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Winter is gone. But can we really say Europe’s energy crisis is over?

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Winter is gone. But can we really say Europe’s energy crisis is over?

Europe’s winter has come to an finish.

Whereas this winter had the usual length of three months, it felt just like the lengthiest season on document: it had arrived within the midst of ominous warnings of crippling gasoline shortages, industrial paralysis, widespread blackouts, obligatory rationing and even civil unrest.

The wall-to-wall headlines appeared at instances to predict Europe’s vitality doomsday. However as a substitute, winter got here and went, with no hint of the foretold day of reckoning.

Because of a mix of policy-making, market dynamics, climate phenomena and private initiative, Europeans averted the worst-case state of affairs of the vitality disaster, a outstanding feat in itself even when a few of the scars from the make-or-break interval are nonetheless therapeutic.

The collective effort performed out in full public view, with alternate moments of boldness and hysteria, and spilled over from the corridors of energy to dinner-table conversations about electrical energy contracts, warmth pumps and turtlenecks.

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Liquefied pure gasoline (LNG), an unfamiliar commodity for abnormal Europeans, all of the sudden grew to become a family title and a high political precedence, whereas the ups and downs at the Title Switch Facility (TTF), a digital hub for gasoline buying and selling, had been accompanied by palpitations and chilly sweats.

‘This 12 months will nonetheless be a problem’

“Coming into into spring as we speak, we are able to now say that we managed this winter season properly. As we completed with a half-full storage, the primary battle of this vitality warfare with Russia is efficiently behind us,” Kadri Simson, the European Commissioner for vitality, informed Euronews.

“We needs to be underneath no phantasm that issues are getting simple, nonetheless. This 12 months will nonetheless be a problem and the next 12 months as properly. Many uncertainties stay. Regardless of the general good vitality scenario, we have to keep vigilant and work laborious to organize for the approaching winter.”

However this success didn’t come off low-cost: the Worldwide Power Company (IEA) estimates the European Union spent final 12 months practically €400 billion in gasoline purchases – virtually 3 times the 2021 invoice.

In keeping with Bruegel, a Brussels-based assume tank, the fiscal assist rolled out by EU nations to cushion residents and corporations in opposition to the disaster is price a minimum of €657 billion.

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Germany, a closely gas-dependent nation, earmarked €265 billion alone.

Though the vitality disaster is often described as probably the most notorious penalties of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the crunch really predates the brutal warfare.

The phenomenon dates all the best way again to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, when nations internationally went into abrupt lockdowns and the worldwide economic system was successfully frozen. The standstill despatched demand for vitality on a downward spiral: wholesale costs collapsed, funding tasks had been paused and producers reduce their output out of worry of seeing their provides go to waste.

The stunted markets had been taken abruptly when, as quickly as pandemic restrictions had been lifted, shoppers launched into a procuring spree and journey mania to make up for the time spent in quarantine. Power producers had been unable to fulfill this sudden restoration, scary a profound mismatch between provide and demand that pushed costs up.

By December 2021, gasoline costs had been virtually 3 times greater than they had been a 12 months earlier.

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Russia’s gasoline roulette

In parallel, Russia, then the EU’s main vitality provider, had begun to cut back its gasoline flows to the bloc, leaving underground storage at dramatically low ranges. The development corresponded with an ever-growing deployment of troops alongside the Ukrainian border.

The tight market circumstances set the scene for Vladimir Putin’s technique of leveraging vitality as a weapon, says Ben McWilliams, an vitality and local weather guide on the Bruegel assume tank.

“Russia wasn’t filling the storage up and this despatched off some alarm bells round Europe,” McWilliams informed Euronews.

“Whether or not it was geopolitical or market-based, it is unattainable to say for positive. However my take can be it was geopolitical and that this was a part of a broader technique to dry up European gasoline reserves forward of the invasion after which progressively play with the European system.”

The invasion sparked market chaos of unprecedented magnitude, sending policymakers right into a panic to exchange 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) of Russian gasoline – round 40% of whole imports.

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In a most unlucky coincidence, France’s nuclear vitality manufacturing slumped to a 30-year low resulting from upkeep operations whereas Europe’s hydroelectric output was badly hit by a extreme drought.

In a matter of weeks, Europe’s means to maintain the lights on was underneath query.

