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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota's special state House election

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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota's special state House election


WASHINGTON (AP) — Voters in Minnesota will choose a new representative Tuesday in a heavily Democratic state House district at the center of a post-Election Day drama to control the chamber.

The special election in House District 40B, in the northern St. Paul suburbs, was scheduled after a state court ruled that Democratic state Rep.-elect Curtis Johnson failed to meet residency requirements. Had Johnson taken office, the House would have started the 2025 session in a 67-67 tie that was expected to result in a power-sharing agreement between the two parties. Instead, Johnson’s decision not to appeal the court ruling gave House Republicans a temporary 67-66 advantage, which GOP leaders said gave them the “organizational majority” needed to control the House agenda. That prompted a Democratic boycott of the chamber.

The parties eventually reached a power-sharing agreement in February that assumes that Democrats will hold the district in Tuesday’s special election, restoring the 67-67 tie.

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The nominees for the seat are Democrat David Gottfried, an attorney, and Republican Paul Wikstrom, who also ran in 2024 and challenged Johnson’s residency status in court.

Johnson received 65% of the vote in November, compared with about 35% for Wikstrom. Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris carried the district with 68% of the vote, far better than the 51% she received statewide in her narrow win over Donald Trump, the Republican nominee.

The district is contained entirely within Ramsey County and includes the communities of Roseville and Shoreview. The eight precincts in Roseville made up nearly two-thirds of the district’s total vote in 2024 and posted higher vote percentages for Democratic candidates than the four precincts in Shoreview.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

There are no automatic recounts for state legislative races in Minnesota. A losing candidate may request a publicly funded recount if the margin is less than 0.5% of the total vote. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

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Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

Special election day

The special election for state House District 40B will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, which is 9 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in the House District 40B special election.

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Who gets to vote?

Any resident in state House District 40B who’s eligible to vote may participate in the special election. Minnesota allows voters to register at the polls.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

There were nearly 28,000 registered voters in House District 40B in both the 2024 and the 2022 general elections. Turnout was about 88% of registered voters in November 2024 and about 75% in November 2022. About 40% of ballots in 2024 were cast before Election Day, compared with about 27% in the 2022 midterm elections.

As of Thursday, more than 1,200 absentee ballots had been cast before the special election day, out of the approximately 3,400 requested.

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How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2024 presidential election, the AP first reported results in Ramsey County at 9:21 p.m. ET, or 21 minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 3:59 a.m. ET with about 99% of total votes counted.



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What are the fastest growing suburbs in the Twin Cities?

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What are the fastest growing suburbs in the Twin Cities?


The outer edges of the Twin Cities are booming with new places to live. 

So far this decade, the Twin Cities metro has, on average, added about 17,000 housing units per year, according to data from the Metropolitan Council. That includes homes, condos and apartments.

If you go by total housing units added, at the top of the list is Lakeville, a city growing so fast it put a pause on accepting new building permits. It has added 4,861 units from 2020 to 2025.

It’s followed in order by Woodbury (4,271 units), Maple Grove (3,599 units), Rosemount (3,186 units), Cottage Grove (2,279 units) and Blaine (2,677).

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“Those suburban edge communities have the land supply, and they have the infrastructure, and the connection to the metro,” Todd Graham, the Metropolitan Council’s principal forecaster, explained.

Space to add homes and infrastructure to handle the growth, all while staying within the metro bubble, is why developers are targeting those communities.

Cottage Grove has been adding about 287 homes a year this decade, but the mayor tells us of a new trend. 

“What’s changing is we are seeing additional multifamily apartments, higher density,” said Myron Bailey. “And then we’re putting a little bit more focus on some affordability options, especially around our business park.”

Which suburbs will grow the most in the future?

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If you go by population, Blaine and Maple Grove are forecasted to add about 20,000 people each from 2020 to 2050.

But if you go by percentage, two communities stand out. Corcoran in Hennepin County is expected to more than triple its population from 6,185 in 2020 to 19,600 in 2050. Carver in Carver County will see its population nearly triple from 5,241 in 2020 to 14,900 in 2050.

