Montana

New Research Suggests Montana FWP Wolf Count High

Published

1 year ago

December 15, 2023

New Research Suggests Montana FWP Wolf Count High

Robert Crabtree, chief scientist at the Yellowstone Ecological Research Center based in Bozeman, has released a research paper questioning the modeling techniques used by Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks. The paper has not been peer reviewed, something FWP brings into question. Photo by Holly Pippel

by Laura Lundquist

As the comment period on Montana’s new wolf management plan nears
its end, new research adds to questions about Montana’s wolf population
estimates. But the timing of the research paper—released before peer-review—raises
its own questions.

Last week, the Bozeman-based Yellowstone Ecological Research
Center, an independent organization, pre-released a research paper that
documented statistical problems with the population model developed and used by
Fish, Wildlife and Parks to estimate wolf populations. The paper was preprinted
by CABI, an international research organization based out of Britain.

Robert Crabtree, YERC’s chief scientist,
joined with statisticians from the University of Albert, Canada, to run
simulations to assess the iPOM, or integrated Patch Occupancy Model, that FWP
has used to estimate wolf populations since 2021 under the Gianforte
administration. Their results indicated that iPOM has a bias that produces high
population estimates, which could lure wildlife managers into thinking a
species is doing better than it might be in reality.

Because field monitoring requires a good deal of time and effort,
it costs more than computer modeling. So wildlife agencies dealing with elusive
species find modeling an attractive option. However, models require users to
make a number of assumptions and choose particular conditions. If those choices
and assumptions don’t reflect reality, then, as computer scientists say, “garbage
in equals garbage out.”

According to Crabtree and his colleagues, that’s the problem with
iPOM, and the result is that FWP’s estimates of the wolf populations are
significantly greater than what actually exists.

“We demonstrated iPOM has an inherent severe overestimation bias,
which inflates [the number of packs] and abundance by a factor of 2.5 times [150%
higher] by this one effect alone,” Crabtree wrote in the journal article.

The 2022 FWP commission approved an increase in the state killing quota to 456 wolves. This year, it was reduced to 313. Photo by Gary Kramer/USFWS

After wolves were delisted in Montana in 2011, biologists
directly monitored them for five years with field observations and radio
collars to make minimum counts for five years to be sure the delisting wasn’t
premature. They calculated wolf abundance by figuring out the number of packs
that actually existed and multiplying that by the pack size.

Then, from 2016 to 2020, FWP switched to a six-variable Patch
Occupancy Model developed by FWP and Sarah Sells of the U.S. Geological Survey
Montana Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit. Sells said at a public meeting
Wednesday night that FWP used POM prior to 2016 and was using it alongside
minimum counts.

In 2021, Sells and FWP changed the Patch Occupancy Model to iPOM
and eliminated one variable: the amount of territory overlap, according to the
2020 Annual Wolf Report. When the wolf numbers from previous years were plugged
into iPOM, each year’s population estimate increased. For example, in 2014, the
POM population estimate of approximately 920 wolves jumped to about 1,125 using
iPOM.

For his analysis, Crabtree told Mountain Journal he
contacted Sells this past spring to get the modeling code and the data she
used.

“I took painstaking effort to document everything, keep it
completely above-board, consulted and talked to Sarah Sells many times since
last spring. Everything is repeatable, and it’s up to the state now. We did
their work for them,” Crabtree said. “I substantiated the major bias, and I was
shocked to see what an overestimation bias there was.”

Crabtree’s paper said one problem with the iPOM is it uses three sub-models to
calculate the variables, and using multiple models can compound error. One
model calculates the total area occupied by wolves within a region while the
other calculates Territory Size of a pack. Dividing the Occupied Area by
Territory Size produces the estimated number of packs. A third sub-model
determines wolf abundance by multiplying the number of packs by the pack size,
just as before.

Crabtree’s article said rather than demographic models, the first
two sub-models are spatial models, which are used to model distribution, not
abundance. The Occupied Area sub-model assumes “closure,” meaning it assumes
the wolf population in a grid square doesn’t change; no wolves are born, die,
or leave or enter a grid square. However, the squares are large, about 232
square miles each. Such an assumption tends to overestimate the number of
wolves, as other researchers found in Wisconsin.

“Based on biological knowledge of seasonal variation in wolf pack
cohesion and dispersal combined with their normal high mobility and
wide-ranging behavior, we concluded that many of [the model] assumptions were
likely violated, especially the critical assumption of closure—no changes in
occupancy due to movements or demography,” Crabtree wrote.

