Finance
Brace for ‘third wave’ of China bond defaults on financing costs, tighter policies: S&P
Local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and consumer companies could trigger a new round of debt failures because of their bigger maturity walls and greater refinancing needs, the rating company said in a report on Tuesday. The most recent distress cases are just entering full restructuring and more will come this year, it added.
“Policies aimed at reining in excessive leverage have driven two default waves so far,” Charles Chang, S&P’s Greater China country lead for corporate ratings, said in the report. “More policies with similar aims, scale and effects may lead to the next wave of defaults.”
Companies in the industrial and commodities sectors led the first wave between 2015 and 2016, when the country experienced 80 defaults triggered by excess capacity and asset management, said Chang, who co-authored the report with China country specialist Chang Li. Beijing’s “three red lines” policy has led to the second wave from 2021, with real estate developers accounting for most of the 108 default cases since, he added.
China Evergrande Group, which was ordered to liquidate in January amid an accounting scandal, first fell into distress in June 2021 after China squashed weak developers to contain systemic risks in the financial system. The cash crunch at Country Garden Holdings, once China’s largest home builder, showed the crisis has yet to run its course, S&P said in the report.
“Market access for privately owned firms has been negative for most months since 2021,” Chang said in the report. “For LGFVs, only higher rated firms were able to issue bonds but in lower volumes. Tightened regulation has restricted the market access of weaker LGFVs.”
Still, this year may mark a trough as the repayment amount drops, S&P said. Chinese entities have US$92 billion in offshore corporate bonds coming due, compared with US$111 billion that matured in 2023 and US$104 billion that will be payable in 2025, Chang said. As a result, China’s offshore default rate has fallen to 0.3 per cent in the first quarter, from 1.3 per cent in 2023 and 6.7 per cent in 2022.
Country Garden to raise funds for US$13 million bond coupon within grace period
Country Garden to raise funds for US$13 million bond coupon within grace period
China’s 5.3 per cent growth last quarter should not be viewed as a “significant slowdown”, said Kenny Ng, a strategist at Everbright Securities in Hong Kong. The country’s monetary policy is still quite accommodative and financing costs are still going down overall.
While there has been no default among onshore borrowers in the first three months of 2024, S&P said debt maturities are peaking this year at 8 trillion yuan (US$1.1 trillion). LGFVs face 3.5 trillion yuan of repayments, while the capital goods and power sectors each have 757 billion yuan and 738 billion yuan of obligations, respectively.
“Corporate debt is a rigid burden that is largely dependent on a company’s operations,” said Shen Meng, director at Beijing-based investment firm Chanson & Co. “The tightening of financing will further compress the flexibility of a company’s operations and shake the foundation of its financial stability.”
Finance
FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks muted as Trump delays strikes on Iran power plants
The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) was hovering around the flatline on Friday, while European stocks headed lower, as traders shrugged off Donald Trump’s latest pause on striking Iran’s energy infrastructure.
On Thursday night, the US president extended the deadline for Iran to open the strait of Hormuz by 10 days, meaning the new date would be 6 April. He claimed that talks were “going very well”. However, Iran denied it was “begging to make a deal”, despite Trump’s earlier claims.
It comes after Wall Street posted its biggest daily loss since the Iran war began on Thursday.
The Wall Street Journal also reported on Thursday that the US was considering sending as many as 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East.
Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, said Trump has extended the uncertainty gripping markets.
“While the rhetoric around de-escalation and dialogue is certainly preferable to outright conflict, the market appears to be growing increasingly numb to President Trump’s verbal reassurances. By extending the deadline, it effectively kicks the can down the road, pushing back any concrete resolution regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This, in turn, simply extends the uncertainty weighing on markets and the broader global economy.”
Elsewhere, UK retail sales dipped by 0.4% in February, following a rise of 2.0% in January, the Office for National Statistics revealed. In the December to February quarter, sales volumes were up 0.7% compared with the previous three months.
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London’s benchmark index (^FTSE) was hovering around the flatline in early trade
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Germany’s DAX (^GDAXI) dipped 0.5% and the CAC (^FCHI) in Paris headed 0.2% into the red
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The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) was down 0.3%
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Wall Street is set for a muted start as S&P 500 futures (ES=F), Dow futures (YM=F) and Nasdaq futures (NQ=F) were all lacklustre.
