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Opinion | The Ugliness of the ‘Big, Beautiful’ Bill, in Charts

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Opinion | The Ugliness of the ‘Big, Beautiful’ Bill, in Charts

Sam Whitney/The New York Times

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With unusual speed, and despite an armada of controversial provisions, Congress has birthed a sprawling, nearly 900-page policy bill stuffed with hundreds of changes that will bestow trillions of dollars in tax cuts on the rich and special interests while slicing deeply into social programs relied on by millions of Americans.

Much like President Trump’s 2017 tax bill, it will add substantially to the deficit and the debt without providing any meaningful impetus to economic growth. But this time, it will be much worse. This legislation will pile about $3 trillion onto the deficit over the next 10 years, double the amount its predecessor was expected to generate. And it lacks provisions that could significantly boost economic growth.

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Our Rich Keep Getting Richer

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Impact on the deficit over 10 years

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Sources: The Washington Post; Joint Committee on Taxation; C.B.O.

Its signature and most expensive components make a slew of individual tax cuts — cuts instituted in 2017 that primarily benefit wealthy Americans — permanent. To help pay for them, the bill makes student loans more expensive, slashes incentives for clean energy and reduces funding for and access to Medicaid. Missing yet again, despite Mr. Trump’s promises, is any effort to raise the tax rate on carried interest earnings, a major win for private equity. But the bill does deliver on one of his campaign promises: serving up tax deductions (albeit not permanently) for overtime pay, tips, car loan interest and for seniors.

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Millions Lose Access to Medicaid

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Sources: KFF; C.B.O.

Note: Minor changes at the end of the Senate process may result in a slightly smaller increase in uninsured. Projections do not include other potential changes in the number of uninsured.

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The biggest and most damaging cuts are those to Medicaid — cuts that got only more draconian as the bill moved from the House to the Senate. About a third of the savings come from the imposition of a work requirement on recipients. While Republicans claim they are only attacking waste, fraud and abuse, the resulting paperwork to comply with the requirement is expected to daunt many and result in lost coverage. All told, these changes will cost over 10 million Americans their health care, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

The Cost of College Will Soar

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Average monthly student loan payments

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Source: Student Borrower Protection Center

The legislation largely guts the Biden administration’s student debt repayment program that offered lower- and middle-income families generous terms. As a result, average monthly obligations for borrowers will surge, with a typical loan recipient with a college degree and an annual income of $80,300 paying an additional $2,929 per year.

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What Climate Change?

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Clean energy investments announced since the Inflation Reduction Act

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Source: Clean Investment Monitor

Note: Data is from the third quarter of 2022 through the first quarter of 2025. Excludes roughly $14 billion where the congressional district is unclear or the seat is vacant.

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The bill rolls back many of the clean energy tax incentives and investments created by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, throwing a major roadblock in the way of combating climate change. Since the passage of the act, the United States has been experiencing a boom in clean energy investments, with $321 billion spent and $522 billion more on the way. Many of these projects will very likely be abandoned. Most Republican legislators are supporting this despite the fact that a vast majority of these investments have taken place in Republican congressional districts, where permitting is generally easier and weather can be more conducive to solar and wind power generation.

Trump’s Biggest Budget Buster

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The relative scale of Trump’s domestic policy bill

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Sources: Center for a Responsible Federal Budget; the Budget Lab

The package adds to our national debt in a way that dwarfs any of the other packages passed in the eight years since Mr. Trump first took office. His signature 2017 tax cut added a relatively modest $1.5 trillion to the 10-year deficit projection, but it did so by scheduling some of its provisions to expire after eight years, thereby setting the stage for the current legislation, which makes those changes permanent. (The bill uses the same gimmick with some of its tax breaks to keep costs down.)

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Spending Has Drifted Out of Balance

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Federal revenue vs. spending

The resulting deficit puts our economy in a perilous place. Over the past 50 years, federal spending as a percentage of gross domestic product averaged 21.1 percent. But since ballooning during the Covid-19 pandemic, spending has remained stubbornly above this average. With tax increases politically off the table, this means larger deficits.