“We demonstrated iPOM has an inherent severe overestimation bias, which inflates [the number of packs] and abundance by a factor of 2.5 times [150% higher] by this one effect alone.” – Robert Crabtree, Yellowstone Ecological Research Center

The Crabtree article said the model could be improved if the grid
size was reduced. But Wisconsin researcher Glenn Stauffer published in a 2021 Journal
of Wildlife Management study that even cell sizes as small as 39 square
miles caused populations to be overestimated. Stauffer also warned of problems
using spatial models to estimate abundance, concluding that “estimates rely on
somewhat subjective pack assignments, and likely deviate from true abundance to
an unknown and possibly variable degree.”

Montana State University biologist Scott Creel published a white
paper—not peer-reviewed—comparing iPOM’s territory size to what he’s documented
and found iPOM underestimated pack territory, which would lead to an
overestimation of the number of packs.

Crabtree’s paper also suggested that FWP should consider
replacing iPOM with an alternative, such as a hierarchical model using accurate
data, because “they provide a clear understanding of the relationship between
data and the ecological processes of wildlife populations.” Another option is
looking at genetic samples combined with capture-recapture methods.

In science, it’s not unusual for scientists to challenge each
other on new ideas, and battling articles can appear in various journals as
they seek to eliminate unsupported hypotheses. But for researchers, the
important thing about being published in a scientific journal is passing peer
review. Sells and other FWP biologists published the iPOM method in the journal
Ecological Applications in August 2022. Crabtree’s work hasn’t been
peer-reviewed yet.

When asked why he preprinted the article, Crabtree said it’s a
quicker way to get through the peer-review process because he’s able to submit
successive drafts to the CABI site and it’s a stronger paper after he
incorporates all the comments from other scientists. The study was funded by
the Jodar Family Foundation and the Rangeland Foundation.

According to several journals, including Springer Nature and the science and medical site PLOS, a preprint
is a full draft of a research paper that is shared publicly before it has been
peer reviewed. An increasing number of researchers are doing preprints,
especially since the pandemic, because they allow for early feedback, increased
visibility and ensure a researcher gets credit for a particular discovery. But scientists
know that, being public, it could also lead to a bad reputation if there are
too many preprints with no peer-reviewed follow up.

Crabtree told the Mountain Journal he intends to publish
in a scientific journal—probably to Ecological Applications—after he
gets feedback and suggestions from other researchers.

“We believe that peer review will address the severe misinterpretations in the Crabtree et al. analysis prior to being published.” – Rebuttal statement from Montana FWP and Sarah Sells, USGS

Along the lines of feedback, Crabtree said Sells contacted him the
week of December 3 after she saw the preprint and said he misunderstood how
iPOM works. When asked for comment, FWP and Sells instead released a joint two-page response to
Crabtree’s paper on December 13.

They said the Crabtree article made the mistake of assuming that
iPOM used an entire grid square—232 square miles—where wolves were observed.
They said they assume that any wolves they observe occupy each square for only
about 20 percent of the time so that’s factored in to effectively decrease the
grid size. They use Crabtree’s assumption to show that his occupied area would
3.38 times the size of their iPOM calculations.

“We believe that peer review will address the severe
misinterpretations in the Crabtree et al. analysis prior to being published,
and if it is published in the peer-reviewed literature we will respond in
detail in that forum. However, as the article has already been posted online
ahead of the wolf plan comment deadline and distributed to the press, we
briefly address their key arguments,” the biologists wrote in their rebuttal. “We look forward to a scientific discussion of iPOM with Crabtree
et al. conducted under the scrutiny of scientific peer review … Until that occurs,
however, the methods and conclusions of Crabtree et al. must be considered
preliminary and weakly supported at best.”

In response to FWP’s rebuttal, Crabtree said he ran the iPOM
model with the data he received from Sells, so they should have come out with
the same results.

“What they describe in their response are not methods described
in their publication. Is there another method they are using? Why wasn’t this
communicated to us earlier when we asked about clarification of the POM
method used in iPOM? I even let [Sells] know that the overestimation
problem was about spatial resolution. Why didn’t she respond?” Crabtree
said.

By trying to reproduce FWP’s iPOM results, Crabtree was doing
something that has led many scientists to voice concern about the “replication
crisis.” Increasingly, research written up in peer-reviewed articles is not
reproducible. Researchers have discovered over the past decade that lots of published
findings in fields like psychology, sociology, medicine and economics don’t hold up when other researchers try to
replicate them. But quality science, in addition to being peer-reviewed, must
be reproducible by other scientists.

