Politics
State of the Race: Six key Senate seats Republicans look to flip in 2024
Senate seats could flip in several states
Fox News congressional correspondent Aishah Hasnie previews some of the key races that could dictate the balance of power for the U.S. Senate in 2024 on ‘Special Report.’
Republicans are gearing up for what could be an epic showdown for majority control of the Senate with several contentious elections around the country later this year.
Democrats control the U.S. Senate with a 51-49 majority, but Republicans are looking at a favorable Senate map in 2024, with Democrats defending 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs. Three of those seats are in red states former Donald Trump carried in 2020 — West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.
Five other seats, one of which is held by an independent, are in key swing states narrowly carried by President Biden in 2020 — Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Texas and Florida, where incumbents Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, respectively, are seeking re-election, appear to be the only potentially competitive GOP-held seats up for grabs next year.
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From left to right: Montana GOP Senate candidate Tim Sheehy; Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont.; Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisc.; Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio; Arizona GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake; and Pennsylvania GOP Senate candidate Dave McCormick. (Getty Images)
Ohio
Longtime Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is the only member of his party to win a non-judicial, statewide election in Ohio in the past decade. As Brown runs in 2024 for a fourth six-year term representing Ohio, he is facing heavy targeting by Republicans in the state that was once a premier general election battleground but has shifted red over the past six years.
Trump carried Ohio by eight points in his 2016 presidential election victory and his 2020 re-election defeat. Last year, Trump’s handpicked Senate candidate in Ohio, Sen. JD Vance, topped longtime Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan by six points despite Ryan running what political experts considered a nearly flawless campaign.
Brown, who has served as a congressman, state lawmaker and Ohio secretary of state during his nearly half-century career in politics, has reportedly raked in $5.7 million in the first two months of 2024, giving his campaign $13.5 million on hand.
Two Republicans who ran unsuccessfully against Vance for the 2022 GOP Senate nomination in Ohio — state Sen. Matt Dolan and businessman Bernie Moreno — are in the race to oust Brown.
Dolan, a former top county prosecutor and Ohio assistant attorney general, launched his campaign in January 2023. Dolan, whose family owns Major League Baseball’s Cleveland Guardians, shelled out millions of his own money to run ads for his 2022 Senate bid.
He surged near the end of the primary race, finishing third in a crowded field of Republican contenders, winning nearly a quarter of the vote.
Moreno, a successful Cleveland-based businessman and luxury auto dealership magnate, declared his candidacy in April. An immigrant who arrived in the U.S. legally from Colombia with his family as a 5-year-old boy, Moreno also shelled out millions of his own money to run TV commercials to try and boost his first Senate bid. But he suspended his campaign in February 2022 after requesting and holding a private meeting with Trump.
In July, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose joined the race, launching a much-anticipated Senate campaign. The state’s primary election is scheduled for March 19.
Ohio GOP Senate candidates Matt Dolan, Frank LaRose and Bernie Moreno are vying for their party’s nomination in the state’s March 19 primary. (AP)
Montana
Democrats breathed a sigh of relief when Sen. Jon Tester of Montana announced earlier this year that he would seek re-election in 2024 in a state Trump carried by 16 points in the 2020 presidential election. The Democratic incumbent, who’s running unopposed, had hauled in a formidable $15 million in fundraising as of the end of 2023.
Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and Purple Heart recipient who notched more than 200 missions in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and elsewhere around the globe, launched a Republican Senate bid in late June.
Sheehy, the CEO of Bridger Aerospace, a Montana-based aerial firefighting and wildfire surveillance services company, enjoys the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s (NRSC) backing and received an endorsement from Trump last month.
Sheehy will face off against four other GOP hopefuls, including former Montana Secretary of State Brad Johnson, in the state’s June 4 primary election.
Rep. Matt Rosendale, a hard-right congressman, had initially launched a bid for the Senate seat before withdrawing from the race.
