Crypto
What is bitcoin halving, when will it happen and why can it cause the currency’s price to skyrocket?
Cryptocurrencies and precious mineral deposits seem to have little to do with each other. But these two distant worlds are closer than they appear in the cryptosphere, at least metaphorically. With bitcoin halving scheduled for the middle of this week, mentions of blockchain mining are proliferating, as is the role of miners in keeping the bitcoin ecosystem going. This “invisible” part, which makes it possible to issue new tokens, will halve its profits, which has happened three times before, in 2012, 2016 and 2020. This does not mean that the price of the cryptocurrency will fall in the same way: the market expects that, as supply is reduced, logically, demand will increase and so will its price, which has risen by 50% so far this year.
With the price of the main cryptocurrency already soaring above €65,000 ($69,150.25) and in full bloom thanks to the success of exchange-traded funds, here are some keys for better understanding this new milestone for a sector seeking to leave a long winter behind.
What is halving?
Halving is a consequence of the blockchain technology behind bitcoin. To create a new currency, the system requires computers, or miners, to verify transactions. These users receive benefits: a certain amount of digital coins. Thus, since 2020, participants in this activity have received 6.25 bitcoin for every 210,000 verified network blocks; from now, on they will receive half that: 3.125 BTC.
“It is a mechanism that tries to copy what happens with a single deposit of a precious mineral,” notes Mireya Fernandez, the head of the Bitpanda exchange for southern Europe. “At the beginning, it’s all confusion, so the first miners are paid better. Then, as time goes by, there is less and less ore available, less is mined and the product’s price can increase,” she notes.
Reducing the reward for miners is intrinsic to bitcoin’s supply and demand. Although bitcoin is digital money, it cannot be created infinitely, and verifiable scarcity is central to its value proposition, which makes it appealing in highly inflationary markets like Argentina and Nigeria. The cryptocurrency is designed for a finite number: at most there will be 21 million tokens.
Why is it important?
All the experts we consulted agree that the sector is heading for a moment of consolidation and maturation, driven by new investment products and the entry of large institutional players. “In particular, bitcoin is experiencing a new boom driven by regulatory and market access developments,” notes Guido Lonetti, product director at digital bank N26.
After a period defined by fraud cases and the falling prices of all digital currencies, this context of good news makes any news at all more worrying. As with any other investment asset, any news can generate a strong inflow or outflow of capital, but, in this case, bitcoin’s volatile nature only exacerbates this trend.
“It is a mistake to be too vigilant,” notes Jorge Soriano, the head of the Criptan platform. “The bitcoin issuance schedule is known from the beginning. The characteristics and properties of the currency go far beyond this one-off milestone,” he emphasizes.
How does it affect investors?
Historically, this milestone has served to generate buzz. Bitcoin investors tend to welcome this date with enthusiasm, which increases the conversation about it, as well as capital inflows into the crypto world. “The community experiences it like New Year’s Eve and expects changes in the price,” says Fernández, although he points out that the user already has gained experience over all these years. He says that it is a more mature community with more criteria and more capital.
However, Lonetti says, the sharp rise in expectations can also lead to more scams and frauds. “The enthusiasm for the world of cryptocurrencies is not lost on cybercriminals, who are always coming up with new ways to commit crimes. Common cryptocurrency-related fraud can range from pyramid schemes and fake websites to fake celebrity endorsements and inflating the price of an unknown cryptocurrency.” The organization recommends “being wary of supposed opportunities that guarantee profits, have excessive marketing, lack technical documentation and offer free money.”
What impact can it have on the price?
That is the real question the community is asking, as historical data indicate to expect a sharp rise. In 2012 and 2016, the halving led to a price increase of almost 10,000%. For example, before the halving that occurred in November 2012, the currency was trading slightly above $10. Just five months later, in April 2013, it was above $200. This upward trend continued until the end of that year, when it exceeded $1,000 for the first time.
In any case, the increase seemed to have moderated greatly in 2020, when the currency only gained 400%, albeit in a context shaped by the pandemic, lack of regulation and interest rates at historic lows. “We are not at the fever pitch of a few years ago, but we are optimistic about what may happen,” Fernandez summarizes.
