Finance
Warning from S&P that European financial markets are too fragmented
Although growth in the Eurozone is back, geopolitical risks posed by the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East remain, along with tighter financial conditions and the reshaping of the political landscape across Europe.
S&P Global released its Eurozone economic outlook for Q3 2024 on Monday morning, highlighting that growth in the Eurozone has returned mainly due to a fall in energy and commodities prices.
This is likely to allow gross domestic product (GDP) growth to increase from 0.7% this year to 1.4% in 2025, a slight rise from the 1.3% predicted by S&P Global in March. Eurozone inflation is also expected to come back to the European Central Bank (ECB)’s 2% target by mid-2025, if present conditions remain more or less constant.
Productivity bouncing back, wages growing at a slower pace and profit margins stabilising should also contribute significantly to cooling inflation. It’s expected to average 2.2% next year, coming down from around 2.4% this year.
The Eurozone economy has also mostly achieved a soft landing because last winter was milder-than-expected resulting in a knock-on effect on key sectors such as construction. S&P also expects consumer spending to bounce back in the latter half of the year, as retail energy prices abate further, benefiting consumers directly.
However, the report also highlights that the risks of higher inflation, tighter financial conditions and lagging growth have increased since March 2024.
The report also says, “The geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine remain the main risks weighing on our immediate economic outlook. That aside, other pockets of risks have intensified in recent months. These concern the decoupling of monetary policies on both sides of the Atlantic, political uncertainty in Europe and the worsening of Europe’s economic relations with China.”
What are some of the risks for Q3 2024?
Political instability also remains a concern, especially in the wake of the recent EU elections. Regarding this, S&P Global’s chief EMEA economist, Sylvain Broyer told Euronews, “We can definitely see some political uncertainty extending more from the national consequences of the European Parliament elections, rather than the elections themselves, with the French snap elections being at the top of everyone’s minds.
“They are a source of uncertainty and that can definitely undermine confidence and then make the recovery in investments that we expect in 2025 more fragile.”
Another major risk that could be seen in the next few months is the possibility of escalating EU-China tensions, sparked off mainly due to the EU considering tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, in order to protect and promote European automobiles.
The report says, “In terms of trade, China is Europe’s second most important partner after the US. It accounts for 10% of total EU exports and 22% of EU imports, around half of which are products that are critical to the European economy.”
Coming to how high these tensions could possibly go, Broyer said, “It is obvious that trade relationships between Europe and China are deteriorating and it is very likely that they will get even worse. I don’t think that this will escalate to a full-blown trade war. I also don’t expect the EU-China trade relations to worsen as much as the US-China trade relations.
This is because the European economy and the Chinese economy are highly interdependent and the respective supply chains are much more intertwined than China is with the US supply chain. For instance, Europe is definitely reliant on China for the import of critical products, such as solar panels, necessary for the green transition, but China is also very dependent on European technology, not just for cars, but also for other transport equipment and electronics.
Almost 15% of the value added by European companies to electronics is exported to China, so that shows the degree of interconnectedness.”
There has also been an increasing risk of more European companies leaving the continent’s biggest stock exchanges in order to list elsewhere, in the US or in Asia.
“This is definitely a sign that European financial markets are too fragmented, too national, too expensive for issuers and for retail investors. To cut a long story short, Europe needs to move forward on the Capital Markets Union, and that is definitely a top priority for the next commission”, says Broyer.
Similarly, he also believes that streamlining financial and other regulations is key, to make sure that European companies are actually supported and empowered to meet the green transition goals.
Coming to what the EU can do to attract more investment in the continent, as well as retain companies wishing to leave for the US and other markets, Broyer emphasises that this is not just a case of Europe wanting to win over external competition. It is also about the continent returning to its own previous higher productivity levels, seen in the last few years.
There could also be a few challenges for the ECB to continue on its rate-cutting path in the near future, according to Broyer.
“The needle of the ECB is inflation and the central bank needs to see more progress on wage growth and the most domestic parts of core inflation, in the services prices. Another element which is becoming more and more obvious is the Fed. The longer the Fed waits and doesn’t deliver much guidance on when and by how much it will start cutting rates, the more it is a problem for the ECB to cut rates further.”
