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What Happened to Enrollment at Top Colleges After Affirmative Action Ended

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What Happened to Enrollment at Top Colleges After Affirmative Action Ended

After the Supreme Court ended race-conscious college admissions in 2023, the 2024-25 academic year was seen as a kind of test: What effect would the decision have on freshman classes?

At the start of the school year, the Upshot asked selective colleges for the racial and ethnic composition of their incoming classes. We obtained this data for 66 colleges, allowing us to put together the most detailed look yet at how the makeup of these colleges changed after the end of affirmative action.

While it’s still early to draw definitive conclusions — it will be years before we understand the full impact of the ban — here are three things we learned.

1. Black and Hispanic enrollment declined on average

One of the arguments for affirmative action was that it helped compensate for disadvantages faced by Black and Hispanic students, and that without it, their enrollment would fall. So did that happen?

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Black and Hispanic students have historically been underrepresented at selective colleges compared with their share of high school graduates. Over the past decade and a half, their numbers have gradually risen at selective colleges.

That changed in 2024.

Average share of Black students

Of the 66 colleges for which we have data, 59 reported it in a standard format that let us make comparisons with past public records. That format narrowly defines Black students as U.S. residents who are Black but not Hispanic or multiracial — which means it’s an undercount of all students who identify as Black, even as it allows for a straightforward comparison with past data.

By that definition, the average share of incoming Black students at those colleges dropped by about one percentage point — from about 7 percent to 6 percent.

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The share of incoming Hispanic students at these colleges also fell by nearly one percentage point — from about 14 percent to 13 percent.

Average share of Hispanic students

Together, these changes represent the largest annual drop in the average share of Black or Hispanic students across these colleges since 2010.

Outcomes varied across individual colleges. Some experienced large drops in their shares of Black or Hispanic students, while others experienced modest changes or even increases (we have more details on this variation below).

But the overall trend was downward: In 2024, 17 of these 59 colleges experienced their largest drops in Black enrollment in 14 years, while only three had their largest gains. Similarly, 15 colleges had their largest drops in Hispanic enrollment in over a decade, while four had their largest gains.

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2. The data didn’t show a comparable increase in Asian and white enrollment

Over the 14 years for which we have data, the share of white students has decreased at selective colleges — in part reflecting the changing demographics of America’s youth.

Asian students are overrepresented at selective colleges compared with the makeup of high school graduates. Their share of college enrollment has continued to rise in the past 14 years.

Critics of affirmative action argued that it suppressed the share of Asian and white students at top colleges. There was a broad expectation that banning race-conscious admissions would drive up Asian and white enrollment.

We didn’t see sizable changes.

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Average share of Asian students

Among domestic first-year students at 59 colleges

Source: 59 colleges that reported data in a format used by the government (2023–24);
National Center for Education Statistics (2010–22)

Note: The share represents Asian students who are not Hispanic or multiracial and, in most cases, does not include Native Hawaiians or other Pacific Islanders, following federal reporting categories.

Across the 59 selective colleges we could compare with historical data, the average share of Asian students was essentially unchanged.

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And the average share of white students increased by under one percentage point.

Average share of white students

There were outliers, of course: The share of incoming domestic Asian students at Johns Hopkins rose by 18 percentage points, and the share of incoming domestic white students at Middlebury rose by 10 percentage points.

The findings by race and ethnicity so far raise a question: College enrollment is zero sum, so if the Black and Hispanic share went down, why didn’t the white and Asian share rise similarly?

Our third finding helps explain this discrepancy.

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3. Many more students did not disclose their race in 2024

In 2024, the share of students at these 59 colleges who did not disclose their race or ethnicity increased from about 2 percent to 4 percent. That share had been generally declining since 2010.

Average share of students who didn’t report their race

This means we don’t definitively know how much of the changes that we see in 2024 are caused by genuine shifts in racial makeup, and how much are because students didn’t report their race.

Others have tried to answer this question. A 2020 study by the economist Zachary Bleemer found that after California banned affirmative action in public universities in 1998, more than twice as many applicants to the University of California system left out their race or ethnicity on their applications the following year.

