Crypto

The Volatility of Cryptocurrency: Barrier or Enabler of Nuclear Escalation? — Global Security Review

Published

1 month ago

December 12, 2024

The Volatility of Cryptocurrency: Barrier or Enabler of Nuclear Escalation? — Global Security Review

The volatility of cryptocurrency markets has been a major topic of discussion since the inception of digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Its impact extends beyond financial speculation and the promise of decentralized finance. Cryptocurrency’s creation is creating distinct ripples through the global economy, even reaching security and geopolitical affairs. Among the more intriguing dimensions of this impact is the interplay between cryptocurrency volatility and nuclear deterrence.

Too few Americans contemplate the role of digital currency volatility in acting as a barrier or an enabler to nuclear deterrence. The reality is that there are opportunities and risks that volatile cryptocurrency plays in the strategic calculus of nuclear states.

Cryptocurrency and Geopolitical Shifts

Cryptocurrencies are decentralized and borderless, challenging traditional financial systems and reshaping how states interact economically. Their volatility stems from market immaturity, speculative trading, regulatory uncertainties, and evolution of these ever-changing technologies. Essentially created to prevent intermediaries, like banks and financial institutions, cryptocurrencies lay the foundation for trustless transactions for illicit activities.

This volatile mix of person-to-person transactions and zero oversight introduces both unpredictability and opportunity, raising questions about their implications for nuclear deterrence, which now must deal with a domain that includes ungoverned access to financial streams that can be used by state and non-state actors to engage in elicit behavior that undermines deterrence stability.

Nuclear deterrence relies on a delicate balance of power, with states maintaining assured second-strike capabilities to dissuade adversaries from initiating conflict. This balance hinges on credibility and capability. Cryptocurrencies, with their volatile swings in value, could serve to undermine stability within a country or enable elicit actors to engage in a range of nonnuclear actions that undermine strategic stability.

The Risks of Cryptocurrency Volatility as a Barrier

Cryptocurrency volatility can act as a barrier to nuclear deterrence by creating financial instability and undermining a state’s ability to project economic power. Traditional nuclear powers depend on stable economies to maintain robust defense capabilities, fund deterrence strategies, and support diplomatic efforts. Sharp and unpredictable fluctuations in digital assets can undermine financial stability, weakening a state’s capacity to fund critical defense initiatives.

For the United States, crypto is not a major issue currently. But, for North Korea, who funds its nuclear program through elicit activities, crypto is important. Proliferators also use crypto to conduct activity. Instability in crypto makes illicit activity even more high stakes and unpredictable.

Instability creates advantages for state and non-state actors to exploit cryptocurrency markets for nefarious purposes, such as evading sanctions, financing proliferation, and bypassing traditional financial controls. The decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies complicates efforts to monitor, track, and regulate illicit activities, potentially undermining efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons or restrict financing for state and non-state actors pursuing destabilizing weapons programs.

Cryptocurrency instability also presents a challenge to strategic stability through cyber threats. If critical financial systems or exchanges are disrupted, or if adversaries manipulate markets to harm a nation’s economy, it could create economic shocks severe enough to destabilize deterrence relationships, increase miscalculation risks, or fuel insecurity-driven arms build-ups.

The Darknet and Conflict Escalation

Darknet cryptocurrency markets empower bad actors by offering anonymity and decentralized financial tools, enabling a wide range of conflict-escalating activities. These markets facilitate the purchase of illegal arms, military-grade technology, and hacking tools, often used to destabilize regions and target critical infrastructure (command-and-control systems) through cyberattacks.

Terror organizations leverage cryptocurrencies for anonymous funding, allowing them to finance operations, recruit globally, and expand their influence. Sanctioned entities exploit these markets to bypass international restrictions and acquire resources that fuel aggressive actions.