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How the Budget Fits Together

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The biggest pieces of the budget

The bill is just the latest, and worst, example of a policy followed by both Republicans and Democrats in recent years: Take the easy way out and let deficits climb. The costs of Medicare and Medicaid are rising relentlessly and are now just over 5 percent of G.D.P., compared with 1.2 percent in 1975. Social Security’s outlays have also grown. And now, because of increasing debt and higher interest rates, the cost of servicing the national debt has begun to soar. Allowing the 2017 tax cuts to expire, which effectively would have raised taxes on 62 percent of Americans, could have been highly unpopular. But it was also necessary.

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One Big Borrowing Bill

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Sources: The Budget Lab; C.B.O.

Note: Data from estimates released July 1, 2025.

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Instead of growing to $2.7 trillion in 2035 from $1.9 trillion this year, this legislation will boost the deficit to $3.08 trillion a decade from now, according to one estimate. Exclude the gimmick of scheduling certain tax breaks to expire — an unlikely event, as demonstrated by Congress’s unwillingness to let the 2017 cuts fade — and the projected deficit climbs to $3.21 trillion. This puts total publicly held national debt at as much as 130 percent of G.D.P., materially higher than at any other time in our nation’s history. These higher deficits put upward pressure on interest rates, weakening the economy, and even more important, create an enormous debt burden for future generations to deal with.

The More You Make, the More You Benefit

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The bill’s impact on household finances, by income quintile

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Source: The Budget Lab and C.B.O. calculations

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Note: Data from estimates released June 30, 2025.

The legislation will be far more beneficial for the wealthiest, at the expense of those farther down the economic ladder. The bill makes permanent a regime in which the richest fifth of American households — those with annual incomes of $120,390 and above — will get an average benefit of 2.3 percent of their income, or $6,055. In contrast, the fifth of Americans with the least wealth will suffer an estimated loss of $560, largely because of the effect of the cuts to Medicaid and food stamps.

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The Economic Benefit Is Negligible

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The White House predicts much more growth from this bill than other models

Source: Center for a Responsible Federal Budget

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Note: Tax Foundation and C.E.A. estimates are based on the Senate version of the policy bill. All other estimates are based on the version passed by the House.

As for the impact of the legislation on economic growth, the White House is operating in its own universe. Private forecasters generally expect only a small bump to gross domestic product, with the Budget Lab at Yale University projecting even less growth. The White House Council of Economic Advisers, on the other hand, asserts that growth could reach 4.9 percent in 2028, multiples higher than other estimates.

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In my 50 years of following tax and budget policy, I don’t believe I have seen another piece of legislation that would have such broad and deep impacts on virtually every American. No important social welfare program like Medicaid has ever been rolled back to this extent. The tax changes will also exacerbate income inequality. It is a result that should embarrass the Republicans — and may well come back to haunt them in 2026 and 2028.

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Education

She Tried to Help Schools Build Healthier Playgrounds. Then Her E.P.A. Grant Was Canceled.

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She Tried to Help Schools Build Healthier Playgrounds. Then Her E.P.A. Grant Was Canceled.

Lost Science is an ongoing series of accounts from scientists who have lost their jobs or funding after cuts by the Trump administration. The conversations have been edited for clarity and length. Here’s why we’re doing this.


Kirsten Beyer: We had a three-year study, funded by the Environmental Protection Agency, focused on environmental health among children. We had two main aims. The first was to develop a curriculum so that Milwaukee Public Schools teachers could teach about environmental health, environmental health disparities and climate change.

The second aim was to look at the impact of schoolyard greening on health and environmental outcomes. There’s this greening initiative in Milwaukee to redevelop schoolyards. Many of them were sheets of asphalt. A lot of them were in disrepair. The redevelopment plans included things like planting trees, adding outdoor classrooms, improving storm water drainage with green infrastructure and improving sports fields and natural play spaces.

We built a study to collect data before and after. There are lots of schools around the country that have similar situations, so we were excited about sharing our results and informing other jurisdictions about the impact of this redevelopment.

We had the kids complete surveys. We measured things like social and emotional health, environmental health literacy, attitudes toward outdoor play. We also had sensors that measured their physical activity levels, time spent outdoors and where they spent time in the schoolyard. We went out and observed recess. How are kids playing? How is conflict being resolved? How engaged are the teachers or monitors? We measured air pollution and how hot those schoolyards were before greening.

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We were in the field in May 2025, collecting our final post-redevelopment data, when the grant was canceled. It was a shock. We had hired people as data collectors and had a month of data collection left.

I decided to rustle up some other resources just to get data collection done. But then we had no more money to support our community partners, staff or graduate students. We had to take people off this project.

