Crypto

The Volatility of Cryptocurrency: Barrier or Enabler of Nuclear Escalation? — Global Security Review

Published

1 year ago

December 12, 2024

The Volatility of Cryptocurrency: Barrier or Enabler of Nuclear Escalation? — Global Security Review

The volatility of cryptocurrency markets has been a major topic of discussion since the inception of digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Its impact extends beyond financial speculation and the promise of decentralized finance. Cryptocurrency’s creation is creating distinct ripples through the global economy, even reaching security and geopolitical affairs. Among the more intriguing dimensions of this impact is the interplay between cryptocurrency volatility and nuclear deterrence.

Too few Americans contemplate the role of digital currency volatility in acting as a barrier or an enabler to nuclear deterrence. The reality is that there are opportunities and risks that volatile cryptocurrency plays in the strategic calculus of nuclear states.

Cryptocurrency and Geopolitical Shifts

Cryptocurrencies are decentralized and borderless, challenging traditional financial systems and reshaping how states interact economically. Their volatility stems from market immaturity, speculative trading, regulatory uncertainties, and evolution of these ever-changing technologies. Essentially created to prevent intermediaries, like banks and financial institutions, cryptocurrencies lay the foundation for trustless transactions for illicit activities.

This volatile mix of person-to-person transactions and zero oversight introduces both unpredictability and opportunity, raising questions about their implications for nuclear deterrence, which now must deal with a domain that includes ungoverned access to financial streams that can be used by state and non-state actors to engage in elicit behavior that undermines deterrence stability.

Nuclear deterrence relies on a delicate balance of power, with states maintaining assured second-strike capabilities to dissuade adversaries from initiating conflict. This balance hinges on credibility and capability. Cryptocurrencies, with their volatile swings in value, could serve to undermine stability within a country or enable elicit actors to engage in a range of nonnuclear actions that undermine strategic stability.

The Risks of Cryptocurrency Volatility as a Barrier

Cryptocurrency volatility can act as a barrier to nuclear deterrence by creating financial instability and undermining a state’s ability to project economic power. Traditional nuclear powers depend on stable economies to maintain robust defense capabilities, fund deterrence strategies, and support diplomatic efforts. Sharp and unpredictable fluctuations in digital assets can undermine financial stability, weakening a state’s capacity to fund critical defense initiatives.

For the United States, crypto is not a major issue currently. But, for North Korea, who funds its nuclear program through elicit activities, crypto is important. Proliferators also use crypto to conduct activity. Instability in crypto makes illicit activity even more high stakes and unpredictable.

Instability creates advantages for state and non-state actors to exploit cryptocurrency markets for nefarious purposes, such as evading sanctions, financing proliferation, and bypassing traditional financial controls. The decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies complicates efforts to monitor, track, and regulate illicit activities, potentially undermining efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons or restrict financing for state and non-state actors pursuing destabilizing weapons programs.

Cryptocurrency instability also presents a challenge to strategic stability through cyber threats. If critical financial systems or exchanges are disrupted, or if adversaries manipulate markets to harm a nation’s economy, it could create economic shocks severe enough to destabilize deterrence relationships, increase miscalculation risks, or fuel insecurity-driven arms build-ups.

The Darknet and Conflict Escalation

Darknet cryptocurrency markets empower bad actors by offering anonymity and decentralized financial tools, enabling a wide range of conflict-escalating activities. These markets facilitate the purchase of illegal arms, military-grade technology, and hacking tools, often used to destabilize regions and target critical infrastructure (command-and-control systems) through cyberattacks.

Terror organizations leverage cryptocurrencies for anonymous funding, allowing them to finance operations, recruit globally, and expand their influence. Sanctioned entities exploit these markets to bypass international restrictions and acquire resources that fuel aggressive actions.

