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Brace for ‘third wave’ of China bond defaults on financing costs, tighter policies: S&P

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Brace for ‘third wave’ of China bond defaults on financing costs, tighter policies: S&P
China could face a third wave of corporate bond defaults at home and abroad this year, as high financing costs, slow economic growth and tight government policies heap pressure on the country’s weakest borrowers, S&P Global Ratings said.

Local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and consumer companies could trigger a new round of debt failures because of their bigger maturity walls and greater refinancing needs, the rating company said in a report on Tuesday. The most recent distress cases are just entering full restructuring and more will come this year, it added.

“Policies aimed at reining in excessive leverage have driven two default waves so far,” Charles Chang, S&P’s Greater China country lead for corporate ratings, said in the report. “More policies with similar aims, scale and effects may lead to the next wave of defaults.”

China’s local government financing vehicles borrow heavily to fund infrastructure projects and face a major refinancing needs this year, S&P says. Photo: Xinhua

Companies in the industrial and commodities sectors led the first wave between 2015 and 2016, when the country experienced 80 defaults triggered by excess capacity and asset management, said Chang, who co-authored the report with China country specialist Chang Li. Beijing’s “three red lines” policy has led to the second wave from 2021, with real estate developers accounting for most of the 108 default cases since, he added.

China Evergrande Group, which was ordered to liquidate in January amid an accounting scandal, first fell into distress in June 2021 after China squashed weak developers to contain systemic risks in the financial system. The cash crunch at Country Garden Holdings, once China’s largest home builder, showed the crisis has yet to run its course, S&P said in the report.

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Boom, bust and borrow: Has China’s housing market tanked?

Boom, bust and borrow: Has China’s housing market tanked?

“Market access for privately owned firms has been negative for most months since 2021,” Chang said in the report. “For LGFVs, only higher rated firms were able to issue bonds but in lower volumes. Tightened regulation has restricted the market access of weaker LGFVs.”

Still, this year may mark a trough as the repayment amount drops, S&P said. Chinese entities have US$92 billion in offshore corporate bonds coming due, compared with US$111 billion that matured in 2023 and US$104 billion that will be payable in 2025, Chang said. As a result, China’s offshore default rate has fallen to 0.3 per cent in the first quarter, from 1.3 per cent in 2023 and 6.7 per cent in 2022.

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Country Garden to raise funds for US$13 million bond coupon within grace period

China’s 5.3 per cent growth last quarter should not be viewed as a “significant slowdown”, said Kenny Ng, a strategist at Everbright Securities in Hong Kong. The country’s monetary policy is still quite accommodative and financing costs are still going down overall.

While there has been no default among onshore borrowers in the first three months of 2024, S&P said debt maturities are peaking this year at 8 trillion yuan (US$1.1 trillion). LGFVs face 3.5 trillion yuan of repayments, while the capital goods and power sectors each have 757 billion yuan and 738 billion yuan of obligations, respectively.

“Corporate debt is a rigid burden that is largely dependent on a company’s operations,” said Shen Meng, director at Beijing-based investment firm Chanson & Co. “The tightening of financing will further compress the flexibility of a company’s operations and shake the foundation of its financial stability.”

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Donating Stock Instead of Cash Is the 2-for-1 Deal You’ll Love at Tax Time

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Donating Stock Instead of Cash Is the 2-for-1 Deal You’ll Love at Tax Time

For many families, the holiday season comes with familiar rituals: untangling last year’s Christmas lights, decorating the tree and rediscovering ornaments we swore we’d organize “better next year.”

Charitable giving should feel just as joyful and natural — but for many households, it’s also a moment when good intentions collide with inefficient habits.

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Aerodrome Finance Hit by ‘Front-End’ Attack, Users Urged to Avoid Main Domain

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Aerodrome Finance Hit by ‘Front-End’ Attack, Users Urged to Avoid Main Domain

Aerodrome Finance, a leading decentralized exchange on Coinbase’s Base network with $400 million in total value locked, was targeted in a front-end attack late Friday, prompting urgent warnings for users to avoid its primary domains.

The incident appears to be a DNS hijacking of Aerodrome’s centralized domains, which allowed attackers to reroute users to lookalike phishing sites designed to trick them into signing malicious wallet transactions to separate them from their funds. Users are advised to instead rely on Aerodrome’s decentralized domains. Aerodrome has asked My.box, the domain provider, to contact them over a potential exploit of their systems.

These attacks do not compromise the underlying smart contracts, which manage user funds and protocol logic on-chain. At the time of writing, it’s unconfirmed whether the attack has led to any losses or how many users have been affected. Liquidity pools and protocol treasuries remain intact, according to Aerodrome.

Aerodrome’s team has been posting real-time updates on X, urging users not to access the compromised domains, aerodrome.finance and aerodrome.box, and instead use decentralized ENS mirrors like aero.drome.eth.limo. To reduce risk, the team recommends revoking recent token approvals using tools like Revoke.cash and avoiding signing any transactions from unverified domains.

New attack

Aerodrome has experienced similar front-end attacks before, including two in late 2023 that resulted in approximately $300,000 in user losses.

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This latest attack comes just days after Aerodrome announced a merger with Velodrome, consolidating liquidity across Base and Optimism under the new “Aero” ecosystem. Despite the disruption, the AERO token price remained stable at around $0.67, up 2% over the last 24 hours.

The investigation is ongoing.

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Incredible year-long spending experiment exposes mistakes you’re probably making

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Incredible year-long spending experiment exposes mistakes you’re probably making
The forthcoming book follows her journey of one year without buying anything new and how it changed her relationship with money and her self-worth. (Source: Emma Edwards/Instagram)

Financial behaviour specialist Emma Edwards, founder of The Broke Generation, is sharing her radical personal finance experiment: a whole year without buying a single item of clothing.

No new outfits, no second-hand finds, not even rentals. What began as a no-buy challenge soon became a powerful lesson in self-worth, resilience, and the surprising freedom of living with less.

In the exclusive extract below, Emma shares the six buying patterns we get trapped into thinking we actually need.

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The impact of our consumption habits creates an environment where we’re cornered from every angle. We have a collection of clothes that don’t work together, don’t make us feel good and don’t allow us to express ourselves the way we want to, which leaves us looking externally for what we’re not getting. The problem is, when we look externally, we buy more and more of the same.

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Unravelling that idea of what can happen when we’re in a ‘yes’ state, a state of openness to consumption even though our intentions might suggest otherwise, got me curious about some of the unhelpful buying cycles I’d been stuck in. I really leaned into understanding how I ended up with the wardrobe I currently had, and what I could learn from the mistakes I made over and over again.

I realised that if I could establish the mistakes I was making and the ways I was buying the wrong things, I’d stop feeling compelled to buy more and more over time. Here are some of the patterns I uncovered in my wardrobe, and that I’ve seen in others’ too.

Once I liked something in one colour (often black), I’d giddily run out and buy it in another colour, thinking I was making some kind of ultra-smart decision and capitalising on what I loved. I’m going to give you a piece of advice now that I hope you’ll remember for many years. If you ever utter the words ‘I’m going to go and get this in another colour’ – run. It’s a trap. You probably won’t like the other colour, and it’ll just sit in your wardrobe and collect dust.

There are certain things in my wardrobe that I struggled to wear confidently outside of one specific outfit silo. Usually, this is a sure-fire sign that I’d bought it in a very specific context, like copying or replicating an outfit I’d seen someone else wear.

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