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By using their name, high school and neighborhood to infer their race, he estimated that the vast majority of the students who left out their race were white or Asian.

“Is this true again today? I don’t know for sure, but I think it’s a good guess,” Professor Bleemer said.

If most of the students who left out their race were white or Asian — perhaps out of wariness of the admissions process amid heightened media coverage of affirmative action — the charts above wouldn’t fully reflect the rise in their share. But it’s also possible that the lessons from California don’t apply here.

“It’s important to be careful not to speculate too much about who the unknowns are,” said James Murphy, who directs postsecondary policy at Education Reform Now and has been tracking the effects of the ban. “This is a very unusual year.”

By contrast, in 2014 there was a dip in the number of students who didn’t report a race. Those students would have applied after the Supreme Court decided a high-profile case about race-based college admissions, essentially allowing the practice to continue. The reasons for that dip are ultimately mysterious as well.

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The share of multiracial students at these colleges declined in 2024 by about half a percentage point. Previously, multiracial students made up an increasing share of college enrollment.

Average share of multiracial students

Because the available data doesn’t get any more granular, this decline could reflect any of several things: a smaller number of multiracial Black or Hispanic students enrolling, a tendency for students to leave out their race altogether, or fewer multiracial white students listing a second race, for example. In time, we may understand these shifts better as researchers pore through additional data.

But the overall picture resists simple generalizations.

A wide variation in outcomes

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The charts above show the average enrollment. But as mentioned, there’s a wide spread in the outcomes at individual colleges.

In addition to the 59 colleges that reported their enrollment figures in the standard format used by the government, seven (Barnard, Brown, Columbia, Duke, Harvard, M.I.T. and Yale) reported their enrollment figures using a different method. For completeness, we included those colleges in the charts below.

You can select a circle to see more about that college.

Change in the share of Black students, from fall 2023 to fall 2024

Among domestic first-year students at 66 colleges

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Source: Data from 59 colleges that used federal categories for race and
seven that used a different reporting method.

Circle sizes are based on enrollment of first-year domestic students in fall 2023. Positions of
circles are approximate.

Change in the share of Hispanic students, from fall 2023 to fall 2024

Among domestic first-year students at 66 colleges

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Source: Data from 59 colleges that used federal categories for race and
seven that used a different reporting method.

Circle sizes are based on enrollment of first-year domestic students in fall 2023. Positions of
circles are approximate.

Change in the share of Asian students, from fall 2023 to fall 2024

Among domestic first-year students at 66 colleges

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Source: Data from 59 colleges that used federal categories for race and
seven that used a different reporting method.

Circle sizes are based on enrollment of first-year domestic students in fall 2023. Positions of
circles are approximate.

Change in the share of white students, from fall 2023 to fall 2024

Among domestic first-year students at 65 colleges

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Source: Data from 59 colleges that used federal categories for race and
six that used a different reporting method.

Circle sizes are based on enrollment of first-year domestic students in fall 2023. Positions of
circles are approximate.

Change in the share of students who didn’t provide a race, from fall 2023 to fall 2024

Among domestic first-year students at 65 colleges

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Source: Data from 59 colleges that used federal categories for race and
six that used a different reporting method.

Circle sizes are based on enrollment of first-year domestic students in fall 2023. Positions of
circles are approximate.

Some caveats

Although this data offers a detailed look at shifts in enrollment, there are several caveats.

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For one thing, the data for 2024 is preliminary — we collected it before colleges were required to submit these figures to the government. And as we noted, many more students didn’t disclose their race in 2024.

Here are a few more notes of caution:

1. There were problems signing up for financial aid in 2024.

A new application system for a federal program that tens of millions rely on for financial aid faced major problems in 2024, which may have altered the pool of college applicants.

2. We have only one year of post-affirmative-action data.

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A single year of data isn’t a lot. Colleges are still making sense of the Supreme Court’s decision, and exploring ways to create a diverse college class without affirmative action. It will be a few years before we gain a more comprehensive picture.

3. Enrollment isn’t admissions.

To enroll in a college, three things have to happen: A student has to apply, be admitted and decide to attend. We have only a picture of college enrollment — which combines all three steps.