Now we’re trying to do something with all of this data that we’ve collected: process it, analyze it and, importantly, share it.

We have just piles of data. There are papers that won’t get written and data that won’t be shared because this happened.

But I can’t just abandon this work. This is important to my community partners. This is important to other schools. And this is important to all of the kids who gave us their time, all the parents who allowed us to do research with their kids. There’s a moral imperative to continue the work, albeit slowly.

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Kirsten Beyer is a health geographer at the Medical College of Wisconsin.

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Art Abounds on Campuses Outside of New York City

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Art Abounds on Campuses Outside of New York City

The Princeton University Art Museum recently made Time magazine’s top 100 list of The World’s Greatest Places of 2026. James Steward, director of the museum that reopened on Halloween in an acclaimed new building designed by Adjaye Associates, said of the ranking, “It normalizes the idea that we are a world-class destination.”

In its first five months alone, the museum has received 250,000 visitors — more than half from outside campus (Princeton’s old museum averaged 200,000 annually).

The surge of public interest in the Princeton museum’s new home, spotlighting a global collection of more than 117,000 objects, is a timely reminder that university and college art museums are filled with unexpected treasures — often showcased in architecturally significant buildings — and are free and accessible to all. Here are several standout exhibitions at academic museums in range of New York City that are worth a visit this month, when campuses are looking their spring best for reunions and graduations.

The glorious modernist home of the Yale Center for British Art — Louis I. Kahn’s last design, completed in 1977 after his death — reopened in March 2025 after a two-year architectural conservation. In the year since, the museum has welcomed 100,000 visitors and almost 300 class visits to study its collection of more than 100,000 works from the 15th century to today that present an expansive understanding of British art and its imperial history.

“British art isn’t an island story, it’s a global story,” said Martina Droth, the center’s director. A contemporary installation by Rina Banerjee, a recent acquisition on view for the first time through Sept. 13 in the museum’s entrance court, and the exhibition “Painters, Ports, and Profits: Artists and the East India Company, 1750-1850,” up through June 21, both speak to a deep connection to India.

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“If British art is shaped by movement and exchange, then in ‘Painters, Ports, and Profits’ you see British artists who traveled to India because of the East India Company and found themselves working alongside Indian artists,” Droth said. “New things happen in terms of the aesthetics of the work, and you can really see that in the exhibition.”

The 115 works are mostly drawn from the collection and almost half are by Indian artists and workshops, including “Lucknow from the Gomti,” a 37-foot panoramic scroll of life along the river in that city in Northern India and a star of the show.

Banerjee, who was born in Kolkata and lived in London before moving to New York, has remade the form of the Taj Mahal in hot-pink semi-translucent plastic. Visible from the street through the glass doors and dangling from the ceiling, her playful floating sculptural palace allows visitors to enter and discover all sorts of colonial relics and commercial baubles embedded within.

The Johnson Museum opened in 1973 in an I.M. Pei-designed building, which rises seven stories and frames spectacular views of the landscape with its expansive vertical and horizontal windows and fifth floor cantilevered over an open porch. The global collection numbers more than 40,000 objects, with particular strength in Asian art, and college classes made 335 visits in the last academic year.

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Students from Cornell’s College of Agriculture and Life Sciences have spent considerable time with the exhibition “Naples: Course of Empire,” a series of seven panoramic canvases by Alexis Rockman on view through June 7, according to the museum’s curator of modern and contemporary art, Andrea Inselmann. Over the last four decades, Rockman has been a leading voice in the art world raising awareness about climate change through his paintings focused on all forms of life on Earth.

The works in this show were “inspired by Thomas Cole’s 19th-century cycle ‘The Course of Empire’ about the rise and fall of civilizations,” said Inselmann, who organized the exhibition. Taking Naples as a case study of a port city vulnerable to rising waters, Rockman used his signature style of deeply researched and lyrically rendered history painting to reimagine this landscape over geologic time starting from the Mesozoic Era. Paintings depict animals fleeing the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 A.D.; a rat flying over Naples spewing a noxious plume during the bubonic plague of the 1650s; and a whale breaching before the ruins of the city in a speculative post-human future.

“I thought this would be a very appropriate show for a college context,” Inselmann said. “Especially for younger generations, I think it provides a context and an environment to talk about climate change and to express their anxieties or their hopes for the future.”

