Education
Report Projecting Drop in Freshman Enrollment Delivered Incorrect Findings
An error in the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s projection of the number of first-year students starting college last fall caused the organization to report incorrectly that freshman enrollment last year had dropped when in fact it had increased, its director said in a statement this week.
By mistakenly mislabeling a number of first-year college students as high school students taking college or university courses, the center said it underestimated the true number of incoming college students. That led it to erroneously project the largest drop in freshman enrollment since 2020 in a report it published in October.
The acknowledgment on Monday amounted to a reversal of the report’s top-line findings. Those conclusions fed into anxieties in higher education about long-term challenges, including a coming “demographic cliff” caused by a drop in births during the Great Recession and more general doubt about the value of a college degree.
The report was based on preliminary enrollment data that the research center gathered from slightly more than half of all U.S. colleges and universities. After catching its error, the center said it expected to show that enrollment had risen in a report next Thursday, which includes data from nearly all institutions of higher education.
It said that the error had affected previous reports as well, but that “the effect was magnified” last year because of an unusually large number of dual-enrolled high school students. That may have obscured the fact that the number was inflated even more by the center’s overcount.
“The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center acknowledges the importance and significance of its role in providing accurate and reliable research to the higher education community,” the center’s executive director, Doug Shapiro, said in a statement. “We deeply regret this error and are conducting a thorough review to understand the root cause and implement measures to prevent such occurrences in the future.”
The faulty numbers were reported by a wide range of news media and trade publications, including The New York Times.
The National Student Clearinghouse, founded in 1993, is a nonprofit that provides services to thousands of U.S. institutions of higher learning, including by maintaining student records and enrollment, degree and student loan data.
While it walked back its conclusions about freshman and dual-enrolled students on Monday, the center said its other findings — including that total undergraduate enrollment had increased — remained sound.
The report last fall also raised alarms that a comparatively tumultuous year for college students applying for federal financial aid might have led to a significant number of students postponing or abandoning college.
Concerns about how the problematic rollout of the Free Application for Federal Student Aid early last year would affect college enrollment left many schools and higher education groups nervously anticipating the center’s October findings.
In a statement on Monday, the Education Department’s under secretary, James Kvaal, said officials were “encouraged and relieved” by the revised assessment.
“The increase is consistent with what we are seeing on the financial aid side: More than 5 percent more students are receiving federal aid this year,” the statement said. “Thank you to the high schools, college counselors, colleges and universities, and community organizations for pulling together to help students and families through a tough year.”
When the report was published in October, the department did not directly dispute its conclusions, but provided a list of other factors that could have explained the apparent decline.
Those included a longer-term downward trend in undergraduate enrollment as documented by the National Center for Education Statistics, a strong labor market drawing high school students directly into the work force and falling rates of college attainment among men.
The revised numbers expected next week instead suggest a modest recovery in the number of students starting college after a steep drop-off during the pandemic, according to the research center’s statement.
Education
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Education
How a Recent College Graduate Lives on $18 Per Hour in the East Bronx
How can people possibly afford to live in one of the most expensive cities on the planet? It’s a question New Yorkers hear a lot, often delivered with a mix of awe, pity and confusion.
We surveyed hundreds of New Yorkers about how they spend, splurge and save. We found that many people — rich, poor or somewhere in between — live life as a series of small calculations that add up to one big question: What makes living in New York worth it?
Jaden Baldeon is a recent college graduate who is trying to carve a life out for himself while making sure his family has a good one, too. And at 20 years old, he is one of the newest entrants to the city’s work force who is feeling its high prices most acutely.
He lives at home with his mother and two siblings in a two-bedroom apartment in the East Bronx. He makes $18 per hour working part-time at a swimming school and makes roughly $550 biweekly, contributing about half of that each month to household expenses.
Now that classes are over, the weather is warming and more people are heading to the pool, he plans to increase his hours to full-time, from 30 to more than 40 hours. He hopes to do so to keep his family members from feeling the worst of the cash crunch.
“As soon as I hit 18, a lot of the adult responsibilities have come into play,” he said, adding that he and his mother have had a lot of conversations about budgeting and spending.
As the son of immigrants from the Dominican Republic and El Salvador, Mr. Baldeon said he feels the pressure to succeed, especially because many of his relatives worked full-time by the time they were his age.
He added that he feels he is “breaking barriers” by earning his associate of liberal arts degree. He received the degree in May from Seton College at the University of Mount Saint Vincent, which offers a debt-free two-year degree and provides students with financial literacy education, access to free meals and a laptop. He is considering returning to the university in the fall to continue studies for his undergraduate degree.
His college experience and home life have taught him the real value of a dollar — and helped him find new ways to save for the life he wants.
“You don’t want to live and just be surviving. You want to have nice things,” he said. “That’s what it’s been: balancing both of those things and trying to help out here and there.”
A Tight Schedule
Maintaining a strict daily regimen has helped Mr. Baldeon budget and track his spending. For most of the final months of the spring semester, he planned out his daily schedule to determine whether he would use public transportation from his home in the Bronx to classes on campus in Riverdale, which costs roughly $6 round trip, or take his university’s free shuttle.
On the weekends, he works part-time at the Goldfish Swim School in New Rochelle, where he earns about $18 an hour doing tech support, membership management and front desk check-ins. He commutes to work using Metro-North, which costs roughly $7.00 per round-trip ticket. (He keeps an eye out for the less expensive off-peak tickets, too.)
But even his best-laid plans come against the realities of commuting in the city.
“Transportation is kind of a gamble,” he said, noting the occasional schedule delays and lack of available seating. “So sometimes I just have to opt for an emergency cab.”
