Sports
Ranking upset chances for College Football Playoff underdogs: Will any road team win?
As underdog hunters, we have been excited to watch college football’s championship morph into a playoff system, because with seeds come officially designated Davids and Goliaths, and with brackets come chances for meaningful upsets.
Well, that was our theory, anyway. The way this inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff has panned out, Boise State and Arizona State — entertaining squads who were conference champions but are by no stretch statistically dominant teams — grabbed the No. 3 and 4 seeds and the byes that go with them. And the fifth through 12th playoff contestants are now lined up pretty accurately. In each of this weekend’s first-round matchups, sportsbooks are favoring the home teams by more than a touchdown, and we can understand why.
But we can still help you hunt for value in the CFP’s opening round.
From NCAA basketball to the Olympics to the NFL, we have found that playoff underdogs tend to have three traits in common: They are underrated, they play high-risk/high-reward styles and they’ve suffered from bad luck.
So, this is how we studied the first round of the CFP: We looked at the power ratings of every team according to four systems, all of which essentially adjust the components of wins and losses (such as scoring) for strength of schedule: ESPN’s SP+ rankings, the Massey Ratings, the Simple Rating System and Team Rankings’ Predictive Ratings. We calculated the gaps between each set of opponents and then applied our bracket-breaking criteria. These are the results, with games listed in order of their upset chances.
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State
Upset chance: 33.4 percent
While betting lines have made SMU a +260 underdog in this contest, implying a 27.8 percent chance of a win, we think the Mustangs have a one-in-three chance (33.4 percent) of pulling off an upset.
For one, we’ve put together a Variability Index that measures how widely a team’s performance, adjusted for opponents, swings from week to week. The Mustangs rank 105th in the FBS this year, meaning they have been highly inconsistent. That’s good for an underdog: the better you are at your best, the greater your chances of beating a superior foe (and in a win-or-go-home scenario, nobody really cares how bad you are at your worst).
It’s doubly good in this case because the main reason SMU’s strength has changed considerably from game to game is that the Mustangs kept improving. Predicted to finish seventh in their first season in the ACC, they instead clobbered their conference opponents by increasing margins from the beginning of October through the end of November.
Led by Kevin Jennings, a quarterback who’s both efficient (66 percent completion percentage, 8.9 yards per attempt) and mobile (29.2 rushing yards per game), SMU’s up-tempo offense has racked up 501 points this season, sixth-most in the country. The Mustangs’ defense is more uneven. Their outstanding front four smothers the run and gets to opposing QBs: SMU allows just 2.7 yards per rush and has totaled 40 sacks; both of those figures are third-best in the FBS. But while the Mustangs have three safeties whose Pro Football Focus coverage grades rank among the top 30 in the country, SMU has given up a whopping 3,025 passing yards (ranking 111th). Buy the Mustangs, and you’re betting their pass rush will boom before their zone defense goes bust — and so far, that’s been a good wager.
SMU is also better than the result of its last game, a loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. A sack, fumble return and penalty on a punt landed the Mustangs down by 14 before the game was five minutes old. Then they clawed all the way back, only for Clemson to beat them, 34-31, on a last-second 56-yard field goal. Chances are the Mustangs won’t dig themselves into that deep a hole again — another reason their odds against Abdul Carter & Co. are better than they look.
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame
Upset chance: 27.9 percent
Subjectively, the Hoosiers, who are likely the best team in the 125-year history of Indiana football, make a heck of an underdog. And we’ve sung the praises of their coach, their quarterbacks and their receivers. But they’re +230 at BetMGM, and we see that as a bit generous: It implies upset chances of 30.3 percent vs. odds we calculate at 27.9 percent.
Statistically, we have to ask how much air needs to be let out of the Hoosiers’ tires because of their mediocre schedule. And while we can’t precisely quantify the answer yet, it’s some version of “a lot.” They’ve had a single game against a top-25 opponent all season — and Ohio State outgained Indiana by more than two-to-one, with Kurtis Rourke passing for just 68 yards en route to a 38-15 thrashing.
The Hoosiers aren’t simply an offensive juggernaut: They’ve allowed only 14.7 points per game (sixth in the FBS) while surrendering just 5.7 yards per passing attempt and a total of 10 passing touchdowns. But Notre Dame has given up a mere 13.6 points per game (ranking third), stifling opponents to 5.6 yards per attempt and nine passing TDs.