On Skidmore’s campus in Saratoga Springs, famous for its horse racing and natural mineral springs, the Tang punches above its weight for a small liberal arts college museum with an ambitious exhibition program in a striking building designed by Antoine Predock. The museum generates about a dozen shows annually — often from its collection of nearly 20,000 objects, with strengths in contemporary art and photography — and drew more than 220 class visits from across disciplines this school year.

Anchoring the Tang’s 25th anniversary season this spring is “Kathy Butterly: Assume Yes,” a three-decade retrospective of the artist’s playful, inventive and sometimes jarring small-scale ceramic sculptures on view through July 26. “Kathy bridges the generation of Robert Arneson and Viola Frey, who were her teachers and innovators that moved ceramics from a purely craft environment to a museum and art conversation, and the world we’re in today where we see ceramics in lots of different ways all over gallery exhibitions,” said the Tang director Ian Berry, who organized the show. “Kathy is a real inspiration and key figure for this current moment.”

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Forty-five of her eccentric vessels — miniature three-dimensional canvases for experimental glazes and textures, often crumpling expressively on their bases — are grouped chronologically across three huge platforms serving as the “rooms” of the show. Within the constraints of small shifts in scale, from four to eight inches say, “an entire universe changes,” Berry said. The title of the show comes from one of Butterly’s works. “‘Assume’ adds a little twist to the exclamation point of ‘Yes’,” he said. “It’s optimistic, it’s upbeat, but also it has a complexity to it.”

Alongside Princeton’s encyclopedic collections, displayed throughout the museum’s stunning complex of nine interlocking modernist pavilions, is “Willem de Kooning: The Breakthrough Years, 1945-50” — the first temporary loan exhibition in the new building — on view through July 26.

The show is built around Princeton’s own 1948 painting “Black Friday” — exhibited that year in de Kooning’s debut show at the Charles Egan Gallery in New York after he had struggled there in poverty for 15 years.

“It emerged as one of the essential pictures in de Kooning’s career,” said Steward, Princeton’s museum director, who agreed to loan “Black Friday” to the Museum of Modern Art for its major de Kooning retrospective in 2011 organized by the chief curator emeritus of painting and sculpture, John Elderfield.

Now, in turn, Elderfield has co-curated this exhibition of 18 paintings, drawn from more than a dozen museums and private collections and focused on the pivotal period when de Kooning found his artistic voice and helped to pioneer Abstract Expressionism.

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“It is just such an incisive project that is physically modest in scope, but not modest at all intellectually or artistically,” Steward said. “That’s a sweet spot I really want us to occupy as a great academic museum.”

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Today, In Short

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Today, In Short

One of my favorite podcasts is “So True With Caleb Hearon,” hosted by Hearon, a comedian. He recently appeared in “The Devil Wears Prada 2” as Miranda Priestly’s assistant. Having grown up, as Hearon put it, “fat, gay and poor” in rural Missouri, he never dreamed of booking the role “a million girls would kill for.”

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  • Middle East: Iran said yesterday that it was reviewing an American proposal to end the war. Washington is still awaiting Tehran’s response.

  • California: Last night was the final televised debate before the primary for the state’s governor. The face-off between seven candidates was tame at first, but they eventually furiously attacked one another. See what went down.

  • Hantavirus: Should you worry? Public health officials say the threat to the general public remains low based on what we know. Read more about the hantavirus.

  • Jeffrey Epstein: A federal judge released a suicide note believed to be written by the convicted sex offender that had been sealed for years.

  • Ted Turner: Turner, the media mogul, yachtsman and creator of CNN, died yesterday at his home in Florida. He was 87.


A few things you didn’t really need to know but now do:

  • It’s been nearly 20 years since Guy Goma’s BBC appearance became an early viral internet moment. Goma thought he was interviewing for a job when he suddenly he found himself on air. He pulled it off much better than I could have.

  • How are people getting their information about health and wellness? For at least half of U.S. adults under 50, it’s through influencers or podcasters, according to a new analysis.

  • Clavicular, the looksmaxxing influencer, has been charged with shooting at an alligator during a livestream.


The New York Knicks hung on to the series lead in a 108-102 thriller against the Philadelphia 76ers. Game 3 is set for tomorrow in Philadelphia.

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Nineteen books were recognized as winners or finalists of the Pulitzer Prize. I may add some to my reading list.

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