Politics
State of the Race: Six key Senate seats Republicans look to flip in 2024
Senate seats could flip in several states
Fox News congressional correspondent Aishah Hasnie previews some of the key races that could dictate the balance of power for the U.S. Senate in 2024 on ‘Special Report.’
Republicans are gearing up for what could be an epic showdown for majority control of the Senate with several contentious elections around the country later this year.
Democrats control the U.S. Senate with a 51-49 majority, but Republicans are looking at a favorable Senate map in 2024, with Democrats defending 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs. Three of those seats are in red states former Donald Trump carried in 2020 — West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.
Five other seats, one of which is held by an independent, are in key swing states narrowly carried by President Biden in 2020 — Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Texas and Florida, where incumbents Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, respectively, are seeking re-election, appear to be the only potentially competitive GOP-held seats up for grabs next year.
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From left to right: Montana GOP Senate candidate Tim Sheehy; Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont.; Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisc.; Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio; Arizona GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake; and Pennsylvania GOP Senate candidate Dave McCormick. (Getty Images)
Ohio
Longtime Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is the only member of his party to win a non-judicial, statewide election in Ohio in the past decade. As Brown runs in 2024 for a fourth six-year term representing Ohio, he is facing heavy targeting by Republicans in the state that was once a premier general election battleground but has shifted red over the past six years.
Trump carried Ohio by eight points in his 2016 presidential election victory and his 2020 re-election defeat. Last year, Trump’s handpicked Senate candidate in Ohio, Sen. JD Vance, topped longtime Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan by six points despite Ryan running what political experts considered a nearly flawless campaign.
Brown, who has served as a congressman, state lawmaker and Ohio secretary of state during his nearly half-century career in politics, has reportedly raked in $5.7 million in the first two months of 2024, giving his campaign $13.5 million on hand.
Two Republicans who ran unsuccessfully against Vance for the 2022 GOP Senate nomination in Ohio — state Sen. Matt Dolan and businessman Bernie Moreno — are in the race to oust Brown.
Dolan, a former top county prosecutor and Ohio assistant attorney general, launched his campaign in January 2023. Dolan, whose family owns Major League Baseball’s Cleveland Guardians, shelled out millions of his own money to run ads for his 2022 Senate bid.
He surged near the end of the primary race, finishing third in a crowded field of Republican contenders, winning nearly a quarter of the vote.
Moreno, a successful Cleveland-based businessman and luxury auto dealership magnate, declared his candidacy in April. An immigrant who arrived in the U.S. legally from Colombia with his family as a 5-year-old boy, Moreno also shelled out millions of his own money to run TV commercials to try and boost his first Senate bid. But he suspended his campaign in February 2022 after requesting and holding a private meeting with Trump.
In July, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose joined the race, launching a much-anticipated Senate campaign. The state’s primary election is scheduled for March 19.
Ohio GOP Senate candidates Matt Dolan, Frank LaRose and Bernie Moreno are vying for their party’s nomination in the state’s March 19 primary. (AP)
Montana
Democrats breathed a sigh of relief when Sen. Jon Tester of Montana announced earlier this year that he would seek re-election in 2024 in a state Trump carried by 16 points in the 2020 presidential election. The Democratic incumbent, who’s running unopposed, had hauled in a formidable $15 million in fundraising as of the end of 2023.
Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and Purple Heart recipient who notched more than 200 missions in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and elsewhere around the globe, launched a Republican Senate bid in late June.
Sheehy, the CEO of Bridger Aerospace, a Montana-based aerial firefighting and wildfire surveillance services company, enjoys the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s (NRSC) backing and received an endorsement from Trump last month.
Sheehy will face off against four other GOP hopefuls, including former Montana Secretary of State Brad Johnson, in the state’s June 4 primary election.
Rep. Matt Rosendale, a hard-right congressman, had initially launched a bid for the Senate seat before withdrawing from the race.
Following his withdrawal, Rosendale, who narrowly lost to Tester in the 2018 Senate election, said he would seek re-election in Montana’s 2nd Congressional District. That plan, however, was halted last week when Rosendale announced he was suspending his House campaign, citing “current attacks” against him.
The campaign for Tester, who’s running unopposed, announced it had hauled in $15 million at the end of 2023. (Getty Images )
West Virginia
With Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., not seeking re-election, the race for the Senate in West Virginia is looking brighter for Republicans as they seek to flip the seat from blue to red.
Last year, NRSC Chairman Sen. Steve Daines said, “We like our odds in West Virginia.”