Whether the disagreement on results is due to error on Crabtree’s
end or that of Sells’ remains to be seen.

During public comments to the FWP commission on December 14,
attention was brought to Crabtree’s paper several times. Some say that enough
questions have been raised about the iPOM that managers shouldn’t base wildlife
decisions on the estimates until the model has been more thoroughly reviewed.
Especially when there have been suggestions that FWP may use iPOM for grizzly
bear management.

A year ago, WildEarth Guardians and Project Coyote filed a complaint against FWP, the FWP
commission and the state of Montana, asking a Lewis and Clark County judge to stop the wolf season after the 2022
FWP commission approved an increase in the state killing quota to 456 wolves. This year, it was
reduced to 313. Part of the lawsuit takes FWP to task for changing the method
used to estimate wolf populations without going through a public process.
Another charge challenged the 2004 wolf management plan as being out-of-date,
which led to FWP writing a new plan, the draft of which is currently accepting
public comment.

Lizzy Pennock, WildEarth Guardians carnivore coexistence attorney, said
WildEarth Guardians has submitted comments challenging the use of iPOM in FWP’s
new wolf plan.

“We gave them [MSU biologist Scott] Creel’s statement in the
scoping period, and they didn’t consider it in the draft EIS. They just
regurgitated the same things: here’s why iPOM’s great. They didn’t engage in a
meaningful analysis of ‘here are some potential risks of iPOM and how we’re
going to manage for it,’” Pennock said.

Public comment on the draft wolf plan closes on December 19.

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Search for missing Montana woman suspended at landfill north of Great Falls

Published

4 hours ago

December 16, 2024

Press Room

Search for missing Montana woman suspended at landfill north of Great Falls

The search for a missing Conrad woman at the High Plains Landfill north of Great Falls has been suspended, the Cascade County Sheriff’s Office announced on Monday afternoon.

Alicia Wood, 46, was last seen on Nov. 22 and was reported missing on Nov. 30 to the Conrad Police Department. Wood’s car was found abandoned on the side of Highway 91 between Conrad and Brady and blood was later found inside the vehicle.

The Montana Department of Criminal Investigation took over the case and a lead prompted a search for Wood at the landfill. The search began on Dec. 5 and lasted nine days.

“The is not a decision we took lightly, however, we feel we have conducted a thorough search of our landfill based on the information and leads provided,” Cascade County Sheriff Jesse Slaughter said in a statement.

DCI and the Pondera County Sheriff’s Office will continue to lead the investigation.

“As I said at the beginning of our search this is just one lead in this investigation. I’m confident that the Division of Criminal Investigation will continue to follow all current and future leads,” Slaughter said.

Anyone with information about the disappearance of Alicia Woods is asked to contact the Division of Criminal Investigation by calling or 406-444-3874 or emailing contactdci@mt.gov.

The Cascade County Sheriff’s Office also thanked the numerous law enforcement and civilian agencies who assisted in the landfill search, as well as community supporters who provided meals for the search party.

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7 Most Unconventional Towns In Montana

Published

12 hours ago

December 16, 2024

Press Room

Millions of Americans and visitors from all over the world come every year to Montana, and perhaps most know the Big Sky Country state for its access to renowned national parks, like Glacier and Yellowstone. But it offers so much more. A confluence of cultural forces has shaped this region — from the Native American traditions to the gold rushes — and it is that Old West spirit that Montana’s residents have proudly kept alive. In Montana, we’ve discovered seven of the most unconventional towns. They dot the Montana map, inviting visitors to experience and be fully immersed in the state’s heritage and traditions.

Philipsburg brings a bygone mining era back to life. Red Lodge is the ultimate rugged alpine experience. Bigfork is valued for its art scene and summer theater. Livingstone is the “Gateway to Yellowstone.” Virginia City is a well-preserved gold rush historical experience. Whitefish is a haven for outdoorsy types, but it also has a touch of sophistication. Fort Benton, is remembered as the “Birthplace of Montana.” Join the tour and discover how each of these towns is as unique as the landscapes they inhabit.

Philipsburg

Philipsburg, Montana. By Mark de Vries – CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons.

