Florida is one of the least affordable states in the country to buy a home, according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, as high mortgage rates keep buyers out of the market.

Why It Matters

With its sunny weather, relaxed lifestyle, and relatively cheaper cost of living and housing, Florida attracted a flow of new residents during the COVID-19 pandemic. But those markets that boomed during the health emergency have experienced a rapid cooldown over the past year as inbound migration weakened and new inventory poured into the market.

The affordability strain caused by high mortgage rates and historically elevated prices, combined with the growth in inventory and skyrocketing homeowners insurance premiums, is likely to cause a cooldown in demand and a drop in prices across Florida, experts have said.

What To Know

The Mortgage Bankers Association uses the Purchase Applications Payment Index, also known as PAPI, to measure how affordable it is to buy a home in each state based on how much a mortgage plus interest on loans costs a household in relation to its income.

In November, Florida had a PAPI of 209.9, lower only than that of Nevada (248.7), Idaho (244.2) and Arizona (220.7). The national PAPI, for comparison, was 163.3 in the same month.

While Florida has one of the least affordable mortgage payments in the nation in relation to residents’ wages, the interest rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the state are slightly lower than at the national level, according to Bankrate data. As of Tuesday, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 7.09 percent. In Florida, it was 7.06 percent.

How Are High Mortgage Rates Affecting the Florida Market

According to Nick Gerli, a real estate analyst and the CEO of Reventure App, the lack of affordability in Florida explains “the big market slowdown” in the state.

“Home sales are down 40 percent from their pandemic peak. Inventory is at the highest level in nearly 10 years. And now prices are starting to drop. But not fast enough for homebuyers,” he wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Monday.

“Florida’s mortgage payment as a % of income is one of the highest in America at 40 percent,” Gerli wrote. “For the average buyer, they need to spend around $30,000 on mtg, tax, insurance. Median household income across the state is $75,000.”

What People Are Saying

Nick Gerli, the CEO of Reventure App, wrote on X: “Today’s 40 percent mtg payment/income ratio is unprecedented. The only other time it was close was the mid-2000s housing bubble. Before the big crash.”

The Senate Budget Committee wrote in a report published last month: “In certain communities, sky-high insurance premiums and unavailable coverage will make it nearly impossible for anyone who cannot buy a house in cash to get a mortgage and buy a home. Property values will eventually fall—just like in 2008—sending household wealth tumbling. The United States could be looking at a systemic shock to the economy similar to the financial crisis of 2008—if not greater.”

Sean O’Dowd, a real estate investor in Chicago, previously told Newsweek: “There’s not a single lender out there that I’m aware of that will give you a mortgage without proof of insurance. The problem is, if you have an insurance payment that’s just as much as the principal and interest payment for the mortgage, if you’ve got an insurance payment that’s five hundred bucks a month, you get to a situation where a homebuyer—especially a first-time homebuyer that doesn’t have a lot of capital to put down for the down payment—has such a weedy monthly payment with this huge insurance premium that they cannot afford to buy a house.”

What Happens Next

For Gerli, the combination of these factors—cooling demand, less inbound migration and growing supply—means the Florida market “is now turning.” His company is forecasting price declines across all of Florida’s housing market this year.

“These price declines will be welcome news to homebuyers, and finally start returning affordability to a housing market that sorely needs it,” he wrote.

Other experts agree that prices will drop in parts of Florida throughout 2025. Redfin economist Chen Zhao previously told Newsweek that the best places to buy a home this year will be “markets in the Sun Belt, especially Florida and Texas,” which are “the weakest at the moment.”

Norada Real Estate Investments also identified three metropolitan areas in Florida—Gainesville, Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville and Lakeland-Winter Haven—as at “very high risk” of experiencing a downturn this year, with prices potentially dropping by as much as 15 percent.