“We’re planning for it in the City of Carver. We have a long-term financial plan, we have a strategic plan, we have a comprehensive plan,” said Carver Mayor Courtney Johnson.

For example, new builds will push the limits of Carver’s current water treatment plant sometime in the next decade. 

“We are already thinking about where and how we’re going to build a new one to expand our capacity to bring fresh water into homes,” she said.

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Cottage Grove is building a second water tower right now on the west side of Highway 61, with plans for a third in the future. The city also has ample space to add homes and businesses.

Carver, meanwhile, has a smaller footprint, but it has an agreement in place with the neighboring Dahlgren township.

“When the landowners in that community are approached by developers for homes or commercial, they would then become part of the City of Carver, and then our boundary area would expand,” said Johnson.

Corcoran’s boundaries are the opposite of Carver’s. The town covers just under 36 square miles, making its land size similar to Maple Grove and Plymouth. Most of it still consists of farmland, prairies and wooded areas with home developments spread throughout.

A spokesperson for Corcoran told WCCO that new developments will be focused on the eastern third of the city, where growth can be best supported. That includes a new water tower and water treatment plant in the city’s northeast district.

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With more neighborhoods and people come a need for more entertainment, dining and shopping. Bailey said that’s becoming apparent in his community.

“The biggest complaint that I get is we don’t have enough restaurants or retail in our community. So, that’s been frankly one of the things that I’ve been trying to work on,” said Bailey.

One element of growth that is particularly challenging for smaller towns is maintaining their small-town image. Johnson said much of Carver’s development is happening on their western edge, where farmland is plentiful. The downtown area near the Minnesota River, however, will keep its historic charm. 

“We have one of the largest contiguous areas on the National Register of Historic Places. That’s never going to change, and we’re working really hard to maintain that area and promote our historic downtown,” she said.

Corcoran is taking a similar approach, balancing the need for growth while preserving the city’s existing character. Being a rural community is part of the city’s identity, meaning growth will have to happen in a “thoughtful and intentional way.”

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Closer to the heart of the metro, cities like Edina and Bloomington are projected to add thousands of households over the next several decades. There’s very little space to build new subdivisions and homes, but that’s not where the growth is expected to happen. 

“They identify that they have land supply available for transition to either high-density apartments or mixed-use neighborhoods,” said Graham. 

That includes rezoning land initially developed for commercial property to allow for apartments and condos. 

“In the Southdale area, you’ve seen that there are apartment buildings going up and there are plans for more of that,” Graham said.

To see how your community in the Twin Cities is projected to grow by the year 2050, click here.

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Several vehicles damages by large rocks, oil thrown off I-35 bridge near Rush City, sheriff says

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Several vehicles damages by large rocks, oil thrown off I-35 bridge near Rush City, sheriff says



Law enforcement in an east-central Minnesota community is asking for the public’s help to find those responsible for throwing large rocks and vehicle oil off an Interstate 35 overpass.

The Chisago County Sheriff’s Office said there have been multiple reports in the past week of vehicles being struck by objects dropped from the bridge by 530th Street near Rush City, about 60 miles northeast of the Twin Cities metro area.

Law enforcement search the area near Interstate 35 and 530th Street near Rush City, Minnesota, on May 3, 2026.

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MnDOT


On Sunday night just after 10 p.m., authorities say someone “threw numerous large rocks and a significant amount of oil onto passing vehicles and the roadway itself,” resulting in “multiple vehicles being damaged.”

The sheriff’s office says the Minnesota State Patrol is assisting in the investigation, and anyone with information is asked to call 651-257-4100. 

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Colorado Avalanche top Minnesota Wild in high-scoring opener

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Colorado Avalanche top Minnesota Wild in high-scoring opener


In just the 10th playoff game in NHL history with at least 15 combined goals, the Colorado Avalanche overcame blowing a three-goal lead to defeat the Minnesota Wild 9-6 in Denver Sunday night in a wacky Game 1 of this Western Conference semifinal series.



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