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Brace for ‘third wave’ of China bond defaults on financing costs, tighter policies: S&P

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Brace for ‘third wave’ of China bond defaults on financing costs, tighter policies: S&P
China could face a third wave of corporate bond defaults at home and abroad this year, as high financing costs, slow economic growth and tight government policies heap pressure on the country’s weakest borrowers, S&P Global Ratings said.

Local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and consumer companies could trigger a new round of debt failures because of their bigger maturity walls and greater refinancing needs, the rating company said in a report on Tuesday. The most recent distress cases are just entering full restructuring and more will come this year, it added.

“Policies aimed at reining in excessive leverage have driven two default waves so far,” Charles Chang, S&P’s Greater China country lead for corporate ratings, said in the report. “More policies with similar aims, scale and effects may lead to the next wave of defaults.”

China’s local government financing vehicles borrow heavily to fund infrastructure projects and face a major refinancing needs this year, S&P says. Photo: Xinhua

Companies in the industrial and commodities sectors led the first wave between 2015 and 2016, when the country experienced 80 defaults triggered by excess capacity and asset management, said Chang, who co-authored the report with China country specialist Chang Li. Beijing’s “three red lines” policy has led to the second wave from 2021, with real estate developers accounting for most of the 108 default cases since, he added.

China Evergrande Group, which was ordered to liquidate in January amid an accounting scandal, first fell into distress in June 2021 after China squashed weak developers to contain systemic risks in the financial system. The cash crunch at Country Garden Holdings, once China’s largest home builder, showed the crisis has yet to run its course, S&P said in the report.

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“Market access for privately owned firms has been negative for most months since 2021,” Chang said in the report. “For LGFVs, only higher rated firms were able to issue bonds but in lower volumes. Tightened regulation has restricted the market access of weaker LGFVs.”

Still, this year may mark a trough as the repayment amount drops, S&P said. Chinese entities have US$92 billion in offshore corporate bonds coming due, compared with US$111 billion that matured in 2023 and US$104 billion that will be payable in 2025, Chang said. As a result, China’s offshore default rate has fallen to 0.3 per cent in the first quarter, from 1.3 per cent in 2023 and 6.7 per cent in 2022.

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Country Garden to raise funds for US$13 million bond coupon within grace period

China’s 5.3 per cent growth last quarter should not be viewed as a “significant slowdown”, said Kenny Ng, a strategist at Everbright Securities in Hong Kong. The country’s monetary policy is still quite accommodative and financing costs are still going down overall.

While there has been no default among onshore borrowers in the first three months of 2024, S&P said debt maturities are peaking this year at 8 trillion yuan (US$1.1 trillion). LGFVs face 3.5 trillion yuan of repayments, while the capital goods and power sectors each have 757 billion yuan and 738 billion yuan of obligations, respectively.

“Corporate debt is a rigid burden that is largely dependent on a company’s operations,” said Shen Meng, director at Beijing-based investment firm Chanson & Co. “The tightening of financing will further compress the flexibility of a company’s operations and shake the foundation of its financial stability.”

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FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks muted as Trump delays strikes on Iran power plants

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FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks muted as Trump delays strikes on Iran power plants

The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) was hovering around the flatline on Friday, while European stocks headed lower, as traders shrugged off Donald Trump’s latest pause on striking Iran’s energy infrastructure.

On Thursday night, the US president extended the deadline for Iran to open the strait of Hormuz by 10 days, meaning the new date would be 6 April. He claimed that talks were “going very well”. However, Iran denied it was “begging to make a deal”, despite Trump’s earlier claims.

It comes after Wall Street posted its biggest daily loss since the Iran war began on Thursday.

The Wall Street Journal also reported on Thursday that the US was considering sending as many as 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East.

Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, said Trump has extended the uncertainty gripping markets.

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“While the rhetoric around de-escalation and dialogue is certainly preferable to outright conflict, the market appears to be growing increasingly numb to President Trump’s verbal reassurances. By extending the deadline, it effectively kicks the can down the road, pushing back any concrete resolution regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This, in turn, simply extends the uncertainty weighing on markets and the broader global economy.”

Elsewhere, UK retail sales dipped by 0.4% in February, following a rise of 2.0% in January, the Office for National Statistics revealed. In the December to February quarter, sales volumes were up 0.7% compared with the previous three months.

