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Ranking upset chances for College Football Playoff underdogs: Will any road team win?

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Ranking upset chances for College Football Playoff underdogs: Will any road team win?

As underdog hunters, we have been excited to watch college football’s championship morph into a playoff system, because with seeds come officially designated Davids and Goliaths, and with brackets come chances for meaningful upsets.

Well, that was our theory, anyway. The way this inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff has panned out, Boise State and Arizona State — entertaining squads who were conference champions but are by no stretch statistically dominant teams — grabbed the No. 3 and 4 seeds and the byes that go with them. And the fifth through 12th playoff contestants are now lined up pretty accurately. In each of this weekend’s first-round matchups, sportsbooks are favoring the home teams by more than a touchdown, and we can understand why.

But we can still help you hunt for value in the CFP’s opening round.

From NCAA basketball to the Olympics to the NFL, we have found that playoff underdogs tend to have three traits in common: They are underrated, they play high-risk/high-reward styles and they’ve suffered from bad luck.

So, this is how we studied the first round of the CFP: We looked at the power ratings of every team according to four systems, all of which essentially adjust the components of wins and losses (such as scoring) for strength of schedule: ESPN’s SP+ rankings, the Massey Ratings, the Simple Rating System and Team Rankings’ Predictive Ratings. We calculated the gaps between each set of opponents and then applied our bracket-breaking criteria. These are the results, with games listed in order of their upset chances.

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No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State

Upset chance: 33.4 percent

While betting lines have made SMU a +260 underdog in this contest, implying a 27.8 percent chance of a win, we think the Mustangs have a one-in-three chance (33.4 percent) of pulling off an upset.

For one, we’ve put together a Variability Index that measures how widely a team’s performance, adjusted for opponents, swings from week to week. The Mustangs rank 105th in the FBS this year, meaning they have been highly inconsistent. That’s good for an underdog: the better you are at your best, the greater your chances of beating a superior foe (and in a win-or-go-home scenario, nobody really cares how bad you are at your worst).

It’s doubly good in this case because the main reason SMU’s strength has changed considerably from game to game is that the Mustangs kept improving. Predicted to finish seventh in their first season in the ACC, they instead clobbered their conference opponents by increasing margins from the beginning of October through the end of November.

Led by Kevin Jennings, a quarterback who’s both efficient (66 percent completion percentage, 8.9 yards per attempt) and mobile (29.2 rushing yards per game), SMU’s up-tempo offense has racked up 501 points this season, sixth-most in the country. The Mustangs’ defense is more uneven. Their outstanding front four smothers the run and gets to opposing QBs: SMU allows just 2.7 yards per rush and has totaled 40 sacks; both of those figures are third-best in the FBS. But while the Mustangs have three safeties whose Pro Football Focus coverage grades rank among the top 30 in the country, SMU has given up a whopping 3,025 passing yards (ranking 111th). Buy the Mustangs, and you’re betting their pass rush will boom before their zone defense goes bust — and so far, that’s been a good wager.

SMU is also better than the result of its last game, a loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. A sack, fumble return and penalty on a punt landed the Mustangs down by 14 before the game was five minutes old. Then they clawed all the way back, only for Clemson to beat them, 34-31, on a last-second 56-yard field goal. Chances are the Mustangs won’t dig themselves into that deep a hole again — another reason their odds against Abdul Carter & Co. are better than they look.

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No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame

Upset chance: 27.9 percent

Subjectively, the Hoosiers, who are likely the best team in the 125-year history of Indiana football, make a heck of an underdog. And we’ve sung the praises of their coach, their quarterbacks and their receivers. But they’re +230 at BetMGM, and we see that as a bit generous: It implies upset chances of 30.3 percent vs. odds we calculate at 27.9 percent.

Statistically, we have to ask how much air needs to be let out of the Hoosiers’ tires because of their mediocre schedule. And while we can’t precisely quantify the answer yet, it’s some version of a lot.” They’ve had a single game against a top-25 opponent all season — and Ohio State outgained Indiana by more than two-to-one, with Kurtis Rourke passing for just 68 yards en route to a 38-15 thrashing.