The market’s most skeptical voices point out that, although there is a correlation, there is no causality between this technological milestone and a price increase. This discourages the most optimistic voices, who fantasize in specialized forums that the value of the currency will soar above $435,000 by the end of 2024. “Obviously, past events do not guarantee future events,” says Soriano. Manuel Villegas, digital assets analyst at Julius Baer, estimates that the halving could serve as a catalyst for a new growth cycle in the cryptoasset market.”
Will it have any effect on ETFs?
Analysts stress that the effects will at least crossover. Investor interest in accessing bitcoin through exchange-traded funds may increase if the price soars or if FOMO — fear of missing out — increases in the face of multiple reports of high investment returns in a more secure and regulated environment. At the same time, the existence of these investment vehicles means that the crypto asset price is not as volatile as it was previously, especially given the participation of institutional players who, for the time being, do not seem so concerned about volatility.
Halving could also indirectly impact investment portfolios. In addition to bitcoin ETFs, there are a number of funds related to the crypto industry in the U.S. market. For example, the Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) invests in companies involved in mining this digital currency, which, until recently, was a way to gain exposure to the crypto world in the stock market. In a more competitive environment among miners, the smaller ones could disappear, which would benefit this fund, for example.
What other factors impact this context?
The market is attentive to two related news items. On the one hand, the success of large fund managers in promoting bitcoin exchange-traded funds launched in January this year. It is important to remember that in 2017 Larry Fink, the CEO of the giant BlackRock, called bitcoin a “money laundering index” but today he is a big believer in the cryptocurrency. The iShares bitcoin fund — BlackRock’s ETF banner — manages over $16 billion, almost 30% of the total capital in these investment vehicles.
A new development may also come from BlackRock: the ETF approval of Ether, the second cryptocurrency behind bitcoin. Fink’s firm is one of the many companies that have asked the US regulator to approve this type of fund. Although a frenzy like the one generated during this first part of the year is not expected, it would confirm an about-face on the part of the authorities who, while still wary of crypto assets, are at least seeking to establish a clearer regulatory environment.
Finally, what happens at the monetary policy level in both the United States and Europe will also be important. A possible reduction in interest rates on one or both sides of the Atlantic Ocean would increase interest in riskier investment alternatives, such as cryptocurrencies.
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Crypto
Kalshi Approved for Margin Trading After Affiliate Kinetic Markets Gets FCM Registration
Kalshi Margin Trading Approved
The NFA filing lists Kinetic Markets as both an FCM and swap firm. Bloomberg was the first to report on the NFA filing. Kalshi Inc. holds a 10% or greater financial interest in the entity. Co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara are named as indirect owners, with Lior Samuel Hirschfeld serving as CEO of Kinetic, Sam Rosner as CFO, and Joshua Andrew Beardsley as chief compliance officer.
Until now, Kalshi operated on a fully collateralized model, requiring traders to post 100% of a contract’s value before entering a position. Margin trading changes that. Participants will be able to hold positions by posting only a fraction of the total value as collateral, freeing up capital for other use.
Mansour told attendees at a recent Kalshi Research conference that margin access will open to institutional investors first, hedge funds, prop desks, and similar firms, before any retail rollout is considered. No firm launch date has been announced.
The FCM approval connects directly to Kalshi’s existing status as a CFTC-designated contract market for event contracts, one of the first exchanges to hold that designation. The company filed for FCM registration in late 2025, and the NFA confirmed the approval this week.
Kalshi’s push into institutional access has been building for months. In early February 2026, the company was reported to be seeking CFTC approval specifically to attract capital from professional trading operations. The FCM registration gives those firms the leverage framework they need to participate at scale.
The report notes that recent partnership announcements reflect the same direction. Kalshi signed a clearing and infrastructure deal with Fidelity Information Services, announced a data integration with Ark Invest on March 26, 2026, and completed an earlier integration with Tradeweb in 2026.
Monthly trading volumes on the platform have exceeded $10 billion in recent periods. The company’s valuation stands at roughly $22 billion. Kalshi currently offers contracts on politics, sports, crypto prices, weather outcomes, and other real-world events.
Founded in 2020, Kalshi spent years in regulatory proceedings before the CFTC approved it as the first dedicated event contract exchange. The platform has also faced state-level legal challenges in Tennessee and Nevada over sports betting jurisdiction, but federal courts have sided with CFTC oversight of the contracts.
Onlookers on social media described the FCM registration as a “major hurdle” for Kalshi. Alongside this, it will benefit institutional participants who want short exposure to event-driven outcomes, positions that were difficult to construct efficiently under the old collateral structure.