Right now, the main action is in the Republican Senate primary, where popular Democrat-turned-Republican Gov. Jim Justice has the backing of the NRSC and Trump. Among Justice’s six Republican challengers, the leading rival for the GOP Senate nomination is GOP Rep. Alex Mooney, who represents the state’s 2nd Congressional District and has received support from the fiscally conservative Club for Growth.
The first Democrat to jump into the race following Manchin’s departure was 32-year-old Zachary Shrewsbury, a native West Virginian and Marine Corps veteran. Two other Democrats — Don Blankenship and Glenn Elliott — are also running.
Manchin announced in November he would not be seeking re-election to his post in the upper chamber, saying in a video posted to X he believes he “accomplished what I set out to do for West Virginia” during his tenure in the Senate. Manchin, who previously served as governor of the state, was first elected to the Senate to represent West Virginia in a 2010 special election.
The state’s primary election is slated to take place May 14.
Rep. Alex Mooney, R-W.Va., left, and Republican West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, right. (Getty/AP Photo/Chris Jackson)
Wisconsin
In Wisconsin, incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisc., is looking to retain her post in the upper chamber and clinch a third term in office.
Baldwin, who announced her candidacy in the race last April, has represented the Badger State in the Senate since 2013. She previously served in the Wisconsin State Assembly and represented the state’s 2nd Congressional District in the House from 1999 to 2013.
Running unopposed, Baldwin has received strong support from her party on a state and national level. However, Republicans are eager to make an attempt to win the seat this cycle.
GOP businessman and real estate mogul Eric Hovde launched his bid for the Senate in February and quickly became a target for Democrats as the party seeks to maintain control of the seat.
The Senate Majority PAC went up with a $2 million ad buy last week targeting Hovde as a “multi-millionaire California banker.” The ad attempted to portray Hovde as an “out-of-touch carpetbagger” whose interests don’t align with those of the Wisconsin constituency.
Recognizing the ad campaign, Mike Berg, the communications director for the NRSC, wrote on X: “How bad are @TammyBaldwin and @SenSchumer panicking about @EricHovde?”
Hovde previously ran in 2012 but lost in the GOP primary to former Gov. Tommy Thompson. Baldwin went on to win the general election that year.
Hovde formally launched his bid for the U.S. Senate in February. (Eric Hovde campaign)
Arizona
With Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s announcement that she won’t seek re-election, the spotlight for the Senate race in the battleground state of Arizona has shifted to two prominent candidates — Rep. Ruben Gallego, a Democrat who represents the state’s 3rd Congressional District, and Republican Kari Lake, who previously made a run for governor of the state in 2022.
It was reported earlier this year that Gallego, the top Democrat seeking the Senate seat, had raised $3.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Since launching his bid for the seat in January 2023, Gallego’s campaign reported raising $13 million earlier this year.
Lake, a former TV news anchor who has been endorsed by several leading Senate Republicans and Trump, instantly became the GOP frontrunner when she jumped into the race last October.
Politico reported in January that Lake had “raised $2 million in the roughly 11 weeks after she entered the race, but she quickly spent nearly half that haul,” leaving her with a “little over $1 million in the bank — and $308,000 in debt” to start 2024.
Prior to Lake entering the race, Mark Lamb, a Republican who serves as sheriff for Pinal County, filed paperwork to run for the seat last April. Seven other Republicans are also seeking their party’s nomination for the seat in the state’s July 30 primary election.
From left to right: Republican Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb; Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz.; Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz.; and former Republican Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake. (Getty Images)
Pennsylvania
The Keystone State, a perennial general election battleground, will likely live up to its reputation once again in 2024 as it holds what will arguably be one of the most competitive and expensive Senate races in the country.
Sen. Bob Casey, a Democrat who served a decade as the state’s auditor general and then treasurer before first winning election to the Senate in 2006, is seeking a fourth six-year term in office.
Casey, who is not expected to face any serious Democratic primary challenge, is the son of a popular former governor.
Republicans appear united behind Dave McCormick, who is making his second straight Senate run. McCormick narrowly lost the state’s 2022 GOP Senate primary election to Dr. Mehmet Oz, who went on to lose in the general election to former Braddock Mayor John Fetterman.
McCormick, a former hedge fund executive, West Point graduate, Gulf War combat veteran and Treasury Department official in former President George W. Bush’s administration, was endorsed by the Pennsylvania GOP in late September, soon after he entered the race.
Casey, a Democrat who first won election to the Senate in 2006, is seeking a fourth six-year term in office. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
Axios reported in January that McCormick had raised $5.4 million in his first quarter as a candidate. Casey’s campaign announced at the beginning of the year that it had raised more than $3.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.