The Hoosiers aren’t simply an offensive juggernaut: They’ve allowed only 14.7 points per game (sixth in the FBS) while surrendering just 5.7 yards per passing attempt and a total of 10 passing touchdowns. But Notre Dame has given up a mere 13.6 points per game (ranking third), stifling opponents to 5.6 yards per attempt and nine passing TDs.

Bettors have taken a long time to appreciate Indiana, which has gone 9-3 against the spread this year, similar to the Fighting Irish, who are 9-2-1 ATS. The Hoosiers have been slightly lucky at converting points to wins, and Notre Dame has been slightly unlucky (as in two-points-away-from-being-undefeated unlucky).

One signal does favor the Hoosiers: Through December 16, 56 percent of the bets and 63 percent of the money wagered on this game have been on Indiana, according to the Action Network. But we can’t find much to trump the statistical evidence that there’s a difference of a bit more than a touchdown between these teams.

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No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State

Upset chance: 25 percent

Advanced ranking systems suggest there is a much larger gap in this game than a one-seed difference would imply. That’s particularly true in the Simple Rating System (SRS) ratings, which place the Buckeyes as the best of the eight teams playing first-round games and the Volunteers the worst. The three other systems are more generous to Tennessee, but our synergistic model still only gives the Vols a 25 percent chance of winning, compared to an implied 29.4 percent offered by the +240 moneyline at BetMGM.

However, there are reasons to believe the metrics are undervaluing Tennessee. That’s mostly due to the Vols’ defense. According to Sharp Football’s “Defensive Beta_Rank” advanced stats, Tennessee has the country’s eighth-best defense. The Vols only allowed two teams to score more than 19 points all season: Georgia (31) and Vanderbilt (23, seven of which came from a kickoff return on the opening play). They held Alabama to 17 points in a victory in October, and the Crimson Tide happen to rank ninth in Sharp’s offensive ratings, one spot ahead of Ohio State.

It’s also worth noting that Ohio State’s offense has sputtered at times against strong defenses. The Buckeyes only scored 20 points against Penn State’s 14th-ranked unit and infamously put up only 10 points against Michigan’s 19th-ranked defense. Of course, Ohio State scored 30-plus against top-25 defenses from Indiana (seventh), Oregon (17th) and Iowa (22nd). So the Buckeyes certainly have explosive potential.

But this game has all the ingredients for a tight, physical, conservative battle. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 20s in Columbus Saturday night. Ohio State’s defense is even better than Tennessee’s (No. 2 in Sharp’s ratings). This matchup has the lowest total (46.5) of any first-round game, which means there’s more of a chance for a pesky underdog to hang around. Tennessee has been consistent (30th in our variability rankings) and right in the middle of the pack in luck ratings, so even if that doesn’t ultimately lead to a Tennessee outright win, that game script could favor the Vols +7.5, as well as the under.

No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas

Upset chance: 22.8 percent

You know, those folks in Vegas might have a pretty good idea of what they’re doing. Clemson is +325 on the moneyline, which means its implied odds to win are 23.5 percent. That aligns with the chance our composite model gives the Tigers (22.8 percent).

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Unfortunately for the Tigers, neither their underdog traits nor Texas’ profile as a favorite does much to shift those odds. Clemson ranks in the mid-50s in the FBS in both variability and luck, so they haven’t really underperformed or shown a massive ceiling this season. And Texas is exactly what you want to see in a safe favorite: Not only are the Longhorns extremely consistent (seventh in the country in lowest variability), but they’ve also been unfortunate (82nd in luck). So they may be even better than their record indicates.

But instead of ending on some misbegotten crack about how Syracuse would make a more entertaining ACC entrant in the CFP than Clemson, let’s use this game to consider a truly amazing probability. If Texas gets by Clemson, we estimate there’s about an 85 percent chance the Longhorns would then defeat Arizona State. Which means the odds that Texas will make the semifinal of the Playoff are about two in three.

Now ask yourself: Does Oregon have a 65 percent chance to beat Ohio State?