Nested in a verdant valley between the Sapphire Mountains and Flint Creek is the town of Philipsburg, with its dense pine forests and alpine lakes. The downtown is marked by restored 19th-century buildings with colorful frontages. The friendly town has a nostalgic vibe with its antique shops and boutique shopping, such as the Sweet Palace, a candy store. Historical landmarks include the Opera House Theatre, built in 1891, and The Granite Country Museum, showcasing the town’s mining heritage. Sapphire mining at Gem Mountain is a unique experience. The Granite Ghost Town State Park and the annual Flint Creek Valley Days festival with its parade and live music make Philipsburg extra special.

Red Lodge

With access to Beartooth Highway, what has been dubbed “the most beautiful drive in America,” Red Lodge is an exceptional town. The downtown boasts of Wild West-style architecture, with saloons, eateries and art galleries. Historical landmarks are The Carbon County Historical Society and Museum, displaying the town’s ranching and mining history. Commercial attractions include the Yellowstone Wildlife Sanctuary. The town is settled at the base of the Beartooth Mountains and surrounded by rolling meadows.

Bigfork

Enveloped by forests, rolling hills and settled along the northeastern shore of Flathead Lake is the town of Bigfork. Bigfork’s downtown blends rustic log cabins with modern designs. The charming town is lined with bistros, galleries and shops. The town has a thriving art scene, annual events like the Bigfork Festival of the Arts, brings the whole community together. Wayfarers State Park provides breathtaking views of Flathead Lake and is rich in Native American history. One thing that is special about this town is The Bigfork Summer Playhouse, a seasonal theater that has given the town the nickname “Montana’s Broadway.”

Livingston

Downtown Livingston with its turn-of-the-century brick buildings hosting quirky cafes, bars and bookshops, presents residents and visitors with a relaxed, artsy vibe. The town is prized as a “foodie paradise” with local favorites like Fainting Goat Pub and Engine Room Deep Dish Pizza. Lying along the Yellowstone River, the small town is surrounded by the Crazy and Absaroka mountains. One thing that stands out is Livingston hosts an annual famous rodeo and has become known as the “Gateway to Yellowstone.” The Livingston Depot Center is a restored train station, which showcases the town’s railroad history. Livingston is a haven for outdoor enthusiasts with activities like fly-fishing, hiking and, of course, access to Yellowstone National Park.

Virginia City

Once known as “Fourteen Mile City,” the gold rush era town of Virginia City is based in a valley and surrounded by sagebrush hills and the Tobacco Root Mountains. During its heyday period the town was regarded as a social center and transportation hub in the region. Today the entire town is a historic site. Something that makes Virginia City unusual is the town actors that bring the mid-1800s to life again. The small settlement feels like a well-preserved ghost town with its wooden sidewalks, saloons, and mercantile shops. Be sure not to miss the Virginia City Opera House and Alder Gulch. Visitors can pan for gold and take a historic stagecoach ride.

Whitefish

The town of Whitefish has a unique tradition, known as their annual Huckleberry Days, which celebrates the local berry. A gateway to Glacier National Park, surrounded by forests and lakes with views of Big Mountain, Whitefish is plentiful in natural beauties, with much to explore and see. The downtown combines rustic architecture with a sophisticated modern touch. Be sure to check out the Whitefish Farmers’ Market, along with the many fine dining options and boutiques. Big Mountain has the best skiing in the winter and the tail rides through Bar W Guest Ranch are second to none. No visit to Whitefish is complete without some time by or on the water. Whitefish City Beach is a great place for the whole family to play. The Great Northern Railway Depot and Whitefish Lake State Parks are historical landmarks.

Fort Benton

When visitors drive past herds of antelope and deer while enjoying majestic views in all directions, they quickly come to understand why Fort Benton has been praised for its beauty by both Forbes and National Geographic Traveler. Located along the Missouri River and surrounded by rolling planes and the region’s rich agricultural land, Fort Benton is a gem of a town. Fort Benton’s downtown blends well-maintained frontier-era buildings and modern designs. Landmarks include The Lewis and Clark Memorial and the Museum of the Upper Missouri, which display the town’s role in westward expansion. Be sure to book boat tours with groups like Upper Missouri River Guides for excursions along the Missouri River that showcase views of bluffs and local wildlife.