Bettors have taken a long time to appreciate Indiana, which has gone 9-3 against the spread this year, similar to the Fighting Irish, who are 9-2-1 ATS. The Hoosiers have been slightly lucky at converting points to wins, and Notre Dame has been slightly unlucky (as in two-points-away-from-being-undefeated unlucky).
One signal does favor the Hoosiers: Through December 16, 56 percent of the bets and 63 percent of the money wagered on this game have been on Indiana, according to the Action Network. But we can’t find much to trump the statistical evidence that there’s a difference of a bit more than a touchdown between these teams.
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State
Upset chance: 25 percent
Advanced ranking systems suggest there is a much larger gap in this game than a one-seed difference would imply. That’s particularly true in the Simple Rating System (SRS) ratings, which place the Buckeyes as the best of the eight teams playing first-round games and the Volunteers the worst. The three other systems are more generous to Tennessee, but our synergistic model still only gives the Vols a 25 percent chance of winning, compared to an implied 29.4 percent offered by the +240 moneyline at BetMGM.
However, there are reasons to believe the metrics are undervaluing Tennessee. That’s mostly due to the Vols’ defense. According to Sharp Football’s “Defensive Beta_Rank” advanced stats, Tennessee has the country’s eighth-best defense. The Vols only allowed two teams to score more than 19 points all season: Georgia (31) and Vanderbilt (23, seven of which came from a kickoff return on the opening play). They held Alabama to 17 points in a victory in October, and the Crimson Tide happen to rank ninth in Sharp’s offensive ratings, one spot ahead of Ohio State.
It’s also worth noting that Ohio State’s offense has sputtered at times against strong defenses. The Buckeyes only scored 20 points against Penn State’s 14th-ranked unit and infamously put up only 10 points against Michigan’s 19th-ranked defense. Of course, Ohio State scored 30-plus against top-25 defenses from Indiana (seventh), Oregon (17th) and Iowa (22nd). So the Buckeyes certainly have explosive potential.
But this game has all the ingredients for a tight, physical, conservative battle. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 20s in Columbus Saturday night. Ohio State’s defense is even better than Tennessee’s (No. 2 in Sharp’s ratings). This matchup has the lowest total (46.5) of any first-round game, which means there’s more of a chance for a pesky underdog to hang around. Tennessee has been consistent (30th in our variability rankings) and right in the middle of the pack in luck ratings, so even if that doesn’t ultimately lead to a Tennessee outright win, that game script could favor the Vols +7.5, as well as the under.
No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas
Upset chance: 22.8 percent
You know, those folks in Vegas might have a pretty good idea of what they’re doing. Clemson is +325 on the moneyline, which means its implied odds to win are 23.5 percent. That aligns with the chance our composite model gives the Tigers (22.8 percent).
Unfortunately for the Tigers, neither their underdog traits nor Texas’ profile as a favorite does much to shift those odds. Clemson ranks in the mid-50s in the FBS in both variability and luck, so they haven’t really underperformed or shown a massive ceiling this season. And Texas is exactly what you want to see in a safe favorite: Not only are the Longhorns extremely consistent (seventh in the country in lowest variability), but they’ve also been unfortunate (82nd in luck). So they may be even better than their record indicates.
But instead of ending on some misbegotten crack about how Syracuse would make a more entertaining ACC entrant in the CFP than Clemson, let’s use this game to consider a truly amazing probability. If Texas gets by Clemson, we estimate there’s about an 85 percent chance the Longhorns would then defeat Arizona State. Which means the odds that Texas will make the semifinal of the Playoff are about two in three.
Now ask yourself: Does Oregon have a 65 percent chance to beat Ohio State?
The biggest lesson from how the CFP matchups are shaking out is that Texas’ No. 5 slot is the sweetest spot in the field. Even with the Ducks holding a bye in their beaks, at this moment, you’d rather be Texas than Oregon.
(Illustration by Will Tullos; photo of Kevin Jennings: Grant Halverson / Getty Images; photo of Kurtis Rourke: James Black / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; photo of Dylan Sampson: Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images)
Sports
Super Bowl champion Joe Theismann explains why Commanders are poised to bounce back from disappointing season
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Super Bowl champion Joe Theismann, who spent his entire career with the then-Washington Redskins, is excited for the Commanders this season despite an underwhelming season last year.