So we can’t yet disentangle how much of these shifts are because of changes in admissions (which the Supreme Court’s decision directly affects), versus changes in who decided to apply beforehand or who decided to accept afterward.

For now, with these caveats in mind, you can go through the enrollment data for the colleges that we analyzed below.

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Look up a college

For the 59 colleges that reported enrollment using the federal categories for race, you can look up how their racial makeup has changed over time below:

Share of first-year domestic students at Air Force

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Source: United States Air Force Academy (2023–2024); National Center for Education Statistics (2010–2022)

Note: Data for 2024 is preliminary. Shares of American Indian, Alaska Native and Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander students are not shown. Download the data.

About the data

The Upshot asked for data from 91 selective colleges: those in the most selective tier in Barron’s selectivity index as well as the top 33 national universities and top 30 colleges in the 2024 U.S. News ranking.

We requested data on the racial makeup of incoming first-year students in fall 2023 and fall 2024 in at least one of two formats — the method used by the government in which totals add up to 100 percent, and a second format based on the Common Application, where students can be listed in more than one category and the totals exceed 100 percent.

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Over 50 colleges sent us this data, and we obtained it from the websites of several others. We excluded some colleges that either shared data with inconsistencies or left out race shares, leaving us with a data set of 66 colleges.

For the colleges that reported data using the government format, we merged their data with past annual records of fall enrollment by race from 2010 onward, obtained from the National Center for Education Statistics Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System. In a few instances, the federal data for fall 2023 listed fewer students of unknown race than the data that colleges sent us, and in these instances we used the federal data instead.

When calculating average race shares in the charts above, we used an unweighted average, meaning that each college was counted equally in the average, regardless of size.

For the 59 colleges that reported enrollment data using federal race categories, you can download the compiled data from 2010 to 2024.

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Education

She Tried to Help Schools Build Healthier Playgrounds. Then Her E.P.A. Grant Was Canceled.

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She Tried to Help Schools Build Healthier Playgrounds. Then Her E.P.A. Grant Was Canceled.

Lost Science is an ongoing series of accounts from scientists who have lost their jobs or funding after cuts by the Trump administration. The conversations have been edited for clarity and length. Here’s why we’re doing this.


Kirsten Beyer: We had a three-year study, funded by the Environmental Protection Agency, focused on environmental health among children. We had two main aims. The first was to develop a curriculum so that Milwaukee Public Schools teachers could teach about environmental health, environmental health disparities and climate change.

The second aim was to look at the impact of schoolyard greening on health and environmental outcomes. There’s this greening initiative in Milwaukee to redevelop schoolyards. Many of them were sheets of asphalt. A lot of them were in disrepair. The redevelopment plans included things like planting trees, adding outdoor classrooms, improving storm water drainage with green infrastructure and improving sports fields and natural play spaces.

We built a study to collect data before and after. There are lots of schools around the country that have similar situations, so we were excited about sharing our results and informing other jurisdictions about the impact of this redevelopment.

We had the kids complete surveys. We measured things like social and emotional health, environmental health literacy, attitudes toward outdoor play. We also had sensors that measured their physical activity levels, time spent outdoors and where they spent time in the schoolyard. We went out and observed recess. How are kids playing? How is conflict being resolved? How engaged are the teachers or monitors? We measured air pollution and how hot those schoolyards were before greening.

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We were in the field in May 2025, collecting our final post-redevelopment data, when the grant was canceled. It was a shock. We had hired people as data collectors and had a month of data collection left.

I decided to rustle up some other resources just to get data collection done. But then we had no more money to support our community partners, staff or graduate students. We had to take people off this project.

Now we’re trying to do something with all of this data that we’ve collected: process it, analyze it and, importantly, share it.

We have just piles of data. There are papers that won’t get written and data that won’t be shared because this happened.

But I can’t just abandon this work. This is important to my community partners. This is important to other schools. And this is important to all of the kids who gave us their time, all the parents who allowed us to do research with their kids. There’s a moral imperative to continue the work, albeit slowly.

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Kirsten Beyer is a health geographer at the Medical College of Wisconsin.

