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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world

US inflation rose to 2.6 per cent in October, as the Federal Reserve debates whether to cut interest rates at its last meeting before US president-elect Donald Trump takes office.

Wednesday’s figure from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was in line with economists’ expectations of a 2.6 per cent rate of growth and above September’s 2.4 per cent.

Once volatile food and energy prices were stripped out, “core” CPI held steady at 3.3 per cent on an annual basis. However, monthly core prices rose 0.3 per cent for a third month in a row, indicating that underlying inflation had yet to be fully tamed.

Alberto Musalem, president of the St Louis Fed, warned in a speech on Wednesday that the risk that inflation stalled out above 2 per cent or moved higher had risen, while the risk that the labour market deteriorates quickly had “possibly fallen”.

He reiterated his call for “gradual” reductions in interest rates.

Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, said Wednesday’s figures showed that “it’s difficult to wring out this last bit of inflation”, pointing to the “long tail” of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the persistence of price pressures in services.

The inflation data will be closely watched by the US central bank, which has already lowered its benchmark rate by 0.75 percentage points over two successive meetings to a new target range of 4.5-4.75 per cent.

Fed officials are trying to reach a “neutral” rate setting that keeps inflation in check without squashing demand, in a bid to pull off a so-called soft landing that would avoid a recession.

In the wake of Trump’s election, markets have been worried about a resurgence of inflation, driving up Treasury yields. They fell back slightly following Wednesday’s data release, as investors bet that the Fed was now more likely to cut interest rates next month.

Futures markets imply a roughly 80 per cent probability of a quarter-point cut in December, up from 60 per cent before the inflation figures.

Two-year Treasury yields, which track interest rate expectations, fell 0.07 percentage points to 4.27 per cent.

“I think we’re seeing some relief that [the inflation data] wasn’t an upside surprise and relief that it was just in line with expectations,” said House.

US stocks rose slightly, with the S&P 500 up 0.3 per cent in afternoon trading.

Most metrics suggest the US economy is in good health, with recent retail sales figures suggesting consumers are still spending. The labour market is also robust despite last month’s poor jobs report, which was dragged down by hurricanes and a strike at Boeing.

Inflation has fallen significantly from its peak of more than 9 per cent in 2022, but progress has slowed in recent months.

On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.3 per cent — in line with the past three reports. Half of that increase stemmed from a 0.4 per cent increase in the index tracking housing-related costs, the BLS said on Wednesday.

Energy prices were flat for the month, following a 1.9 per cent decline in September. Further increases in airline fares were offset by declines in prices for clothes and furniture.

At a press conference last week, following the Fed’s latest quarter-point rate cut, chair Jay Powell said he expected inflation to “come down on a bumpy path over the next couple of years” before settling near the central bank’s 2 per cent target.

Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed president, told Bloomberg on Wednesday that he was confident “inflation is headed [in] the right direction”.

But the path could become more volatile following Trump’s victory. The president-elect has pledged to enact sweeping tariffs, deport immigrants en masse and lower taxes. Economists warn that these policies could stoke price pressures while breeding uncertainty that could hamper growth.

Mark McCormick, head of forex and emerging markets strategy at TD Securities, said a second Trump presidency, combined with relatively strong recent economic data, made one “cautious to think that inflation can get back to 2 per cent at a comfortable rate any time soon”.

Powell last week said the Fed did not “speculate” about the timing or substance of any future policy changes. As such, he said, “in the near term, the election will have no effects on our policy decisions”.

Is intelligent alien life darting around in space — and even in the skies above us here on Earth? Has the U.S. government been covering up unexplained phenomena, and using secret extraterrestrial discoveries to boost its own technology?

Those are among the questions members of Congress are discussing on Wednesday in a joint hearing by subcommittees of the House Oversight Committee. Its title: “Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena: Exposing the Truth.”

Four experts are slated to testify in the public hearing, which began at 11:30 a.m. ET. You can watch the proceeding live.

The Pentagon issued a report in March saying that it has found no evidence of extraterrestrial spacecraft.