Last season, the Commanders went 5-12 after making the NFC Championship in 2024. Theismann, 76, said the team ran out of gas last season as they dealt with injuries.
“It was a lot of injuries in key places last year. The defense, I think, was very susceptible in certain areas,” Theismann told Fox News Digital in a recent interview. “With Bobby (Wagner) getting older now, obviously, we just sort of ran out of gas. 17 games is a lot of football games, right? I mean, that that’s a lot of wear and tear on your body. I don’t care how young you think you are, your body’s going to tell you you’re not that young.”
Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders looks on from the sidelines after leaving the game during the second half against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minn., on Dec. 7, 2025. (Ellen Schmidt/Getty Images)
The Commanders defense struggled last season, giving up 26.5 points per game, which was 27th in the NFL. The team addressed their porous defense in the NFL Draft, drafting Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles with the No. 7 overall pick.
“Our number one pick is going to be something special going forward,” Theismann said. “I think we added some really great pieces on defense.”
The Commanders invested heavily in their defense. Former Los Angeles Chargers pass rusher Odafe Oweh (four-year, $100 million), former Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Leo Chenal (three-year, $24.75 million), and former Houston Texans defensive tackle Tim Settle (three-year, $24 million) were among their key free agent additions.
Star wide receiver Terry McLaurin missed the majority of the Commanders’ offseason program due to a contract holdout, and Theismann pointed out he will be an active participant in this year’s program.
SUPER BOWL CHAMPION JOE THEISMANN WEIGHS IMPACT OF JAXSON DART-ABDUL CARTER TRUMP CONTROVERSY ON LOCKER ROOM
Ohio State Buckeyes linebacker Sonny Styles gets into position during the 2025 Cotton Bowl quarterfinal game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on Dec. 31, 2025. (Jerome Miron/Imagn Images)
The Commanders made a change at offensive coordinator after mutually agreeing to part ways with Kliff Kingsbury. The Commanders promoted David Blough to replace Kingsbury, and Theismann noted how the offense will be called differently.
“I think David Blough will call the games a little differently than Kliff did. A Little more play action, a little more under center. And this is what Jayden (Daniels) had a chance to work on while he was not participating in the games at the end of the season. So, he’s a little bit ahead of the curve when it comes to that as well,” Theismann said.
Daniels was limited to just seven games due to injury last season, giving him the opportunity to get a head start on a new system late in the season.
Theismann did note that while the Commanders got better, the rest of the NFC East got better as well.
“The division itself has improved. The Giants got better. I think the coaching change makes a difference. Jaxson Dart is coming into another year. Defensively, they really didn’t play to the talent that they have,” Theismann said. “The Cowboys added defensive talent. They needed some help there. The Eagles are the Eagles; they’re not going away. I mean, everybody is trying to bust on Jalen (Hurts) and all he does is show up and do the job and win football games.”
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Former player Joe Theismann speaks during the announcement of the Washington Football Team’s name change to the Washington Commanders at FedExField in Landover, Md., on Feb. 2, 2022. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Theismann played in the NFL for 12 seasons, spending his whole career with the then-Washington Redskins. He was named the league MVP in 1983 and made the Pro Bowl twice.
He led the Redskins to the Super Bowl in 1982, when they beat the Miami Dolphins 27-17 in Super Bowl XVII. In his career, Theismann completed 56.7% of his passes for 25,206 yards with 160 touchdowns and 138 interceptions.
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Theismann will be competing in the American Century Championship from July 10-12 at Edgewood Golf Course in Lake Tahoe. The tournament will be broadcast on NBC and Peacock.
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Sports
Q&A: As costs rise, AD Jennifer Cohen says USC is well-positioned amid college sports chaos
Jennifer Cohen has heard her peers this spring lament the precarious state of college football, with the College Football Playoff format in flux, the College Sports Commission under fire and the current model of college athletics hanging by a proverbial thread. As athletic director at USC, Cohen understands the reasons for their doom and gloom.
There’s little clarity about where things stand in college athletics right now, let alone where they’re going. Plus, it has never cost more to run an athletic department — or a football program, with the price tag of rosters exceeding $40 million this season — in part because of name, image and likeness rights.
“There’s no doubt that this last year’s been frustrating, and that’s because we tried to fly a plane and build a plane at the same time,” Cohen told The Times last week. “So it’s certainly not going swimmingly, right?”
