Science
The Next Threat to L.A.? Rainfall That Could Cause Landslides
While winds and flames continued to ravage Los Angeles, small teams began creeping onto the charred soils left in their wake.
Roughly a dozen members of the California Watershed Emergency Response Teams and the United States Forest Service are studying the edges of the Eaton and Palisades fires to determine what patches of land burned most severely. Soon, they’ll issue hazard maps to help people prepare for what comes next: the near-certain threat of floods and landslides that will loom for days, months and even years while the city recovers.
“After a wildfire, the hazard to the public is not over,” said Jeremy Lancaster, California’s state geologist. He and his team spent Wednesday hiking in the steep canyons that flank the San Gabriel and Santa Monica Mountains. When it rains hard enough, the sediment on slopes like these can swiftly tumble downhill onto houses that increasingly push up against the fire-prone foothills.
The two major hazards after a wildfire are flash flooding and post-fire debris flows. While spongy soils typically absorb water, burned soils can become hard packed like concrete, repelling water as a raincoat would. Water then funnels downslope without much, or any, vegetation left after a fire to keep it in check.
Hazard maps use a combination of satellite images and field testing of soils to show where patches of moderately to severely burned soils could make these post-fire risks more likely. Recommendations for emergency services to engineer barricades against the danger accompany the maps.
The Palisades burn map was released on Thursday, and the Eaton map is still under review. Experts said the Palisades fire had mostly low to moderate burn severity, while the Eaton fire was likely to have more moderate to high burn severity.
Debris flows require three ingredients — steep slopes, burned soils and rain — and they’re often more dangerous than floods because the sediment they draw in claws at the landscape, creating a snowball effect that pulls a tumult of trees, vegetation, soil, rocks and anything else in its way.
“A debris flow is like a flood on steroids,” said Jason Kean, a research hydrologist with the United States Geological Survey. “It’s all bulked up with rocks and mud and trees.” While floods often have a longer reach, water churns faster in debris flows, which are less common but more destructive.
After the Thomas fire in 2017, a debris flow in Montecito, Calif., killed 23 people and damaged or destroyed more than 400 homes.
Neither homeowners’ insurance nor federal flood insurance covers the impact to properties of debris flows, which are defined by the Geologic Survey as landslides.
The fire-flood cycle is a long-studied relationship, but scientists say a warming planet has made the post-fire threat more likely. Fires burn bigger and more severely. Rains hit harder and more often. Those changes expand the target area for post-fire hazards, which could increase the size and the frequency of floods and flows.
“The fire scientists are telling us that wildfires are increasing in size and severity,” Dr. Kean said. “From that fact alone, you’re exposing more terrain and making more terrain vulnerable to post-fire problems.”
With a dangerous combination of very steep terrain, lots of sediment, high-fire activity and a lot of people pushed up against the mountains, Los Angeles faces an extreme risk.
“The Los Angeles area and Southern California are the world capital for post-fire debris flows,” Dr. Kean said.
Debris flows are so common in Los Angeles that at the edge of the San Gabriel Mountains, where the Eaton fire burned, the state has carved debris basins to collect waste from major flow events. In Southern California, more than two million people live on alluvial fans, landforms that are conducive to flash floods and debris flows, according to Dr. Lancaster.
The National Weather Service in Los Angeles collaborated with the Geological Survey to start the nation’s first early warning systems for these post-fire hazards in 2005. The geological survey sets a rainfall threshold that could set off landslides, and the Weather Service issues a warning if the rainfall they expect nears or surpasses it.
Jayme Laber, a senior hydrologist with the Los Angeles forecast office, has spent the last two decades issuing such warnings. While there’s still no sign of rain in the seven to 10 day forecast he issued on Wednesday, a garden-variety rainstorm that Angelenos see at least once or twice a year could be enough to kick off the next wave of hazards, which can develop within minutes.
“In a burned area, the kind of rain that would not cause problems would be a really light drizzly rain that just goes on and on,” Mr. Laber said. But at some point this winter, he added, “we’re going to get rainfall that has the potential to cause flash flooding and debris flows in these newly burned areas.”
This video of a small debris flow from 2016, which is close to the site of the current Eaton fire, shows how quickly large objects, like a six-foot boulder, can be sent rushing downhill.
Mr. Laber advised residents to prepare in case of a future evacuation, monitor the forecast and pay attention to local emergency officials if a warning is issued.
Science
China Launches Reusable Rocket in Race With SpaceX
Video released by Chinese state media shows a state-owned aerospace company launching a rocket and recovering part of it on Friday. The successful launch of a reusable rocket was a major step for China toward challenging SpaceX’s satellite internet dominance.
Science
Nobel Prize winner leaving UC Berkeley for new role in China
Nobel Prize recipient Omar Yaghi is leaving his role at UC Berkeley to lead the development of a new artificial intelligence institute at Tsinghua University in Beijing, the Chinese university announced.
Yaghi will head the AI Chemistry and Materials Research Institute at Tsinghua, where he was appointed an honorary professor in 2022. Known as AIMATRY (AI × Materials × Chemistry), the new center will focus on material design and synthesis through artificial intelligence, according to a statement from the university.
In 2025, Yaghi shared the Nobel Prize in chemistry with Susumu Kitagawa of Kyoto University and Richard Robson of the University of Melbourne for their development of metal-organic frameworks, a type of super-porous material in which metal ions and carbon-based molecules combine to form crystals with exceptionally large surface areas.