McCormick had been courted by national and state Republicans to run, and his candidacy gives the GOP a high-profile candidate with the ability to finance his own race.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.
Politics
Trump ally diGenova tapped to lead DOJ probe into Brennan over Russia probe origins
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The Justice Department is turning to former Trump attorney Joeseph diGenova to spearhead a probe into ex-CIA Director John Brennan and others over the origins of the Trump-Russia investigation, as the department reshuffles leadership of the sprawling inquiry.
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche has tapped diGenova to serve as counsel overseeing the matter, according to a New York Times report, putting a former Trump attorney in a key role in the high-profile probe. A federal grand jury seated in Miami has been impaneled since late last year.
The Department of Justice did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.
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Joseph diGenova represented President Donald Trump during special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images)
DiGenova, a former U.S. attorney in Washington, D.C., who represented Trump during special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, has repeatedly accused Brennan of misconduct tied to the origins of the Russia probe—allegations that have not resulted in criminal charges.
He also said in a 2018 appearance on Fox News that Brennan colluded with the FBI and DOJ to frame Trump.
The origins of the Russia investigation have been the subject of ongoing scrutiny by Trump allies, who have argued that intelligence and law enforcement officials improperly launched the probe.
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Joseph diGenova has previously said that ex-CIA chief John Brennan colluded with the FBI and DOJ to frame Trump. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images)
DiGenova’s appointment follows the ouster of Maria Medetis Long, a national security prosecutor in the South Florida U.S. attorney’s office. She had been overseeing the inquiry, including a false statements probe related to Brennan and broader conspiracy-related investigations.
As the investigation continues, federal investigators have issued subpoenas seeking information related to intelligence assessments of Russian interference in the 2016 election.
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John Brennan has denied any wrongdoing related to the Russia investigation. (William B. Plowman/NBC/NBC NewsWire via Getty Images; Alex Wong/Getty Images)
Brennan has previously denied wrongdoing related to the Russia investigation and has defended the intelligence community’s assessment that Moscow interfered in the 2016 election.
Politics
Supreme Court weighs phone searches to find criminals amid complaints of ‘digital dragnets’
WASHINGTON — A man carrying a gun and a cellphone entered a federal credit union in a small town in central Virginia in May 2019 and demanded cash.
He left with $195,000 in a bag and no clue to his identity. But his smartphone was keeping track of him.
What happened next could yield a landmark ruling from the Supreme Court on the 4th Amendment and its restrictions against “unreasonable searches.” The court will hear arguments on the issue on April 27.
Typically, police use tips or leads to find suspects, then seek a search warrant from a judge to enter a house or other private area to seize the evidence that can prove a crime.
Civil libertarians say the new “digital dragnets” work in reverse.
“It’s grab the data and search first. Suspicion later. That’s opposite of how our system has worked, and it’s really dangerous,” said Jake Laperruque, an attorney for the Center for Democracy & Technology.
But these new data scans can be effective in finding criminals.
Lacking leads in the Virginia bank robbery, a police detective turned to what one judge in the case called a “groundbreaking investigative tool … enabling the relentless collection of eerily precise location data.”
Cellphones can be tracked through towers, and Google stored this location history data for hundreds of millions of users. The detective sent Google a demand for information known as a “geofence warrant,” referring to a virtual fence around a particular geographic area at a specific time.
The officer sought phones that were within 150 yards of the bank during the hour of the robbery. He used that data to locate Okello Chatrie, then obtained a search warrant of his home where the cash and the holdup notes were found.
Chatrie entered a conditional guilty plea, but the Supreme Court will hear his appeal next week.
The justices agreed to decide whether geofence warrants violate the 4th Amendment.
The outcome may go beyond location tracking. At issue more broadly is the legal status of the vast amount of privately stored data that can be easily scanned.
This may include words or phrases found in Google searches or in emails. For example, investigators may want to know who searched for a particular address in the weeks before an arson or a murder took place there or who searched for information on making a particular type of bomb.
Judges are deeply divided on how this fits with the 4th Amendment.
Two years ago, the conservative U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit in New Orleans ruled “geofence warrants are general warrants categorically prohibited by the 4th Amendment.”
Chief Justice John Roberts sided with the court’s liberals in a 4th Amendment privacy case in 2018.
(Alex Wong / Getty Images)
Historians of the 4th Amendment say the constitutional ban on “unreasonable searches and seizures” arose from the anger in the American colonies over British officers using general warrants to search homes and stores even when they had no reason to suspect any particular person of wrongdoing.
The National Assn. of Criminal Defense Lawyers relies on that contention in opposing geofence warrants.
