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Gerrymandering Isn’t Giving Republicans the Advantage You Might Expect

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Gerrymandering Isn’t Giving Republicans the Advantage You Might Expect

There isn’t a scarcity of causes Republicans are anticipated to retake the Home this 12 months, together with President Biden’s low approval rankings and the lengthy historical past of struggles for the president’s social gathering in midterm elections.

However there’s one other concern that looms over the race for the Home, one which doesn’t have something to do with the candidates or the voters in any respect: the equity of the newly redrawn congressional maps.

You may assume that the Home map is closely gerrymandered towards Republicans, particularly after Republicans enacted aggressive gerrymanders in vital states like Texas and Florida. Lots of you may even presume that this gerrymandering implies that the Home isn’t merely prone to go to the Republicans, however that it’s additionally out of attain for Democrats underneath any practical circumstances.

In actuality, Republicans do have a structural edge within the Home, nevertheless it isn’t something close to insurmountable for the Democrats. By some measures, that is the fairest Home map of the final 40 years.

Right here’s a method to consider it: In the event you consider Democrats have a very good likelihood to win the Senate, they should a minimum of have an opportunity to win the Home — even when Republicans are favored there.

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Let’s begin with a easy truth: On the brand new Home map, 226 districts would have voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, in contrast with 209 for Donald J. Trump.

Now, Mr. Biden gained the nationwide vote by 4.5 proportion factors, so even a map that’s biased towards Republicans may nonetheless have extra Biden districts than Trump districts. However the easy undeniable fact that Mr. Biden gained probably the most districts is a transparent sufficient indication that the Republican benefit within the Home isn’t completely insurmountable.

To account for Mr. Biden’s victory in 2020, a considerably higher — although extra complicated — measure is required: a comparability between how districts voted and the way the nation as an entire voted. If Mr. Biden gained a district by greater than he did nationally, it may be stated to be a district the place Democrats have the benefit if the nationwide vote is tied. On a wonderfully honest map, half the districts would lean towards Democrats with respect to the nation, whereas half would vote for Mr. Trump or vote for Mr. Biden by lower than 4.5 factors. And on this completely honest map, the district proper within the center — the median district — would have voted for Mr. Biden by 4.5 factors, similar to the nation.

So what does this Home appear to be by these measures? The median district backed Mr. Biden by 2.1 factors, just a little bit extra to the fitting of the nation as an entire. And total, there are 215 districts the place Mr. Biden gained by a minimum of 4.5 proportion factors, in contrast with 220 districts the place Mr. Trump gained or the place Mr. Biden gained by lower than 4.5 factors.

Each of those measures present a map tilted towards Republicans. To retain management of the Home in our hypothetical, Democrats would want to win a minimum of three districts the place Mr. Biden did worse than he did nationwide, together with a district the place he gained by 2.1 factors or much less. Republicans may theoretically prevail by defending districts the place Mr. Trump gained or misplaced by lower than he did nationwide.

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It is a actual Republican edge, however it isn’t a frightening one for Democrats. Listed here are 3 ways to place it in perspective.

First, the Republican edge is flimsy. In a chamber with dozens of aggressive races, a three-seat benefit simply isn’t that a lot. If Republicans nominated a couple of too many unelectable stop-the-steal candidates or if a couple of too many Democratic incumbents proved too resilient, the Republican structural edge would evaporate.

Second, the sting is traditionally small. In actual fact, there are extra Democratic-tilting districts — 215 — than at any time within the final 40 years.

As lately as 2012, there have been simply 195 districts the place Barack Obama had fared higher than common nationwide within the prior election. That was such a big benefit that you simply actually may (and I did!) dismiss the potential of a Democratic win anytime quickly, even when the social gathering may narrowly win the Home well-liked vote. Not anymore.

Third, the Republican structural benefit is pretty akin to that of the Senate and the Electoral School — two our bodies the place, sure, the Republicans command structural benefits, however the place nobody actually questions whether or not the Democrats can win.

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Contemplate this: Whereas Democrats may win the Home by carrying each district that Mr. Biden gained by a minimum of 2.1 factors, the Democrats would lose the presidency and the Senate in the event that they solely gained states the place Mr. Biden gained by 2.1 or extra. Within the Senate races, Georgia and Arizona seats would flip to the Republicans, whereas Democrats would fail to flip seats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio.

Or put in a different way, if Democrats can win the Home races that resemble Senate contests in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada, they’ll most likely win the Home.

There may be one catch on this comparability, and right here’s the place gerrymandering comes into play: Democrats might want to win the next proportion of aggressive districts than they do within the Senate.

For illustration, let’s outline a “aggressive” state or district utilizing what we’ll name the North Carolina-Virginia vary — which means figuring out each district that voted between Mr. Trump’s 1.3-point victory in North Carolina and Mr. Biden’s 10.1-point win in Virginia. It is a handy measure as a result of each states diverged roughly 5.7 factors from the nationwide vote in 2020, North Carolina to the fitting and Virginia to the left.