The ability to transact anonymously with cryptocurrencies also shields organized crime, including narcotics and human trafficking, whose revenues often fund conflict zones and insurgent groups. Covert exchanges on the darknet can increase espionage, destabilize international relations, and provoke hostilities to serve a radically motivated agenda.

In parallel, extremist groups utilize these platforms to spread propaganda, incite violence, and radicalize populations, further destabilizing fragile regions. The combination of anonymity, decentralized systems, and hidden economies presents a formidable challenge for global security efforts aimed at conflict prevention and stability.

Cryptocurrency as an Enabler of Nuclear Deterrence

On the other hand, cryptocurrency volatility also opens new avenues for strengthening nuclear deterrence through financial resilience and innovation. The decentralized nature of digital assets can enable states to diversify their financial resources and reduce dependency on traditional systems that might be vulnerable to adversarial influence or geopolitical tensions. In times of economic crisis or sanctions, cryptocurrencies can provide states with alternative means to maintain fiscal stability, thus supporting their deterrent capabilities. Countering bad activities with good can be as challenging as the reliance on traditional financial stability for positive security assurance.

Furthermore, blockchain technology, which underpins cryptocurrencies, offers potential for transparency, accountability, and verification mechanisms in arms control agreements. By leveraging blockchain, states can create tamper-proof records for tracking nuclear materials, enhancing verification regimes, and building trust between adversaries. The volatility of digital assets may fuel innovation and drive investment into these applications, ultimately strengthening nuclear stability and deterrence structures.

Balancing the Risks and Opportunities

While the volatility of cryptocurrencies poses undeniable risks, it is essential to approach them with a nuanced perspective to find the right balance between risk and reward. Policymakers must strike a balance between leveraging the opportunities that digital assets present and mitigating their risks to global security. Collaborative efforts to regulate and stabilize cryptocurrency markets can reduce the likelihood of financial instability while harnessing the potential of decentralized systems.

In addition, enhanced cybersecurity measures must accompany any state or multilateral effort to integrate cryptocurrency into the financial systems that underpin deterrence capabilities. Protecting digital infrastructure against malicious actors will ensure that the advantages of decentralized assets are not overshadowed by their exploitation for destabilizing purposes.

A New Strategic Frontier

The volatility of cryptocurrency markets is both a challenge and a frontier for instability of nuclear deterrence. While it poses risks through financial instability, illicit use, and cyber threats, it also offers opportunities for financial resilience, innovation, and transparency. In today’s evolving digital environment, nations must adapt to this dual-edged sword, developing strategies that incorporate the volatility of digital assets into a comprehensive approach to deterrence.

Ultimately, whether cryptocurrencies become a barrier or enabler of nuclear deterrence depends on how nations, regions, and regulators in the broader international community respond to this evolving challenge. By advocating cooperation, innovation, and regulation, cryptocurrencies can strengthen global security architectures and contribute to a stable nuclear order—turning volatility into a force for strategic stability and peace.

Greg Sharpe is the Marketing and Communications Director at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies. The views expressed in this article are his own.

Greg Sharpe

Mr. Greg Sharpe is the director of Communications and Marketing for the National Institute for Deterrence Studies and the Managing Design Editor for the Global Security Review.

He has 25+ years in marketing and communications focusing in digital marketing and analysis. Greg has over 35 years of military, federal civilian and defense contractor experience in the fields of database development, digital marketing & analytics, and organizational outreach and engagement.

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Crypto

Donald Trump Embraces Meme Coins—A Presidential First

Published

5 hours ago

January 12, 2025

Press Room

Donald Trump Embraces Meme Coins—A Presidential First

Donald Trump is making news once more, but this time it’s not for political reasons; it’s about cryptocurrency. As he prepares to return as the 47th President of the United States, Trump will become the first sitting president to own meme currencies, a decision that has stirred both enthusiasm and skepticism in the crypto community.

Trump: A Significant Crypto Portfolio

Recent sources claim that Trump’s crypto wallet consists largely of meme coins and is valued roughly $8 million. Among the assets are $1.5 million in a meme currency with Trump-themed design and $5.5 million in TROG tokens.