The spectre of rationing grew to become so palpable that Brussels was compelled to design an EU-wide plan to slash gasoline consumption by 15% earlier than spring, marking the primary time the bloc had agreed on a coordinated technique to restrict the usage of one thing as abnormal as gasoline.

The facility of financial savings

The febrile state of gasoline costs reached its peak in summer time, when European governments, fearing a winter of discontent, opened their checkbooks extensive to pay no matter was essential to fill underground storages.

On 26 August, the TTF set an all-time excessive of €320 per megawatt-hour, eight instances the value recorded on the day earlier than the invasion was launched.

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For these seated on the negotiating desk, a realisation dawned: conventional strategies had been exhausted and unconventional considering was required to fend off a disaster.

The political impetus introduced forth a raft of extraordinary vitality measures: necessary energy financial savings throughout peak hours, a tax on windfall earnings, default solidarity guidelines to stop shortages, and joint procurement for gasoline provides had been all accepted at document pace.

Even a extremely divisive cap on gasoline costs was agreed upon after hard-fought talks between ambassadors and passionate pleas from leaders themselves.

Sarcastically, by the point the cap was settled at €180 per megawatt-hour, gasoline costs had entered a gradual decline, falling again to pre-war ranges in early January, when unusually balmy climate swept throughout Europe and tamed client demand.

As temperatures progressively rose, costs continued to fall. On the primary day of spring, costs on the TTF hovered beneath €39 per megawatt-hour.

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Whereas vitality specialists and analysts have a good time the ground-breaking nature of those EU insurance policies and the way they saved the one market intact, most imagine the important thing to the efficient disaster administration lies in financial savings.

The crushing worry of an impossibly costly invoice prompted households and corporations to take issues into their very own arms and scale down their consumption properly earlier than policymakers informed them to take action.

The EU’s gasoline demand fell final 12 months by 13%, equal to 55 bcm and sufficient to energy 40 million properties, the IEA has stated, calling it the bloc’s “steepest drop in historical past.”

The company credited the gasoline financial savings to the trade, which lower down manufacturing hours and boosted imports of completed items, and to changes in buildings, corresponding to reducing the thermostat, shortening sizzling showers and putting in warmth pumps.

Electrical energy era was the one sector that noticed a modest enhance in gasoline use because of the have to make up for decrease hydropower and nuclear output.

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Elisabetta Cornago, a senior vitality researcher on the Centre for European Reform (CER), described the financial savings as an “spectacular response” however stated a few of the adjustments, notably the commercial cutbacks, had been non permanent quite than “structural.”

“The behavioural response was pushed by value degree and the worry of how costs will influence your life. These fears and issues led shoppers to remain on the conservative facet and attempt to restrict the hours they’d the heating on,” Cornago informed Euronews.

“Fears of shortages and blackouts had been substantial, they weren’t only a media stunt. The second we realised French nuclear and hydropower had been weak, the chance on the electrical energy entrance and the gasoline entrance grew to become actual.”

‘We’re nonetheless in a disaster’

With the calamity largely averted, many in Europe are actually keen to show the web page on the vitality disaster.

The subject has misplaced its prominence in Brussels circles, permitting gadgets like migration and sustainable transport to come back again to the very high of the agenda.

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The calm, although, mustn’t flip into complacency, specialists warn, as the worldwide mismatch between provide and demand is poised to proceed squeezing costs.

Fuel financial savings and LNG imports ought to work collectively to keep away from a repeat of the 2022 drama, says Nikoline Bromander, a senior analyst at Rystad Power, an impartial analysis agency.

“Europe enters 2023 with a better-balanced market,” Bromander informed Euronews. “For now, it seems that robust provide and storage fundamentals are countering chilly climate forecasts.”

By the top of this 12 months, Europe will be capable of import a further 78 bcm of LNG, paving the best way for regular flows from the USA, Qatar, Nigeria and different producers.

However, Bromader famous, Europe won’t be the only shopper chasing after these LNG vessels.

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“We estimate that 60% of the LNG that Europe will want in 2023 can be within the type of uncontracted volumes sourced from the spot-market,” Bromader stated. “It will require Europe to compete with the worldwide market, together with Asia, and is prone to end in a decent market into 2023.”