The biggest lesson from how the CFP matchups are shaking out is that Texas’ No. 5 slot is the sweetest spot in the field. Even with the Ducks holding a bye in their beaks, at this moment, you’d rather be Texas than Oregon.

(Illustration by Will Tullos; photo of Kevin Jennings: Grant Halverson / Getty Images; photo of Kurtis Rourke: James Black / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; photo of Dylan Sampson: Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images)

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Cubs look to build on offensive breakout against struggling Blue Jays starter Patrick Corbin

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Cubs look to build on offensive breakout against struggling Blue Jays starter Patrick Corbin

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I’m glad we didn’t take the run line yesterday in the baseball game. We had the under eight for the game between the White Sox and Tigers, and it ended 4-3. The Tigers did pull off the win, but as I mentioned, it wasn’t justified that Detroit should be -250, even with Tarik Skubal on the mound. Today, we shift to the Chicago National League team as the Cubs host the Blue Jays.

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The Toronto Blue Jays are a team I’ve written about probably more than most squads in the league. That’s not a complaint or anything, it just happens that I see a lot of value in their games. Most of that is because when they are favorites, they aren’t big favorites given their 37-39 record and rash of injuries to their pitching staff. When they are dogs, they are usually pretty small pups, offering little value, but that means the opposing favorite isn’t too high of a price.

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Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the eighth inning during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on Saturday, May 30, 2026 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Ali Overstreet/MLB Photos via Getty Images) (Ali Overstreet/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

The Jays were blitzed by the Cubs yesterday, and they will need a strong start today from Patrick Corbin. The once highly touted hurler is just 2-3 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. He had a decent year with the Rangers, but seems to be struggling again, as he did in his time with the Nationals. Corbin is a little more reliable on the road, given that he has pitched 10 more innings and has allowed three fewer runs on the road than at home, leading to a 3.57 ERA. He hasn’t given the Blue Jays much lately, going just 11.2 innings in three starts and allowing 11 runs on 17 hits. Cubs hitters are very strong against him, batting .316 against him.

The Cubs are one of the more frustrating teams to watch this season. Perhaps that is me just saying that as a fan of the team, but they’ve had two 10-game winning streaks, and also a losing streak of 10 games. Since May 9, the team has gone 13-24. Sure, some of that can be attributed to injuries to their pitching staff — they have only two healthy starters from the beginning of the year. But, most of this needs to be placed on the hitting of the club. Nico Hoerner is batting .238, Ian Happ is at .228, and Dansby Swanson is a pathetic .177.

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Toronto Blue Jays’ Ernie Clement hits a three-run home run during the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles in Toronto on June 6, 2026. (Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press)

Still, the Cubs broke out the bats yesterday, and Pete Crow-Armstrong looks like the five-tool player from the first half of last season. If they can get some pitching, maybe they will be the dominant team we saw earlier this year. Today’s starter is Colin Rea, who has not been very good this month. He has made three starts, allowed 19 hits, and 13 earned runs over 14.2 innings pitched. He has, however, been much better at home with a 3.03 ERA in five starts (six appearances). Blue Jays hitters haven’t seen much of him, but are hitting .176 against Rea in 17 at-bats.

There is a clear player prop to play in this one. However, the bad news is that he is not on the list of options, so you might need to request or find him in a different book other than DraftKings. Michael Conforto is 12-for-36 against Corbin with seven extra-base hits, including five homers. I’d play him at 2+ total bases and at one homer as long as you can get +200 or better for the bases, and +700 for the homer prop.

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Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs reacts after getting hit by a pitch in the eighth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field on May 17, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Michael Hirschuber/Getty Images)

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If you can’t find it, or they never post it (but I have to imagine they will give options once he is added to the lineup, and he absolutely should be, given his history), I still have a play. I’m taking the Cubs at -130 here. Rea isn’t the most reliable, but he should at least be decent here, and the Cubs will have the fresher bullpen. Give me the Cubs to win this one.

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For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024 

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Dodgers’ walk-off stuns Orioles as Dalton Rushing helps cap wild comeback

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Dodgers’ walk-off stuns Orioles as Dalton Rushing helps cap wild comeback

Dalton Rushing was frustrated. He just chased a slider in the dirt — again. And this time, the game was on the line. The Dodgers were down to their last out. He was down to his last strike.