Parting Thoughts

Montana is the fourth-largest state in the U.S., covering over 147,000 square miles. Its name comes from the Spanish word montaña, meaning “mountain,” reflecting its dramatic landscapes. The Missouri River, one of North America’s longest rivers, begins in Montana. The state experiences a range of weather, from snowy winters to warm summers. Rich in history, Montana was once home to Native American tribes like the Crow and Blackfeet. Today, it’s celebrated for its outdoor recreation, including hiking, fishing, and skiing. These seven most unconventional towns in Montana are each marked out for something special in their natures, which have become woven together into the cultural tapestry of this Old West state. From world class national parks to outstanding natural wonders to rich Native American and gold rush histories, these towns are quintessentially Montana.

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USC men’s basketball continues to hit stride with blowout of Montana State

Published

20 hours ago

December 16, 2024

Press Room

LOS ANGELES — Everything he says in front of a microphone, Eric Musselman smirked Sunday, is calculated. And he speaks, firstly, not to the general public. He speaks, firstly, to his own program.

Two weeks ago, USC reeling amid a three-game losing streak, head coach Musselman told reporters “I don’t know how many Big Ten games we’re gonna win” after a loss to Oregon. It was not the work of loose lips, fueled by emotion. It was planned. It was a coach who was fully aware his players had eyes and ears and social media, and would no doubt see a clip of their head coach questioning his program’s very ability nine games into their season.

And in the weeks to come, as guard Desmond Claude affirmed Sunday night, Musselman’s players have wanted to hit the hardwood and show him.

“I would say,” wing Saint Thomas said Sunday, with a smirk of his own, “I definitely seen what he said.”

There is life in this USC program yet, and life in the Galen Center, life created by the media-manipulation mind games of a 60-year-old HC who was forged amid the drama of the NBA.

A week after the Trojans followed up that Oregon loss by bludgeoning Washington on the road, they returned home to blitz Montana State on Sunday night in an end-to-end 89-63 win.

“I mean, we were playing bad basketball a couple games ago, and that’s the real,” Thomas said. “And him speaking up like that, I think, kind of got us out of our funk.”

Claude continued a three-game stretch of immaculate play, finishing with 19 points on 6-of-8 from the floor and 7-of-8 on free throws. Thomas added 17 points, seven rebounds, four assists and three blocks.

USC never once trailed, and the ballgame was all but over by the 10-minute mark. Thomas drained a three to put the Trojans up 27-5 early on an overwhelmed Big Sky opponent.

Suddenly, in a conference known for plodding big men and gritty offense, free-flowing USC (7-4, 1-1 Big Ten) looks like the kind of program that could give a host of Big Ten schools fits.

“We’re starting to turn it around,” Claude said postgame. “And — yeah, we just wanted to prove everybody wrong.”

The team’s “only problem” at the moment, as Thomas said postgame, was guarding the ball and playing team defense. Maybe not only. But regardless, it had bit USC for weeks, and with his ideas already exhausted Musselman turned to his roots.

He and staff, after the Oregon game, reached out to a host of NBA teams and coaches for ideas on defensive drills, Musselman said after Sunday’s game. Since then, they’ve drilled two-on-two pick-and-roll actions for 14 days straight.

“We just needed to put them in some different situations,” Musselman said postgame. “And I thought it really helped us.”

For minutes, to open Sunday’s game, Montana State had difficulty even getting a shot off before red zeroes blared. MSU started just 2-of-13 from the floor, and USC’s defensive rotations and help in the paint look massively improved. And on the other end, a team that had played a sort of discombobulated your-turn, my-turn offense swung the rock as if they’d been buddies since childhood.

One possession with about nine minutes remaining in the first half was pure symphony. First came a slew of DHOs to get Thomas driving off a pick-and-roll. Then came a baseline cut by Matt Knowling and a find by Thomas. Then came a touch-pass to the corner from Knowling to Clark Slajchert. Then came an immediate drive-and-dump by Slajchert to big Rashaun Agee, a slew of split-second instinctive reads culminating in a thunderous jam from Agee.

After USC took a 47-21 halftime lead, Claude kept his program afloat in the second half, repeatedly breaking down bigs off pick-and-roll actions and attacking downhill relentlessly to the tune of 15 points after the break.

“He’s become a really, really hard player to defend,” Musselman said postgame.

Two weeks ago, in front of that microphone at Oregon, Musselman could’ve taken a wildly different route. They’d lost in the final minutes to the then-12th-ranked team in the nation, after all. It was a sign of progress.

But the man was thinking steps ahead and dropped the words that have sparked a turnaround.

“The truth hurts sometimes,” Thomas said, on Sunday. “But hey, the truth got us to where we are now.”

Originally Published: December 15, 2024 at 8:16 PM PST

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