In addition, he has about 1.3 billion GUA coins, which amounts to nearly $400,000, and $167,000 in TRUMPIUS tokens. This is a first of its kind, where Trump becomes an oddity in the world of politics and cryptocurrency, considering his earlier reluctance towards digital assets.

DONALD J. TRUMP WILL BE THE FIRST SITTING US PRESIDENT TO HOLD MEMECOINS pic.twitter.com/ODlNXDaKIT
— Arkham (@arkham) January 10, 2025

From Skepticism To Support

Trump’s journey into the crypto world is notable. He had been a strong critic of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, calling them scams. But that all changed in 2024 when he started publicly endorsing Bitcoin and speaking out for the right to own it. That’s a broader trend among politicians, who are increasingly recognizing the potential of cryptocurrencies and their growing popularity among voters.

Trump’s financial success in the digital sphere was also aided by his venture into non-fungible tokens (NFTs) on Ethereum. Trump reportedly made a good living from these endeavors, and he currently owns roughly 496.77 ETH, which is worth about $1.6 million.

BTC is currently trading at $94,144. Chart: TradingView

Implications For Regulation

Many people are eager to see how Trump’s administration will regulate cryptocurrencies now that he is back in office. A possible change toward a more advantageous regulatory climate for digital assets is hinted at by the nomination of important individuals like David Sacks as “Crypto Czar” and Paul Atkins as SEC chair. This could result in more precise rules for investors and businesses involved in the cryptocurrency industry.

Trump

Donald Trump. Image: Ronda Churchill/Reuters

The policies by Trump are already changing market dynamics as everybody is anxiously awaiting them. During this time when Bitcoin hit a record high of $108k, while meme coins surged, analysts still feel that Trump could make the year 2025 a major turning point in cryptocurrencies.

Meme Coin Boom

The rise of Trump-owned meme coins is indicative of a broader cultural shift among younger investors who are fed up with established financial institutions. This combination of the political influence of Trump and the speculative nature of meme coins puts a scenario under which political events could significantly affect cryptocurrency markets. Thus, while the investors go about this, they are not ignorant of the volatility that is usually associated with meme coins.

Featured image from Fortanix, chart from TradingView

Crypto

Scammers steal $2 million in cryptocurrency from remote work seekers in New York, Florida

Published

13 hours ago

January 11, 2025

Press Room

Scammers steal million in cryptocurrency from remote work seekers in New York, Florida

Scammers stole millions of dollars in cryptocurrency from remote job seekers in an elaborate scheme. New York Attorney General Letitia James has filed a lawsuit to recover over $2 million that she said was stolen from New Yorkers and others nationwide.

Scammers used unsolicited text messages to lure victims with promises of flexible, well-paying remote work opportunities. They claimed the job involved reviewing products online to generate market data. However, victims were told to open cryptocurrency accounts and maintain balances matching the price of products they were reviewing.

While victims believed they would receive their investments plus commissions, the funds were instead transferred into the scammers’ crypto wallets. The fake product reviews took place on a fraudulent website created as part of the scheme.

The lawsuit details seven people who were scammed. One victim, a New Yorker, lost over $100,000 while another victim from Florida lost over $300,000. These cases show the significant financial and emotional impact on the victims.

James’ office, working with Queens District Attorney Melinda Katz and her cryptocurrency unit, traced the stolen funds to specific digital wallets. Over $2 million in cryptocurrency has been frozen, ensuring it can be returned to victims.

“Deceiving individuals seeking remote work is cruel and unacceptable,” said James. “We’re committed to holding scammers accountable and recovering stolen funds.”