Ben McWilliams struck a equally prudent word, saying that though Russia’s energy to twist the markets at will has been depleted, the vitality disaster was “evolving and altering, nevertheless it’s definitely not over.”

“We’re now getting into a brand new section the place gasoline costs are nonetheless structurally greater than they had been two years in the past. And I might say it is not possible they may return to the place they had been two years in the past, a minimum of for the following couple of years,” stated McWilliams.

“The system will nonetheless stay careworn. So we’re nonetheless in a disaster.”

The European Fee has already proposed to increase the 15% gasoline discount plan till March 2024, reflecting how elementary financial savings have change into. The primary joint purchases of gasoline are scheduled to happen in the summertime with the intention of securing decrease costs to refill underground storages.

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“It’s now necessary that member states maintain the course and proceed with actions that can obtain each of our twin objectives: vitality safety and reasonably priced costs,” Commissioner Simson stated.

However the query of what constitutes “reasonably priced costs” in wartime remains to be up for debate. 

Households are determining find out how to accommodate greater payments of their month-to-month bills with out making uncomfortable sacrifices. Political leaders and enterprise associations are warning of an irreparable lack of competitiveness and a mass industrial exodus if vitality payments refuse to go down.

So how lengthy will Europe’s vitality disaster final?

“So long as we’re depending on gasoline provides for the economic system and till the vitality transition is accomplished, this vulnerability to the value of gasoline or to what gasoline suppliers determine to do will stay. Due to that, the state of alert can be there,” Elisabetta Cornago stated.

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“We’re not out of the woods.”

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A wild orangutan used a medicinal plant to treat a wound, scientists say

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A wild orangutan used a medicinal plant to treat a wound, scientists say

WASHINGTON (AP) — An orangutan appeared to treat a wound with medicine from a tropical plant— the latest example of how some animals attempt to soothe their own ills with remedies found in the wild, scientists reported Thursday.

Scientists observed Rakus pluck and chew up leaves of a medicinal plant used by people throughout Southeast Asia to treat pain and inflammation. The adult male orangutan then used his fingers to apply the plant juices to an injury on the right cheek. Afterward, he pressed the chewed plant to cover the open wound like a makeshift bandage, according to a new study in Scientific Reports.

Previous research has documented several species of great apes foraging for medicines in forests to heal themselves, but scientists hadn’t yet seen an animal treat itself in this way.

“This is the first time that we have observed a wild animal applying a quite potent medicinal plant directly to a wound,” said co-author Isabelle Laumer, a biologist at the Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior in Konstanz, Germany.

The orangutan’s intriguing behavior was recorded in 2022 by Ulil Azhari, a co-author and field researcher at the Suaq Project in Medan, Indonesia. Photographs show the animal’s wound closed within a month without any problems.

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Scientists have been observing orangutans in Indonesia’s Gunung Leuser National Park since 1994, but they hadn’t previously seen this behavior.

“It’s a single observation,” said Emory University biologist Jacobus de Roode, who was not involved in the study. “But often we learn about new behaviors by starting with a single observation.”

“Very likely it’s self-medication,” said de Roode, adding that the orangutan applied the plant only to the wound and no other body part.

It’s possible Rakus learned the technique from other orangutans living outside the park and away from scientists’ daily scrutiny, said co-author Caroline Schuppli at Max Planck.

Rakus was born and lived as a juvenile outside the study area. Researchers believe the orangutan got hurt in a fight with another animal. It’s not known whether Rakus earlier treated other injuries.

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Scientists have previously recorded other primates using plants to treat themselves.

Bornean orangutans rubbed themselves with juices from a medicinal plant, possibly to reduce body pains or chase away parasites.

Chimpanzees in multiple locations have been observed chewing on the shoots of bitter-tasting plants to soothe their stomachs. Gorillas, chimpanzees and bonobos swallow certain rough leaves whole to get rid of stomach parasites.

“If this behavior exists in some of our closest living relatives, what could that tell us about how medicine first evolved?” said Tara Stoinski, president and chief scientific officer of the nonprofit Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund, who had no role in the study.

___

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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Israel's president releases blistering statement on US university encampments: 'Resurgence of antisemitism'

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Israel's president releases blistering statement on US university encampments: 'Resurgence of antisemitism'

Israel’s president weighed in on the massive antisemitic encampments that have sprouted up at elite colleges and universities across the United States, condemning the “masked cowards” who “smash windows and barricade doors.”