So he took a moment, took a breath, and looked to the Dodgers dugout.

The first person he spotted was Mookie Betts, who had just cut the Orioles’ lead to a run with a solo homer. Betts was locked in with Rushing, brimming with confidence, cheering him on.

“For a guy like that, a guy that’s lived in that moment, he’s succeeded in that moment, he’s failed in that moment, he knows what it feels like, it’s pretty special,” Rushing recounted.

Rushing’s eyes traveled along the railing, noting his teammates all on the top step, all relying on him.

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He dug into the box, expecting the slider that Baltimore’s Ryan Helsley threw next — it was high, for a ball. Then Rushing got a fastball he could drive. And he did not miss.

The next moments in the Dodgers’ 6-5 walk-off win Friday were chaos.

Rushing lined a tying single into right field, giving Alex Call time to score from second. Call slid across the plate as the throw from Orioles right fielder Tyler O’Neill took for a long hop to catcher Samuel Basallo.

Basallo misjudged it, taking an unhurried shuffle up the line, before the ball glanced off his glove and rolled toward the Dodgers dugout.

Third base coach Dino Ebel waved home Ryan Ward, who scored standing up.

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Manager Dave Roberts, who looked down at his card when the throw was in the air, was already thinking through extra innings when the crowd erupted again. He heard field coordinator Bob Geren shouting something like, “The run counts.”

The Dodgers (49-27) ran onto the field and swarmed Rushing, who had just reached second. They jumped and yelled as the Dodgers Stadium lights flashed around them.

“It was good to get Freddie [Freeman] a night off for being the guy in the middle for a change, you know?” Rushing said with a grin. “No, it’s a great feeling, and I think it honestly just feels great that we won that baseball game.”

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For several innings, it looked like they wouldn’t.

Dalton Rushing celebrates after hitting a run-scoring single in the ninth inning.

Dalton Rushing celebrates after hitting a run-scoring single in the ninth to help lift the Dodgers to a 6-5 walk-off win over the Baltimore Orioles at Dodger Stadium.

(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)

The Dodgers had jumped out to an early 3-0 lead, on a two-run single from Max Muncy in the first inning and an RBI double from Andy Pages in the second. Then their scoring dried up.

Rushing was having as frustrating of a night as anyone, with a line out and three strikeouts.

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His first strikeout was part of a brutal sequence. The Dodgers loaded the bases with no outs in the third. Then Ward, Rushing and Alex Freeland, all went down swinging.

Rushing struck out on a slider in the dirt. And Orioles starter Trey Gibson got him to bite on the same putaway pitch in the fifth.

Rushing’s reactions steadily grew more animated, on the field and in the dugout.

Mookie Betts celebrates as he runs the bases after hitting a solo home run in the ninth inning Friday against the Orioles.

Mookie Betts celebrates as he runs the bases after hitting a solo home run in the ninth inning Friday against the Orioles.

(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)

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Alex Freeland signals safe after sliding past Baltimore catcher Samuel Basallo to score on a double by Andy Pages.

Alex Freeland signals safe after sliding past Baltimore catcher Samuel Basallo to score on a double by Andy Pages in the second inning Friday.

(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)

“He plays with a fire under his ass,” Freeland said. “He gets after it. He expects nothing but the best for himself day in and day out, and that comes with it.”

Said Roberts: “After he … vents, he does a good job of collecting himself to get back into the next play, the next at-bat, catching.”

On Friday, he was catching Roki Sasaki, who faced just one batter over the minimum through five innings. But during the third time through the order, the Orioles finally figured him out and hit back-to-back home runs.

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With two outs and a runner on, Sasaki yanked a splitter to the inside edge of the strike zone to Gunnar Henderson, who lifted it over the wall in right field. Pete Alonso then homered to left-center field on an inside fastball about belt high to tie the score.

“I thought he threw the baseball really well,” Roberts said. “I liked the way he competed. The fastball command was good. He was fantastic tonight.”

