the proposed amendment that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution and posted that his second term would be “great for women and their reproductive rights.”

After backlash from anti-abortion advocates and a statement from the campaign saying that Trump did not say how he would vote on the referendum, Trump eventually told a Fox News reporter he would vote against it.

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Trump has also publicly questioned the rules, format and fairness for next week’s debate even as his campaign accepted the conditions and has worked behind the scenes to iron out details.

In a town hall conversation with Fox News host Sean Hannity Wednesday, Trump called debate host ABC News “dishonest” and implied without evidence that Harris would get questions in advance.

The debate will be a pivotal moment for Trump to try and regain momentum against Harris, who has erased Trump’s onetime commanding lead in the polls in the seven key battleground states.

In the six weeks since the switch up on the Democratic side of the race, an NPR review of Trump campaign speeches has found the former president struggling to pivot a campaign tailor-made to beat Biden into focus against his new opponent.

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Court puts block on sale of Raiffeisen bank’s Russian arm

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Court puts block on sale of Raiffeisen bank’s Russian arm

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A Russian court has blocked any potential sale of Raiffeisen Bank International’s subsidiary in Russia, a move that traps the largest western lender still operating inside the country. 

In a statement on Thursday evening, Vienna-headquartered RBI said a temporary injunction issued by a judge in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic coast had put a freeze on the transfer of any ownership of shares in its Russian arm. 

It is unclear how long the order will last. A preliminary hearing is scheduled for October 16. The injunction relates to a civil case brought by companies associated with the oligarch Oleg Deripaska, and a $2.2bn claim for “non-fulfilment of financial obligations”.

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“This complicates the sales process in which RBI seeks to sell a controlling stake in [its subsidiary] — and will inevitably lead to further delays,” the bank said. “RBI will attempt to reverse today’s court decision by all legal means.”

The move echoes other recent efforts by powerful Russian businessmen close to the Kremlin to use the country’s court system to exercise control over or seize western businesses that still operate there.

Germany’s Volkswagen had its assets frozen by a Russian court last year in the midst of its own attempted exit from the country. The measure was widely seen as a move to pressure the company into accepting an even lower price for its subsidiary.

RBI has so far operated with relative freedom in Russia, while coming under mounting pressure from western governments and regulators to scale back and divest its business there, even as its profits from it have surged. 

The Austrian bank’s executives have long insisted they have been caught in an intractable situation: on the one hand, threatened by western sanctions because of the role their bank continues to play in supporting the Russian economy, but also unable to advance sales talks because of punitive restrictions imposed by the Kremlin on ownership changes or dividend payments.

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Western security officials and politicians, meanwhile, have grown impatient with RBI, particularly as the Russian economy has continued to prove resilient in the face of western economic restrictions. 

In May the European Central Bank ordered RBI and other European lenders still operating in Russia to accelerate efforts to wind down their businesses there if they were unable to sell them.

RBI has previously said it was in discussions with two potential suitors in Russia interested in acquiring its subsidiary there, but that orders for it to scale back its activities have had a negative impact on negotiations.

RBI’s Russian subsidiary nevertheless contributed more than half of the banking group’s total profits in the first six months of this year. 

The bank has dramatically shrunk its Russian lending book and offers economically unattractive returns on savings locally, but it has continued to draw Russian depositors due to it being perceived as a safe western institution. Thanks to the high rates it earns on deposits at the Russian central bank, it has profited handsomely. 

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RBI said the court injunction was issued as part of a lawsuit brought by the Russian company Rasperia. Rasperia was formerly owned by Deripaska and continues to be associated with him, according to western security officials. 

Earlier this year Rasperia had attempted to swap its large stake in the Austrian construction company Strabag with RBI in return for control of RBI’s Russian subsidiary, a complicated arrangement intended to skirt western sanctions.

The transaction was called off under pressure from the US government. 

Rasperia on August 19 filed a complaint against Strabag and several other entities, including RBI’s affiliate in Lower Austria and Strabag shareholder and founder Hans Peter Haselsteiner, Kaliningrad court records show.

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🌏 Donald Trump x Elon Musk?

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🌏 Donald Trump x Elon Musk?

Good morning, Quartz readers!


HERE’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Donald Trump is close to collabing with Elon Musk. The presidential candidate wants the tech billionaire to lead a “government efficiency commission.” 

Google is gearing up for another antitrust trial. The first one was about its search dominance, and this one is about its ad tech dominance.

JetBlue actually made out pretty good during the CrowdStrike outage. The carrier raised its revenue guidance because it sopped up its competitors’ stranded passengers.

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Kroger promised to cut prices. Of course, it would have to be allowed to merge with Albertsons first.

Verizon is buying $20 billion in internet fiber. It’s acquiring Frontier Communication to boost its reach.


CHICAGO FED PREZ SAYS ECONOMIC VIBES ARE WHATEVER

Austan Goolsbee says that America is getting tantalizingly close to a so-called “soft landing” where the Federal Reserve has successfully raised interest rates to bring inflation down without destroying the economy.

From his presidential perch at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Goolsbee says that things are getting to the point that he and his colleagues can focus less on doomer vibes and more on data points that seem to be painting a rosier picture of the country’s fiscal well-being.

Quartz’s Rocio Fabbro chatted with Goolsbee about his outlook on where things go from here and whether the Fed is behind the curve on getting there.

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THAT’S A MIGHTY BIG MATTRESS

Family offices are gaining ground on hedge funds as the favorite safe havens of the wealthiest people’s wealth, says Deloitte.

The consultancy expects the fortunes stowed with the investment vehicles to reach $9 trillion by 2030 — nearly triple the amount from just a few years ago — as the upper-est crust grows tired of sharing its returns with riff-raff who don’t share a bloodline.

Quartz’s Madeline Fitzgerald explains not just what a family office is, but what the concept’s growing popularity means for the future of global finance.


MORE FROM QUARTZ

🦾 OpenAI hit 1 million paid business users for ChatGPT — with possible price increases coming

💰 Mark Cuban says Kamala Harris will definitely not tax unrealized capital gains

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📱New Mexico sued Snapchat for allowing ‘sextortion’ and sexual abuse targeting children

🎄 Half of Americans will start their holiday shopping even before Halloween

💉An Eli Lilly experiment could let insulin-using diabetes patients avoid 313 injections

🏈 These are the 10 wealthiest sports franchise owners in America


SURPRISING DISCOVERIES

A newly found antibody could be a beat-all COVID-19 vaccine. Scientists think they may have found a treatment that can recognize slippery changes in the virus’s spike protein.

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Cats might be hiding how much they like playing fetch. A survey of cat people says 41% of them “sometimes, frequently or always” bring back thrown objects.

Colonial Americans rioted over pine trees. The British Crown’s efforts at conservation were fairly unpopular.

A dye used for Gatorade might turn your skin clear. Scientists tried using yellow-tinting tartrazine on mice first; humans might get their turn, too, one day.

Michael Jordan has been trying to sell his house for 12 years. The basketball star lowered his price from $29 million to $14.855 million in 2015 — 1+4+8+5+5=23, his playing number — and hasn’t budged since.


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Our best wishes on a safe start to the day. Send any news, comments, economic vibes, or transparent skin pics to talk@qz.com. Today’s Daily Brief was brought to you by Melvin Backman and Morgan Haefner.

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