UPPER DARBY, Pennsylvania — Four years ago, Democrats made history when they took control of the county’s five-member council. It had been under Republican control since the Civil War, and Republicans had held all five seats just a few years earlier.

The local state representative, Mike Zabel, a Democrat, resigned after several women accused him of sexual harassment. This Tuesday, there will be a special election to fill the vacancy.

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It would take nothing short of a miracle for the Republican candidate, military veteran and behavioral therapist Katie Ford, to upend the local trend favoring Democrats. Ford is facing former state legislative aide Heather Boyd, a Democrat, and Libertarian Alfe Goodwin. Boyd has staked her race on the claim that a Ford win would end abortion rights. She has even released an attack ad featuring Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), warning that a Republican House majority would strip him of his veto power over anti-abortion legislation.

“Delaware County, I need your help in the special election for state representative,” Shapiro says in the ad. “The winner will determine which party controls the legislature. If Republican extremists win, they’ll take away my veto power by putting a constitutional amendment on the ballot to outlaw abortion, even in cases of rape and incest.”

G. Terry Madonna, political science professor at Millersville College in Lancaster, said while there are some Republican state House members who might want to do that, a lot more than that would have to happen even if the Republicans do gain the majority.

“It would be very difficult to get a constitution measure through both chambers in the Pennsylvania Senate and House,” he said. “It would also have to pass [both houses in multiple] years and then win a majority of votes, something that has met with difficulty in other states much redder than ours since Dobbs [v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization]. He is calculating that all of the Republicans would vote for that, and while you cannot rule that out, it would be difficult. So if the Democrats have control, it likely won’t happen.”

Democrats with knowledge of the spending in the race said that by Tuesday night, they will have invested $1.7 million to hold this seat and their slim majority in the state House. They reclaimed their state House majority after sweeping three special elections earlier this year. This special election has forced them to face yet another contest for control of the chamber Tuesday.

In response to the attack ad, Ford said in a debate hosted by WHTM-TV in Harrisburg last week that she is personally opposed to abortion but would not seek to change existing state law.

Ford has been largely talking about the rise in crime in this suburban Philadelphia enclave that for generations had been a powerhouse for Republicans but moved leftward after the election of Donald Trump. If she pulls off the impossible and wins, it would give state house Republicans a 102-101 majority and, more importantly, control of the chamber’s calendar.

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