Science
The $8 Billion Children’s Vaccine Fund R.F.K. Jr. Would Oversee

When President Bill Clinton worked with a bipartisan Congress to enact a federal program to guarantee vaccines for poor children, they agreed that the authority over buying shots from drug makers should rest with the health secretary. The bill’s drafters did not consider that an extremely vocal critic of childhood vaccines would emerge as a nominee for the role.
That critic, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., comes before the Senate for confirmation hearings this week. If confirmed, he would have the power to limit or even cut off contracts with the makers of vaccines for more than half the nation’s children under the $8 billion dollar Vaccines for Children program.
The program has been credited with raising national vaccination rates and protects nearly 38 million low-income and working-class children from diseases like polio, measles, whooping cough and chickenpox.
Mr. Kennedy has said he would not take vaccines away from anyone, but he has a long history of questioning vaccine safety. The far-reaching authority he would wield over vaccine policy has become increasingly worrisome for public health experts, researchers and lawmakers from both parties.
Some architects of the program are trying to persuade senators to oppose his nomination.
“I think he’s dangerous to children’s health,” Donna E. Shalala, Mr. Clinton’s health secretary and a former Democratic congresswoman, said in an interview. She said she had spoken to Republican senators who expressed uneasiness about Mr. Kennedy, but would not name them.
Confirmation hearings for Mr. Kennedy will begin on Wednesday before the Senate Finance Committee, and continue on Thursday before the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. The back-to-back sessions will give senators of both parties an opportunity to ask Mr. Kennedy pointed questions about how he would oversee the nation’s large health agencies and vaccine policies.
Lawmakers have already begun asking questions about what authority the health secretary would have over vaccines. At a round table on vaccine policy held by Senator Bernie Sanders, Independent of Vermont, last week, Senator Lisa Blunt Rochester, Democrat of Delaware, asked: “What are the protections and what are the ways that someone could come in and have an impact on reducing vaccines use?”
Experts told the senators that the authority included exerting power over vaccine approvals and using the prominent position possibly to raise fears or state things that are untrue.
A spokeswoman for Mr. Kennedy, Katie Miller, declined to respond directly to a question about Mr. Kennedy’s view of the children’s program.
For decades, Mr. Kennedy has sown doubts about the safety of vaccines and their ingredients. In 2021, he petitioned federal officials to revoke authorization of all coronavirus vaccines at a time when thousands of Americans were dying each week from Covid.
Mr. Kennedy has also worked for years on lawsuits claiming that Merck’s vaccine against HPV, a leading cause of cervical cancer, caused injuries. Records released in advance of the confirmation hearings also show that he plans to keep his financial stake in that vaccine litigation if he is confirmed.
His activism has made lawmakers in both parties uneasy. Several Republican senators, including Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, have suggested they are on the fence about how to vote.
Mr. McConnell, a polio survivor and former Republican leader, has said that anyone who engages in “efforts to undermine public confidence in proven cures” will face difficulty in getting Senate confirmation. Mr. Cassidy, a doctor and chairman of the HELP Committee, has not said how he will vote. Ms. Murkowski told CNN that she had concerns, adding, “Vaccines are important.”
The Vaccines for Children program was created in response to measles outbreaks that disproportionately affected poor children who could not afford vaccinations. It now protects against 19 diseases, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The law that established the program gives the health secretary power over contracts to buy millions of vaccine doses, including the authority to enter into, modify or decline the agreements. Drugmakers have delivered 71.5 billion doses to about 37,000 medical providers throughout the United States and its territories since the program’s inception.
Federal officials “control the whole means of supply and distribution,” according to Sara Rosenbaum, a professor emerita of health law and policy at George Washington University, who was asked by the Clinton administration to build the program.
“Who would have ever thought that it was a problem giving the secretary this kind of power?” she asked.
Some of the program’s defenders worry that just talking about the vaccines program might put it in jeopardy if Mr. Kennedy takes charge.
