On Election Day, polling stations are scheduled to be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m., and the first initial results should be posted online about 9:15 p.m., based on prior schedules.
In the state’s closest races, a winner won’t become apparent until Nov. 20, when the state tabulates the results of its ranked choice elections.
The closest races likely will include the state’s U.S. House election and the ballot measure seeking to repeal ranked choice voting.
Carol Beecher, director of the Division of Elections, said by email that results updates will likely come on a similar schedule to 2022. That year, the first results were posted at 9:11 p.m. and were updated until shortly after 2 a.m. the following morning. Election Day results were again updated about 4 p.m. the following day.
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Election Day results will include ballots cast on Election Day, plus early votes (those given at polling stations where voters present an ID) cast by the end of the day on Halloween.
Some absentee votes (usually sent by mail and subject to later ID verification) will also be included, but we won’t know how many — that’s determined by how quickly the state review board operates.
If a mailed-in absentee ballot was postmarked on or before Election Day, state law allows it to be counted if it arrives on or before Nov. 15 (if mailed from within the United States) or Nov. 20 (if mailed internationally). Historically, most absentee ballots arrive within one week of Election Day.
As more absentee ballots arrive and are counted, the Division of Elections is scheduled to update election results on Nov. 12 and Nov. 15.
Those updates will only include voters’ first choices. If a race has three or more candidates and none of them have at least 50% of the first-choice votes, the Division of Elections will use ranked choice voting to determine a winner.
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On Nov. 20, the last-place finisher will be eliminated, and voters who picked that person will have their votes go to their second choice. If they don’t have a second choice, their ballot will be “exhausted” and not count for any of the remaining candidates.
The elimination process will continue until only two candidates remain, and the person with the greatest number of votes will be declared the winner.
The Division of Elections could offer an immediate ranked choice tabulation and update it as more ballots arrive, but when ranked choice voting was established by voters in 2020, the division’s then-director said that might be confusing for voters, and as a matter of policy, the division does only one tabulation.
U.S. House race result is likely to wait
That wait for tabulation could mean a wait for Alaska’s close-run U.S. House election, where Democratic incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola is being challenged by Republican Nick Begich, Alaskan Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe and imprisoned, out-of-state Democratic candidate Eric Hafner.
In the August primary election, Peltola had more than 50% of the vote, but in the months since then, polling indicates that the race has tightened, with Begich’s odds helped by the fact that two trailing Republicans — including Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom — withdrew after the primary.
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Howe and Hafner aren’t expected to receive many first choice votes, but if the margin between Peltola and Begich remains small, their supporters’ second-choice votes could be decisive once tabulation takes place.
Eight candidates in the presidential election
Alaska’s local elections have no more than four listed candidates, but the presidential election has eight, which makes it possible that an official winner won’t be declared until Nov. 20.
Republicans have won every presidential election in Alaska since 1964, and Republican candidate Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win Alaska this year as well.
With eight candidates in the race, it’s possible that Trump fails to exceed 50% of the first-choice votes, leaving the race to be decided until the ranked choice tabulation.
Ballot measures and judges could be decided early
Alaska’s two ballot measures aren’t subject to ranked choice tabulation — they’re a simple up or down vote, which means that we don’t have to wait until the Nov. 20 tabulation day.
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Preelection polling presented to the Alaska Chamber of Commerce in October showed that Ballot Measure 1 — which would increase the state’s minimum wage, mandate sick leave and ban mandatory political and religious meetings — has a significant lead among voters. It’s expected to pass easily, and Election Day results will reveal whether that expectation holds true.
Ballot Measure 2 — which would repeal the state’s ranked choice general election and open primary election system — is too close to predict, polling indicates. Polling earlier in the summer found that “yes” to the repeal was ahead, but that’s changed, with “no” having a lead more recently. It’s still within the margin of error, however.
While it’s possible that Election Day results will give yes or no a definitive lead, it’s more likely that we won’t know for certain until about a week after Election Day, when more absentee ballots are counted.
Nineteen judges are also on the ballot statewide. Voters can choose to vote yes or no on whether to retain them. It’s extraordinarily unusual for voters to reject a judge, but there is a campaign to evict one of them, Adolf Zeman of Anchorage, for a legal decision on the state’s correspondence school program. No polling is available for that election, which is one to watch on Election Day.
Will polls operate correctly?
The Alaska Division of Elections has struggled this year with a variety of missteps, including the failure to open all polling stations on time during the primary election.