“Solving for the Ouroborus of Margin & Jump Risk is how you get adoption by players who have to deploy at a large notiona amount,” one person wrote on X.
How quickly institutional adoption follows will depend on how Kalshi structures margin requirements and which contracts it makes eligible. The company has indicated the feature may not apply to all event contracts at launch.
Kinetic Markets is currently listed as an inactive NFA member, meaning it is not independently conducting commodity interest business. Its primary function is to support Kalshi’s expanded trading infrastructure. Further details on the rollout timeline are expected in the coming weeks.
FAQ 🔎
- What is Kinetic Markets LLC? Kinetic Markets LLC is a Kalshi affiliate registered by the NFA as a futures commission merchant on March 24, 2026, to enable margin trading on the platform.
- How does margin trading work on Kalshi? Instead of posting 100% of a contract’s value, margin traders post a fraction of the position as collateral, improving capital efficiency.
- Who can access Kalshi margin trading first? Margin trading will initially be available to institutional investors such as hedge funds, with retail access potentially following at a later date.
- Is Kalshi regulated by the CFTC? Yes, Kalshi operates as a CFTC-designated contract market, one of the first exchanges approved specifically for event contracts.
Crypto
Nonprofits face challenges with cryptocurrency | Samuel French
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Nonprofits and cryptocurrency donations are increasingly being used to put old-fashioned money in the bank.
Cryptocurrency valuations over time are such that more nonprofits are opening up to accepting crypto and converting it to cash, or holding on to it for hoped-for long-term value increases.
Principal factors that have held back nonprofits’ acceptance of crypto donations are uncertainty about how it works, valuation volatility, tax implications and regulatory considerations. But the strains on traditional fundraising and the potential gain nonprofits can realize from crypto are driving them to explore — or accept — this nontraditional funding source. Other issues are not having a vehicle in place to accept crypto, and many nonprofits as regards crypto haven’t updated their internal investment policies and donation acceptance policies.
Crypto’s name is based on combining cryptography (encrypted codes) with currency. There is no government central bank or other authority creating crypto. An internet artificial intelligence overview explains crypto creation as follows, and don’t be surprised if it seems almost a foreign language: “Cryptocurrency is created through decentralized digital processes, primarily mining or validation, rather than being minted by a central bank. New coins are generated as rewards for securing the blockchain network, verifying transactions, and solving complex mathematical problems, using specialized computer hardware.”
Crypto valuation has something in common with the plush toys called Beanie Babies. Beginning in 1993, Beanie Babies were a craze for a short time. As the idea of a collectible toy spread, demand grew; scarcity and restrained production drove costs higher. Long lines formed at stores so the newest ones could be grabbed as they went on shelves. Today, many Beanie Babies can be bought on eBay for $5.99, though some rare, mint-condition Babies sell for thousands. Why the high and the low? That’s what people are willing to pay.
Basically, crypto has value because it’s believed and accepted to have value. Key valuation factors include supply and demand and crypto’s controlled, decentralized nature outside the traditional fiat currency structure. There are many forms of crypto; Bitcoin, the largest crypto variation, has seen spectacular gains in value as well as encountering substantial valuation declines.
Bitcoin debuted in 2009 with essentially no value. On Oct. 6, 2025, Bitcoin reached its high-water mark of $126,198.07. At 2 p.m. on March 11, Bitcoin was at $70,268.35. Bankrate.com explains Bitcoin’s value driver: “The price of Bitcoin is notoriously driven by sentiment. When the market shifts to its ‘greed’ phase, Bitcoin soars amid the utopian promises and speculators dismiss the risks of an asset that generates no cash flow. In the ‘fear’ phase, Bitcoin’s price seems to find no traction, as sellers push its price lower amid bad news or general market malaise.” In short, Bitcoin, or any crypto, is worth what the buyer will pay.
The IRS treats crypto as a digital asset, along with stablecoin (stable because it’s tied to stable assets like gold or the U.S. dollar) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs, one-of-a-kind cryptographic tokens on a blockchain, that can’t be replicated.) Nonprofits receiving crypto donations must treat them for tax purposes as property donations rather than currency donations. The IRS’s “Frequently asked questions on virtual currency transactions” page lists IRS notices and links to pages dealing with crypto’s tax implications.