“Folks are very nervous about speaking these things out loud because they don’t want them to happen,” said Richard Hughes IV, a lawyer who represents vaccine makers and is a lecturer at George Washington University. “But these are things that could very well happen.”
Lawyers who specialize in vaccine policy pointed to other areas where the nation’s health secretary has authority over vaccines. One is the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program, which was set up in 1986 to shield vaccine makers from liability and to create a court system to compensate people harmed by vaccines.
Though Mr. Kennedy has suggested the liability shield provides incentives to vaccine makers to cut corners, he would not have authority to remove it — that lies with Congress. However, the health secretary can add injuries to a table of harms presumed to be caused by vaccines. The secretary can also add or remove vaccines from the court’s purview.
As an official above the Food and Drug Administration in the executive chain of command, the secretary could push the agency to pause or revoke the approval of established vaccines or to withhold approval from those seeking authorization.
“Those are real possibilities,” said Denise Hill, an Iowa lawyer who specializes in vaccine law. “And if you’d asked me five, 10 years ago, I would say it’s never going to happen, but now I can’t say that with any certainty.”
Ms. Hill said it would also be possible for the Trump administration to try to place conditions on the funds for the children’s vaccine program, such as dropping its mandate for students entering kindergarten to be immunized.
The secretary would also have the authority over an influential advisory panel at the C.D.C. called the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices or A.C.I.P. The committee could be disbanded, according to Mr. Hughes. The secretary could also revisit vaccine-safety matters and reject the committee’s recommendations.
That committee tends to influence state-level policy, doctors and private insurers. But it has more direct authority over which vaccines are distributed by the children’s program. Dr. Walter Orenstein, who ran the C.D.C.’s immunization programs when the children’s program was started, said he was concerned that Mr. Kennedy could change the makeup of the committee.
“There is the potential that they could really put into the A.C.I.P. a substantial number of anti-vaccine people, and that would then have some potentially negative effects, in terms of changing current recommendations,” Dr. Orenstein said. “It could mean vaccines wouldn’t be provided through the Vaccines for Children program.”
Ms. Rosenbaum, who helped create the system, said Medicaid covered vaccines and the cost of administering them decades ago. But even so, many doctors did not want to go to the trouble to pay in advance to keep vaccines stocked in their offices.
Ms. Rosenbaum said the system they built was revolutionary in that it empowered the health secretary to negotiate prices with vaccine makers and have the doses shipped directly to thousands of providers.
The program has been expanded to cover working class families above the Medicaid income limits who rely on CHIP, or the Children’s Health Insurance Program. Those programs cover about 38 million infants, children and adolescents, including those who rely on Native American health systems.
Thirty years on, Ms. Rosenbaum said, as Mr. Kennedy faces confirmation, people familiar with the program have assumed it may be a target if he is confirmed. “People haven’t reacted with alarm for no reason,” she said.

Science
Masaki Kashiwara, Japanese Mathematician, Wins 2025 Abel Prize

Masaki Kashiwara, a Japanese mathematician, received this year’s Abel Prize, which aspires to be the equivalent of the Nobel Prize in math. Dr. Kashiwara’s highly abstract work combined algebra, geometry and differential equations in surprising ways.
The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, which manages the Abel Prize, announced the honor on Wednesday morning.
“First of all, he has solved some open conjectures — hard problems that have been around,” said Helge Holden, chairman of the prize committee. “And second, he has opened new avenues, connecting areas that were not known to be connected before. This is something that always surprises mathematicians.”
Mathematicians use connections between different areas of math to tackle recalcitrant problems, allowing them to recast those problems into concepts they better understand.
That has made Dr. Kashiwara, 78, of Kyoto University, “very important in many different areas of mathematics,” Dr. Holden said.
But have uses been found for Dr. Kashiwara’s work in solving concrete, real-world problems?
“No, nothing,” Dr. Kashiwara said in an interview.
The honor is accompanied by 7.5 million Norwegian kroner, or about $700,000.