Following his withdrawal, Rosendale, who narrowly lost to Tester in the 2018 Senate election, said he would seek re-election in Montana’s 2nd Congressional District. That plan, however, was halted last week when Rosendale announced he was suspending his House campaign, citing “current attacks” against him.
The campaign for Tester, who’s running unopposed, announced it had hauled in $15 million at the end of 2023. (Getty Images )
West Virginia
With Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., not seeking re-election, the race for the Senate in West Virginia is looking brighter for Republicans as they seek to flip the seat from blue to red.
Last year, NRSC Chairman Sen. Steve Daines said, “We like our odds in West Virginia.”
Right now, the main action is in the Republican Senate primary, where popular Democrat-turned-Republican Gov. Jim Justice has the backing of the NRSC and Trump. Among Justice’s six Republican challengers, the leading rival for the GOP Senate nomination is GOP Rep. Alex Mooney, who represents the state’s 2nd Congressional District and has received support from the fiscally conservative Club for Growth.
The first Democrat to jump into the race following Manchin’s departure was 32-year-old Zachary Shrewsbury, a native West Virginian and Marine Corps veteran. Two other Democrats — Don Blankenship and Glenn Elliott — are also running.
Manchin announced in November he would not be seeking re-election to his post in the upper chamber, saying in a video posted to X he believes he “accomplished what I set out to do for West Virginia” during his tenure in the Senate. Manchin, who previously served as governor of the state, was first elected to the Senate to represent West Virginia in a 2010 special election.
The state’s primary election is slated to take place May 14.
Rep. Alex Mooney, R-W.Va., left, and Republican West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, right. (Getty/AP Photo/Chris Jackson)
Wisconsin
In Wisconsin, incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisc., is looking to retain her post in the upper chamber and clinch a third term in office.
Baldwin, who announced her candidacy in the race last April, has represented the Badger State in the Senate since 2013. She previously served in the Wisconsin State Assembly and represented the state’s 2nd Congressional District in the House from 1999 to 2013.
Running unopposed, Baldwin has received strong support from her party on a state and national level. However, Republicans are eager to make an attempt to win the seat this cycle.
GOP businessman and real estate mogul Eric Hovde launched his bid for the Senate in February and quickly became a target for Democrats as the party seeks to maintain control of the seat.
The Senate Majority PAC went up with a $2 million ad buy last week targeting Hovde as a “multi-millionaire California banker.” The ad attempted to portray Hovde as an “out-of-touch carpetbagger” whose interests don’t align with those of the Wisconsin constituency.
Recognizing the ad campaign, Mike Berg, the communications director for the NRSC, wrote on X: “How bad are @TammyBaldwin and @SenSchumer panicking about @EricHovde?”
Hovde previously ran in 2012 but lost in the GOP primary to former Gov. Tommy Thompson. Baldwin went on to win the general election that year.
Hovde formally launched his bid for the U.S. Senate in February. (Eric Hovde campaign)
Arizona
With Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s announcement that she won’t seek re-election, the spotlight for the Senate race in the battleground state of Arizona has shifted to two prominent candidates — Rep. Ruben Gallego, a Democrat who represents the state’s 3rd Congressional District, and Republican Kari Lake, who previously made a run for governor of the state in 2022.
It was reported earlier this year that Gallego, the top Democrat seeking the Senate seat, had raised $3.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Since launching his bid for the seat in January 2023, Gallego’s campaign reported raising $13 million earlier this year.
Lake, a former TV news anchor who has been endorsed by several leading Senate Republicans and Trump, instantly became the GOP frontrunner when she jumped into the race last October.
Politico reported in January that Lake had “raised $2 million in the roughly 11 weeks after she entered the race, but she quickly spent nearly half that haul,” leaving her with a “little over $1 million in the bank — and $308,000 in debt” to start 2024.
Prior to Lake entering the race, Mark Lamb, a Republican who serves as sheriff for Pinal County, filed paperwork to run for the seat last April. Seven other Republicans are also seeking their party’s nomination for the seat in the state’s July 30 primary election.