To win the Senate this 12 months in our state of affairs, Democrats would want to win 4 of the seven races within the Virginia-to-North Carolina vary. To win the Home, Democrats would want to win about 72 p.c of the districts in that Virginia-to-North Carolina zone, or 5 in seven races.

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Profitable 5 of seven aggressive seats is a tricky burden for Democrats, particularly in a midterm 12 months. However is it inconceivable? It actually isn’t inconceivable for Democrats to win 5 of the seven key Senate races — in actual fact, Democrats may effectively be the favorites in 5 of the seven Senate races proper now. A equally spectacular run within the Home may be extra of a problem, however Democrats would deliver lots of the similar benefits to the desk — like stop-the-steal Republican nominees and a disproportionate variety of Democratic incumbents.

None of this implies Democrats are going to win the Home. But when they don’t, it might not be so easy accountable gerrymandering.

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Alabama lawmakers advance bill that could lead to prosecution of librarians

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Alabama lawmakers advance bill that could lead to prosecution of librarians

Alabama lawmakers on Thursday advanced legislation that could see librarians prosecuted under the state’s obscenity law for providing “harmful” materials to minors, the latest in a wave of bills in Republican-led states targeting library content and decisions.

The Alabama House of Representatives voted 72-28 for the bill that now moves to the Alabama Senate. The legislation comes amid a soaring number of book challenges — often centered on LGBTQ content — and efforts in a number of states to ban drag queen story readings.

ALABAMA LAWMAKERS ADVANCE BILLS ENSURING BIDEN APPEARS ON NOVEMBER BALLOT

“This is an effort to protect children. It is not a Democrat bill. It’s not a Republican bill. It’s a people bill to try to protect children,” Republican Rep. Arnold Mooney, the bill’s sponsor, said during debate.

Alabama lawmakers have advanced legislation that could see librarians prosecuted for providing “harmful” materials or programs to minors.

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The Alabama bill removes the existing exemption for public libraries in the state’s obscenity law. It also expands the definition of prohibited sexual conduct to include any “sexual or gender oriented conduct” at K-12 public schools or public libraries that “exposes minors to persons who are dressed in sexually revealing, exaggerated, or provocative clothing or costumes, or are stripping, or engaged in lewd or lascivious dancing, presentations, or activities.”

Under the process laid out in the bill, a librarian in a public library or public K-12 school could face a misdemeanor charge if the librarian fails to remove material or cease conduct that violates the state’s obscenity law within seven days of receiving a written complaint from the public.

Opponents argued that proposal would threaten librarians with criminal prosecution at the whims of community members who disagreed with their decisions on books and programs.

“This process will be manipulated and used to arrest librarians that you don’t like, and not because they did anything criminal. It’s because you disagree with them,” Rep. Chris England, a Democrat from Tuscaloosa, said during debate.

Craig Scott, president of the Alabama Library Association, said libraries already have longstanding procedures for reviewing the suitability of content and for the public to submit challenges if they disagree with a decision.

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“Why are they coming into libraries or thinking that they can come in and run the place better than us as professionals?” Scott said in a phone interview. He predicted the state will lose “lawsuit after lawsuit” if the bill becomes law.

A judge in July temporarily blocked Arkansas from enforcing a similar law that would have allowed criminal charges against librarians and booksellers for providing “harmful” materials to minors.

Scott, who began his career in 1977, said he has never seen anything like the current climate. He said the Gadsden Public Library where he works has seen one person — who eventually obtained a role in library governance — challenge 30 books. Most of the book challenges are related to books with content about gender identity. But they also have included a book about a boy who wants to become a ballet dancer, he said.

“We are for the entire community. We have to be. We’ve got some books in here that are far right. We’ve got some books on the far left. But the library is for the entire community. We’ve got to stay in the middle as best we can, and they want to push us way off to the far right,” Scott said.

Republican Rep. David Faulkner, who worked on a substitute version of the bill that was approved by the House, disputed that the bill could have wide-ranging impact. He said courts have long interpreted what is obscene material.

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The law takes away immunity that K-12 and public libraries had under the obscenity law, but it puts limits on when prosecutions could occur, Faulkner said.

“It’s only going to be a misdemeanor, and it’s only if, after knowing about the material, they didn’t do anything about it,” he said.

Rep. Neil Rafferty, a Democrat from Birmingham, said he was concerned that the bill’s language would allow someone to “target and harass people who might be dressed up in a Halloween costume” or wearing summer clothing that someone considered too revealing.

“I feel like this is a violation of the First Amendment, and it’s easily going to be abused,” he said.

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California battery storage increasing rapidly, but not enough to end blackouts, Gov. Newsom says

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California battery storage increasing rapidly, but not enough to end blackouts, Gov. Newsom says

Gov. Gavin Newsom said Thursday that California continued to rapidly add the battery storage that is crucial to the transition to cleaner energy, but admitted it was still not enough to avoid blackouts during heat waves.