Published By:

indiatodayglobal

Published On:

Jan 12, 2025

Crypto

Illegal Cryptocurrency Mixers Targeted: Operators Charged with Money Laundering – Regtechtimes

Published

23 hours ago

January 11, 2025

Press Room

Illegal Cryptocurrency Mixers Targeted: Operators Charged with Money Laundering – Regtechtimes

A federal grand jury in Georgia recently indicted three Russian nationals for their involvement in running illegal cryptocurrency mixer services that helped criminals launder money. The indictment, announced on January 7, 2025, involves Roman Vitalyevich Ostapenko, Alexander Evgenievich Oleynik, and Anton Vyachslavovich Tarasov. These individuals are accused of operating two online services called Blender.io and Sinbad.io, which helped criminals hide the source of their illegal funds.

A cryptocurrency mixer is a tool used to mix cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, making it harder for authorities to trace the origin of digital money. These services are attractive to criminals involved in activities such as ransomware attacks and fraud, as they allow them to send funds anonymously.

Ostapenko and Oleynik were arrested in December 2024, while Tarasov is still on the run. The three men face serious charges related to money laundering and operating unlicensed financial businesses. If convicted, they could face up to 20 years in prison for laundering money and up to five years for running an unlicensed business. The indictment follows the earlier shutdown of the Sinbad.io service after it was seized by law enforcement in 2023.

The Role of Blender.io and Sinbad.io

Blender.io and Sinbad.io were both cryptocurrency mixers, meaning they offered a way to send digital money anonymously. For a fee, these services allowed criminals to send their funds without revealing where the money came from. This feature made these mixers attractive to those who wanted to hide stolen funds or profits from illegal activities, such as ransomware attacks, fraud, and even theft of virtual currencies.

Extradited for Fraud: Do Kwon Faces Justice After $40B Crypto Crash

Blender.io operated from 2018 to 2022 and was known for its promise of anonymity. It advertised a “No Logs Policy,” meaning it claimed to have no records of transactions. The site also reassured users that no personal details were needed to use the service. This allowed criminals to send and receive Bitcoin without leaving a trace of their identity.

After Blender.io was shut down in 2022, the defendants launched Sinbad.io, which offered similar services. This service continued until law enforcement authorities took it down in November 2023, marking a significant victory in the fight against cybercrime. The shutdowns of both services were the result of coordinated efforts by authorities from several countries, including the U.S., the Netherlands, Finland, and Australia.

Both Blender.io and Sinbad.io were not only used by ordinary criminals but were also linked to state-sponsored hacking groups. For instance, Blender.io was used by North Korean hackers to launder funds stolen through cyberattacks. Similarly, Sinbad.io had connections to cybercriminals who targeted businesses and individuals. These cryptocurrency mixers served as a vital tool in helping these criminals profit from their illegal activities, making it harder for authorities to trace the stolen money back to its original source.

Crypto-currency Scam Wipes Out $425,000 from Ohio Man’s Retirement Fund

International Cooperation in Combating Cybercrime

The investigation into Blender.io and Sinbad.io showcases the power of international cooperation in tackling cybercrime. The indictment was made possible by the joint efforts of law enforcement agencies from different countries, including the U.S. Department of Justice, the FBI, the Netherlands’ Financial Intelligence Service, and Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation. Their collaboration helped track down the operators of these illegal services and ultimately led to their takedown.

In addition to the U.S. authorities, international agencies like the Australian Federal Police and Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation played key roles in the investigation. Their contributions were essential in identifying the people responsible for running these cryptocurrency mixers and disrupting their illegal activities.

The importance of international cooperation cannot be overstated. Cybercrime often crosses national borders, and without the efforts of multiple countries working together, it would be much harder to stop these crimes. The arrests of Ostapenko and Oleynik, along with the ongoing search for Tarasov, send a strong message to cybercriminals around the world: law enforcement agencies are committed to identifying and holding accountable those who operate illicit financial networks.

This case highlights how dangerous these cryptocurrency mixers can be in enabling serious criminal activities. By breaking down these networks, authorities are making it harder for criminals to profit from their wrongdoing, while also protecting public safety and national security.

To read the original order please visit DOJ website