Unlike Nobel Prize laureates, who are frequently surprised with middle-of-the-night phone calls just before the honors are publicly announced, Dr. Kashiwara has known of his honor for a week.
The Norwegian academy informs Abel Prize recipients with ruses similar to those used to spring a surprise birthday party on an unsuspecting person. “The director of my institute told me that there is a Zoom meeting at 4 o’clock in the afternoon, and please attend,” Dr. Kashiwara recalled in an interview.
On the video teleconference call, he did not recognize many of the faces. “There were many non-Japanese people in the Zoom meeting, and I’m wondering what’s going on,” Dr. Kashiwara said.
Marit Westergaard, secretary general of the Norwegian academy, introduced herself and told Dr. Kashiwara that he had been chosen for the year’s Abel.
“Congratulations,” she said.
Dr. Kashiwara, who was having trouble with his internet connection, was initially confused. “I don’t completely understand what you said,” he said.
When his Japanese colleagues repeated the news in Japanese, Dr. Kashiwara said: “That is not what I expected at all. I’m very surprised and honored.”
Growing up in Japan in the postwar years, Dr. Kashiwara was drawn to math. He recalled a common Japanese math problem known as tsurukamezan, which translates as the “crane and turtle calculation.”
The problem states: “There are cranes and turtles. The count of heads is X and the count of legs is Y. How many cranes and turtles are there?” (For example, for 21 heads and 54 legs, the answer is 15 cranes and six turtles.)
This is a simple algebra word problem similar to what students solve in middle school. But Dr. Kashiwara was much younger when he encountered the problem and read an encyclopedia to learn how to come up with the answer. “I was a kid, so I can’t remember, but I think I was 6 years old,” he said.
In college, he attended a seminar by Mikio Sato, a Japanese mathematician, and was fascinated by Sato’s groundbreaking work in what is now known as algebraic analysis.
“Analysis, that is described by the inequality,” Dr. Kashiwara said. “Something is bigger or something is smaller than the other.” Algebra deals with equalities, solving equations for some unknown quantity. “Sato wanted to bring the equality world into analysis.”
Phenomena in the real world are described by real numbers like 1, –4/3 and pi. There are also what are known as imaginary numbers like i, which is the square root of –1, and complex numbers, which are sums of real and imaginary numbers.
Real numbers are a subset of complex numbers. The real world, described by the mathematical functions of real numbers, “is surrounded by a complex world” involving functions of complex numbers, Dr. Kashiwara said.
For some equations with singularities — points where the answers turn into infinity — looking at the nearby behavior with complex numbers can sometimes provide insight. “So the inference from the complex world is reflected to the singularities in the real world,” Dr. Kashiwara said.
He wrote — by hand, in Japanese — a master’s thesis using algebra to study partial differential equations, developing techniques that he would employ throughout his career.
Dr. Kashiwara’s work also pulled in what is known as representation theory, which uses knowledge of symmetries to help solve a problem. “Imagine you have a figure drawn on the floor,” said Olivier Schiffmann, a mathematician at the University of Paris-Saclay and the French National Center for Scientific Research. “Unfortunately, it is all covered in mud and all you can see is, say, a 15-degree sector of it.”
But if one knows that the figure remains unchanged when rotated by 15 degrees, one can reconstruct it through successive rotations. Because of the symmetry, “I only need to know a small part in order to understand the whole,” Dr. Schiffman said. “Representation theory allows you to do that in much more complex situations.”
Another invention of Dr. Kashiwara’s was called crystal bases. He drew inspiration from statistical physics, which analyzes critical temperatures when materials change phases, like when ice melts to water. The crystal bases allowed complex, seemingly impossible calculations to be replaced with much simpler graphs of vertices connected by lines.
“This purely combinatorial object in fact encodes a lot of information,” Dr. Schiffmann said. “It opened up a whole new area of research.”
Confusingly, however, the crystals of crystal bases are completely different from the sparkly faceted gemstones that most people think of as crystals.