  • London’s benchmark index (^FTSE) was hovering around the flatline in early trade

  • Germany’s DAX (^GDAXI) dipped 0.5% and the CAC (^FCHI) in Paris headed 0.2% into the red

  • The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) was down 0.3%

  • Wall Street is set for a muted start as S&P 500 futures (ES=F), Dow futures (YM=F) and Nasdaq futures (NQ=F) were all lacklustre.

  • The pound was 0.1% down against the US dollar (GBPUSD=X) at 1.3311

Follow along for live updates throughout the day:

LIVE 4 updates

  • Consumer confidence in Britain slips in March

    GfK revealed on Friday that the UK confidence index fell two points to -21 in March – the weakest level since Donald Trump announced sweeping import tariffs in April last year. At the time, the index sank to -23.

    Neil Bellamy, the firm’s consumer insights director, said the survey showed people are concerned about the prospects for inflation and the economy.

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    The group said the sharp rise in energy prices caused by the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz and attacks on infrastructure in the region “has led to fears of higher inflation and weaker growth across oil-importing countries”.

    A majority of respondents said the economy had improved modestly over the last year, but was about to decline significantly. They said they were likely to save more and spend less on big ticket items over the next 12 months as a result.

  • UK retail sales dip amid wet weather and weaker supermarket trading

    UK retail sales decreased in February as supermarket sales slipped and demand for household goods was impacted by wet weather, according to official figures.

    The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the total volume of retail sales, which measures the quantity bought, fell by 0.4% last month.

    It compared with a 2% rise in January, which was revised up from a previous estimate of 1.8%.

    The monthly decline in February was nevertheless shallower than expected, with analysts having predicted a drop of 0.7% for the month.

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    A fall in supermarket sales partly contributed to the fresh monthly decline, falling by 0.6%.

    All food stores, which includes convenience stores and specialist retailers, reported a 0.7% decline in sales volumes, marking the weakest level since August last year.

    Elsewhere, the data showed that household goods stores saw weaker demand, dropping by 2.6%, with retailers partly blaming “wet weather” for reduced demand.

    Met Office data indicated that the UK, had above average rainfall in February 2026, more so than in either January this year or the previous February.

    Non-store retailers also reported a slight dip over the month, with retailers suggesting that consumers brought forward spending to January to make the most of post-Christmas discounts.

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    Matt Dalton, consumer sector leader at Forvis Mazars, said:

  • Asia and US overnight

    Stocks in Asia were mixed overnight, stuck in a wait and see mode, with the Nikkei (^N225) fell 0.4% on the day in Japan, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) rose 0.4% in Hong Kong.

    The Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was 0.6% up by the end of the session and in South Korea, the Kospi (^KS11) lost 0.4% on the day. Part of the Kospi’s weakness was also due to the ongoing sell-off in South Korean chipmaker stocks from Google’s memory chip announcement.

    Across the pond, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped 1.7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) was 2.4% down, both seeing their biggest declines since the start of the war and fell back to their lowest levels since September. The Dow Jones (^DJI) ended 1% lower, while the VIX index rose 2.11 points to 27.44pts, its highest since 6 March.

    Part of the Wall Street selloff was also driven by the ongoing rout from Tuesday’s announcement that Google had found a new algorithm that could reduce the memory chip amount needed in AI models.

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  • Coming up

    Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what’s moving markets and what’s happening across the global economy.

    To the day ahead we’ll get the US March Kansas City Fed services activity, UK February retail sales. Central bank events include the ECB consumer expectations survey, and the Fed’s Daly and Paulson will speak.

    Here’s a snapshot of what’s on the agenda today:

    • 7am: UK retail sales for February

    • 9am: ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations survey

    • 2pm: University of Michigan consumer confidence report

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NDSU College of Business launches Center for Banking and Finance

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NDSU College of Business launches Center for Banking and Finance

FARGO, N.D. – North Dakota State University’s College of Business has launched the Center for Banking and Finance, a new academic and industry‑engaged hub designed to prepare students for careers in banking and finance while supporting the evolving workforce needs of the region’s financial industry, a release states.