From left to right: Republican Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb; Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz.; Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz.; and former Republican Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake. (Getty Images)
Pennsylvania
The Keystone State, a perennial general election battleground, will likely live up to its reputation once again in 2024 as it holds what will arguably be one of the most competitive and expensive Senate races in the country.
Sen. Bob Casey, a Democrat who served a decade as the state’s auditor general and then treasurer before first winning election to the Senate in 2006, is seeking a fourth six-year term in office.
Casey, who is not expected to face any serious Democratic primary challenge, is the son of a popular former governor.
Republicans appear united behind Dave McCormick, who is making his second straight Senate run. McCormick narrowly lost the state’s 2022 GOP Senate primary election to Dr. Mehmet Oz, who went on to lose in the general election to former Braddock Mayor John Fetterman.
McCormick, a former hedge fund executive, West Point graduate, Gulf War combat veteran and Treasury Department official in former President George W. Bush’s administration, was endorsed by the Pennsylvania GOP in late September, soon after he entered the race.
Casey, a Democrat who first won election to the Senate in 2006, is seeking a fourth six-year term in office. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
Axios reported in January that McCormick had raised $5.4 million in his first quarter as a candidate. Casey’s campaign announced at the beginning of the year that it had raised more than $3.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.
McCormick had been courted by national and state Republicans to run, and his candidacy gives the GOP a high-profile candidate with the ability to finance his own race.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.
The urgent radio calls by the air traffic controllers at the Federal Aviation Administration office in Puerto Rico started to go out on Thursday evening as a SpaceX test flight exploded and debris began to rain toward the Caribbean.
Flights near Puerto Rico needed to avoid passing through the area — or risk being hit by falling chunks of the Starship, the newest and biggest of Elon Musk’s rockets.
“Space vehicle mishap,” an air traffic controller said over the F.A.A. radio system, as onlookers on islands below and even in some planes flying nearby saw bright streaks of light as parts of the spacecraft tumbled toward the ocean.
Added a second air traffic controller: “We have reports of debris outside of the protected areas so we’re currently going to have to hold you in this airspace.”
The mishap — the Starship spacecraft blew up as it was still climbing into space — led the F.A.A. on Friday to suspend any additional liftoffs by SpaceX’s Starship, the largest and most powerful rocket ever built.
The incident raises new questions about both the safety of the rapidly increasing number of commercial space launches, or at least the air traffic disruption being caused by them.
It also is the latest incident highlighting the conflicts that Elon Musk’s new role in the Trump administration will bring. He will have the remit to recommend changes, and potentially budget cuts, to government agencies including the F.A.A. That tension could hamper investigations like the one announced on Friday.
Mr. Musk, who is preparing to travel to Washington to participate in Mr. Trump’s inauguration, expressed confidence even as of Thursday night that SpaceX would resolve questions about the explosion quickly and restart test flights.
“Nothing so far suggests pushing next launch past next month,” Mr. Musk wrote on his social media site, X.
Mr. Musk also made fun of the spectacle the explosion created, as the debris fell toward Turks and Caicos Islands. “Success is uncertain, but entertainment is guaranteed!” he wrote atop a video of the fiery debris falling toward earth.
The explosion happened after the Starship’s second stage — which is slated to carry cargo or even astronauts on their way to the moon during future missions — separated from the lower Super Heavy booster, and was flying at about 13,250 miles per hour, 90 miles above the Earth.
The Starship had already fired its own rockets to finish the trip into orbit, according to SpaceX’s ship tracking information, suggesting that at the time it blew up, it weighed somewhat more than 100 tons, which is the Starship’s approximate mass without fuel.
SpaceX and F.A.A. officials on Friday did not respond to questions submitted in writing and in interviews by The New York Times as to whether the explosion and falling debris may have represented a threat to any aircraft or people on the ground. It is unclear how much of the spacecraft might have burned up as it fell.