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Two years ago, ballots from a handful of remote towns failed to reach Juneau after Election Day, meaning that they weren’t counted in the ranked choice tally. Only voters’ first choices were considered.
Ahead of the general election, there’s already been one significant problem: Absentee voters in three Southwest Alaska towns received the wrong ballots, and more than 90 had to revote as a result.
Will Election Day voters differ from advance voters?
Four years ago, 361,400 Alaskans voted in the 2020 presidential election. This year, Michael McDonald, a Florida-based political scientist and an expert in voter turnout, expects slightly lower turnout and about 355,000 votes cast.
Through Friday, 95,415 people had already cast ballots, representing more than a quarter of the expected total turnout. Early voting — done in person, with IDs verified on site — has set an all-time record.
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Early and absentee voters combined have been disproportionately Republican. Altogether, more than 33% of advance votes through Nov. 1 came from registered Republicans. Statewide, Republicans make up just under 24% of registered voters.
Registered Democrats have also been voting in unusually large numbers — they represent over 12% of registered voters but more than 17% of votes cast so far.
Election Day results will determine whether those figures represent a larger trend or not.
Conservative Republicans are likely to gain in the state Senate — but how much?
The Alaska Senate is governed by a 17-member supermajority coalition that includes nine Democrats and eight Republicans.
One member of that coalition, Sen. Click Bishop, R-Fairbanks, isn’t running for re-election, and his seat is likely to be taken by either Republican Mike Cronk or independent Savannah Fletcher. Alaskan Independence Party candidate Bert Williams is also running.
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Cronk is inclined toward a Republican-led majority, rather than the current balanced coalition, while Fletcher favors the status quo. Cronk beat Fletcher by a small margin in the August primary.
In Eagle River, coalition Republican Sen. Kelly Merrick is being challenged by Republican Jared Goecker, who also prefers a Republican-first option in the Senate. If Goecker fails to reach 50% of first-choice votes, the second-choice votes of those who prefer Democratic candidate Lee Hammermeister — expected to finish third — could push Merrick over the top.
On the Kenai Peninsula, current coalition member Sen. Jesse Bjorkman, R-Nikiski, is being challenged by Republican Ben Carpenter, who also prefers a Republican-led majority. Bjorkman led Carpenter in the August primary. A Democrat is running as a third option, and Democratic voters who prefer Bjorkman as a second option could be decisive.
If they’re close, any or all of those three races could be decided on tabulation day. A fourth race could be decided on Election Day. Sen. Scott Kawasaki, D-Fairbanks, is being challenged by Republican Leslie Hajdukovich. Because there are only two candidates, ranked choice voting won’t be involved, unless write-in votes push the first-place finisher below 50%.
Control of the Alaska House could flip or solidify after Tuesday
The Alaska House currently has 22 Republicans, 13 Democrats and five independents.
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Thomas Baker, who changed his party affiliation to independent after the legislative session, is still listed as a Republican on the Legislature’s website.
Those legislators are split into a predominantly Republican coalition majority and a predominantly Democratic coalition minority.
Because two Republicans aren’t a member of the majority, Republicans depend on the support of three non-Republicans from rural Alaska districts in order to maintain control.
If mainstream Republicans win contested elections on Tuesday, they could achieve unilateral control. If independents, Democrats and moderate Republicans win, it’s possible that the predominantly Democratic coalition will take back the majority it had for six years until 2022.
In Ketchikan, incumbent independent Rep. Dan Ortiz isn’t running for reelection and is likely to be replaced by Republican Jeremy Bynum, who had just short of 49% of the vote in the August primary election.
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That Republican gain could be balanced on the North Slope, where Baker has faced a difficult reelection campaign against two Democrats running against him. Baker had just 29% of the vote in a three-way August primary election.
Republicans are trying to oust Rep. David Eastman, R-Wasilla, with a more mainstream challenger, Republican Jubilee Underwood. Eastman has been excluded from the House majority, and if Underwood were to replace him, it would net a seat for the current majority.
Conversely, Rep. Craig Johnson, R-Anchorage and a member of the current majority, is facing a tough election against coalition-minded Republican Chuck Kopp, a former legislator seeking a return to the House. Kopp beat Johnson by more than 20 percentage points in the August primary, and the two are repeating that race on Tuesday.
Several other races are effectively head-to-head tossups entering Tuesday. In Fairbanks, Democratic Rep. Maxine Dibert is being challenged by Republican Bart LeBon, a former representative whom Dibert defeated two years ago by a small margin.
