Alaska
Election Day in Alaska: When to expect results, and what to look for • Alaska Beacon
On Election Day, polling stations are scheduled to be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m., and the first initial results should be posted online about 9:15 p.m., based on prior schedules.
In the state’s closest races, a winner won’t become apparent until Nov. 20, when the state tabulates the results of its ranked choice elections.
The closest races likely will include the state’s U.S. House election and the ballot measure seeking to repeal ranked choice voting.
Carol Beecher, director of the Division of Elections, said by email that results updates will likely come on a similar schedule to 2022. That year, the first results were posted at 9:11 p.m. and were updated until shortly after 2 a.m. the following morning. Election Day results were again updated about 4 p.m. the following day.
Election Day results will include ballots cast on Election Day, plus early votes (those given at polling stations where voters present an ID) cast by the end of the day on Halloween.
Some absentee votes (usually sent by mail and subject to later ID verification) will also be included, but we won’t know how many — that’s determined by how quickly the state review board operates.
If a mailed-in absentee ballot was postmarked on or before Election Day, state law allows it to be counted if it arrives on or before Nov. 15 (if mailed from within the United States) or Nov. 20 (if mailed internationally). Historically, most absentee ballots arrive within one week of Election Day.
As more absentee ballots arrive and are counted, the Division of Elections is scheduled to update election results on Nov. 12 and Nov. 15.
Those updates will only include voters’ first choices. If a race has three or more candidates and none of them have at least 50% of the first-choice votes, the Division of Elections will use ranked choice voting to determine a winner.
On Nov. 20, the last-place finisher will be eliminated, and voters who picked that person will have their votes go to their second choice. If they don’t have a second choice, their ballot will be “exhausted” and not count for any of the remaining candidates.
The elimination process will continue until only two candidates remain, and the person with the greatest number of votes will be declared the winner.
The Division of Elections could offer an immediate ranked choice tabulation and update it as more ballots arrive, but when ranked choice voting was established by voters in 2020, the division’s then-director said that might be confusing for voters, and as a matter of policy, the division does only one tabulation.
U.S. House race result is likely to wait
That wait for tabulation could mean a wait for Alaska’s close-run U.S. House election, where Democratic incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola is being challenged by Republican Nick Begich, Alaskan Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe and imprisoned, out-of-state Democratic candidate Eric Hafner.
In the August primary election, Peltola had more than 50% of the vote, but in the months since then, polling indicates that the race has tightened, with Begich’s odds helped by the fact that two trailing Republicans — including Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom — withdrew after the primary.
Howe and Hafner aren’t expected to receive many first choice votes, but if the margin between Peltola and Begich remains small, their supporters’ second-choice votes could be decisive once tabulation takes place.
Eight candidates in the presidential election
Alaska’s local elections have no more than four listed candidates, but the presidential election has eight, which makes it possible that an official winner won’t be declared until Nov. 20.
Republicans have won every presidential election in Alaska since 1964, and Republican candidate Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win Alaska this year as well.
With eight candidates in the race, it’s possible that Trump fails to exceed 50% of the first-choice votes, leaving the race to be decided until the ranked choice tabulation.
Ballot measures and judges could be decided early
Alaska’s two ballot measures aren’t subject to ranked choice tabulation — they’re a simple up or down vote, which means that we don’t have to wait until the Nov. 20 tabulation day.
Preelection polling presented to the Alaska Chamber of Commerce in October showed that Ballot Measure 1 — which would increase the state’s minimum wage, mandate sick leave and ban mandatory political and religious meetings — has a significant lead among voters. It’s expected to pass easily, and Election Day results will reveal whether that expectation holds true.
Ballot Measure 2 — which would repeal the state’s ranked choice general election and open primary election system — is too close to predict, polling indicates. Polling earlier in the summer found that “yes” to the repeal was ahead, but that’s changed, with “no” having a lead more recently. It’s still within the margin of error, however.
While it’s possible that Election Day results will give yes or no a definitive lead, it’s more likely that we won’t know for certain until about a week after Election Day, when more absentee ballots are counted.
