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US elections, AI, private capital: What will shape finance this year?

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US elections, AI, private capital: What will shape finance this year?

US elections, AI, private capital: What will shape finance this year?

Leaders at EY, TP ICAP, UBS and more on how trends might play out in 2024

Monday, 8 January 2024 at 05:01

When ChatGPT burst into the public consciousness in early 2023, financial services firms initially reacted by banning their employees from using it.

A year later, many executives are heralding generative AI as transformative for their business. AI as a key theme for 2024 may seem obvious. But what are the other trends that will affect the industry this year?

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Finance

Investors Could Be Concerned With Big Technologies’ (LON:BIG) Returns On Capital

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Investors Could Be Concerned With Big Technologies’ (LON:BIG) Returns On Capital

Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? Amongst other things, we’ll want to see two things; firstly, a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an expansion in the company’s amount of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it’s a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. Although, when we looked at Big Technologies (LON:BIG), it didn’t seem to tick all of these boxes.

Our free stock report includes 2 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Big Technologies. Read for free now.

For those who don’t know, ROCE is a measure of a company’s yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. To calculate this metric for Big Technologies, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets – Current Liabilities)

0.09 = UK£12m ÷ (UK£144m – UK£8.5m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

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So, Big Technologies has an ROCE of 9.0%. On its own, that’s a low figure but it’s around the 11% average generated by the Electronic industry.

See our latest analysis for Big Technologies

AIM:BIG Return on Capital Employed April 17th 2025

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Big Technologies compares to its prior returns on capital, but there’s only so much you can tell from the past. If you’d like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Big Technologies for free.

When we looked at the ROCE trend at Big Technologies, we didn’t gain much confidence. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 12%, but since then they’ve fallen to 9.0%. Meanwhile, the business is utilizing more capital but this hasn’t moved the needle much in terms of sales in the past 12 months, so this could reflect longer term investments. It’s worth keeping an eye on the company’s earnings from here on to see if these investments do end up contributing to the bottom line.

On a side note, Big Technologies has done well to pay down its current liabilities to 5.9% of total assets. So we could link some of this to the decrease in ROCE. Effectively this means their suppliers or short-term creditors are funding less of the business, which reduces some elements of risk. Since the business is basically funding more of its operations with it’s own money, you could argue this has made the business less efficient at generating ROCE.

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Bringing it all together, while we’re somewhat encouraged by Big Technologies’ reinvestment in its own business, we’re aware that returns are shrinking. Moreover, since the stock has crumbled 75% over the last three years, it appears investors are expecting the worst. Therefore based on the analysis done in this article, we don’t think Big Technologies has the makings of a multi-bagger.

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Financial institutions' gender balance progress under threat, study shows

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Financial institutions' gender balance progress under threat, study shows
The rise in the number of women holding top jobs at leading financial institutions has slowed over the last year and further progress is under threat as the United States and other countries roll back diversity drives, a new report has shown.
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Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq decline, reversing earlier gains amid latest Trump tariff moves

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Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq decline, reversing earlier gains amid latest Trump tariff moves

Investors’ consensus view of the macroeconomy has flipped on its head in the past month.

In the latest Bank of America Fund Managers Survey released on Tuesday, 49% of respondents said they expect a “hard landing” for the global economy — where economic growth deteriorates before inflation fully retreats — in the next 12 months. Last month, just 11% of respondents had expected this outcome.

Conversely, a “soft landing” — where inflation falls to the Fed’s 2% target without the economy tipping into recession — is no longer the consensus. In the latest survey conducted from April 4 to April 10, just 37% of respondents said they expect a soft landing. This is down from 64% expecting a soft landing a month ago.

The shifts in sentiment reflect how economists have been discussing the potential impact of President Trump’s tariffs, with many expecting the new policies to boost inflation and slow economic growth. Some even believe the tariffs could push an already slowing US economy into recession later this year.

“The Fed had accomplished what many had thought was impossible,” BNP Paribas chief US economist James Egelhof told Yahoo Finance, pointing to a recent strong jobs report and inflation hitting its lowest level in four years. “It had brought us to the brink of a soft landing. Now, the tariffs change everything.”

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