The Orioles (35-42) pulled ahead against the Dodgers bullpen. Will Klein surrendered a seventh-inning single to Jackson that sent two baserunners, including one inherited from Dodgers left-hander Jack Dreyer, across the plate.

Kyle Hurt and Blake Treinen threw clean eighth and ninth innings.

Finally, in the bottom of the ninth, Betts ended the Dodgers’ scoring drought. Then Muncy — later replaced by the pinch-running Call — and Ward drew walks.

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With two outs, Rushing stepped up to the plate, fell behind in the count 0-2 and reset.

“I look in the dugout, and all those guys care about is that next pitch, and the next pitch after that, and the next pitch after that,” Rushing said. “They just want you to win one pitch at a time.”

So, that’s what he did.

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World Cup Red Cards: 2026 Has More Red Cards Than Each Of Last 2 World Cups

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World Cup Red Cards: 2026 Has More Red Cards Than Each Of Last 2 World Cups

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The referees have been active at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

It took only 27 games across seven days for officials to allocate more red cards than they did during the entire 2018 and 2022 FIFA World Cups. The record for red cards in a single World Cup stands at 28 in 2006. These moments led to penalty kicks, set pieces outside the box and offenses capitalizing on shorthanded opponents. 

FOX Sports rules analyst Mark Clattenburg weighed in on the increase in red cards.

“Players are well-behaved, but they’re just making mistakes in and around the penalty area, in maybe a panic,” Clattenburg said. “And not saying the players getting inside the penalty area and conceding the penalties are more than happy to commit a foul and commit a red card, knowing that they miss the next match, but now that they have 26 players on the roster, there are plenty of players to certainly cover [those] positions.”

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The record for red cards in a single World Cup is 28 in the 2006 edition of the tournament, and nine of those were straight red cards. 

  • 2026: 6 red cards (all 6 straight reds)
  • 2022: 4 red cards (1 straight red)
  • 2018: 4 red cards (2 straight reds)
  • 2014: 10 red cards (7 straight reds)
  • 2010: 17 red cards (9 straight reds)
  • 2006: 28 red cards (9 straight reds)

Here’s a look at every red card and the impact they’ve had on the 2026 FIFA World Cup. 

Miguel Almiron was sent off right before halftime in Paraguay’s match against Türkiye after a VAR check determined that he said something while covering his mouth to an opposing player. 

Assim MadiboQatar

Madibo made an ill-timed tackle in the midfield on Canada’s Ismaël Koné. Koné was ultimately stretchered off the pitch as Qatar was reduced to nine men. 

Homam AhmedQatar

With Canada taking an early 2-0 lead, Homam Ahmed’s desperate tackle on Tajon Buchanan just outside the box only made matters worse. Canada scored moments later against a 10-man Qatar side to increase the advantage to 3-0. 

Tarik MuharemovicBosnia and Herzegovina

Tarik Muharemović tackled Swiss striker Breel Embolo on the precipice of the 18-yard box, preventing a one-on-one between Embolo and the goalkeeper. Switzerland didn’t convert the ensuing set piece, but with Bosnia and Herzegovina down to 10 men, the Swiss went on to score three late goals and close out a 4-1 victory. 

Cesar MontesMexico

As tempers boiled in the opening match, Mexico made it a three-red-card affair. César Montes took down Khuliso Mudau in an attacking position in the second minute of injury time. South Africa couldn’t capitalize on the set piece, and the match ended with a 2-0 Mexico victory.

Themba ZwaneSouth Africa

Themba Zwane was sent off for making contact with Brian Gutiérrez in the head during a South African attack. He put his team in a stick situation, down to nine men. Zwane’s suspension was extended from the normal one game to three after FIFA ruled it fell under Article 14’s rule for violent contact. 

Sphephelo SitholeSouth Africa

In the 2026 FIFA World Cup opening match, Sithole took down Mexico’s Brian Gutierrez just outside the box, earning a red card as the last line of defense between Gutierrez and the goalkeeper. Sithole’s red card led to a free kick from a threatening position, but Mexico couldn’t convert. However, in the 67th minute, Mexico capitalized on the one-man advantage as Raúl Jiménez scored his first World Cup goal. 

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