“Perhaps crystal is not a good word,” Dr. Kashiwara admitted.
Dr. Holden said Dr. Kashiwara’s work was difficult to explain to non-mathematicians, because it was much more abstract than that of some earlier Abel prize laureates.
For example, the research of Michel Talagrand, last year’s laureate, studied randomness in the universe like the heights of ocean waves, and the work of Luis Caffarelli, who was honored two years ago, can be applied to phenomena like the melting of a piece of ice.
Dr. Kashiwara’s work is more like tying together several abstract ideas of mathematics into more abstract combinations that are insightful to mathematicians tackling a variety of problems.
“I think it’s not easy,” Dr. Kashiwara said. “I’m sorry.”
Dr. Holden pointed to one particular work, in which Dr. Kashiwara deduced the existence of crystal bases, as a “masterpiece of a theorem,” with 14 steps of induction, using inference to recursively prove a series of assertions.
“He has to solve one by solving the others, and they’re all connected,” Dr. Holden said. “And if one falls, the whole thing falls. So he is able to combine them in a very deep and very clever way.”
But Dr. Holden said he could not provide a simple explanation of the proof. “That’s hard,” he said. “I can see the 14 steps.”
Science
Earth 1, asteroids 0: The next generation of planetary defense takes shape at JPL

There is a non-zero chance that somewhere in the nearby solar system is a rock that might kill us all.
This stony assassin may well be orbiting the sun at this very moment, careening down a celestial path that could, one day, intersect with ours.
And if that rock is big enough and hits in the right place — boom. Fire and smoke and death and extinction. Homo sapiens goes the way of T. rex.
To save ourselves from a killer asteroid, first we have to find it. A spacecraft now under construction at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory may be our best hope.
The Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor is a $1.4-billion infrared telescope with a single mission: to hunt asteroids and comets that could pose a danger to Earth.
This artist’s concept depicts NASA’s Near-Earth Object Surveyor (NEO Surveyor) being built at JPL in Pasadena and scheduled to launch in 2027.
(NASA / JPL-Caltech)
Astronomers have already identified roughly 2,500 asteroids larger than 140 meters that could come worryingly close.
Statistical models suggest that there could be as many as 25,000 such objects in the solar system, in addition to countless smaller asteroids that could also do considerable damage, said Amy Mainzer, a UCLA professor of planetary science who is leading the NEO Surveyor mission for NASA.
“We still don’t know everything that’s in our own backyard,” Mainzer said. And if we do need to mount a defense against an incoming threat from space, she said, “it all starts with knowing that there’s something there and having enough time to really make an informed plan.”
Asteroids are essentially construction debris left over from the formation of the solar system. A collapsed cloud of gas and dust condensed in places to create planets, including the one we’re on right now. It also produced smaller rocks that never achieved planet size or status.

A technician makes vent holes (to equalize pressure) along a length of electrostatic tape on a component of the NEO (Near-Earth Object) Surveyor at JPL in Pasadena.
(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times)
The NEO Surveyor fulfills a 2005 act of Congress ordering NASA to catalog 90% of near-Earth objects larger than 459 feet (140 meters), which is roughly the size at which an asteroid could take out a city, or “vaporize the L.A. basin,” said Tom Hoffman, JPL’s project manager for the mission.
Within the first five years after its planned Sept. 13, 2027, launch from Cape Canaveral, Fla., the mission is tasked with identifying at least two-thirds of the estimated 25,000 asteroids larger than that size believed to be circling Earth.
Within its first decade, astronomers expect to have tracked at least 90%, Mainzer said.
Most of what we know about the asteroids in our celestial neighborhood comes from ground-based telescopes. When viewed here on Earth, the most elusive asteroids look like ink spots traveling through a dark sky, Hoffman said.
But those dark objects absorb enough energy from the sun to raise their temperature. Through an infrared telescope, they glow like red Christmas lights.