Broyer highlights that this decoupling in monetary policy between the ECB and the US Federal Reserve became increasingly obvious in the first three months of the year.
“European investors have already shifted $50 billion into the US treasury market and probably, it will accelerate in the second and third quarter, so that’s definitely one limitation for the ECB, even if this issue of decoupling monetary policy is a smaller one for central banks generally,” he said.
Why is Spain expected to see strong growth this year?
The Spanish economy is expected to grow more than Germany in Q3, for a variety of reasons. The report emphasises: “Lower energy costs helped the German economy to emerge from recession in the first quarter of 2024, thanks to a recovery in production in energy-intensive sectors such as the chemicals industry. However, the German economy still lags other large European economies in terms of growth.
“Spain, noticeably, continues to beat expectations, with GDP growth accelerating for the third consecutive quarter to 0.7% quarter-on-quarter. The post-pandemic normalisation of tourism is not the only reason for this. Industrial production is continuously expanding in Spain. Last year, consumer spending was the main driver of growth, adding one percentage point of a 2.5 percentage-point increase in Spain’s GDP.
“Second-round effects on core inflation have also been more muted in Spain than in many other countries. Stronger employment growth, stimulated by labour market reforms aimed at replacing limited-term employment contracts with open-ended ones, is another explanation. The dynamism in employment does not hinder productivity growth, in contrast to the other three major economies of the Eurozone, Germany, France and Italy.”
Finance
There’s one critical part of employee wellbeing that bosses are forgetting
The cost of living crisis is weighing on employees. And as companies roll out more unique benefit offerings designed to support staffers, they should spend some time thinking about the financial benefits that workers actually want.
Two out of three U.S. employees ranked financial well-being as the top area within well-being overall in which they want support from their bosses over the next three years, according to a new report from Willis Towers Watson (WTW), an insurance services company. That beat out all other well-being subcategories, including a supportive company culture, mental, emotional, and physical health benefits, and workplace connections.
About 88% of workers are worried about covering their living costs, with 73% concerned about paying for food, 72% distressed about healthcare, 69% fretting over housing, and 66% troubled over transportation, according to the report. Around one in five American employees expect their financial situation to get worse over the next year.
In the past, retirement benefits were the main financial perk that employers would offer to their workers, Mark Smrecek, financial well-being market leader at WTW, tells Fortune. But as costs rise and workplace expectations shift, there’s been an increased emphasis on other meaningful employee benefits.
“As we look at broader lifestyle needs and concerns, the inventory on the employer side is far less equipped to serve its employee base,” he says.
Employers also seem unclear about how much workers actually prize financial well-being benefits. While 66% of U.S. workers want their employer to help them with their financial wellness over the next three years, only 23% of bosses prioritized financial wellness as an aspect of their well-being program.
When it comes to the kind of support they would like to see from employers, around 47% of U.S. workers say they want help growing their savings and wealth, according to the report. That’s followed by 35% who want help getting the most out of the benefits they already have, 33% who would like access to money in an emergency, and 21% want help managing debt. Around 21% want financial insurance, and 11% want help managing student loans.
Smrecek says that growing savings and wealth, as well as getting the most out of benefits, are two relatively traditional requests that employers are comfortable with. But others are more outside their wheelhouse.
“Providing access to money in emergencies and helping manage employee debt are two that are far more emerging from an employee demand point of view,” he says.
Smrecek adds that in addition to fulfilling workers’ specific financial benefit demands, employers need to do three things to best support staffers. He recommends bosses provide solutions that are relevant and accessible to their workforce, like financial literacy coaching and direct access to liquidity. Employers should also supplement those solutions with other less monetary-focused programs like affordable and effective healthcare plans. And companies should be proactive about connecting employees with these benefits.
“As employers look to really address the core need of the employee, how that relates to their business, and how they create value from their benefits, those aspects will drive a lot of the results that they’re looking for,” he says.
Emma Burleigh
emma.burleigh@fortune.com
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Finance
Philippine finance app allows transfers from US banks to GCash accounts
[The content of this article has been produced by our advertising partner.]
GCash, the Philippines’ leading finance app and largest cashless ecosystem, brought the spirit of Filipino independence to overseas communities this month. From the vibrant streets of New York City to the sun-kissed shores of California and the cosmopolitan hub of Dubai, GCash connected with Filipino communities to celebrate a mutual heritage and foster stronger ties with the Philippines.