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The pound was 0.1% down against the US dollar (GBPUSD=X) at 1.3311
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Finance
NDSU College of Business launches Center for Banking and Finance
FARGO, N.D. – North Dakota State University’s College of Business has launched the Center for Banking and Finance, a new academic and industry‑engaged hub designed to prepare students for careers in banking and finance while supporting the evolving workforce needs of the region’s financial industry, a release states.
Announced during a press conference at NDSU’s Louise Auditorium at Barry Hall, the center brings together students, faculty and industry partners to expand experiential learning opportunities, strengthen connections to employers, and address emerging trends shaping the financial services industry. The center is housed within NDSU’s College of Business and builds on growing student interest in finance‑related programs.
“The Center for Banking and Finance reflects NDSU’s responsibility as a student‑focused, land‑grant, research university to respond to workforce and economic needs across our state and region,” said Interim President Rick Berg. “By connecting education, industry, and community, this center helps ensure our graduates are prepared to contribute on day one and throughout their careers.”
The center will support undergraduate and graduate students through hands‑on learning experiences, exposure to financial tools and technologies, and direct engagement with financial institutions, regulators and business leaders. It will also serve professionals already working in banking and finance through workshops, training and research‑informed programming aligned with business needs, according to the release.
“The Center for Banking and Finance is about momentum — students who are eager to learn, faculty who are pushing applied scholarship forward, and industry partners who want to shape the future workforce,” said Kathryn Birkeland, Ronald and Kaye Olson dean of the NDSU College of Business. “When education and industry move together, everyone benefits.”
The launch of the Center for Banking and Finance coincides with a series of regional events focused on finance, fintech and economic outlook, including programming with the Bank of North Dakota, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and regional business leaders. Together, these events underscore the Fargo‑Moorhead area’s role as a hub for financial dialogue, talent development and economic collaboration.
The center’s foundational banking partners include Dacotah Bank, Gate City Bank, Bell Bank and Western State Bank, who attended the launch and are helping shape early student experiences and industry-informed programming.
The center is led by Mark Jensen, a career banker and longtime adjunct instructor who joined NDSU full-time in 2026 as director of the Center for Banking and Finance.
“The Center for Banking and Finance is designed as a bridge,” Jensen said. “It brings industry into the learning experience in meaningful ways, and it gives students clearer pathways into a wide range of banking and finance careers.”
For students, the center represents a more direct bridge between academic study and professional opportunity.
“As a finance student, experiences outside the classroom make a real difference,” said Tavian Nelson, a senior at NDSU majoring in finance. “Going into college, I knew I wanted to be involved in the finance program but was unsure of what that would look like once I graduated. The school has truly shaped my desired career outcomes with many hands-on experiences, professional leaders, and connections throughout my time here. This center will truly strengthen these experiences for students.”
Initially, the center will focus on experiential learning opportunities, business partnerships and workforce‑aligned programming, with plans to expand offerings as partnerships and resources grow. The center is supported through external funding and business engagement.
Finance
Iran war could trigger financial systemic stress, ECB vice president warns
FRANKFURT, March 26 (Reuters) – Euro zone banks have limited direct exposure to the war in the Middle East, but the conflict could still generate systemic stress given interconnected vulnerabilities, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Thursday.
Financial markets have come under stress in recent weeks from the impact of the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran, but the selloff outside the Middle East has been limited, even as some assets remain overvalued.
“Spillovers to the euro area financial sector have so far remained contained,” de Guindos said in a speech. “Direct bank exposures to the region are limited, and the banking system is well positioned with strong profitability and robust capital and liquidity buffers.”
De Guindos argued that even market infrastructure operators, like central counterparties whose services include energy markets, have managed margin requirements effectively, despite the volatility.
Still, there was a broader risk, given interconnections in the financial system, said de Guindos, whose roles at the ECB include monitoring financial stability.
“Amid already elevated global uncertainty, this conflict could trigger the unravelling of interconnected vulnerabilities and cause systemic stress,” he said.
The conflict threatens to derail market sentiment at a time when asset valuations are high, potentially leading to a sharp repricing of risk for leveraged borrowers and sovereigns while amplifying stress in the non-bank financial sector, he said.
On the ECB’s core mandate of ensuring low inflation, de Guindos repeated the bank’s warning that inflation could rise and growth slow on the conflict but argued more time was needed to understand the full impact.
“We are unwavering in our commitment to ensuring that inflation stabilises at our 2% target in the medium term,” he said.
(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Toby Chopra)
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