Nineteen judges are also on the ballot statewide. Voters can choose to vote yes or no on whether to retain them. It’s extraordinarily unusual for voters to reject a judge, but there is a campaign to evict one of them, Adolf Zeman of Anchorage, for a legal decision on the state’s correspondence school program. No polling is available for that election, which is one to watch on Election Day.
Will polls operate correctly?
The Alaska Division of Elections has struggled this year with a variety of missteps, including the failure to open all polling stations on time during the primary election.
Two years ago, ballots from a handful of remote towns failed to reach Juneau after Election Day, meaning that they weren’t counted in the ranked choice tally. Only voters’ first choices were considered.
Ahead of the general election, there’s already been one significant problem: Absentee voters in three Southwest Alaska towns received the wrong ballots, and more than 90 had to revote as a result.
Will Election Day voters differ from advance voters?
Four years ago, 361,400 Alaskans voted in the 2020 presidential election. This year, Michael McDonald, a Florida-based political scientist and an expert in voter turnout, expects slightly lower turnout and about 355,000 votes cast.
Through Friday, 95,415 people had already cast ballots, representing more than a quarter of the expected total turnout. Early voting — done in person, with IDs verified on site — has set an all-time record.
Early and absentee voters combined have been disproportionately Republican. Altogether, more than 33% of advance votes through Nov. 1 came from registered Republicans. Statewide, Republicans make up just under 24% of registered voters.
Registered Democrats have also been voting in unusually large numbers — they represent over 12% of registered voters but more than 17% of votes cast so far.
Election Day results will determine whether those figures represent a larger trend or not.
Conservative Republicans are likely to gain in the state Senate — but how much?
The Alaska Senate is governed by a 17-member supermajority coalition that includes nine Democrats and eight Republicans.
One member of that coalition, Sen. Click Bishop, R-Fairbanks, isn’t running for re-election, and his seat is likely to be taken by either Republican Mike Cronk or independent Savannah Fletcher. Alaskan Independence Party candidate Bert Williams is also running.
Cronk is inclined toward a Republican-led majority, rather than the current balanced coalition, while Fletcher favors the status quo. Cronk beat Fletcher by a small margin in the August primary.
In Eagle River, coalition Republican Sen. Kelly Merrick is being challenged by Republican Jared Goecker, who also prefers a Republican-first option in the Senate. If Goecker fails to reach 50% of first-choice votes, the second-choice votes of those who prefer Democratic candidate Lee Hammermeister — expected to finish third — could push Merrick over the top.
On the Kenai Peninsula, current coalition member Sen. Jesse Bjorkman, R-Nikiski, is being challenged by Republican Ben Carpenter, who also prefers a Republican-led majority. Bjorkman led Carpenter in the August primary. A Democrat is running as a third option, and Democratic voters who prefer Bjorkman as a second option could be decisive.
If they’re close, any or all of those three races could be decided on tabulation day. A fourth race could be decided on Election Day. Sen. Scott Kawasaki, D-Fairbanks, is being challenged by Republican Leslie Hajdukovich. Because there are only two candidates, ranked choice voting won’t be involved, unless write-in votes push the first-place finisher below 50%.
Control of the Alaska House could flip or solidify after Tuesday
The Alaska House currently has 22 Republicans, 13 Democrats and five independents.
Thomas Baker, who changed his party affiliation to independent after the legislative session, is still listed as a Republican on the Legislature’s website.
Those legislators are split into a predominantly Republican coalition majority and a predominantly Democratic coalition minority.
Because two Republicans aren’t a member of the majority, Republicans depend on the support of three non-Republicans from rural Alaska districts in order to maintain control.
If mainstream Republicans win contested elections on Tuesday, they could achieve unilateral control. If independents, Democrats and moderate Republicans win, it’s possible that the predominantly Democratic coalition will take back the majority it had for six years until 2022.
In Ketchikan, incumbent independent Rep. Dan Ortiz isn’t running for reelection and is likely to be replaced by Republican Jeremy Bynum, who had just short of 49% of the vote in the August primary election.
That Republican gain could be balanced on the North Slope, where Baker has faced a difficult reelection campaign against two Democrats running against him. Baker had just 29% of the vote in a three-way August primary election.