In Anchorage, Democrat Ted Eischeid beat incumbent Republican Rep. Stanley Wright by 35 votes out of more than 1,200 cast in the August primary after losing to Wright by 72 votes of 3,772 cast in 2022; they’re rerunning their race on Tuesday.
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Also in Anchorage, Republican Rep. Julie Coulombe beat independent challenger Walter Featherly by just 121 votes out of more than 3,200 cast in the August primary, and both have been campaigning hard ahead of Tuesday’s vote.
In South Anchorage, independent Ky Holland won a four-way August primary, but Republicans have now consolidated around Republican candidate Lucy Bauer, setting up a head-to-head race to replace incumbent Republican Rep. Laddie Shaw, who is not seeking reelection.
Other potentially close races include more than two candidates and could require ranked choice tabulation to resolve:
House District 6 in Homer, where Republican Rep. Sarah Vance is being challenged by independent Brent Johnson and Republican Dawson Slaughter
Anchorage’s House District 15, where Republican Mia Costello is seeking to return to the state House to fill a seat vacated by Republican Rep. Tom McKay. Democrat Denny Wells is challenging her but could have his odds spoiled by perennial candidate Dustin Darden, who is running as a Democrat.
Republican Rebecca Schwanke is likely the favorite to replace Cronk in Interior Alaska’s House District 36, but she faces three opponents — Democrat Brandon Kowalski, fellow Republican Pam Goode, and Libertarian James Fields, who has suspended his campaign.
Alaska State Capitol in Juneau on Monday, May 18, 2026. (Bill Roth / ADN)
JUNEAU — Lawmaking is an uncertain venture.
Of the 685 bills introduced in the two-year legislative cycle that began last year, 114 passed. That’s about one out of every six bills.
Leading up to the May 20 end of the regular session, lawmakers passed key legislation, including a balanced budget, education funding and public safety reforms.
But plenty of measures fell to the wayside throughout the session, including a fiscal plan from Gov. Mike Dunleavyand bills to give Alaskans the “right to repair” electronics, ban police officers from wearing masks on duty and scrap daylight saving time in Alaska.
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If a lawmaker chooses to take up a failed bill in future years, they must start from zero, going through the entire committee process anew.
“You’re not supposed to get married to your bill, and this is one of the reasons why,” Anchorage Democratic Rep. Carolyn Hall said, describing a failed effort to implement paid parental leave.
Here are several measures that failed to pass this year.
A fiscal plan
Alaska lawmakers have been talking about a long-term fiscal plan for years. Dunleavy, in his eighth and final year in office, proposed his version of such a plan in January, looking to stabilize the state’s budgets in the long run after years of proposed deficit spending.
But Dunleavy’s ideas, headlined by a new statewide sales tax, were promptly rejected by lawmakers, who held only a handful of hearings about the governor’s bill before abandoning it.
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Senate Resources Committee members countered Dunleavy’s proposed plan with a revenue package that included a broad rewrite of Alaska’s complex oil tax structure.
But the bill never made it out of the Senate Finance Committee.
In an unexpected March floor vote, Senate majority members adopted one of the provisions from their revenue package: applying the state’s corporate income tax to privately held oil and gas companies that currently pay no such tax. That could have raised an additional $100 million annually, according to some estimates.
But the measure was rejected in the House, and died at the end of the session. With a new governor next year, Alaska lawmakers will begin the revenue conversation from square one.
Electronic pull-tabs
An effort to legalize electronic pull-tabs in Alaska failed in the final days of the session.
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The legislation was sponsored by Sen. Jesse Bjorkman, a Nikiski Republican who said it was needed for Alaska nonprofits that depend on revenue from charitable gaming.
“My reason for taking up this legislation was we had multiple kids’ sports charities and nonprofits on the Kenai that are looking to revitalize their ability to make money through charitable gaming,” said Bjorkman.
Dunleavy in 2023 first introduced a bill to legalize the electronic version of the paper pull-tabs. Revenue from pull-tabs purchases help subsidize Alaska nonprofits under existing law.
This year’s bill passed the Senate earlier this month, but never made it to a floor vote in the House. Bjorkman said that’s because of concerns raised by owners of businesses that sell pull-tabs.
“Some for-profit businesses that operate in the charitable gaming space felt uncomfortable with the focus of the bill being maximizing revenues for charities and nonprofits, and they felt that some of their comparative advantage in that regulated charitable gaming market was going to be reduced,” said Bjorkman.