The ability to transact anonymously with cryptocurrencies also shields organized crime, including narcotics and human trafficking, whose revenues often fund conflict zones and insurgent groups. Covert exchanges on the darknet can increase espionage, destabilize international relations, and provoke hostilities to serve a radically motivated agenda.

In parallel, extremist groups utilize these platforms to spread propaganda, incite violence, and radicalize populations, further destabilizing fragile regions. The combination of anonymity, decentralized systems, and hidden economies presents a formidable challenge for global security efforts aimed at conflict prevention and stability.

Cryptocurrency as an Enabler of Nuclear Deterrence

On the other hand, cryptocurrency volatility also opens new avenues for strengthening nuclear deterrence through financial resilience and innovation. The decentralized nature of digital assets can enable states to diversify their financial resources and reduce dependency on traditional systems that might be vulnerable to adversarial influence or geopolitical tensions. In times of economic crisis or sanctions, cryptocurrencies can provide states with alternative means to maintain fiscal stability, thus supporting their deterrent capabilities. Countering bad activities with good can be as challenging as the reliance on traditional financial stability for positive security assurance.

Furthermore, blockchain technology, which underpins cryptocurrencies, offers potential for transparency, accountability, and verification mechanisms in arms control agreements. By leveraging blockchain, states can create tamper-proof records for tracking nuclear materials, enhancing verification regimes, and building trust between adversaries. The volatility of digital assets may fuel innovation and drive investment into these applications, ultimately strengthening nuclear stability and deterrence structures.

Balancing the Risks and Opportunities

While the volatility of cryptocurrencies poses undeniable risks, it is essential to approach them with a nuanced perspective to find the right balance between risk and reward. Policymakers must strike a balance between leveraging the opportunities that digital assets present and mitigating their risks to global security. Collaborative efforts to regulate and stabilize cryptocurrency markets can reduce the likelihood of financial instability while harnessing the potential of decentralized systems.

In addition, enhanced cybersecurity measures must accompany any state or multilateral effort to integrate cryptocurrency into the financial systems that underpin deterrence capabilities. Protecting digital infrastructure against malicious actors will ensure that the advantages of decentralized assets are not overshadowed by their exploitation for destabilizing purposes.

A New Strategic Frontier

The volatility of cryptocurrency markets is both a challenge and a frontier for instability of nuclear deterrence. While it poses risks through financial instability, illicit use, and cyber threats, it also offers opportunities for financial resilience, innovation, and transparency. In today’s evolving digital environment, nations must adapt to this dual-edged sword, developing strategies that incorporate the volatility of digital assets into a comprehensive approach to deterrence.

Ultimately, whether cryptocurrencies become a barrier or enabler of nuclear deterrence depends on how nations, regions, and regulators in the broader international community respond to this evolving challenge. By advocating cooperation, innovation, and regulation, cryptocurrencies can strengthen global security architectures and contribute to a stable nuclear order—turning volatility into a force for strategic stability and peace.

Greg Sharpe is the Marketing and Communications Director at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies. The views expressed in this article are his own.

Greg Sharpe

Mr. Greg Sharpe is the director of Communications and Marketing for the National Institute for Deterrence Studies and the Managing Design Editor for the Global Security Review.

He has 25+ years in marketing and communications focusing in digital marketing and analysis. Greg has over 35 years of military, federal civilian and defense contractor experience in the fields of database development, digital marketing & analytics, and organizational outreach and engagement.

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Crypto

Trust Wallet Adds AI Transaction Layer to Self-Custody Wallet Infrastructure

Published

12 hours ago

March 26, 2026

Press Room

Trust Wallet Adds AI Transaction Layer to Self-Custody Wallet Infrastructure

Trust Wallet Agent Kit: AI Can Now Act on Your Crypto — With Your Permission

The kit ships in two configurations. In the first, developers set up a dedicated wallet built specifically for AI agent activity, where users define permissions upfront, and the agent can run automated strategies like dollar-cost averaging, limit orders, and price alerts, without asking for approval on every transaction.

