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Biologists forecast a reduced Alaska commercial salmon harvest

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Biologists forecast a reduced Alaska commercial salmon harvest


Two spawning pink salmon head upstream in shallow water in Cove Creek in Whittier on Aug. 5, 2024. (Photo by Yereth Rosen / Alaska Beacon)

Alaska’s statewide commercial salmon harvest this year is expected to total 125.5 million fish, less than two-thirds of the total landed by commercial harvesters in 2025, according to the annual forecast released last week by state biologists.

The anticipated 2026 total, detailed in the Alaska Department of Fish and Game’s 2026 forecast and 2025 review, is lower than annual statewide harvests in all but four years since 2000, according to department records.

The lowered expectations for the statewide salmon harvest are driven mostly by anticipated declines in runs of pink salmon, also known as humpback salmon, according to the forecast.

Pink salmon are the most plentiful, smallest and cheapest of Alaska’s five salmon species. They have two-year life cycles, the shortest of all of Alaska’s salmon species. Although there are regional variations, the general pattern for the recent past is alternating big-run and smaller-run years, with 2025 as one of the big-run years.

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The year-to-year difference has been significant, said Forrest Bowers, who heads the department’s commercial fishing division.

“We have been seeing a pronounced even-odd year difference in pink salmon returns, with much larger returns in odd-numbered years,” Bowers said by email.

In all, about 197.4 million salmon were harvested commercially last year, 120 million of which were pink salmon, the forecast said. This year, about 60 million pink salmon are expected to be harvested commercially, according to the forecast.

For Alaska’s other four salmon species, the forecast calls for lower total catches as well, with a combined reduction of 11% below the 2025 non-pink salmon total harvest, Bowers said.

That is not considered a precise prediction. There are estimate ranges for different species and locations, which put the anticipated 2026 harvest in the general ballpark of last year’s harvest, except for pink salmon.

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“When we consider forecast uncertainty and the distribution of harvests across the state, the forecast for non-pink salmon is fairly similar to the 2025 actual harvest,” Bowers said.

Alaska commercial salmon harvest totals from 1975 to 2024 are shown on a graph. In recent years, totals have fluctuated widely from year to year, reflecting the pattern in pink salmon returns. The 2025 total, not shown on the graph, was over 197 million fish, putting it among the top years in the past five decades for salmon numbers. (Graph provided by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game)

Sockeye salmon, also known as red salmon, is the second-most plentiful of Alaska’s five species, and the statewide harvest is dominated by Southwest Alaska’s Bristol Bay, site of the world’s largest sockeye salmon runs.

That status will continue this year, according to the forest. Bristol Bay’s estimated 2026 harvest for this year is 33.5 million fish, a little over the average over the last 20 years — but smaller than in some recent years, when harvests in that region hit or approached records. Last year’s Bristol Bay sockeye harvest was about 41.2 million fish, a little more than three-quarters of the statewide sockeye harvest.

This year, the statewide sockeye salmon harvest is forecast to total 49.7 million fish, of which about two-thirds are expected to come from Bristol Bay.

The forecast chum salmon commercial harvest this year is 17.2 million fish, compared to 21.7 million last year. This year’s forecast harvest of coho salmon, also known as silver salmon, is 2.4 million fish, compared to 2.7 million harvested last year. This year’s forecast harvest of chinook salmon, also known as king salmon, is 197,000 fish, compared to last year’s total harvest of 201,000 fish.

The department’s forecast details regional differences along with species differences.

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In the Yukon and Kuskokwim river systems, salmon runs are expected to continue to be weak, as they have been for the past several years, according to the forecast. There is no commercial fishing anticipated on either of those river systems. The only commercial fishing in the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim region is expected to be in Norton Sound and in the Kotzebue area, as was the case last year and in other recent years.

The newly released forecast is for commercial harvesting alone. It does not include subsistence or sport harvests. Reports detailing last year’s subsistence harvests are expected to be released in the future, the forecast said.

Originally published by the Alaska Beacon, an independent, nonpartisan news organization that covers Alaska state government.

Pink salmon are seen in an undated photo. Male pink salmon develop humps on their backs, and the fish are also known as humpback salmon or “humpies.” (Photo provided by National Oceanic and Atrmospheric Administration Fisheries)





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Miss Manners: When a host cares more about their dogs than their guests

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Miss Manners: When a host cares more about their dogs than their guests


DEAR MISS MANNERS: My husband is the president of a local college alumni chapter, and I am the secretary. The chapter recently held an alumni meeting at the residence of the headmaster of a local private high school. Though the setting was a private home, the event was a formal gathering attended by the university president and various dignitaries.

Upon our arrival, five dogs began jumping on us and the other guests. We did not know that the headmaster and his wife had dogs. As I am severely allergic, I quietly asked the hostess if the dogs could be kept upstairs during the meeting.

She took great offense, loudly declaring that the dogs were her “children” and refusing to move them. I spent the evening wheezing and sneezing through my presentation to the university president.

Was I wrong to make this request? Should I have suffered in silence to avoid offending the hosts?

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GENTLE READER: As unpleasant as this situation was for you, Miss Manners can’t help being relieved that it wasn’t even more dangerous.

You and your husband are not employees of the college, but its beneficiaries. Therefore any estrangement would have been a loss to the school, and not to your own status.

And evidently, the headmaster and his wife do not have human children, if they believe youngsters of any kind should be jumping on their guests — especially ones suffering physical distress. (One wonders at the standard of behavior in the headmaster’s school, if this is what prevails at home.)