Republicans are trying to oust Rep. David Eastman, R-Wasilla, with a more mainstream challenger, Republican Jubilee Underwood. Eastman has been excluded from the House majority, and if Underwood were to replace him, it would net a seat for the current majority.
Conversely, Rep. Craig Johnson, R-Anchorage and a member of the current majority, is facing a tough election against coalition-minded Republican Chuck Kopp, a former legislator seeking a return to the House. Kopp beat Johnson by more than 20 percentage points in the August primary, and the two are repeating that race on Tuesday.
Several other races are effectively head-to-head tossups entering Tuesday. In Fairbanks, Democratic Rep. Maxine Dibert is being challenged by Republican Bart LeBon, a former representative whom Dibert defeated two years ago by a small margin.
In Anchorage, Democrat Ted Eischeid beat incumbent Republican Rep. Stanley Wright by 35 votes out of more than 1,200 cast in the August primary after losing to Wright by 72 votes of 3,772 cast in 2022; they’re rerunning their race on Tuesday.
Also in Anchorage, Republican Rep. Julie Coulombe beat independent challenger Walter Featherly by just 121 votes out of more than 3,200 cast in the August primary, and both have been campaigning hard ahead of Tuesday’s vote.
In South Anchorage, independent Ky Holland won a four-way August primary, but Republicans have now consolidated around Republican candidate Lucy Bauer, setting up a head-to-head race to replace incumbent Republican Rep. Laddie Shaw, who is not seeking reelection.
Other potentially close races include more than two candidates and could require ranked choice tabulation to resolve:
- House District 6 in Homer, where Republican Rep. Sarah Vance is being challenged by independent Brent Johnson and Republican Dawson Slaughter
- Anchorage’s House District 15, where Republican Mia Costello is seeking to return to the state House to fill a seat vacated by Republican Rep. Tom McKay. Democrat Denny Wells is challenging her but could have his odds spoiled by perennial candidate Dustin Darden, who is running as a Democrat.
- Republican Rebecca Schwanke is likely the favorite to replace Cronk in Interior Alaska’s House District 36, but she faces three opponents — Democrat Brandon Kowalski, fellow Republican Pam Goode, and Libertarian James Fields, who has suspended his campaign.
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Alaska
“World’s largest undeveloped gold mine” faces legal challenges from Canada and Alaska tribal nations – KRBD
At the river’s mouth
The Southeast Alaska Indigenous Transboundary Commission is worried about the region’s rivers. They are a group of 15 Tlingit, Haida, and Tsimshian nations who came together because they believe mining in British Columbia poses a threat to their spawning salmon and hooligan habitats, like the Unuk and Stikine Rivers.
The transboundary commission’s attention is currently on the Kerr-Sulphurets-Mitchell project, a proposed gold and copper mine at the foot of a glacier just across the Canadian border.
“KSM is on a whole other scale of mining, one of the world’s largest open pit mines, if it’s ever built,” said Guy Archibald, the director of the Southeast Alaska Indigenous Transboundary Commission. “Our tribes and communities are directly downstream. We rely on fish and the food security opportunities that the Unuk provides.”
The KSM Project is being developed by Seabridge Gold. According to the Canadian exploration company, the mine could generate nearly 1,500 jobs and over $30 billion for British Columbia and $60 billion for Canada over its projected 60-ish year lifespan.
For Archibald, the stakes are “Billions of tons of acid-generating waste rock just piled into valleys. Valley fills in direct tributaries to the Unuk River. And so it’s almost inevitable that bad things are gonna happen.”
Mine tailings are the materials left over from the mining process, like acidic rock waste, undesirable metals, and the chemicals and discharge from processing the ore. All of this waste is stored in tailings facilities or dammed ponds until it can organically break down. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, many decommissioned mine tailing facilities are designated as Superfund sites.
Archibald cited the Mount Polley disaster, a 2014 failure at another mine in British Columbia that is widely referred to as one of the worst mining disasters in Canadian history. Canadian news outlet The Narwhal reported that KSM’s tailing ponds would be around 28 times the size of the one that failed at Mount Polley. The Southeast Alaska Indigenous Transboundary Commission estimated that KSM’s tailings ponds would require ongoing maintenance for at least 250 years, long after the mine shutters.