The agency did say there were no reports of injuries but is investigating reports of property damage on Turks and Caicos. It also said that several aircraft that were asked to hold in an area away from the falling debris ended up having to divert and return to other airports because of low fuel.
SpaceX, in a statement about this seventh Starship test flight, said that early data suggested that a fire had started in the rear section of the spacecraft, resulting in the explosion and the landing of debris in an area that SpaceX and the F.A.A. had already identified as liable to such hazards.
Closer to the South Texas launch site, at the edge of the Gulf of Mexico, all flights were already banned at the time of the launch. Starship was about 10 times higher than the altitude of commercial flights when it exploded, meaning there should have been time to warn any planes in the area to steer clear before any remaining debris approached.
SpaceX will be in charge of the mishap investigation, but it will be overseen by the F.A.A., which could allow it to resume test flights even before the investigation is complete, if SpaceX can document that the accident did not create a safety hazard.
Mr. Musk has previously expressed frustration at how long it takes the agency to approve Starship launch licenses. Now he will be a prominent member of the Trump administration, through his perch as a co-leader of an advisory group called the Department of Government Efficiency, with the power to evaluate federal spending and regulations.
“What this new administration might do is push this review to its conclusion faster,” said Todd Harrison, a former space industry executive at America Enterprise Institute.
He added that he expected some at F.A.A. might want to put new demands on SpaceX related to what time future Starship test flights launch, or broader restrictions on flights along more of the flight path.
Tim Farrar, a satellite industry consultant, said the incident showed the complications the United States is going to face as it ramps up space launches, both for the Pentagon as it builds out space warfighting capacity, and major commercial companies like SpaceX and Amazon that are building constellations with thousands of satellites to create global broadband internet access from orbit.
“How much can you realistically increase the tempo of these launches?” Mr. Farrar said.
There were 145 launches reaching orbit last year from the United States, compared with just 21 five years ago. An extraordinary 133 of those orbital launches were by SpaceX, which is now the world’s dominant space company, according to data collected by Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist who tracks launches globally.
Most of those SpaceX launches were by the Falcon 9 rocket, which is deploying Starlink communications satellites and Pentagon payloads and was not impacted by Friday’s F.A.A. order.
Blue Origin, the launch company created by Jeff Bezos, had its own rocket test on Thursday, reaching orbit for the first time with its spacecraft called New Glenn. But it launched from Cape Canaveral in Florida at 2:03 a.m., in part because there were fewer planes in the air then.
The surge in launch frequency, even before Thursday, has been generating complaints from airlines, including Qantas, the Australian-based carrier, which told reporters this month that it has had to delay several flights between Johannesburg and Sydney at the last minute because of debris from SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets.
“While we try to make any changes to our schedule in advance, the timing of recent launches have moved around at late notice which has meant we’ve had to delay some flights just prior to departure,” the Qantas executive said in a statement.
Hannah Walden, an Airlines for America spokeswoman, said the commercial airlines are tracking this issue closely.
“Safety is the top priority for U.S. airlines, and we are committed to ensuring the safety of all flights amidst the growing number of space launches,” she said in a statement. “We continuously collaborate and coordinate with the federal government and commercial space stakeholders to ensure the U.S. airspace remains safe for all users.”
Bill Nelson, the Biden-era National Aeronautics and Space Administration director, praised the test flight. The space agency has more than $4 billion worth of contracts with SpaceX to twice use Starship to land astronauts on the moon.
“Spaceflight is not easy,” he wrote Thursday night on Mr. Musk’s X platform. “It’s anything but routine. That’s why these tests are so important — each one bringing us closer on our path to the Moon and onward to Mars.”
Mark Walker contributed reporting.
The incoming Trump administration is eyeing immigration arrests of illegal immigrants across the country as soon as day one, as top officials say they are ready to “take the handcuffs off” Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
The Wall Street Journal reported that the administration is planning a large-scale raid in Chicago on Tuesday, targeting those with criminal backgrounds in particular.