Of course you should not have stayed and suffered. You could have apologized to the guests that you had to leave because of your allergy, or you could have stuck the university president with that task. He would have had a strong interest in not alienating the leaders of the alumni group.

• • •

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DEAR MISS MANNERS: We’ve hosted an annual Kentucky Derby party in our home for years. We invite most of the same people every year, with a few new folks now and then.

We send out the invitations and let them know that we are providing all the food, and also tell them what drinks we will be serving. We ask that they RSVP so we will know how many to prepare for.

We have had as few as 25 people show up, and as many as 60 — the majority of whom had not responded to our invitation. I feel compelled to let the non-responders know how rude it is to ignore an invitation and how hard it makes it for us to prepare, but I fear that would be rude as well.

How do I handle non-responders? My first inclination is to ask them if they understand what “RSVP” means, or just to drop them from the list next year. Help.

GENTLE READER: The non-rude way to let them know how rude they are is to ask whether they plan to attend, and then to drop them from next year’s list.

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But Miss Manners wonders why your invitations don’t plainly state “please respond” instead of using a silly French form that some people really might not understand.





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A fight against the invisible: How the Alaska State Virology Laboratory is hunting down measles

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A fight against the invisible: How the Alaska State Virology Laboratory is hunting down measles


Each morning a vehicle containing hundreds of samples approaches an unassuming building located in UAF’s upper campus. As the packages are carefully handled and test tubes are collected, a meticulously coordinated system of scientists starts its daily routine: extracting viral genetic material, testing its contents, and reporting the results. Each step carefully studied, each movement repeated, over and over again.

Behind these numbered cuvettes, each containing a small amount of fluid, there is a human waiting for answers. What caused their disease, how could they cure it, and what are the dangers others might encounter?



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Bishop Rock’s oversized effect on Yukon River breakup

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Bishop Rock’s oversized effect on Yukon River breakup


Forest Wagner rides his fat bike near Bishop Rock, right, a pinch point on the flow of the Yukon River, on April 5, 2026. (Photo by Ned Rozell)

A few weeks ago, as my friend Forest and I rode our bikes on the vast white sheet of the frozen Yukon River downstream of Galena, the river forced us into a 90-degree hard left. There, the channel suddenly necked down from being almost a mile wide to just a quarter mile.

A 300-foot outcrop known as Bishop Rock sits at this pinch point on the middle Yukon. Its name — bestowed by someone in remembrance of an Oregon missionary who was murdered there in 1885 — comes up at this time every year when people start talking about river breakup and the potential for ice-jam flooding.

Kyle Van Peursem of the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center mentioned Bishop Rock during a recent presentation on the potential for spring floods in communities along the state’s rivers.

NASA’s Terra satellite captured this image of the flooded Yukon River on May 28, 2013. An ice jam at Bishop Rock backed water into the village of Galena, swamping much of the town with 7 feet of water for several days. (NASA image courtesy Lance Modis / Rapid Response)

Though the Yukon, Kuskokwim, Koyukuk and other rivers in central and northern Alaska are all very solid and white as of this writing, that will soon change. River breakup happens when the power of the sun melts feet of snow from the landscape and rots the ice of the river that was hard as iron for so dang long.

Predicting when breakup will occur at any of the dozens of villages along river systems is an inexact science. The most important variable is air temperature. Warmer Aprils are good, Van Peursem said, because they allow the snow and ice to melt at a more gradual rate that won’t overwhelm river channels.

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Bishop Rock juts into the Yukon River in this photo taken by a National Weather Service observer on May 12, 2024. (Photo courtesy National Weather Service)

The biggest driver of the dynamic breakups that flood villages is a cold April that “compresses the time to get rid of snowmelt,” he said.

Alaska villages on rivers most often flood in springtime due to ice jams. Jams happen when meltwater shoves chunks of recently broken ice sheets together.

“I think of these as like a dam in the river,” Van Peursem said. “The breakup front (a conveyor belt of ice chunks) stops, water has no place to go and piles up behind it.”

Eagle resident Steve Hamilton stands next to a block of Yukon River ice that the river lifted onto a road there on May 12, 2023. (Photo by Ned Rozell.)

Constrictions in rivers like Bishop Rock are common places for ice jams. In 2013, a pileup at Bishop Rock swelled the river upstream like a python and flooded Galena. The same happened in 1945, when U.S. Air Force bomber pilots dropped more than 75 bombs on the ice jam in front of Bishop Rock. They failed to dislodge the mass of ice.

Bishop Rock will soon loom large in windows of a single-engine aircraft in which Van Peursem will fly. He will monitor that portion of the Yukon River on flights from Galena as part of the Riverwatch program.

Van Peursem said the part of the Yukon he is monitoring is trending toward a dynamic breakup due to a cold April — Galena’s low temperature on April 22, 2026, was in the single digits Fahrenheit — but “hopefully we can slowly warm up as we go into May.”

A note to my readers: This, friends, is the second-to-last Alaska Science Forum I will write. After 31 years in the saddle, I am retiring from my science-writer job here at the Geophysical Institute on May 1, 2026. Though I have planned this for a while, the date sure has snuck up. I will sum up the whole adventure in my final column next week.

And — fear not — my boss and other leaders at the Geophysical Institute are committed to continuing the Alaska Science Forum after I leave.

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