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Brace for ‘third wave’ of China bond defaults on financing costs, tighter policies: S&P

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Brace for ‘third wave’ of China bond defaults on financing costs, tighter policies: S&P
China could face a third wave of corporate bond defaults at home and abroad this year, as high financing costs, slow economic growth and tight government policies heap pressure on the country’s weakest borrowers, S&P Global Ratings said.

Local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and consumer companies could trigger a new round of debt failures because of their bigger maturity walls and greater refinancing needs, the rating company said in a report on Tuesday. The most recent distress cases are just entering full restructuring and more will come this year, it added.

“Policies aimed at reining in excessive leverage have driven two default waves so far,” Charles Chang, S&P’s Greater China country lead for corporate ratings, said in the report. “More policies with similar aims, scale and effects may lead to the next wave of defaults.”

China’s local government financing vehicles borrow heavily to fund infrastructure projects and face a major refinancing needs this year, S&P says. Photo: Xinhua

Companies in the industrial and commodities sectors led the first wave between 2015 and 2016, when the country experienced 80 defaults triggered by excess capacity and asset management, said Chang, who co-authored the report with China country specialist Chang Li. Beijing’s “three red lines” policy has led to the second wave from 2021, with real estate developers accounting for most of the 108 default cases since, he added.

China Evergrande Group, which was ordered to liquidate in January amid an accounting scandal, first fell into distress in June 2021 after China squashed weak developers to contain systemic risks in the financial system. The cash crunch at Country Garden Holdings, once China’s largest home builder, showed the crisis has yet to run its course, S&P said in the report.

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“Market access for privately owned firms has been negative for most months since 2021,” Chang said in the report. “For LGFVs, only higher rated firms were able to issue bonds but in lower volumes. Tightened regulation has restricted the market access of weaker LGFVs.”

Still, this year may mark a trough as the repayment amount drops, S&P said. Chinese entities have US$92 billion in offshore corporate bonds coming due, compared with US$111 billion that matured in 2023 and US$104 billion that will be payable in 2025, Chang said. As a result, China’s offshore default rate has fallen to 0.3 per cent in the first quarter, from 1.3 per cent in 2023 and 6.7 per cent in 2022.

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China’s 5.3 per cent growth last quarter should not be viewed as a “significant slowdown”, said Kenny Ng, a strategist at Everbright Securities in Hong Kong. The country’s monetary policy is still quite accommodative and financing costs are still going down overall.

While there has been no default among onshore borrowers in the first three months of 2024, S&P said debt maturities are peaking this year at 8 trillion yuan (US$1.1 trillion). LGFVs face 3.5 trillion yuan of repayments, while the capital goods and power sectors each have 757 billion yuan and 738 billion yuan of obligations, respectively.

“Corporate debt is a rigid burden that is largely dependent on a company’s operations,” said Shen Meng, director at Beijing-based investment firm Chanson & Co. “The tightening of financing will further compress the flexibility of a company’s operations and shake the foundation of its financial stability.”

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Finance Secretary Marasini seeks international funds for climate action

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Finance Secretary Marasini seeks international funds for climate action

Finance Secretary Madhu Kumar Marasini has urged the Asian Development Bank and other multilateral development banks to prioritise financing for coordinated, focused, and tangible climate actions that complement current initiatives while maximising infrastructure projects that also contribute positively to climate objectives.

Marasini said Nepal’s focus is on aligning financing with the country’s current projects, improving infrastructure, and addressing climate change in an integrated manner.

“With political stability, Nepal stands at a pivotal juncture in its pursuit of economic growth and prosperity,” he said while addressing the 57th annual meetings of board of governors of the Asian Development Bank held in Tbilisi of Georgia. “The Government of Nepal is dedicated to ensuring good governance, social justice, and economic prosperity.”

He also said that Nepal’s efforts are directed towards achieving sustainable development goals, with equal emphasis on climate action, social inclusion, and economic development.

“To achieve our goals of economic prosperity, graduation from LDC status, and meeting the Sustainable Development Goals, we face a significant funding gap that cannot be filled solely through public finance,” he said. “We need to address this sizeable financing gap by leveraging investments from private capital.”

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The finance secretary informed the international community at the event about the third investment summit recently held in Kathmandu. He said the ADB can play a significant role in mobilising technical assistance and knowledge solutions to design attractive investment arrangements in sectors where Nepal has comparative advantage, such as tourism, hydropower, and information technology.

“Considering the huge financing needs and underlying fiscal challenges, I call upon the ADB and other development partners to substantially increase concessional resources,” Secretary Marasini said. “I believe Nepal’s home grown Green Resilient Inclusive Development (GRID) approach provides a partnership platform to all development partners to join hands in delivering development impact in necessary scale and speed.”