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Art Abounds on Campuses Outside of New York City

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Art Abounds on Campuses Outside of New York City

The Princeton University Art Museum recently made Time magazine’s top 100 list of The World’s Greatest Places of 2026. James Steward, director of the museum that reopened on Halloween in an acclaimed new building designed by Adjaye Associates, said of the ranking, “It normalizes the idea that we are a world-class destination.”

In its first five months alone, the museum has received 250,000 visitors — more than half from outside campus (Princeton’s old museum averaged 200,000 annually).

The surge of public interest in the Princeton museum’s new home, spotlighting a global collection of more than 117,000 objects, is a timely reminder that university and college art museums are filled with unexpected treasures — often showcased in architecturally significant buildings — and are free and accessible to all. Here are several standout exhibitions at academic museums in range of New York City that are worth a visit this month, when campuses are looking their spring best for reunions and graduations.

The glorious modernist home of the Yale Center for British Art — Louis I. Kahn’s last design, completed in 1977 after his death — reopened in March 2025 after a two-year architectural conservation. In the year since, the museum has welcomed 100,000 visitors and almost 300 class visits to study its collection of more than 100,000 works from the 15th century to today that present an expansive understanding of British art and its imperial history.

“British art isn’t an island story, it’s a global story,” said Martina Droth, the center’s director. A contemporary installation by Rina Banerjee, a recent acquisition on view for the first time through Sept. 13 in the museum’s entrance court, and the exhibition “Painters, Ports, and Profits: Artists and the East India Company, 1750-1850,” up through June 21, both speak to a deep connection to India.

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“If British art is shaped by movement and exchange, then in ‘Painters, Ports, and Profits’ you see British artists who traveled to India because of the East India Company and found themselves working alongside Indian artists,” Droth said. “New things happen in terms of the aesthetics of the work, and you can really see that in the exhibition.”

The 115 works are mostly drawn from the collection and almost half are by Indian artists and workshops, including “Lucknow from the Gomti,” a 37-foot panoramic scroll of life along the river in that city in Northern India and a star of the show.

Banerjee, who was born in Kolkata and lived in London before moving to New York, has remade the form of the Taj Mahal in hot-pink semi-translucent plastic. Visible from the street through the glass doors and dangling from the ceiling, her playful floating sculptural palace allows visitors to enter and discover all sorts of colonial relics and commercial baubles embedded within.

The Johnson Museum opened in 1973 in an I.M. Pei-designed building, which rises seven stories and frames spectacular views of the landscape with its expansive vertical and horizontal windows and fifth floor cantilevered over an open porch. The global collection numbers more than 40,000 objects, with particular strength in Asian art, and college classes made 335 visits in the last academic year.

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Students from Cornell’s College of Agriculture and Life Sciences have spent considerable time with the exhibition “Naples: Course of Empire,” a series of seven panoramic canvases by Alexis Rockman on view through June 7, according to the museum’s curator of modern and contemporary art, Andrea Inselmann. Over the last four decades, Rockman has been a leading voice in the art world raising awareness about climate change through his paintings focused on all forms of life on Earth.

The works in this show were “inspired by Thomas Cole’s 19th-century cycle ‘The Course of Empire’ about the rise and fall of civilizations,” said Inselmann, who organized the exhibition. Taking Naples as a case study of a port city vulnerable to rising waters, Rockman used his signature style of deeply researched and lyrically rendered history painting to reimagine this landscape over geologic time starting from the Mesozoic Era. Paintings depict animals fleeing the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 A.D.; a rat flying over Naples spewing a noxious plume during the bubonic plague of the 1650s; and a whale breaching before the ruins of the city in a speculative post-human future.

“I thought this would be a very appropriate show for a college context,” Inselmann said. “Especially for younger generations, I think it provides a context and an environment to talk about climate change and to express their anxieties or their hopes for the future.”

On Skidmore’s campus in Saratoga Springs, famous for its horse racing and natural mineral springs, the Tang punches above its weight for a small liberal arts college museum with an ambitious exhibition program in a striking building designed by Antoine Predock. The museum generates about a dozen shows annually — often from its collection of nearly 20,000 objects, with strengths in contemporary art and photography — and drew more than 220 class visits from across disciplines this school year.