A voice in the process
In July, the British Columbia government issued a finding in the permitting process for the project known as a “Substantially Started Determination.” Under British Columbia’s law, environmental permits for development projects like mines come with an expiration date. According to the British Columbia Environmental Assessment Office, that’s partially because the environmental assessment process is constantly evolving – i.e. new science, new information, new regulations. Once a mine reaches a certain stage in development, though, the province can declare that it is far enough along and has met the environmental permitting requirements to move forward without its environmental “stamp of approval” lapsing.
Part of that environmental assessment process involves public comment and “a legal obligation to consult with Indigenous nations whose interests could be affected by the outcome of a substantially started determination.”
“And yet, the Alaska tribes are not really afforded any kind of voice in how this process works out. So we are trying every way possible to try to be sure that our communities are protected,” said Archibald, alleging that tribes in the transboundary commission weren’t afforded a meaningful seat at the table in that process.
In late November, the transboundary commission and SkeenaWild Conservation Trust filed a legal challenge against the British Columbia government. They’re represented by the Canadian law firm EcoJustice and are arguing that the mine was “rubber stamped” – challenging the premise of the province’s decision that the mine is “substantially started.”
The KSM mine received its environmental assessment a decade ago. EcoJustice attorney Rachel Gutman said that the process has changed since then and the province has a “deeper understanding of a rapidly changing climate” and “threats to salmon populations.”
“There are good reasons why the law has expiration dates for environmental assessments, including ensuring that mega projects like the KSM mine do not proceed based on outdated information,” Gutman said in a press release. “This is particularly important in this case due to the rapidly changing climate in Northern BC.”
The challenge also alleged that the province specifically considered whether the “substantially started determination” would help the mine in its timeline to secure outside funding when it issued the determination.
“We believe it is inappropriate for the [British Columbia Environmental Assessment Office], the agency tasked with assessing the environmental impacts of a project, to consider how their decision might support a company with project funding,” said Greg Knox, the executive director of SkeenaWild.
R. Brent Murphy is Seabridge’s Vice President of Environmental Affairs. In an email to KRBD, he wrote that Seabridge’s legal counsel are preparing to defend the validity of British Columbia’s determination. In his view, the Southeast Alaska tribal commission’s “ultimate goal is to halt all mining and exploration activities in the transboundary region.”
Murphy claimed that mining projects like the KSM aren’t responsible for declines in salmon and hooligan habitats. He chalked them up instead to “changes in ocean conditions, declines in quantity and quality of spawning habitat, and overfishing.”
“There is also a misconception that Alaskans were not engaged during the [environmental assessment] process of the KSM Project,” Murphy said about the transboundary commission’s challenge that tribes weren’t properly consulted in the process. “On the contrary, the BC Environmental Assessment Office actively receives input and feedback from Alaskan regulators, tribal groups, and the Alaskan public for any mining project undergoing the EA process within the transboundary region.”
For Archibald and the transboundary commission, though, those requests for feedback amounted to an empty promise. He called British Columbia’s consultation process for Alaskans “everything short of being meaningful or consent-based at all.”
The Southeast Alaska Transboundary Commission’s challenge, as well as their recent petition to an international human rights commission, hinges on their demand to be afforded the same sway in the consultation process as Canada-based First Nations, a request that has been categorically denied by both British Columbia and the larger Canadian ministry.
There is Canadian legal precedent for U.S.-based tribes to be afforded the same rights to consultation as First Nations protected under the Canadian constitution. That precedent is R. v. Desautel, a 2021 Canadian Supreme Court finding. An indigenous American citizen was tried in Canada’s courts for killing an elk in British Columbia without a hunting license. The defendant lived on a reservation in Washington and argued that he was exercising his Aboriginal right to hunt in the traditional territory of his ancestors.
As Archibald put it, the case forced the Canadian Supreme Court to ask a central question: “Do indigenous, non-resident people of Canada – people who live outside of Canada but have ties to traditional lands within Canada – have any rights to those lands? And the Supreme Court said yes.”
“Given the complex nature of an ecosystem, a productive ecosystem, like the Unuk watershed, and the complex nature of one of the world’s largest mines, what the outcome of that is going to be if it moves forward, is really anybody’s guess,” said Archibald.