Before discussing all that’s wrong with the current college sports landscape, Cohen wants to remind everyone that it hasn’t all been bad.
“It’s important to talk about what are the positives that came from what’s happened,” Cohen said.” And from my perspective, student athletes have benefited now more than ever, you know?”
At USC, Cohen has managed to steer the athletic department through the chaos. As costs have risen exponentially with the advent of revenue sharing, Cohen says department revenue at USC is up almost 60% over a three-year span, sponsorship values have doubled and USC donors have poured money into the Trojan Athletic Fund, which is up 707% since she started.
Jennifer Cohen, left, and university president Carol Folt, right, flash the “V for Victory” hand sign during a news conference in 2023 introducing Cohen as USC’s new athletic director.
(Ringo Chiu / For The Times)
And later this summer, USC will open a $200-million football facility — a rarity in an age when such spending has more often taken a backseat.
None of that is to say USC is immune to the coming financial crunch in college sports.
“We also have to manage expenses, and we’re trying to do that and still support what we think is part of our DNA, which is [keeping all] 23 programs,” Cohen said. “As you look at the financial benefits that football brings to this place, the more you’re gonna take those revenues from football and put it back into football and to football student athletes versus other programs, you’re gonna feel the pinch. And so we’ve tried to mitigate that with new strategies on revenue generation.”
But what about when football rosters costs balloon to $50 million … or $60 million? What about $100 million?
“Hopefully not,” Cohen said. “We’ve gotta match roster spends with revenues and, and, and, and how we run a business.”
“I don’t think there’s one simple answer to this, and I do think that we are at a point where we’ve got to figure out as an industry, how do we do this in a smart way and not just let our competitiveness get the best of us? But that’s hard when football winning is the only way that you pay your bills.”
The Times sat down with Cohen last week to discuss the state of affairs in college football and USC’s athletic department. The following conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
With college football in such an uncertain place, do you feel like there needs to be some form of outside intervention? Or some major governance change that would help solve these problems?
“I think at some point in time we’re gonna have to find something. I mean, obviously we’re a year in. So I think first we all need to look in the mirror — myself included, as a leader — and say, ‘What did we do in this new system that worked? And what have we done in this new system that doesn’t work? And the question becomes, ‘Can you get everybody across the Power Four [conferences] to do that exercise and be honest enough to find some sort of solutions together? Or do you need to start looking at other solutions? I, for one, fully believe in federal support. I understand why it’s needed. I’m somebody that spent a lot of time on that earlier in my career, and, you know, the patchwork situation of laws is not fair from a competitive standpoint. It’s also very confusing to student athletes and to their families and to our coaches. But I am absolutely not holding my breath for that.
Eric Musselman and athletic director Jennifer Cohen hold a jersey with Musselman’s name during his introductory news conference as the Trojans’ basketball coach in 2024.
(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times)
“The most important place where I’m spending my energy is figuring out how we are going to win in whatever environment that we’re dealt. Because I don’t have as much control in my current role to solve for all of those national issues. I am 24/7 thinking about how USC is going to compete in whatever environment we’re in. And I feel really confident that we will. But as somebody that loves college sports, I also think that we are gonna have to find a different alternative than how we’re operating right now to have a sustainable and durable model.”
USC seems to be in a really strong place with NIL, stronger certainly than when you were hired. How would you say that USC has gotten to that point?
“ When we got here, my mantra was if you’re not ahead, you’re gonna get behind. And so there were a lot of areas that we focused on to just try to improve and get ahead, and NIL was one of them. There’s a natural ability here to be really competitive in NIL — especially in the third-party space with brands. You know, we were just looking at some data the other day just in this new CSC-NIL Go model. Our brand deals are valued 2 1/2 times more than the national average, and I think that really speaks to both USC, the city of L.A., and obviously the quality of the student athletes that we have. And I think it’s just been a strategy of embracing the new era, recognizing that it’s really cool to be able to have student athletes benefit in that new era, and it’s important, and that you have to be competitive in that space.
“And so I think it was just a matter of having intentionality in a plan and getting all of our stakeholders aligned around that plan, and it was an urgent matter to keep trying to get ahead in that space. Because if we weren’t, other people were. That’s how we’ve been tackling it, and so we’re really proud of how robust the program is now. But we’re gonna have to keep getting better at it. We’re gonna have to keep evolving.”
The Big Ten has come out in favor of expanding the College Football Playoff to 24 teams. What are your thoughts on that?