A nonprofit with crypto donations can’t go down to the bank and hand them to a teller to cash in the donations. Financial institutions use third-party processors, just as a nonprofit would use an exchange or processor to make the conversion. The National Council of Nonprofits provides a detailed look at crypto donations and conversion in “What Your Nonprofit Needs to Know About Cryptocurrency Donations.”
Nonprofits can seek to convert their crypto donations to cash as soon as the donation is in hand. If Bitcoin, the amount, even if well off the high, will still likely be substantial. Other types, not so much. The question confronting every nonprofit looking at a crypto donation is whether to sell or buy and hold? The decision depends substantially on the organization’s immediate needs — and if they’re willing to bet the value will increase — because that’s what it is, a bet.
Nonprofits are best advised to seek the advice of accounting or finance professionals fluent and experienced in cryptocurrency language and disposition strategies, and who walk nonprofit leaders through the substance of crypto merits and demerits. The outcome will give a stronger basis for decisions on if, when and how much money from a crypto donation will actually go into the bank.
Samuel French is president of the accounting and business consulting firm Rodefer Moss & Co. PLLC, headquartered in Knoxville. The company’s website is rodefermoss.com.
Crypto
Trust Wallet Adds AI Transaction Layer to Self-Custody Wallet Infrastructure
Trust Wallet Agent Kit: AI Can Now Act on Your Crypto — With Your Permission
The kit ships in two configurations. In the first, developers set up a dedicated wallet built specifically for AI agent activity, where users define permissions upfront, and the agent can run automated strategies like dollar-cost averaging, limit orders, and price alerts, without asking for approval on every transaction.
In the second configuration, an AI agent connects to a user’s existing Trust Wallet through Walletconnect, proposes transactions, and waits for the user to approve them before anything moves. The firm notes that the user’s custody stays intact throughout.
The release follows Trust Wallet’s Developer Portal, which opened last week with read-only access to crypto data across more than 100 blockchains, including live prices, token metadata, and onchain risk signals. The Agent Kit extends that foundation by adding the ability to act, not just observe.
At launch, supported networks include Ethereum-compatible chains, Solana, Bitcoin, BNB Chain, Cosmos, TON, Aptos, Tron, NEAR, and Sui. Trust Wallet says that coverage makes it the broadest chain-compatible AI wallet infrastructure currently available.
The kit integrates with Model Context Protocol (MCP), the standard developers use to connect AI systems to external platforms, and is available through a command line interface. According to the company’s announcement, a developer can go from account creation to a working AI agent in under 15 minutes.
Out-of-the-box features include token swaps, limit orders, automated strategies, ENS resolution, ERC-20 approvals, message signing, portfolio tracking, wallet auto-lock, and a REST API for deeper integrations.
Felix Fan, CEO of Trust Wallet, remarked in a statement that AI agents need a trusted layer before they can safely act on a user’s finances. The Agent Kit, he said, gives developers the tools to build agents that execute on real wallets within rules the user sets.
Trust Wallet, which reports more than 220 million downloads, describes its broader goal as becoming the self-custody infrastructure for AI-powered finance, a foundational layer that lets AI participate in crypto workflows without users surrendering ownership of their assets.
The company plans to bring AI features directly to end users inside the Trust Wallet app over the coming months, with in-wallet insights, automated strategies, and personalized alerts. A separate Agent Marketplace is also on the roadmap, where developers can publish reusable agent strategies and trading bots for users to deploy directly from their wallets.
Trust Wallet’s development arrives as a growing number of crypto firms roll out services and features tailored to the emerging agentic economy. Since the debut of Openclaw, interest in AI agents has accelerated profoundly, with companies such as Circle, Binance, Coinbase, and a myriad of others unveiling tools and infrastructure focused squarely on this evolving segment.
FAQ 🔎
- What is the Trust Wallet Agent Kit? It is a developer tool that allows AI agents to execute real crypto transactions on a user’s wallet across more than 25 supported blockchains.
- How does Trust Wallet keep users in control of AI transactions? Users can require per-transaction approval through WalletConnect or configure preset permissions on a dedicated agent wallet before any automation runs.
- What blockchains does the Trust Wallet Agent Kit support? At launch it supports Ethereum-compatible chains, Bitcoin, Solana, BNB Chain, Cosmos, TON, Aptos, Tron, NEAR, and Sui.
- Where can developers access the Trust Wallet Agent Kit? The kit is available now via the Trust Wallet Developer Portal at portal.trustwallet.com.
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