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Asked whether he’d introduce the bill again in a future session, Bjorkman said that depends on the policy priorities of Alaska’s next governor.
“Things have to line up in order for it to move forward, so if the new governor is amenable to looking at electronic pull-tabs as an option to revive revenue for charities and nonprofits, that would be great, but if the governor isn’t agreeable, it’d be pretty hard to work on a big project like that again, if we have to try to convince a new governor or override a veto,” Bjorkman said.
A repair technician solders a computer chip from a motherboard on April 2, 2025, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Mingson Lau)
‘Right to repair’ bill
Lawmakers considered a bill that would establish a “right to repair” for consumer electronics in Alaska.
The bill would have required manufacturers to provide consumers and independent repair shops with access to replacement parts, repair tools, software and manuals for products like phones, laptops and other digital devices.
The bill narrowed in scope as it moved from committee, with lawmakers amending it to only apply to consumer electronics, and not large equipment, as was previously included in the bill.
The measure passed the Senate earlier this month but stalled in the House.
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Sen. Forrest Dunbar, an Anchorage Democrat, said House leadership decided not to move the bill to a floor vote, citing concerns that it would face too much debate to warrant attempting to pass in the final days of session. Rep. Garret Nelson, a Sutton Republican, planned to introduce a number of amendments to the bill.
“It was the closing days of the session, time is at a premium,” Dunbar said.
Nelson said his intention was not to kill the bill, but that he had a few amendments to address issues he saw with it, including the wide scope of products included under the legislation and potential violations of intellectual property rights.
“I did talk with leadership and I said, ‘If this bill comes forward, I’m going to have amendments. And I’m not gonna back down on this because, the ramifications of this bill, the way that it was written — the language was bad,’” Nelson said.
Dunbar said he intends to bring the bill back next year.
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Mature cannabis plants flower at Supherb, a marijuana cultivation business and retail shop on Sept. 10, 2024 in Anchorage. (Loren Holmes / ADN archive)
Marijuana taxation update
Marijuana is currently taxed at $50 per ounce of bud, levied on cultivators.
House members considered a bill this session to transition that structure to a 6% sales tax instead, which would move the tax burden from producers to consumers. Supporters of the change argued the state’s current tax rate on marijuana cultivators is too high and changing how it’s taxed would boost the struggling industry.
Ultimately, lawmakers could not agree on what the new tax structure should be.
House leadership decided not to bring the bill before a floor vote because there were disagreements within both caucuses and differing opinions on what tax structure was ideal, according to bill sponsor Rep. Ashley Carrick, a Fairbanks Democrat.
Carrick said she plans to talk with stakeholders in the marijuana industry and further develop the bill, with plans to reintroduce it next session.
“I think that the current excise tax model is killing the industry and the industry is pretty clear that it’s not sustainable,” Carrick said.
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Constitutional amendment for dedicated education fund
A Senate resolution would have proposed an amendment to the Alaska Constitution to allow the state to create a dedicated fund for public education.
Resolutions to amend the constitution must first receive approval from two-thirds of the House and Senate before going to Alaska voters.
Alaska’s constitution generally prohibits funds dedicated to specific priorities or projects so lawmakers retain flexibility over yearly budgeting, but the amendment would carve out an exception for education spending.
Supporters said the change could provide more stable and predictable school funding after years of annual political battles over education budgets. Opponents argued that it could open the door for more dedicated funding measures in the future. The measure itself did not establish a new tax or revenue stream, but it would allow lawmakers to later dedicate certain revenues exclusively to schools.
The resolution passed the Senate 17-3 and was scheduled to come before the House on the final day of the session, but ultimately was not voted on.
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Constitutional amendment to ease some veto overrides
Lawmakers put forward a resolution to propose amending the Alaska Constitution to lower the threshold for overriding a veto of spending and revenue bills.
The constitution requires a three-fourths vote of the Legislature to override budget-related vetoes, while ordinary policy bills require only a two-thirds vote. The amendment would make the threshold the same for both categories.
Supporters, including the resolution’s sponsor, Anchorage Democrat Sen. Matt Claman, argued Alaska’s current standard gives governors unusually strong budget power and makes it too difficult for lawmakers to restore funding after vetoes.
The resolution passed the Senate 14-6, garnering exactly the two-thirds majority needed to pass a proposed constitutional amendment. But the bill did not receive a hearing in House Finance Committee, its last stop before a House floor vote.