He also called for additional efforts for deeper economic integration to establish South Asia as an emerging region. “We now need to focus on enhancing connectivity, innovation, and digitalisation by leveraging our collective strength for the benefit of the entire region,” he added.

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Genpact partners with Microsoft for finance transformation across enterprises – Times of India

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Genpact partners with Microsoft for finance transformation across enterprises – Times of India
Genpact has announced a strategic collaboration with Microsoft aimed at driving modern finance transformation across enterprises worldwide. This partnership is centered on leveraging data, technology, and AI to foster innovation within finance organizations on a global scale.
This collaboration aims to combine Microsoft Azure OpenAI Service with Genpact’s extensive expertise to propel finance organizations into the future.The goal is to facilitate faster decision-making supported by a robust foundation of data and AI.
Balkrishan “BK” Kalra, President and CEO of Genpact, emphasized the company’s long-standing leadership in finance and accounting services, stating that the collaboration with Microsoft will usher in the next wave of finance transformation.
Nicole Dezen, Chief Partner Officer at Microsoft, highlighted the transformative potential of AI in the finance industry, expressing excitement about partnering with Genpact to empower finance organizations to harness the power of data for business transformation.
Genpact is not only driving transformation for its clients but also modernizing its own finance function through extensive use of Microsoft’s AI tools. By harnessing the power of data, technology, and AI, Genpact has achieved significant improvements across various areas of finance:

  • Enhanced vendor management automation with advanced AI algorithms, resulting in 85% accuracy in response and doubled supplier satisfaction.
  • Transformed customer collections process with AI-powered analytics and automation, coupled with streamlining of invoice and payment tracking.
  • Implemented a large language model-based digital assistant to streamline tax document submissions, leading to a 53% reduction in support tickets and improved employee experience.

This collaboration underscores Genpact’s commitment to AI innovation and its strategy of leveraging data, technology, AI, and strategic partnerships to drive outcomes for shareholders, clients, communities, and talent. For more information on Genpact’s partners and generative AI solutions, visit their website.

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Strong Hong Kong dollar weighing on tourist spending: finance chief Paul Chan

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Strong Hong Kong dollar weighing on tourist spending: finance chief Paul Chan

“But the external environment remains complicated and there are a lot of uncertainties,” Chan said in his weekly blog. “The US Federal Reserve last week held interest rates steady. Coupled with stubborn inflation, the market expectation for a rate cut has weakened compared with earlier this year.”

He said the conditions could “bring adverse impacts to global economic recovery, Hong Kong’s exports, as well as the sentiment of local investment and capital markets”.

The Fed announced last week it was holding its benchmark lending rate steady in the 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent range as core inflation remained above the target of 2 per cent.

Chan said the city’s tourism sector was one of the key drivers of the economy in the first quarter, but warned of the drawbacks of a strengthening Hong Kong dollar, which is pegged to the US dollar.

The number of arrivals for the first three days of the Labour Day “golden week” holiday reached nearly 650,000, up by 25 per cent against last year’s figures, he said.

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The break runs from May 1 to 5 on the mainland.

He said “changing consumption patterns among locals and tourists”, coupled with the strong Hong Kong dollar, could hit the retailing and catering sectors in particular.

Chan urged companies to develop new products and to embrace technology.

Finance minister Paul Chan attends the annual meeting of the board of governors of the Asian Development Bank in Tbilisi, Georgia. Photo: ISD

“New products can not only meet the changing needs of consumers, but also create demand and thus boost sales,” he said. “As for new ways of management, companies can lower costs and enhance efficiency by adopting more digital solutions.”

Chan was attending the annual meeting of the board of governors of the Asian Development Bank in Tbilisi, Georgia, which is themed “From Billions to Trillions – Promoting Private Sector Development for Climate Change”.

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He said many participants were interested in the development of Hong Kong’s digital economy, as well as the innovation and technology sector.

Chan said at the plenary session a huge funding gap of trillions of US dollars existed for climate and transition investments, as well as in helping developed and developing economies in climate financing.

He urged members to work together to mobilise private sector resources and channel funds to support green and climate transition projects through innovative financial products and services.

In his weekly blog post, Chan also noted Hong Kong’s gross domestic product had increased for five consecutive quarters, expanding 2.7 per cent year-on-year in the first three months of the year.

The city’s benchmark Hang Seng Index also gained almost 14 per cent recently, while the property market had become more active after authorities scrapped cooling measures in February.

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