In a September opinion piece in the Anchorage Daily News, Murphy struck back at the legal challenge and its supporters categorizing Canada’s decision as a “rubber stamp,” saying that Seabridge had already sunk roughly CAD $1 billion into the project which constitutes substantial progress. He also challenged what he called “widespread misinformation” surrounding the mining industry.
Murphy said that the KSM project met British Columbia’s three main criteria for a “substantial start determination” – work had begun on the mine, they’d spent significant money on construction, and they’d received “the support of our First Nations partners.”
The headwaters
The Tsetsaut Skii km Lax Ha Nation is an Indigenous First Nation in British Columbia that borders the KSM site.
In November, they filed their own legal challenge against British Columbia. Ryan Beaton, who provides legal counsel for the nation, said that the KSM project’s proposed tailings facility is on the nation’s land and the province didn’t properly consult with them either before “essentially greenlighting” the project.
“If we’re going to go ahead with this permitting, and this is going forward, where’s the consultation? Where are the funds to deal with the environmental damage from this?” Beaton asked.
Beaton described Tsetsaut Skii km Lax Ha as a small tribal nation “surrounded by larger, more powerful or more connected First Nations neighbors.”
Those larger First Nations surrounding the Tsetsaut Skii km Lax Ha’s traditional territory are the Tahltan and the Nisg̱a’a. And both nations publicly support the mine.
If the KSM project is built, Seabridge envisions three open-pit mines that will feed a processing facility and a tailings facility to store mine waste. Seabridge anticipates those mines could produce at least 47 million ounces of gold and 7 billion pounds of copper over their lifespan.
“The concern is a huge amount of toxic waste flowing out onto the territory, into the waterways, destroying the fishing for the nation, affecting wildlife,” he said, explaining the nation’s concerns if one of the dams at the tailing facility failed.
For Beaton and the Tsetsaut Skii km Lax Ha, even if all goes according to Seabridge’s plan, some of the damage has already been done.
“Just the construction of the project on its own terms, if everything goes well, has had a huge impact on their hunting territories, their traditional ways of life, huge swaths of forest cut down, so there’s already been major impact,” Beaton said.
The KSM project has also caused particular friction between the Tsetsaut Skii km Lax Ha and their First Nations neighbors. That’s because Beaton said if the project moves ahead, gold and copper aren’t the only things that will be flowing out of it – so will huge sums of money to the Tahltan and the Nisg̱a’a.
The Tahltan and the Nisg̱a’a both signed agreements with Seabridge over the last decade. Publicly, Nisg̱a’a Nation President Eva Clayton has said that projects like Seabridge’s KSM stand to attract investors to First Nations territories in the Golden Triangle and “improve the quality of life of our Nisg̱a’a and Tahltan people.”
Recently, the two nations announced a partnership to “maximize joint opportunities on the Seabridge KSM Project.”
“On behalf of both the Nisg̱a’a Nation and the Tahltan Nation, I would like to acknowledge Seabridge for their support and encouragement,” Tahltan Nation Development Corporation Chair Carol Danielson wrote in a statement at the time, “and their willingness to actively engage and work with our Partnership on their KSM project, the world’s largest undeveloped gold project.”
Neither Tahltan nor Nisg̱a’a leadership responded to requests for comment.
Beaton compared the tailings facility dispute to hearing there was a big construction project happening in your neighborhood and then finding out “all the toilets for the project were going to be built in your backyard while the money flowed elsewhere.”
“When the [KSM project] is over, the Nisg̱a’a and Tahltan get to go home and the Skii km Lax Ha, this small First Nation, is stuck with a huge waste facility on its territory, and that is not the way Indigenous consultation should go,” said Beaton.
The Tsetsaut Skii km Lax Ha aren’t strangers to mining, though. They’ve worked with other mining projects in the past and recently signed an agreement with a different company for a neighboring mine.
“Our nation is certainly not anti industry,” said Beaton, adding that the nation does see the benefits mining could have on the province and their communities. “But it’s got to be done responsibly and in a way that respects both the nation’s rights but also the environmental concerns that they have.”