Mental health crisis services funding
House members proposed a funding system for behavioral health crisis services in Alaska. The proposal would fund the national 988 suicide and crisis hotline and other behavioral health treatment systems.
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Supporters said Alaska lacks enough long-term funding for crisis response infrastructure, especially in rural areas, and argued stronger behavioral health systems could reduce strain on hospitals and law enforcement.
The bill ultimately stalled in the House Finance Committee before coming to a floor vote.
A one-month dosage of hormonal birth control pills is displayed in 2016. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File)
Requiring insurance to cover yearlong birth control supply
Lawmakers again introduced legislation requiring insurers to cover up to a 12-month supply of prescription birth control at one time. A similar bill passed the Legislature two years ago but was vetoed Dunleavy, who said that the bill was “bad policy” and that contraceptives are already widely available.
Supporters say allowing patients to receive a full year’s supply improves consistent contraceptive access, especially for people in rural Alaska or those who face transportation and pharmacy barriers.
The bill got the green light from the Senate Health and Social Services Committee, but never came up for a hearing in the Senate Labor and Commerce Committee.
Federal agents look on as protesters gather outside the Bishop Henry Whipple Federal Building on Jan. 8, 2026, in Minneapolis, Minn. (AP Photo/Tom Baker, File)
Banning on-duty law enforcement officers from wearing masks
House members considered a bill that would have prohibited on-duty law enforcement officers in Alaska from masking their faces, with exceptions for situations such as medical protection or subfreezing temperatures.
Rep. Sara Hannan, a Juneau Democrat, introduced the bill at the start of session in the wake of Trump administration immigration raids and arrests across the country, during which agents from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement masked their faces to hide their identity from the public.
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Supporters of the bill said visible identification is important for public trust and accountability, especially during protests or crowd-control situations like the circumstances leading up to two high-profile shootings of U.S. citizens in Minneapolis.
Opponents, such as Anchorage Police Chief Sean Case, said the bill sent a message to law enforcement that they cannot govern themselves, and he said that clear identification is already a practice among Alaska law enforcement.
The legislation ultimately stalled in the House Judiciary Committee, its second committee.
The sun reflects off Turnagain Arm on Oct. 30, 2023. (Bill Roth / ADN)
Daylight saving time
The latest of many efforts to eliminate the twice-a-year clock change stalled in the House in the final days of the session, after passing the Senate.
The key question hampering progress on the policy change: What would it mean for Alaska to be two hours removed from Pacific time for half the year? For bankers and broadcasters whose work depends on East Coast hours, the question is pivotal.
Some lawmakers see a solution in conditioning the elimination of daylight saving time on moving Alaska to the same time zone as the West Coast, an action that can only be taken by the federal government.
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It wouldn’t be the first overhaul for Alaska’s time zones. Until the 1980s, the state was divided into four zones.
Until lawmakers can reach agreement on whether Anchorage residents can tolerate a winter sunrise at noon, expect the twice-a-year clock changes to remain.
Alaska’s most recent Democratic governor passes the mantle to a new generation of leadershipGubernatorial candidate Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.Image-Ballotmedia
SITKA, ALASKA — Tuesday, Democratic gubernatorial candidate and former state representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins received the endorsement of former Alaska Governor Tony Knowles (D).
Throughout his decade in the state legislature, Kreiss-Tomkins showcased his ability to foster bipartisan cooperation, advocate for rural Alaska, and craft forward-thinking, practical solutions — qualities that distinguished Gov. Knowles’ eight-year tenure as Alaska’s chief executive.
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Gov. Knowles’ endorsement represents a generational change in Alaska, passing the mantle of forward-thinking, bipartisan leadership at a time when a majority of Alaskans feel our state is going in the wrong direction.
As the last Democrat to win the governorship, Gov. Knowles’ sole endorsement is also a vote of confidence that JKT is the only Democratic candidate who can win in November. JKT combines a record of electoral overperformance in a Trump-voting district — five election cycles of proven crossover appeal to independent and Republican voters — with a change message that is exciting the Democratic grassroots, drawing young Alaskans and new parents to campaign events, and breaking fundraising records.
In announcing the endorsement, Gov. Knowles said:
For the past eight years, Alaska has faced a barrage of challenges – an underfunded education system, loss of health care, fiscal instability, and an exodus of skilled workers and families from the state. At the same time, the current administration failed to address these problems, much less move the state forward. The land of opportunity we know and love seems lost in the shuffle.