Standing in the middle of a solar farm in Yolo County, Newsom announced the state now had battery storage systems with the capacity of more than 10,000 megawatts — about 20% of the 52,000 megawatts the state says is needed to meet its climate goals.

“This is critical to how we achieve 100% clean energy by 2045,” Newsom said. “Batteries allow us to use clean energy captured by solar and other renewable sources at all times of the day, especially when solar generation drops after the sun goes down.”

The ultimate goal, he said, is to slow climate change.

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“As the hots get hotter, the drys get drier, the wets get wetter, simultaneous droughts, and rain bombs, we have to address these issues with a ferocity that is required of us and we’re doing just that in California,” he said.

Asked by reporters if California now had enough battery storage so that residents no longer had to worry about blackouts during times of high power use, Newsom laughed.

“We have a lot of work to do still in moving this transition, with the kind of stability that’s required,” the governor said. “So no, this is not today announcing that blackouts are part of our past.”

Battery storage installations work by receiving excess solar and wind power and releasing it later, especially from 4 to 9 p.m. when the state’s grid is most under stress.

Last year, Newsom appointees voted to extend the operation of the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant another five years to bolster the reliability of Calfornia’s grid and avoid rolling blackouts. The aging nuclear facility and its twin reactors had been scheduled to shut down.

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In August 2020, a major heat event fueled by the climate crisis forced some of the state’s first rotating power outages in decades, as the ongoing transition to green energy lagged behind demand. Californians narrowly avoided rolling blackouts in 2022 as a record-breaking heat wave broiled almost every corner of the state for days.

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911 call transcript details Democratic Minnesota state senator’s alleged burglary at stepmother's home

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911 call transcript details Democratic Minnesota state senator’s alleged burglary at stepmother's home

When the stepmother of Democratic Minnesota state Sen. Nicole Mitchell reported a home break-in around 4:45 a.m. Monday, she said she was armed with “a little steak knife” after finding an intruder next to her bed, according to a 911 call transcript obtained by Fox News Digital Thursday.

Mitchell’s stepmother told a dispatcher the intruder ran downstairs to the basement of her home in the 700 block of Granger Road in Detroit Lakes, and she didn’t know if the person was “breaking out the back window.”

Mitchell was found and arrested at the home after police arrived and allegedly found her wearing all black with a flashlight covered with a black sock nearby. She was charged with first-degree burglary.

When the dispatcher asked if the caller got a good look at the intruder, she responded: “No, it was completely dark. I tripped over ’em. Ah, he was on the floor next to my bed. He ran downstairs into my basement.”

DEMOCRATIC MINNESOTA STATE SENATOR CLAIMS SHE WAS CHECKING IN ON ILL LOVED ONE DURING ALLEGED BURGLARY

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Democratic state Sen. Nicole Mitchell, 47, was charged with first-degree burglary Tuesday. (Becker County Jail)

The caller also told the dispatcher she had grabbed “a little steak knife.” Throughout the call, she only referred to the intruder as “he” and never suggested she knew who had entered her home. 

Mitchell denied the burglary allegation in a Facebook post Tuesday, claiming she went to check on “a loved one” with Alzheimer’s after learning of medical information which caused her “grave concern.”

READ THE 911 CALL TRANSCRIPT: MOBILE USERS, CLICK HERE

According to the 911 call transcript, the dispatcher asked the caller if she could hear anyone breaking out the window in the basement.

“I’m not hearing anything right now,” she responded. “Maybe the window is already open down there. There’s a basement — a drop window that can crank open. I don’t know.”

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According to a criminal complaint, responding officers found that a black backpack belonging to Mitchell was propping open a basement window. Inside the backpack, officers found a laptop belonging to the stepmother, who told officers that she never gave it to Mitchell.

Nicole Mitchell's state Senate photo

Mitchell was elected to represent Minnesota’s Senate District 47 in 2022. (Minnesota State Senate)

Mitchell acknowledged she entered through a window and told investigators she was trying to get her late father’s ashes, photos, a flannel shirt and other items of sentimental value, the criminal complaint said. Mitchell claimed her stepmother had stopped speaking to her after her father’s death and refused to give her the items.

DEMOCRATIC MINNESOTA STATE SENATOR CHARGED WITH FIRST-DEGREE BURGLARY AFTER BREAKING INTO STEPMOTHER’S HOUSE

“I know I did something bad,” Mitchell is quoted as saying in the complaint.

Democratic State Sen. Nicole Mitchell

Mitchell is accused of breaking into her stepmother’s home and stealing a laptop. (AP Photo/Steve Karnowski)

In Mitchell’s Facebook post, the state senator said she entered the home but did not explain why she apparently entered through a window in the dark early morning hours.

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“Unfortunately, I startled this close relative, exacerbating paranoia, and I was accused of stealing, which I absolutely deny,” Mitchell wrote.

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Mitchell, of Woodbury, has represented District 47 since she was elected to the state Senate in 2022. She was previously a meteorologist for KSTP-TV and Minnesota Public Radio and serves as a lieutenant colonel in the Air National Guard.

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