Israeli President Isaac Herzog addressed those in the Jewish community on these campuses and around the world that feel victimized by the demonstrations.

“In the face of violence, harassment, and intimidation, as masked cowards smash windows and barricade doors, assault the truth and manipulate history, together, we stand strong,” President Herzog said in a video address.

“As they chant for infitada and genocide, we will work together to free our hostages held by Hamas and fight for civil liberties of the entire free world and our right to believe and belong and the right to live proudly, peacefully and securely as Jews and as Israelis anywhere,” he added.

UCLA FORCED TO MOVE TO REMOTE LEARNING AMID ANTISEMITIC PROTESTS, ENCAMPMENT ON CAMPUS

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Israel’s president weighed in on the massive antisemitic encampments like the one at the University of California, Los Angeles, which police and other law enforcement officers cleared on May 2, 2024. (Photo by ETIENNE LAURENT/AFP via Getty Images)

Herzog’s address comes as a multi-agency group of law enforcement officers on Thursday moved onto the University of California, Los Angeles campus to remove an anti-Israel encampment that was declared unlawful.

“We see prominent academic institutions, halls of history, culture and education, contaminated by hatred and antisemitism fueled by arrogance and ignorance, driven by moral failings and disinformation,” Herzog said. “We watch in horror as the atrocities of Oct. 7 against Israel are celebrated and justified. We hear you. We recognize your heroic effort. We are with you. We are here for you.”

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY FACILITIES WORKER SPEAKS OUT AFTER TERROR TAKEOVER: ‘THEY HELD ME HOSTAGE’

“Dear sisters and brothers, to our friends on campuses and in Jewish communities across the United States and all over the world, to those who stand by and defend the Jewish people and the state of Israel, to all people of good will, the people of Israel are with you,” he continued. “We hear you.”

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Herzog added: “We see the shameless hostility and threats. We feel the insults, the breach of faith and breach of friendship. We share the apprehension and concern.

Agitators, Free Palestine flag

President Herzog’s comments come as anti-Israel agitators formed an encampment on the campus of UCLA in Los Angeles. (Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images)

His comments come just days before Holocaust Remembrance Day, which will be recognized on Monday, May 6.

UCLA FALLS TO ANARCHY AFTER COUNTERPROTESTERS CONFRONT ANTI-ISRAELI ENCAMPMENT: ‘HORRIFIC ACTS OF VIOLENCE’

“Together we will overcome this resurgence of antisemitism. Do not fear. Stand proud. Stand strong for your freedom. Israel stands with you. Israel cares for you,” Herzog concluded.

Police officers move in on anti-Israel encampment at UCLA

Police officers detained anti-Israel protesters who chanted antisemitic remarks and slogans on the campus of the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) in Los Angeles. (ETIENNE LAURENT/AFP via Getty Images)

In contrast, Iran has expressed support for anti-Israeli demonstrations that have erupted across elite U.S. colleges and universities.

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Last month, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian defended the hundreds of students who have been arrested at UCLA, Columbia University, the University of Southern California, UT-Austin and others for disrupting campus facilities and trespassing.

“The suppression and harsh treatment of the American police and security forces against professors and students protesting the genocide and war crimes of the Israeli regime in various universities of this country is deeply worried and disgusted by the public opinion of the world,” the foreign minister said on X, according to a translation.

He added: “This repression is in line with the continuation of Washington’s full-fledged support for the Israeli regime and clearly shows the dual policy and contradictory behavior of the American government towards freedom of expression.”

Police at UCLA faced off against a left-wing mob on Thursday morning, when officers dismantled an anti-Israel encampment and took agitators into custody.

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Officers wearing riot gear knocked down a plywood barrier surrounding UCLA’s Dickson Plaza, where the anti-Israel encampment was being held, entered the area and began conducting arrests throughout the morning.

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In the upcoming European elections, peace and security matter the most

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In the upcoming European elections, peace and security matter the most

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

With so many threats on the horizon, we need a union that can navigate the turbulent seas of the future and protect the European dream of peace and prosperity for its people and global neighbours, Alexander Borum writes.