“[Its] the ‘Asserted’ territory of the Tsetsaut Skii km Lax Ha,” said Seabridges’ R. Brent Murphy about the First Nation’s claim that the land for the tailing facility belongs to them. “While they have sought recognition of their ‘exclusive’ rights to this area, it is currently not recognized by the government.”
The federal government of Canada marks the site of the proposed tailings facility as traditional Tahltan territory.
In their legal challenge, the Tsetsaut Skii km Lax Ha allege that this comes from a complex history of misinterpreted treaties and shaky ethnographic accounts that essentially, as Beaton puts it, “writes the Skii km Lax Ha out of their own history on their own territory.”
This assertion is backed by a 2021 report from British Columbia’s Attorney General, as well as a 2017 environmental assessment of a different mine, that supports the Tsetsaut Skii km Lax Ha’s exclusive rights to the area where the tailings facility will be located.
“We’re not asking them to take our word for it,” Beaton said. “We’re asking the province to act on their own assessment.”
Similar to the legal challenge EcoJustice filed on behalf of Alaska tribes across the border, the Tsetsaut Skii km Lax Ha’s legal complaint is lobbied against the provincial government. According to Beaton, that’s because the small First Nation is alleging that the province officially recognized their territory but because of their size and their lack of support for the KSM project, their constitutional right to consultation was minimized.
“The province is really picking and choosing who gets rights, and that is not appropriate. It’s really colonialism in action,” said Karen McCluskey, Beaton’s co-counsel representing the Tsetsaut Skii km Lax Ha.
For Seabridge, the could-be world’s largest gold mine passed its comprehensive seven-year environmental review process and according to Murphy, the company plans to invest millions of dollars annually into ongoing water quality reviews. For him, the province’s determination just reflects that Seabridge has done its part in making sure the project is safe and sustainable. He also continuously pointed to the support of their Indigenous partners – the Tahltan and Nisg̱a’a – and how they’ve allowed the project to move forward on their ancestral lands.
“The benefits are flowing to neighboring First Nations, to the government, and to industry. You know, the Tsetsaut Skii km Lax Ha nation has said they would like to have no dump on their land. That’s their position,” Beaton said.
The ball is currently in British Columbia’s court to determine how long they’ll need to respond to these legal challenges on both sides of the border. Beaton estimated the whole process could take about a year.
For the KSM mine, Seabridge is hoping to solicit a partner for the venture, another mining company big enough to build and operate a mine this scale. After that, they anticipate construction on the mine would take about five years.
Alaska
2 dead, 2 injured in Seward Hwy head-on collision
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) – A head-on collision involving two vehicles has left two dead, and two injured along the Seward Highway at mile point 82 near Portage, according to the Anchorage Police Dept. (APD).
At around 4:11 p.m. Anchorage Police Department, Whittier Police Department, Anchorage Fire Department, and Girdwood Fire Department responded to a collision with reported injuries.
Authorities investigated the scene and determined it was a head-on collision and the Whittier Police Department confirmed two were deceased.
The other two individuals involved sustained injuries but APD says it is unclear at this time if they are life-threatening.
APD reported at the time of publication that first responders remain on the scene and are managing the situation so travelers should expect delays.
The inbound and outbound lanes of the Seward Highway initially closed around 5:30 p.m. and there is no estimation as to when they will open back up.
See a spelling or grammar error? Report it to web@ktuu.com
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Alaska
Pediatrician Chosen for Alaska Mental Health Trust CEO – Alaska Business Magazine
“I am honored with the opportunity to lead an organization that has such a unique and important role in supporting Trust beneficiaries and the organizations that serve and support them,” says Wilson. “I look forward to working with the talented staff at the Trust Authority and the Trust Land Office who share my passion for improving the lives of Trust beneficiaries.”
Wilson grew up in Alaska and, in recent years, returned to the state following her medical career. She originally worked as a licensed pediatrician before advancing into leadership positions at Permanente Medical Group, including Executive Medical Director and President of The Southeast Permanente Medical Group in Atlanta. Wilson brings to the Trust extensive executive experience coupled with a thorough understanding of the systems of care that serve and support Trust beneficiaries.
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