Its lawyers argued the government obtained Chatrie’s “private location information … with an unconstitutional general warrant that compelled Google to conduct a fishing expedition through millions of Google accounts, without any basis for believing that any one of them would contain incriminating evidence.”
Meanwhile, the more liberal 4th Circuit in Virginia divided 7-7 to reject Chatrie’s appeal. Several judges explained the law was not clear, and the police officer had done nothing wrong.
“There was no search here,” Judge J. Harvie Wilkinson wrote in a concurring opinion that defended the use of this tracking data.
He pointed to Supreme Court rulings in the 1970s declaring that check records held by a bank or dialing records held by a phone company were not private and could be searched by investigators without a warrant.
Chatrie had agreed to having his location records held by Google. If financial records for several months are not private, the judge wrote, “surely this request for a two-hour snapshot of one’s public movements” is not private either.
Google changed its policy in 2023 and no longer stores location history data for all of its users. But cellphone carriers continue to receive warrants that seek tracking data.
Wilkinson, a prominent conservative from the Reagan era, also argued it would be a mistake for the courts to “frustrate law enforcement’s ability to keep pace with tech-savvy criminals” or cause “more cold cases to go unsolved. Think of a murder where the culprit leaves behind his encrypted phone and nothing else. No fingerprints, no witnesses, no murder weapon. But because the killer allowed Google to track his location, a geofence warrant can crack the case,” he wrote.
Judges in Los Angeles upheld the use of a geofence warrant to find and convict two men for a robbery and murder in a bank parking lot in Paramount.
The victim, Adbadalla Thabet, collected cash from gas stations in Downey, Bellflower, Compton and Lynwood early in the morning before driving to the bank.
After he was robbed and shot, a Los Angeles County sheriff’s detective found video surveillance that showed he had been followed by two cars whose license plates could not be seen.
The detective then sought a geofence warrant from a Superior Court judge that asked Google for location data for six designated spots on the morning of the murder.
That led to the identification of Daniel Meza and Walter Meneses, who pleaded guilty to the crimes. A California Court of Appeal rejected their 4th Amendment claim in 2023, even though the judges said they had legal doubts about the “novelty of the particular surveillance technique at issue.”
The Supreme Court has also been split on how to apply the 4th Amendment to new types of surveillance.
By a 5-4 vote, the court in 2018 ruled the FBI should have obtained a search warrant before it required a cellphone company to turn over 127 days of records for Timothy Carpenter, a suspect in a series of store robberies in Michigan.
The data confirmed Carpenter was nearby when four of the stores were robbed.
Chief Justice John G. Roberts, joined by four liberal justices, said this lengthy surveillance violated privacy rights protected by the 4th Amendment.
The “seismic shifts in technology” could permit total surveillance of the public, Roberts wrote, and “we decline to grant the state unrestricted access” to these databases.
But he described the Carpenter decision as “narrow” because it turned on the many weeks of surveillance data.
In dissent, four conservatives questioned how tracking someone’s driving violates their privacy. Surveillance cameras and license plate readers are commonly used by investigators and have rarely been challenged.
Solicitor Gen. D. John Sauer relies on that argument in his defense of Chatrie’s conviction. “An individual has no reasonable expectation of privacy in movements that anyone could see,” he wrote.
The justices will issue a decision by the end of June.
Politics
Trump renews bridge, power plant threat against Iran in push for deal, mocks ‘tough guy’ IRGC
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President Donald Trump mocked the Islamic Revolutionary Guard on Sunday morning for staking claim to a Strait of Hormuz “blockade” the U.S. military had already put in place.
“Iran recently announced that they were closing the Strait, which is strange, because our BLOCKADE has already closed it,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “They’re helping us without knowing, and they are the ones that lose with the closed passage, $500 Million Dollars a day! The United States loses nothing.
“In fact, many Ships are headed, right now, to the U.S., Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, to load up, compliments of the IRGC, always wanting to be ‘the tough guy!’”
Trump declared Saturday’s IRGC fire was “a total violation” of the ceasefire.
“Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz — A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement!” his post began.
“Many of them were aimed at a French Ship, and a Freighter from the United Kingdom. That wasn’t nice, was it? My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations.”
Trump remains hopeful about diplomacy, but is not ruling out a return to force, where he once warned about ending “civilation” in Iran as they know it.
“We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran,” Trump’s stern warning continued.
“NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!
“They’ll come down fast, they’ll come down easy and, if they don’t take the DEAL, it will be my Honor to do what has to be done, which should have been done to Iran, by other Presidents, for the last 47 years. IT’S TIME FOR THE IRAN KILLING MACHINE TO END!”
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