In the second configuration, an AI agent connects to a user’s existing Trust Wallet through Walletconnect, proposes transactions, and waits for the user to approve them before anything moves. The firm notes that the user’s custody stays intact throughout.

The release follows Trust Wallet’s Developer Portal, which opened last week with read-only access to crypto data across more than 100 blockchains, including live prices, token metadata, and onchain risk signals. The Agent Kit extends that foundation by adding the ability to act, not just observe.

At launch, supported networks include Ethereum-compatible chains, Solana, Bitcoin, BNB Chain, Cosmos, TON, Aptos, Tron, NEAR, and Sui. Trust Wallet says that coverage makes it the broadest chain-compatible AI wallet infrastructure currently available.

The kit integrates with Model Context Protocol (MCP), the standard developers use to connect AI systems to external platforms, and is available through a command line interface. According to the company’s announcement, a developer can go from account creation to a working AI agent in under 15 minutes.

Out-of-the-box features include token swaps, limit orders, automated strategies, ENS resolution, ERC-20 approvals, message signing, portfolio tracking, wallet auto-lock, and a REST API for deeper integrations.

Felix Fan, CEO of Trust Wallet, remarked in a statement that AI agents need a trusted layer before they can safely act on a user’s finances. The Agent Kit, he said, gives developers the tools to build agents that execute on real wallets within rules the user sets.

Trust Wallet, which reports more than 220 million downloads, describes its broader goal as becoming the self-custody infrastructure for AI-powered finance, a foundational layer that lets AI participate in crypto workflows without users surrendering ownership of their assets.

The company plans to bring AI features directly to end users inside the Trust Wallet app over the coming months, with in-wallet insights, automated strategies, and personalized alerts. A separate Agent Marketplace is also on the roadmap, where developers can publish reusable agent strategies and trading bots for users to deploy directly from their wallets.

Trust Wallet’s development arrives as a growing number of crypto firms roll out services and features tailored to the emerging agentic economy. Since the debut of Openclaw, interest in AI agents has accelerated profoundly, with companies such as Circle, Binance, Coinbase, and a myriad of others unveiling tools and infrastructure focused squarely on this evolving segment.

FAQ 🔎

What is the Trust Wallet Agent Kit? It is a developer tool that allows AI agents to execute real crypto transactions on a user’s wallet across more than 25 supported blockchains.
How does Trust Wallet keep users in control of AI transactions? Users can require per-transaction approval through WalletConnect or configure preset permissions on a dedicated agent wallet before any automation runs.
What blockchains does the Trust Wallet Agent Kit support? At launch it supports Ethereum-compatible chains, Bitcoin, Solana, BNB Chain, Cosmos, TON, Aptos, Tron, NEAR, and Sui.
Where can developers access the Trust Wallet Agent Kit? The kit is available now via the Trust Wallet Developer Portal at portal.trustwallet.com.

Crypto

Cedar Falls delays public hearing on crypto mining operation, power plant

Published

1 day ago

March 26, 2026

Press Room

Cedar Falls delays public hearing on crypto mining operation, power plant

CEDAR FALLS, Iowa (KCRG) – Cedar Falls city officials postponed a public hearing on zoning and code changes needed for a proposed power plant and cryptocurrency mining operation.

The hearing was pushed back to April 22 amid concerns from residents about environmental impacts and utility costs.

Cedar Falls Utility and Simple Mining, the company behind the cryptocurrency operation, say their projects will not negatively impact the public or the environment. Residents at Tuesday night’s meeting showed skepticism about those claims.

People are concerned about noise levels and water and electricity usage. Simple Mining says its crypto mining will use a closed loop water cooling system, which will allow the operation to use very little water. The company also says it can be shut down quickly when energy rates are higher.

Matt Hein, Simple Mining Director of Energy Infrastructure, said the company’s energy usage is a benefit to Cedar Falls.

“Our large consumption of electricity is an economic benefit to the city of Cedar Falls,” Hein said. “We help pay for schools, we help pay for roads.”