Extraordinary moments unfolded in a similar hearing last year, most notably when retired Maj. David Grusch, formerly part of the Pentagon’s UAP Task Force, alleged that the U.S. government has recovered nonhuman “biologics” from crash sites and has long operated a secret reverse-engineering program to glean advances from recovered vessels.

Grusch isn’t among the witnesses for the 2024 hearing. Instead, those testifying include:

Tim Gallaudet, retired rear admiral, U.S. Navy; CEO of Ocean STL Consulting, LLC

“Confirmation that UAPs are interacting with humanity came for me in January 2015,” Gallaudet said in his written testimony.

He describes being part of a pre-deployment naval exercise off the U.S. East Coast that culminated in the famous “Go Fast” video, in which a Navy F/A-18 jet’s sensors recorded “an unidentified object exhibiting flight and structural characteristics unlike anything in our arsenal.”

He was among a group of commanders involved in the exercise who received an email containing the video, which was sent by the operations officer of Fleet Forces Command, Gallaudet said.

“The very next day, the email disappeared from my account and those of the other recipients without explanation,” he said.

Luis Elizondo, author and former Department of Defense official

Elizondo’s testimony is brief and sure to raise scrutiny, alleging that a secretive arms race is playing out on the global stage.

“Let me be clear: UAP are real,” he writes. “Advanced technologies not made by our Government — or any other government — are monitoring sensitive military installations around the globe. Furthermore, the U.S. is in possession of UAP technologies, as are some of our adversaries.”

Elizondo is a former intelligence officer who later “managed a highly sensitive Special Access Program on behalf of the White House and the National Security Council,” according to his official bio.

“By 2012, [Elizondo] was the senior ranking person of the DOD’s Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program, a secretive Pentagon unit that studied unidentified anomalous phenomena,” his bio states, adding that he resigned in 2017.

Michael Gold, former NASA associate administrator of space policy and partnerships; member of NASA UAP Independent Study Team

Gold’s testimony stresses the need for government agencies and academics to “overcome the pernicious stigma that continues to impede scientific dialogue and open discussions” about unexplained phenomena.

“As the saying goes, the truth is out there,” Gold said, “we just need to be bold enough and brave enough to face it.”

Michael Shellenberger, founder of Public, a news outlet on the Substack platform

Shellenberger’s testimony runs to some 214 pages, including a lengthy timeline of UAP reports from 1947 to 2023.

Shellenberger presses the White House and Congress to act, calling for the adoption of UAP transparency legislation and cutting funds for any related programs that aren’t disclosed to lawmakers.

“UAP transparency is bi-partisan and critical to our national security,” his written testimony states.

Reports of UFOs and UAPs are now more centralized

In 1977, President Carter asked NASA to look into resuming UFO investigations, but the agency and the Air Force believed “nothing would be gained by further investigation.”

But in recent years, there have been increased efforts to compile and centralize the reporting of unexplained phenomena.

In July 2022, the U.S. government established the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office, or AARO, to standardize reporting methods and data collection. It collects UAP reports from the military and from the Federal Aviation Administration including sightings reported by civilian pilots to air traffic control. The agency doesn’t offer a way for the general public to file a UAP report. It does accept “reports from current or former U.S. Government employees, service members, or contractor personnel with direct knowledge of U.S. Government programs or activities related to UAP dating back to 1945.”

The agency adds that potential filers should not submit “any information that is potentially CLASSIFIED, or unclassified information that is not publicly releasable (e.g. subject to export control regulations).”

Many historical records are also available

Because of intense public interest, a number of records related to UFO studies are available online, including a “case files” folder related to UAPs on the U.S. Navy’s website. The FBI also has an online “vault” of records, covering the period from 1947 to 1954.

As for the famous Project Blue Book run by the U.S. Air Force from 1947 through 1969, documents related to the project are now kept by the National Archives, which holds 37 cubic feet of case files, along with at least 5 other cubic feet of records.

The bulk of the Blue Book investigations into 12,618 reported sightings were resolved, or explained, — but 701 remained “Unidentified,” the Air Force has said. The service said that none of the incidents constituted a security threat or indicated abilities beyond modern science. It added, “There was no evidence indicating that sightings categorized as ‘unidentified’ were extraterrestrial vehicles.”