GCash took part in Philippine Independence Day celebrations in New York City, California and Dubai, where it shared important new developments that aim to make digital financial services more accessible and efficient for Filipinos living and working outside their home country.
“At GCash, when we say that ‘finance for all’ is our vision, it means we are driven to go beyond the Philippines and reach as many Filipinos as we can around the globe,” says Paul Albano, general manager, GCash International. “We are honoured to join our community in this distinctly Filipino celebration, and we’re eager to share all the ways GCash has been continuously innovating and enhancing our services to meet the needs of our kababayan [fellow Filipinos] overseas.”
As GCash continues to expand its reach, Filipinos worldwide can look forward to more responsive services, greater financial empowerment and connectivity – bridging the gap between continents and reinforcing the bonds of community and culture.
Coast-to-coast celebrations
This year’s Philippine Independence Day celebrations in the US – marking 126 years of liberation – included a June 2 parade in New York City – the largest outside the Philippines. The Philippine Independence Day Council Inc. (PIDCI), a non-profit umbrella organisation of the National Federation of Filipino-American Associations up and down the US East Coast, hosted the event. Now in its 34th year, the parade has grown to become an annual celebration of Filipino culture and a display of national pride, strengthening familial and community ties.
At a booth set up during a street fair in New York City celebrating independence, GCash showcased its partnerships with financial institutions such as Meridian, an instant payment technology company headquartered in New York. The collaboration effectively synergises US-based financial services and the mobile wallets that have become part of daily life across the Philippines.
On June 8, over on the US West Coast, the city of Carson, California held a day of festivities for its own Philippine Independence Day celebrations. The community event, held at Veterans Park, featured food booths, a parade and cultural presentations – all showcasing Filipino culture, as well as offering individuals the opportunity to come together with family and friends.
GCash also set up booths to share the latest updates about its financial services, including its international expansion and its position as a seamless digital financial solution for Filipinos overseas. The app is now available for download in the US using a US mobile phone number. Cashing in and sending money have been made easier and more convenient through direct cash-ins.
Collaboration enables international transfers
GCash’s partnership with Meridian has enabled the direct in-app transfer of American-based user funds from more than 12,000 banks to GCash accounts. Upon cash-ins, which come with a US$1 fee per transaction, the service automatically converts dollar amounts into Philippine pesos, with competitive foreign exchange rates.
“At GCash, we want to help with the most important thing for our countrymen abroad: how they can care for their families and maintain connections with their loved ones despite the distance,” Albano says. “With GCash’s international expansion, this is exactly what we are doing. We’re making it possible for Filipinos overseas to take better control of their finances, and sending money to the Philippines is more convenient with our competitive rates.”
Celebrating Philippine-UAE partnerships
In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the Filipino community gathered at the Independence Day celebrations held at the Dubai World Trade Centre. The event, which featured cultural presentations and tributes to Filipino traditions, celebrated the continuous contributions of overseas Filipinos towards nation-building efforts between the two countries. It also honoured 50 years of diplomatic relations between the UAE and the Philippines.
At the event’s bazaar, GCash showcased its global expansion efforts to Filipinos who have made a second home in the UAE, sharing its latest innovations that aim to empower members of the Filipino community working overseas by giving them more control of their finances via the app.
International expansion to reach millions of Filipinos overseas
GCash announced in March that it has expanded its international reach and fully launched its global push following approval from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, the central bank of the Philippines, in 14 territories. Users in the US, Canada, Italy, the UK, Australia, Japan, the UAE, Qatar, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Spain, Germany and Singapore can now use international mobile numbers to sign up for the GCash app. Approval for Kuwait and Saudi Arabia is expected to follow in the second half of this year.
With its expansion outside the Philippines, GCash is able to serve and empower more Filipinos, wherever they may be based. In addition to free real-time money transfers between GCash wallets for convenient access to funds, as well as the ability to buy prepaid credits for loved ones back home, GCash users abroad can now directly pay their bills, including utilities, tuition fees and government bills such as taxes, as well as making payments to more than 1,900 Philippine merchants.
To access GCash outside the Philippines, users with an active international SIM card can download the app from Google Play, App Store or Huawei AppGallery.
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