People worry high energy usage will push their utility bills up.

Cedar Falls Utility says the power plant was planned for years before the crypto operation became part of the picture.

Crypto

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 8-Month High Above 4.4%, Pulls Back on Middle East Ceasefire Reports

Published

2 days ago

March 25, 2026

Press Room

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 8-Month High Above 4.4%, Pulls Back on Middle East Ceasefire Reports

Bond Market Selloff Pushes 10-Year Yield

The move reflected a sharp repricing of inflation and fiscal risk. Bond prices fell as investors demanded higher returns on longer-dated government debt, pushing the 10-year yield to close at approximately 4.39% on Tuesday, according to data tracked by Ycharts and the St. Louis Fed’s FRED database.

Three overlapping pressures drove the climb. The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict — including airstrikes and troop deployments, raised fears of oil supply disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz. Crude prices spiked, embedding higher energy costs into inflation expectations and pulling bond prices lower, particularly at the long end of the curve.

10 Year Treasury Rate (I:10YTCMR) via Ycharts.

Fiscal concerns compounded the move. Increased military spending added to already elevated deficit projections, deepening term-premium pressure on Treasuries. Weak recent bond auctions further signaled reduced demand from investors, questioning long-term fiscal sustainability.

The Federal Reserve provided no offset. At its March 18 meeting, the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% in an 11-1 vote, citing sticky inflation, solid economic activity, and uncertainty tied to the Iran conflict. The Fed’s dot plot still projected one rate cut in 2026, but futures markets largely priced out meaningful easing this year — with some traders pushing rate-cut expectations into 2027.

That hawkish stance steepened the yield curve. Short-term rates stayed anchored while long-end yields rose on persistent inflation bets — a classic “higher for longer” repricing that forced an unwind of leveraged bond positions.

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, flagged the technical significance of the move. “While the 10-year yield broke out of a short-term range, the weekly chart still shows bonds holding within a long triangle in place since 2022,” Timmer wrote Wednesday. “If it breaks, it will be a problem not only for bonds but equities and other assets as well.” He added that yields are rising globally: “This is a global reset.”

Keith McCullough, CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, pointed to the trend’s staying power. “10-Year Yield Holds Uptrend as Inflation Nowcast Accelerates during Quad3,” McCullough posted Wednesday. “The bond market isn’t buying the narrative. 10Y still making higher highs and lows. Range: 4.20–4.43%.”

Wednesday’s partial reversal showed how sensitive yields remain to geopolitical headlines. As ceasefire reports circulated, the 10-year traded near 4.32%–4.33%, giving back a portion of the prior day’s advance.

Timmer’s earlier note captured the line markets are watching: “Nothing good happens above 4.5% when the risk-free rate is competitive with risky assets.” That level sits roughly 17 basis points above Tuesday’s close.

Whether yields resume their climb depends on two variables: sustained inflation data and any re-escalation in the Middle East. Markets are positioned for both. For now, the 10-year yield remains a live stress indicator, not just for bonds, but for equities, credit, and rate-sensitive sectors across the U.S. economy.

FAQ 🔎

Why did the 10-year Treasury yield rise above 4.4% in March 2026? The yield climbed due to overlapping pressures from U.S.-Iran conflict oil fears, elevated federal deficit spending, and a Federal Reserve holding rates steady with few cuts expected in 2026.
What does a higher 10-year Treasury yield mean for the U.S. economy? Rising long-term yields increase borrowing costs for mortgages, corporate debt, and government financing, putting pressure on equities and rate-sensitive sectors.
When did the 10-year yield last trade this high? The March 24, 2026 close near 4.39% marked the highest level in approximately eight months, dating back to around July 2025.
Will U.S. Treasury yields continue rising in 2026? Analysts say the path depends on incoming inflation data and whether the Middle East conflict escalates further or moves toward a sustained ceasefire.