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Homebuilder confidence falls to lowest level in five months amid tariff concerns, high mortgage rates

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Homebuilder confidence falls to lowest level in five months amid tariff concerns, high mortgage rates

Homebuilders are feeling less optimistic about the housing market as they navigate concerns over tariffs, elevated mortgage rates, and high housing costs.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index was 42 in February, a five-point drop from January and the lowest level in five months. Economists were expecting a reading of 46, per Bloomberg data.

A reading under 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as poor than good.

“While builders hold out hope for pro-development policies, particularly for regulatory reform, policy uncertainty, and cost factors created a reset for 2025 expectations in the most recent HMI,” NAHB Chairman Carl Harris, a custom home builder from Wichita, Kansas, wrote in a statement.

One of the major cost concerns stems from President Trump’s executive order imposing 25% tariffs on all imported steel and aluminum products, set to take effect in March. According to the National Association of Home Builders, this could raise residential construction costs.

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This tariff move comes after Trump announced a month pause on other tariffs for Canadian and Mexican goods.

“With 32% of appliances and 30% of softwood lumber coming from international trade, uncertainty over the scale and scope of tariffs has builders further concerned about costs,” NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz wrote in a statement.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell to 42 in February, down 5 points from January, and reached the lowest level in five months. According to Bloomberg data, economists were expecting a reading of 46. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

At the same time, builders continue to grapple with elevated mortgage rates. Data from Freddie Mac shows that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is hovering around 7%, further dampening demand.

The NAHB survey found 26% of builders cut home prices in February, down from 30% in January and the lowest share since May 2024. Meanwhile, 59% of builders used sales incentives in February, a slight decrease from 61% in January.

NAHB’s chief economist Robert Dietz said he expects “incentive use may also be weakening as a sales strategy as elevated interest rates reduce the pool of eligible home buyers.”

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Indeed, in the survey, the gauge measuring sales outlook over the next six months plunged 13 points to 46 and hit its lowest level since December 2023. The prospective buyer traffic gauge posted a three point decline to 29. The NAHB index of current sales conditions dropped four points to 46.

Dani Romero is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @daniromerotv.

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Finance

Former Semmes finance director accused of embezzling money from McDonald’s

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Former Semmes finance director accused of embezzling money from McDonald’s

MOBILE, Ala. (WALA) – A former finance director for the City of Semmes has been arrested and charged with theft by deception and credit card fraud, according to jail records.

HEATHER DAVIS(Mobile County Metro Jail)

According to the Mobile County Sheriff’s Office, 48-year-old Heather Davis is accused of embezzling between $3,000 to $6,000 from her current employer, McDonald’s.

According to a post on the City of Semmes Facebook page from March 4, 2023, Davis began working for the city in February in 2023 as the finance director.

However, Semmes Mayor Brandon Van Hook told FOX10 News Davis has not worked for the city in over a year.

The Mobile County District Attorney’s Office said these charges do not stem from her position with the City of Semmes.

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Davis was also a former city clerk for the City of Satsuma.

Davis turned herself in today after a warrant for her arrest was issued, according to investigators.

Jail records show Davis has since been released on a $10,000 bond.

This is a developing story

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US consumers slow spending as inflation bites, Synchrony says

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US consumers slow spending as inflation bites, Synchrony says

By Nupur Anand

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. consumers are starting to curb their spending in response to high prices and a worsening economic outlook, according to consumer finance company Synchrony Financial (SYF).

Americans have been accumulating more debt amid strain in their finances, with delinquencies edging up for auto loans, credit cards and home credit lines, the Federal Reserve said last month.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker has also warned that trouble may be brewing for the U.S. economy, which is showing signs of stress in the consumer sector with consumer confidence also waning.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JANUARY 13: People walk by a Macy’s store in Brooklyn after the company announced it was closing the store along with over 60 others on January 13, 2025 in New York City. Macy’s, once the nation’s premier department store, has struggled in recent years with the competition from online retailers and discount stores such as Walmart. Macy’s has said that the closures would allow them to prioritize its roughly 350 Macy’s remaining locations. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images) · Spencer Platt via Getty Images

The belt-tightening indicates that Americans, whose finances are broadly healthy, are preparing for their finances to be more stretched, said Max Axler, chief credit officer of Synchrony. Most clients are still keeping up their loan repayments, he added.

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“Purchase volumes have gone down across the industry as consumers across all income groups become more thoughtful about spending,” Axler told Reuters.

Synchrony, which issues credit cards in partnership with retailers and merchants, has more than 100 million consumer credit accounts.

U.S. consumer sentiment plunged to a nearly 2-1/2-year low in March as inflation expectations soared. Some economists have warned that President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs could boost prices and undercut growth.

Concerns about higher prices have driven consumers’ long-term inflation expectations to levels last seen in early 1993.

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 25: A shopper looks at meat products on display at a grocery store on March 25, 2025 in Sydney, Australia. The budget is expected to return to deficit after two years of surplus, focusing on cost-of-living relief measures, including extended electricity rebates and increased healthcare spending, while also addressing economic challenges and potential voter concerns ahead of the upcoming federal election. (Photo by Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images)
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – MARCH 25: A shopper looks at meat products on display at a grocery store on March 25, 2025 in Sydney, Australia. The budget is expected to return to deficit after two years of surplus, focusing on cost-of-living relief measures, including extended electricity rebates and increased healthcare spending, while also addressing economic challenges and potential voter concerns ahead of the upcoming federal election. (Photo by Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images) · Lisa Maree Williams via Getty Images

Retailers including Target and Walmart have said that shoppers are being careful with their spending, waiting for deals or making tradeoffs to lower-priced items.

Household spending cuts could be a precursor to increasing late credit payments or loan defaults, analysts said. While default rates have remained broadly steady, spending is being watched carefully as an early indicator of deteriorating consumer finances.

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Borrowers could also become more cautious, taking out fewer or smaller loans and crimping a key source of revenue for banks. Across the industry, loan growth slowed by 5% to 12% in February versus a year earlier, HSBC analyst Saul Martinez said.

“There is clearly a slowdown, and it shows that the consumer is vulnerable,” Martinez said. “And for banks, slowing loan growth could result in lower net interest income and revenue,” he added.

The concerns about household finances have also weighed on consumer finance stocks with shares of American Express (AXP), Capital One (COF), Synchrony, (SYF) and Discover (DFS) down between 15-22% over the past month, Martinez said.

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Mag 7 takes on ‘growth as defensive’ bias, strategist says

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Mag 7 takes on ‘growth as defensive’ bias, strategist says
Citi head of US equity strategy Scott Chronert joins Market Domination hosts Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton to discuss Monday’s “Magnificent Seven” rally in the context of the recent tech trade decline. In particular, Chronert emphasizes a “growth as defensive” component coming into play for the Magnificent Seven. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here.
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