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As the European elections approach, a new group of Members of the European Parliament will soon take office, tasked with navigating the turbulent waters of global volatility and the immense challenges Europe is currently grappling with. 

In this shifting geopolitical landscape, uncertainty and conflict threaten European values and way of life, underscoring the urgent need to bolster the continent’s security and adopt a strong stance in the bloc’s foreign and security policy. 

EU voters must remember the significance of collective security when they cast their votes in early June, considering the broader implications of their choices for our future. 

As voters, we must make informed decisions that will ensure the stability and prosperity of the union.

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Like the rest of the world, the EU is currently grappling with a multitude of issues that are directly impacting the lives and future of its citizens. 

From a deteriorating climate to a cost-of-living crisis, energy insecurity, migration pressures, and a surge of conflicts both within and outside Europe. 

While all these issues are important, it is unrealistic to expect that we can address them all at once. As voters, we must ask ourselves, where should we direct our attention and energy for the most effective long-term impact?

War keeps knocking on our door

Looking back at our shared history can give us a clue. Here, we must acknowledge the European Union’s roots as a peace and economic development project. 

The EU has, in this regard, been a successful endeavour. Through increased cooperation and burden sharing, we have witnessed a period of unity and progress never seen before on the continent. 

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While the EU was never without faults, we must reflect on the challenges faced by our British brothers and sisters in the wake of Brexit. It is clear to see that member states are stronger and better off standing together.

As EU voters, we must stand together as we look towards the future, recognising that while the EU peace project has been successful, not everyone agrees with the union’s approach. 

War is knocking on our door, and as the Ukrainian people pay the ultimate price for resisting the aggression they face, we must acknowledge that the very same threat is encroaching on our external borders. 

This war threatens the organic and consensual growth of the union. As such, EU voters must reflect on their role in European security and the need to embrace collective security responsibilities with a sense of urgency.

Being complacent and disinterested won’t do it any more

After enjoying decades of peace under the EU umbrella, European voters have grown complacent and disinterested in security policy and defence spending. 

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However, in light of the current reality, if EU voters genuinely desire peace and economic prosperity, they must collectively shoulder the responsibility for security and defence in the EU. 

This implies making tough choices in the coming years, as matching up to Russia’s projected defence spending of 8% of GDP in 2024 will require sacrifices. It’s time for the EU, where most member states still fall short of the 2% NATO commitment, to embrace collective security responsibilities.

For decades, Europe has relied on others for its collective security. Still, with the horrors of war returning to European soil and Trumpian cracks emerging in the close-knit alliance with our US cousins, it is evident that the status quo is broken. 

It is increasingly clear that EU voters must once again look to the age-old Latin adage _si vis parcem para bellum_— “if you want peace, prepare for war” — to better position the European Union in the world. 

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For a brighter future, the EU must take on a concerted effort to advance European security and defence, deter aggression, and safeguard our shared values and heritage.

For all EU citizens, it is crucial to ensure that security and defence are a clear priority in the European elections in June, ensuring that we collectively push for the continent’s strategic autonomy and further enable it to protect not only itself, its values, and its interests, but also its neighbours from hostile actors. 

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While strategic autonomy for Europe is a long-term ambition, we must face the fact that our inability to provide the support required for Ukraine to defend itself against an existential threat could easily define the fate of European security for all of us.

No more empty lip service, please

Guiding Europe towards a future of credible deterrence, a more balanced transatlantic partnership in NATO, and the ability to respond to critical threats to the union is crucial. 

EU voters must strive for a future where threats to our borders, our near-abroad, or even the vital global supply lines we rely on can be addressed with a combination of cohesive diplomacy and credible deterrence. 

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With this in mind, voters must cast their ballots with determination, fully understanding the need and urgency for a robust European Union. 

Come June, citizens must elect European lawmakers who will not pay lip service to our collective security needs and are not afraid to push uncomfortable yet necessary policies. 

With so many threats on the horizon, we need a union that can navigate the turbulent seas of the future and protect the European dream of peace and prosperity for its people and global neighbours. 

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Without a vote in favour of our security, we cannot hope to continue our lives in peace, further progress and development. 

Alexander Borum is Policy Leader Fellow at the European University Institute in Florence, focusing on the European Union Common Security and Defence Policy.

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