When he returns home from classes late at night or if he works a late shift, he sometimes chooses a ride-share service and has an Uber One membership to help secure a lower price for cars, which can cost $40 or more during rush hour. If a ride home is more expensive, he uses local car service alternatives in his neighborhood that are discounted and allow cash payments.
A Model Saver
Living at home has helped Mr. Baldeon save on housing while in college and take some of the financial strain off his mother. He said that he contributes most often to household goods and regularly uses coupons to get them at even more of a discount.
He most often buys paper goods and also helps buy groceries, which gives his family more of a financial cushion to enjoy better-quality items and opt more often for fresh produce over canned or frozen. Recently, he started buying laundry detergent in bulk from local vendors rather than directly from the store, allowing his family to save around $10 dollars and get a larger supply.
Student discounts help, too: Mr. Baldeon recently opened a student Discover card to build credit and used the card to buy a special mop for the floors in his home. His student email address has helped him get discounts on audiobooks, music and other perks.
“I just try to save anytime I can, in all transparency,” he said.
Saving is becoming a family affair. His younger sister, who is in middle school, landed a position with the city’s Summer Youth Employment Program, marking her first job. His younger brother, in high school, is looking for a summer job. It’s unlikely that much of their earnings will go toward the household expenses, though. Mr. Baldeon said he hopes his siblings will use their first paychecks to learn about financial responsibility and pay for things themselves over the summer — something he did when he got one of his first jobs through the program.
“It was a very good feeling to have some money of my own,” he said. “It was definitely quality of life for me, too, so that’s what I want to stress to them as well.”
Eyes on the Future
Living at home, working more hours and delaying a return to college has helped Mr. Baldeon put money aside for what could be his biggest future expense: a car.
Four more wheels, he said, will make his commute to work much easier and give his mother and siblings more time to run errands during the week. His dream model? A Subaru WRX Impreza.
“It could be used, older, I don’t care,” he said. “As long as it’s that one.”
Mr. Baldeon was born and raised in New York and loves it as his home. But after he moves out of his mother’s house, he said he probably won’t stay in the city much longer. He is considering going upstate to Rochester, where he has family, or a more rural place where his dollar can stretch a little further to allow him to build a home for himself.
“I want something of my own for sure,” he said. “So I want to get out of the city.”
We are talking to New Yorkers about how they spend, splurge and save.
Education
Video: Can California Convince Teens to Work in Construction?
“So —” “I’m going to the University of Oregon.” “Colorado School of Mines.” “Syracuse University.” “C.S.U.—L.A.” “I wanted to be like a medical student. I realize now that I want to become an electrician.” There used to be straightforward messaging about how to achieve success in America. “Go to school, go to college, get a degree, make money.” But times have changed. Student debt has skyrocketed. Jobs are hard to find, and now A.I. is threatening to upend the economy. “Like you can barely find jobs nowadays.” “I’ve heard a lot about coders — how A.I. just completely eliminated them.” “It feels as though the economy is like just continuously moving against us.” “I don’t think there’s a perfect American dream anymore. I think, honestly.” In California, the world’s A.I. capital, the state is keenly aware that students are looking for new options. “No one cares how much you know because ChatGPT knows more.” It’s part of a nationwide conversation happening in government, at schools and increasingly on the internet. “Why the hell would you go to college? Like, seriously.” “There’s so many people with multiple degrees that are broke.” “I became a millionaire from construction like a year and a half ago.” “I would see all these people saying, ‘I dropped out of high school, I dropped out of college, and I’m a millionaire.’ And I was like, ‘I need to learn how to do that.’” California is pouring money into hands-on trade programs in public schools. There’s a construction labor shortage in the state, and in 2021, the state doubled a grant for classes like this to help solve it. “Yeah — hit it like it owes you money. So start it off steep so you can swing your hammer back. State of California educational system has seen that if students are not going to go to a four-year college. They should have an option. I would say over 95 percent of my students, maybe even higher, have never used any tools before in their life. And I would say almost 100 percent had never used a power tool. Ta da — see, you know how to do it. “No, I had no idea this class existed. I didn’t even really consider construction seriously until I took this class.” “I actually did consider, oh, maybe I should go to trade school. Or maybe I should focus less on aero-engineering as a degree.” “A.I. is not going to build a home. A.I. isn’t going to weld anything either.” “We had somebody come and talk to our class about electricians and can still make $200,000 a year.” More students across the country are choosing to go to trade school — but working with your hands still comes with a stigma, and the college path still holds a lot of power. “Yeah — yeah. Almost 100 percent.” “I think a lot of people, especially older generations, still believe that trades are like dirty.” “I have students who are very good carpenters, and their parents still want them to go to college, and I totally respect that.” “I come from an immigrant family, and so pressure has been even more heavy. They’re supportive. They’re just a little disappointed that I’m not going to college.” “They don’t want their sons or daughters to go into the trades. They think it is less than. And I try to have this conversation with them and say the trades are a good place to go to make a living. There you go.” But for this generation of Bay Area kids, who grew up in the pandemic and are seeing major changes in the tech industry, the overall feeling is that no path is safe. “As you can see, we just built these little kitchen tiles and to me they look great. If you make a wrong decision, that could lead you into a debt spiral and you’re just kind of stuck.” “I don’t have any friends that are really wanting to go into the tech industry at all because of A.I.” “You’re paying $400,000 and then what are you going to get from it?” “Like, am I going to be able to make all this back when I get a job?” “And we have a storage cabinet in here. This generation, especially, you really have to think about what you’re going to do. Because if your plan is not future-proof, the world is going to eat you. It’s so small, but it’s a pretty cozy little home.”
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