“We’re unified as a league around 24, there’s no doubt about that. And obviously that’s gaining traction in some of the other conferences as well. And so where we’re unified, USC’s gonna support that. I think that there’s merits in the 24 model. I also think there’s plenty of fair questions around that. It has to make sense for everybody. So that’s kind of where we stand on it.
USC athletic direct Jennifer Cohen wears a headset with microphone as she’s interviewed before a football game in 2023.
(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
“I think personally speaking, I would have absolutely no problem staying at 12. I think we’ve experienced a lot of change in college sports and in college football. I think we need to understand how that change is impacting not just us, but our fans and others. And so if we end up at 12, I’m confident that we’re gonna find our way in that 12 every single year. And again, uh, that’s where my focus is. I mean, I am nonstop thinking about how USC athletics can compete in whatever model that we’re in, and I feel really good about the plans that we are developing and will continue to develop because we’re gonna have to keep changing to, to make sure that we’re competitive.
Being that it’s now Year 5, is it fair to say that the expectation is that Lincoln [Riley] needs to take USC to the Playoff this year?
“The expectation has always been the same. That’s the thing, that’s the reason why I came here, is that the standard is high. We do expect to make the playoff. We do expect to have a championship run. We do expect to be competing for championships every single year. I think that’s what’s awesome about USC, is that that’s what we all expect of it. And I know that I’m not the only one that expects that. I know our fans expect that. I know that he expects that. And so I really like this team. I really like the kids that we brought in. I love the returners. I love the leadership of this team.
“We’ve got some really outstanding older young men in this program that get it, that have been through a lot and really care about this place and this program. The young guys are awesome. They’re really challenging the older guys. So I feel really good about the talent level of this team, and I feel really good about what Lincoln’s done. I think with this staff, I think we have a highly competitive staff. I think we have a really experienced staff. And then you can’t dismiss what Chad’s accomplished. You know? I think that that’s been the benefit of bringing in not just Chad, but an entire front office staff, taking the pressure off of Lincoln, taking the pressure off of the other coaches so that they can be at their best. I mean, he’s been really energized about that and really focused on taking the strengths that he has. So yeah, the expectation, I mean, we haven’t been shy about that. We expect to win, and I, I feel confident that we’re going to.”
Sports
PSG Champions League victory causes chaos in Paris, with 45 arrested and fires set across city
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At least 45 people were arrested in Paris on Saturday after celebrations over Paris Saint-Germain’s Champions League victory descended into chaos, with fires set, businesses vandalized and crowds clashing with police.
Police detained dozens of people as crowds gathered across the French capital following PSG’s victory.
Large crowds gathered near the Arc de Triomphe after the match, with some fans setting off flares and blaring car horns, according to reports from The Associated Press.
Police worked to contain thousands of people gathered along the Champs-Élysées.
POLICE ARREST FIGHT SUSPECTS AT ISRAEL-FRANCE SOCCER GAME DAYS AFTER ATTACKS ON ISRAELI FANS IN AMSTERDAM
A car burns and fireworks explode as police watch PSG supporters celebrate in Paris, Saturday, May 30, 2026, after the Champions League final soccer match between Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal that’s being played in Budapest. (AP Photo/Thomas Padilla)
According to authorities, a group of individuals attempted to storm a police station in the French capital late Saturday.
The Paris police prefecture said some people vandalized shops, set fires and torched vehicles during the unrest.
A bakery and a restaurant were damaged during the disturbances, police said.
HUNDREDS OF MIGRANTS EVICTED FROM PARIS THEATER AFTER SQUATTING THERE FOR MONTHS
Paris St Germain fans celebrate winning the UEFA Champions League. (REUTERS/Abdul Saboor)
Authorities also said a crowd briefly blocked the main ring road surrounding the city before police dispersed the gathering.
One police officer was injured, according to police.
As of 10 p.m. local time, police had arrested at least 45 people.
Celebrations erupted across Paris after PSG defeated Arsenal in a dramatic Champions League final, securing one of the club’s biggest achievements on the European stage.
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A car burns as PSG supporters celebrate in Paris, Saturday, May 30, 2026 after the Champions League final soccer match between Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal. (AP Photo/Thomas Padilla)
Violent celebrations also followed PSG’s previous Champions League triumph. After the club won the title last year, 201 people were injured in Paris and more than 500 arrests were made across France.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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