Announced during a press conference at NDSU’s Louise Auditorium at Barry Hall, the center brings together students, faculty and industry partners to expand experiential learning opportunities, strengthen connections to employers, and address emerging trends shaping the financial services industry. The center is housed within NDSU’s College of Business and builds on growing student interest in finance‑related programs.

“The Center for Banking and Finance reflects NDSU’s responsibility as a student‑focused, land‑grant, research university to respond to workforce and economic needs across our state and region,” said Interim President Rick Berg. “By connecting education, industry, and community, this center helps ensure our graduates are prepared to contribute on day one and throughout their careers.”

The center will support undergraduate and graduate students through hands‑on learning experiences, exposure to financial tools and technologies, and direct engagement with financial institutions, regulators and business leaders. It will also serve professionals already working in banking and finance through workshops, training and research‑informed programming aligned with business needs, according to the release.

“The Center for Banking and Finance is about momentum — students who are eager to learn, faculty who are pushing applied scholarship forward, and industry partners who want to shape the future workforce,” said Kathryn Birkeland, Ronald and Kaye Olson dean of the NDSU College of Business. “When education and industry move together, everyone benefits.”

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The launch of the Center for Banking and Finance coincides with a series of regional events focused on finance, fintech and economic outlook, including programming with the Bank of North Dakota, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and regional business leaders. Together, these events underscore the Fargo‑Moorhead area’s role as a hub for financial dialogue, talent development and economic collaboration.

The center’s foundational banking partners include Dacotah Bank, Gate City Bank, Bell Bank and Western State Bank, who attended the launch and are helping shape early student experiences and industry-informed programming.

The center is led by Mark Jensen, a career banker and longtime adjunct instructor who joined NDSU full-time in 2026 as director of the Center for Banking and Finance.

“The Center for Banking and Finance is designed as a bridge,” Jensen said. “It brings industry into the learning experience in meaningful ways, and it gives students clearer pathways into a wide range of banking and finance careers.”

For students, the center represents a more direct bridge between academic study and professional opportunity.

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“As a finance student, experiences outside the classroom make a real difference,” said Tavian Nelson, a senior at NDSU majoring in finance. “Going into college, I knew I wanted to be involved in the finance program but was unsure of what that would look like once I graduated. The school has truly shaped my desired career outcomes with many hands-on experiences, professional leaders, and connections throughout my time here. This center will truly strengthen these experiences for students.”

Initially, the center will focus on experiential learning opportunities, business partnerships and workforce‑aligned programming, with plans to expand offerings as partnerships and resources grow. The center is supported through external funding and business engagement.

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Iran war could trigger financial systemic stress, ECB vice president warns

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Iran war could trigger financial systemic stress, ECB vice president warns

FRANKFURT, March 26 (Reuters) – Euro zone banks have limited direct exposure to the war in the Middle East, but the conflict ‌could still generate systemic stress given interconnected vulnerabilities, European Central ‌Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Thursday.

Financial markets have come under stress ​in recent weeks from the impact of the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran, but the selloff outside the Middle East has been limited, even as some assets remain overvalued.

“Spillovers to the euro area financial sector have ‌so far remained contained,” ⁠de Guindos said in a speech. “Direct bank exposures to the region are limited, and the banking system is well ⁠positioned with strong profitability and robust capital and liquidity buffers.”

De Guindos argued that even market infrastructure operators, like central counterparties whose services include energy markets, ​have managed ​margin requirements effectively, despite the volatility.

Still, ​there was a broader risk, ‌given interconnections in the financial system, said de Guindos, whose roles at the ECB include monitoring financial stability.

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“Amid already elevated global uncertainty, this conflict could trigger the unravelling of interconnected vulnerabilities and cause systemic stress,” he said.

The conflict threatens to derail market sentiment at a time when ‌asset valuations are high, potentially leading to ​a sharp repricing of risk for leveraged ​borrowers and sovereigns while amplifying ​stress in the non-bank financial sector, he said.

On the ‌ECB’s core mandate of ensuring low ​inflation, de Guindos ​repeated the bank’s warning that inflation could rise and growth slow on the conflict but argued more time was needed to understand ​the full impact.

“We are ‌unwavering in our commitment to ensuring that inflation stabilises at ​our 2% target in the medium term,” he said.

(Reporting by ​Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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