Incoming border czar Tom Homan was asked by Fox News’ Jesse Watters about the media reports of a “big raid” on Tuesday in Chicago, but Homan said ICE will be working across the country.
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“There’s going to be a big raid across the country. Chicago is just one of many places. We’ve got 24 field offices across the country. On Tuesday, ICE is finally going to go out and do their job. We’re going to take the handcuffs off ICE and let them go arrest criminal aliens, that’s what’s going to happen,” he said.
“What we’re telling ICE, you’re going to enforce the immigration law without apology. You’re going to concentrate on the worst first, public safety threats first, but no one is off the table. If they’re in the country illegally, they got a problem,” he said.
The administration has promised a mass deportation operation, as well as increased border security. Officials have said they intend to target those with criminal histories and convictions, but have also stressed that they will potentially arrest anyone in the U.S. illegally. There are currently more than 7 million individuals on ICE’s non-detained docket.
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“The administration has been clear that we’re going to start arresting people on day one, and Chicago’s probably not going to be the only place that arrests are going to be made,” a source familiar told Fox News Digital.
The administration is expected to see significant pushback from “sanctuary” cities that refuse to allow state and local law enforcement to honor ICE detainers – requests that ICE be notified when illegal immigrants in custody are being released.
Some Democratic officials in Chicago, as well as Massachusetts and Arizona have said they will not co-operate with the administration.
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But New York City Mayor Eric Adams has met with Homan about how they can work together on removing illegal immigrants who have been convicted of violent crimes.
DHS nominee Kristi Noem testified to Congress on Friday, and threw her support behind the mass deportation operation and increasing border security. She also said the administration will immediately end the use of the CBP One app, which currently allows migrants to be paroled into the U.S.
Politics
Supreme Court will decide if parents have a religious liberty right to reject LGBTQ+ lessons for their kids
WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court agreed Friday to take up a culture wars dispute and decide whether parents have a religious liberty right to have their children “opt out” of using school textbooks and lesson plans with LGBTQ+ themes.
The court voted to hear an appeal from a group of Muslim, Jewish and Christian parents in Montgomery County, Md., who objected to new storybooks for elementary school children that they said “celebrate gender transitioning, pride parades, and pronoun preferences with kids as young as three and four.”
At first, the school board reacted to the complaints by saying parents could have their children excused from the class when the new textbooks were being used or discussed.
But after seeing a “growing number of opt out requests,” the school district reversed course in 2023 and said no opt-outs would be granted “for any reason.”
The parents then sued in federal court, citing the 1st Amendment’s protection for the free exercise of religion.
They were represented by the Becket Fund for Religious Liberty. After failing to win a court order in favor of the parents, they urged the Supreme Court to hear the case and to give parents an “opt out” right for books that they say offend their religious beliefs.
They argued many of the new “inclusivity” books for students from kindergarten to fifth grade champion a progressive ideology about gender and sexuality.
They cited one book that told 3- and 4-year-olds to search for images from a word list that includes “intersex flag,” “drag queen,” “underwear,” “leather.” Another book advocated a child-knows-best approach to gender transitioning, they said.
Eric Baxter, senior counsel at Becket, welcomed the court’s intervention.
“Cramming down controversial gender ideology on three-year-olds without their parents’ permission is an affront to our nation’s traditions, parental rights, and basic human decency,” he said in a statement. “The court must make clear: parents, not the state, should be the ones deciding how and when to introduce their children to sensitive issues about gender and sexuality.”
Last month, the school district’s lawyers said there was no reason for the justices to take up the case.
“Every court of appeals that has considered the question has held that mere exposure to controversial issues in a public-school curriculum does not burden the free religious exercise of parents or students,” they said. “Parents who choose to send their children to public school are not deprived of their right to freely exercise their religion simply because their children are exposed to curricular materials the parents find offensive.”
The justices are likely to schedule the case of Mahmoud vs. Taylor for arguments in late April.
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