While the decisions coming out of the Governor’s office in Juneau affect everyone, those most impacted are the current generation who will be living with the results long after many of us are gone. That’s why I am endorsing Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins for Governor. He brings a fresh perspective to the office without forgetting his roots as a life-long Alaskan. He represents a new generation of leadership grounded in his decade in the state legislature. He has a track record of bringing people together and knows what it takes to get things done.
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Take it from me, winning statewide elections is difficult, but JKT has what it takes to run a successful campaign by presenting a vision for Alaska that will bring lasting change to our state and provide opportunities for all of us.
“Tony and Susan Knowles have dedicated their lives to serving Alaska. Their confidence and trust in my vision for our state’s future means the world to me,” said Kreiss-Tomkins. “The lessons from his administration are more relevant than ever. We need that same commitment to fiscal responsibility and that same focus on all Alaskans.”
“Growing up in Sitka,” continued Kreiss-Tomkins, “ Governor Knowles was an iconic political figure. I remember first seeing him speak when I was a freshman at Sitka High School, when he came to Sitka for a campaign visit. He was a governor for all of Alaska, both rural and urban, and governed with integrity and grace. Tony and Susan are role models whose legacy I strive to live up to.”
Gov. Knowles’ endorsement adds to JKT’s growing momentum, including over 45 endorsements from elected leaders from Kodiak to Kotzebue and Anchorage to Sitka.
Oil majors are rediscovering Alaska amid the unprecedented oil and gas crunch caused by the war in the Middle East. Previously considered a sort of toxic drilling destination, the northernmost state is now returning to the spotlight as a source of secure supply.
In early May, the Bureau of Land Management launched a lease sale for 625 tracts across about 5.5 million acres in the National Petroleum Reserve. The sale attracted record bids totaling $163 million, from companies including Exxon, Repsol, ConocoPhillips, Santos, and Shell.
“It feels like a bit of the Alaska renaissance,” ConocoPhillips chief executive Ryan Lance said recently, as quoted by Bloomberg. “When you think about the strategic importance of where we are going to find the conventional oil to satisfy the growing demand around the world, people are coming back to places like Alaska. So it does very much feel like back to the future.” Trump’s Iran Signals Send Oil Markets Into Chaos
Conoco, and fellow bidder in the recent lease sale Santos, are the companies engaged in the only two recent oil and gas projects to start in Alaska. Conoco runs the Willow project, which was greenlit by President Biden in what enraged his environmentalist voters at the time, and Santos recently launched commercial production at the Pikka project.
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The Bureau of Land Management approved Conoco’s 160,000-bpd Willow project in the National Petroleum Reserve of Alaska in late 2020. Government officials hailed the project as a job creator and a guarantee that oil will continue to flow along the Trans Alaska Pipeline. The Pikka project, for its part, is seen adding some 80,000 barrels daily to Alaska’s total output by the third quarter of this year.
The legacy producing region used to pump 2 million barrels daily about twenty years ago, at the peak of its exploitation. Now, this has fallen to below 600,000 barrels daily as environmentalist organizations stage pressure campaigns to limit exploration in ecologically sensitive areas, and costs increasingly look unappealing compared with the shale patch. In evidence that everything is relative, however, the costs of Alaska exploration now look palatable.
“What we’re now looking at is a gold rush mentality,” a senior activist from the Natural Resources Defense Council told Bloomberg this month. Indeed, there is a gold rush mentality in the energy industry now as oil and gas have suddenly become scarce commodities, with an estimated 14 to 15 million barrels of crude in daily supply gone for the observable future. This has made replacement a matter of the utmost urgency—and not just over the short term, as evidenced by the return of Big Oil majors that had previously left, presumably for good.
“What surprised us in the lease sale wasn’t only the dollar levels, but the new or returning entrants, like Shell and Exxon,” Bruce Dingeman, Santos vice president and head of the Australian company’s Alaska operations, said in comments on the recent lease sale, also quoted by Bloomberg. “That was a vote of confidence for the geology and the play, but it was also a vote of confidence that the regulatory reform is going to allow for responsible development to continue.”
This responsible development will now include liquefied natural gas: interest in the Alaska LNG export project has spiked since the war in the Middle East choked 20% of global LNG supply and sent Asian buyers scrambling for expensive spot cargoes. Previously considered rather costly, with a price tag of some $40 billion, Alaska LNG now looks quite attractive as a source of long-term, secure supply. And Alaska looks like an energy hotspot once again, contrary to expectations that the future of oil and gas is shale only.