Anchoring the Tang’s 25th anniversary season this spring is “Kathy Butterly: Assume Yes,” a three-decade retrospective of the artist’s playful, inventive and sometimes jarring small-scale ceramic sculptures on view through July 26. “Kathy bridges the generation of Robert Arneson and Viola Frey, who were her teachers and innovators that moved ceramics from a purely craft environment to a museum and art conversation, and the world we’re in today where we see ceramics in lots of different ways all over gallery exhibitions,” said the Tang director Ian Berry, who organized the show. “Kathy is a real inspiration and key figure for this current moment.”

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Forty-five of her eccentric vessels — miniature three-dimensional canvases for experimental glazes and textures, often crumpling expressively on their bases — are grouped chronologically across three huge platforms serving as the “rooms” of the show. Within the constraints of small shifts in scale, from four to eight inches say, “an entire universe changes,” Berry said. The title of the show comes from one of Butterly’s works. “‘Assume’ adds a little twist to the exclamation point of ‘Yes’,” he said. “It’s optimistic, it’s upbeat, but also it has a complexity to it.”

Alongside Princeton’s encyclopedic collections, displayed throughout the museum’s stunning complex of nine interlocking modernist pavilions, is “Willem de Kooning: The Breakthrough Years, 1945-50” — the first temporary loan exhibition in the new building — on view through July 26.

The show is built around Princeton’s own 1948 painting “Black Friday” — exhibited that year in de Kooning’s debut show at the Charles Egan Gallery in New York after he had struggled there in poverty for 15 years.

“It emerged as one of the essential pictures in de Kooning’s career,” said Steward, Princeton’s museum director, who agreed to loan “Black Friday” to the Museum of Modern Art for its major de Kooning retrospective in 2011 organized by the chief curator emeritus of painting and sculpture, John Elderfield.

Now, in turn, Elderfield has co-curated this exhibition of 18 paintings, drawn from more than a dozen museums and private collections and focused on the pivotal period when de Kooning found his artistic voice and helped to pioneer Abstract Expressionism.

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“It is just such an incisive project that is physically modest in scope, but not modest at all intellectually or artistically,” Steward said. “That’s a sweet spot I really want us to occupy as a great academic museum.”

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Education

Today, In Short

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Today, In Short

One of my favorite podcasts is “So True With Caleb Hearon,” hosted by Hearon, a comedian. He recently appeared in “The Devil Wears Prada 2” as Miranda Priestly’s assistant. Having grown up, as Hearon put it, “fat, gay and poor” in rural Missouri, he never dreamed of booking the role “a million girls would kill for.”

Read more.


  • Middle East: Iran said yesterday that it was reviewing an American proposal to end the war. Washington is still awaiting Tehran’s response.

  • California: Last night was the final televised debate before the primary for the state’s governor. The face-off between seven candidates was tame at first, but they eventually furiously attacked one another. See what went down.

  • Hantavirus: Should you worry? Public health officials say the threat to the general public remains low based on what we know. Read more about the hantavirus.

  • Jeffrey Epstein: A federal judge released a suicide note believed to be written by the convicted sex offender that had been sealed for years.

  • Ted Turner: Turner, the media mogul, yachtsman and creator of CNN, died yesterday at his home in Florida. He was 87.


A few things you didn’t really need to know but now do:

  • It’s been nearly 20 years since Guy Goma’s BBC appearance became an early viral internet moment. Goma thought he was interviewing for a job when he suddenly he found himself on air. He pulled it off much better than I could have.

  • How are people getting their information about health and wellness? For at least half of U.S. adults under 50, it’s through influencers or podcasters, according to a new analysis.

  • Clavicular, the looksmaxxing influencer, has been charged with shooting at an alligator during a livestream.


The New York Knicks hung on to the series lead in a 108-102 thriller against the Philadelphia 76ers. Game 3 is set for tomorrow in Philadelphia.

Read more.

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Nineteen books were recognized as winners or finalists of the Pulitzer Prize. I may add some to my reading list.

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