The material has the potential to combat climate change by capturing and storing carbon or other pollutants, and by extracting water from the atmosphere in water-scarce areas. Upon awarding the prize, a member of the Nobel committee likened the technology’s ability to store enormous amounts of stuff in seemingly compact spaces to Hermione Granger’s enchanted handbag in the Harry Potter series.
Yaghi’s Irvine-based company, Atoco, has said it will start taking orders later this year for its technology that harvests water from the air.
A representative for Yaghi said he was not yet available to respond to questions.
China is one of several countries that has been actively recruiting scientists from the U.S., where the Trump administration has slashed science funding, suspended research grants, fired science advisors and tightened immigration restrictions.
“For many, many years, our funding was very competitive; if you worked hard and you were doing good research, you would get funding,” Yaghi said of the U.S. in an interview with Scientific American earlier this year. “The current state is not so encouraging because of the cutting back on grants and support of science by the very agencies that many university researchers rely on.”
Yaghi was born in Jordan to Palestinian refugees, and immigrated to the U.S. when he was 15 to study.
“We’ve learned over and over in human civilization that scholars can move across borders,” Yaghi told the New York Times last year. “This is how knowledge spread and how vast regions of the world lifted themselves out of poverty.”
Science
Trump administration seeks to limit federal funding that doesn’t ‘advance’ presidential policies
A new rule proposed by the White House Office of Management and Budget would fundamentally overhaul the way federal grants are awarded and overseen — a sweeping change that one scientific society said “would all but end the use of scientific merit in the selection of grants and programs across the government.”
Proposed in late May, the rule would give political appointees unprecedented control over federal grants for research, education and infrastructure, and specifies that government funds can only be spent on projects “aligned with administration policies and priorities,” according to a copy of the proposed rule.
The rule would also restrict research topics, limit U.S. scientists’ ability to collaborate with colleagues in other countries and make it easier for the government to suspend or cancel grants at any time.
The changes are intended to improve “transparency, accountability, and oversight for Federal awards” while “ensuring that American tax dollars are not wasted or misused,” according to the White House office.
But critics say that if the rule is implemented, the final sign-off for grants will no longer be in the hands of subject-matter experts within individual agencies, but in those of political appointees.
“This touches all parts of American life,” said Dr. Eric Rafla-Yuan, a psychiatrist who practices at the Veterans Administration and San Diego County’s psychiatric hospital.
“Control of how all of the federal grants and programs are funded will fall under a small group of highly partisan individuals who would have very few limits on how they spend these billions of taxpayer dollars,” said Rafla-Yuan, who also chairs the Committee to Protect Public Mental Health advocacy group. “This touches everyone’s life, even if they don’t realize it.”
OMB published the proposed rule May 29, opening a 45-day comment period that closes July 13.
Opposition to the proposed rule has mobilized multiple sectors of society. Professional groups representing cancer researchers, civil engineers, county governments, medical schools, housing agencies, city and municipal governments, nonprofits and others have publicly expressed concerns about potential consequences.
By midday Thursday, the Federal Register logged nearly 100,000 comments about the proposal, many of them expressing concern.
“I understand the need for oversight, fiscal responsibility, and accountability. That is not the issue,” wrote Jack Feldman, a neuroscientist who holds the David Geffen School of Medicine Chair in Neuroscience at UCLA. “The issue is whether scientific research is to be judged by scientific merit, or whether it can be approved, denied, or terminated according to broad political criteria that may change from one administration to the next.”
Crucially, the rule converts policies governing federal grants from “guidance” into binding regulations that all agencies would be required to follow. It would give political appointees power to override federal agencies’ merit-based reviews and mandate that a political appointee review decisions to ensure that all awards “demonstrably advance the President’s policy priorities.”
The elevation of political appointees in what were previously merit-based decisions has alarmed many scientists.
“The proposed rule changes would all but end the use of scientific merit in the selection of grants and programs across the government,” read a statement from the Planetary Society, a nonprofit dedicated to space research.
Researchers and science groups have also expressed concern about a section of the rule prohibiting the promotion of “theories of disparate-impact liability” — a legal concept that refers to policies that appear neutral but cause disproportionate harm to certain groups.
The section’s vague language and many loopholes could have a chilling effect on any research that studies the effects of a disease, policy or public health intervention on any specific group of people, Rafla-Yuan said.
As an example, he said, “if there’s a specific age range that is at higher risk for suicide, and we want to figure out, well, what’s going on with people that are aged 14 to 19 … we can’t do that under the wording in this rule.”
New restrictions on collaborations with scientists in other countries would hinder opportunities for U.S. researchers and limit innovation, said Joanne Padrón Carney, chief government relations officer for the American Assn. for the Advancement of Science.
“Science is a global enterprise. Especially in biomedical and public health fields, diseases don’t care about borders or government policies,” she said.
California’s congressional delegation sent a letter Wednesday asking OMB to rescind the proposal, outlining concerns about its impact on scientific innovation, U.S. competitiveness and the fiscal stability of local governments, many of which rely on federal grants for local services.
The proposed rule grants the federal government broad powers to suspend or cancel grants for any reason, introducing “unprecedented unpredictability into local governance,” the lawmakers wrote, “leaving vital infrastructure projects unfinished and abandoning vulnerable populations who rely on these services.”
Republican Sen. Susan Collins has also asked the White House to withdraw certain parts of the letter and extend the public comment period, saying the proposed rule as written would “harm small and rural communities, undermine scientific and biomedical research, and conflict with Congress’ control over the federal funding process.”
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