The telescope’s destination is the first Lagrange point, or L1, one of five known places in the solar system where the balanced gravitational forces of the sun and Earth tend to hold objects in place. From a fixed distance of roughly 1 million miles above Earth — five times the distance from here to the moon — it will follow our planet around the sun, taking in an exponentially broader view of the field around Earth’s orbit than existing telescopes do.

Tom Hoffman, project manager, describes the mission of the Near-Earth Object Surveyor at JPL.
(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times)
The more images it captures of a potentially hazardous object, the more accurately astronomers can plot the object’s future movements and calculate the risk.
The most famous collision between Earth and one of these objects took place 66 million years ago, when a rock 7.5 miles wide smashed into what is now the Yucatan Peninsula.
The impact incinerated everything in the vicinity, and sparked massive fires.
Toxic clouds of pulverized rock, sulfate aerosols and wildfire soot soon blanketed the planet, blocking all but a tiny fraction of the sun’s energy and bringing photosynthesis to a virtual halt for the only known time in history.
Much smaller rocks can still wreak havoc. In 2013, an asteroid approximately 60 feet in diameter entered the atmosphere near the city of Chelyabinsk, Russia.
It exploded before hitting the ground — a common fate for smaller asteroids that can’t withstand the compression of entry — and shattered enough windows to send roughly 1,600 people to the hospital with minor injuries.
“Anything bigger than that — it’s not just going to be broken glass,” Mainzer said.

Technicians work on a component of the NEO (Near-Earth Object) Surveyor at JPL in Pasadena.
(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times)
Real-life asteroids don’t come hurtling toward Earth from the outer reaches of space the way they do in the movies. They tend to orbit elliptical paths around the sun, passing within sight of our telescopes years, decades or even centuries before any potential collision.
Technology has, fortunately, come a long way since the late Cretaceous. The sooner we find these asteroids, the more time we have to figure out the right way to prevent a catastrophe, and the less work it takes to successfully pull that off.
“It all comes down to doing things as early as you can, because then you barely have to do anything,” said Kathryn Kumamoto, head of the planetary defense program at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
“If we did want to, say, deflect the asteroid, we only have to nudge it a very little bit if we can get to it very far in advance,” Kumamoto said. “A change of a millimeter per second over decades will add up to thousands of kilometers, and that can be enough to make the asteroid miss the Earth entirely.”
NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test, or DART, confirmed in 2022 that it’s possible to successfully change the trajectory of a near-Earth object when it deliberately crashed a spacecraft into a tiny asteroid 7 million miles away.
But brute force isn’t our only option. Other proposals include painting part of the object with a light-colored coating that would redistribute its heat and eventually change its spin and orbit, Mainzer said, or parking a large spacecraft nearby whose gravity would reshape the object’s trajectory.
“It all starts with knowing that there’s something there and having enough time to really make an informed plan,” Mainzer said.
Science
Living Car-Free in Arizona, on Purpose and Happily

Last year, when Andre Rouhani and Gabriela Reyes toured Culdesac Tempe, a rental development outside of Phoenix, the place looked pretty sweet. It had winsome walkways, boutique shops and low-slung white stucco buildings clustered around shaded courtyards.
The only surprise came when Mr. Rouhani, 33, a doctoral student at Arizona State University, asked about resident parking and was told there was none.
The couple had two dogs, a toddler and another baby on the way. “Long story short, we decided that all the pros outweigh the cons,” Mr. Rouhani said in a recent phone interview. The family gave its car to Ms. Reyes’ father and moved into Culdesac in December. “We do really, really love it here,” Mr. Rouhani said. “It’s the best place I’ve ever lived.”
50 States, 50 Fixes is a series about local solutions to environmental problems. More to come this year.
Modeled on towns in Italy and Greece built long before the advent of cars, Culdesac Tempe is what its developers call the country’s first neighborhood purposely built to be car free.
Ryan Johnson, the Culdesac chief executive, said he wanted to offer a blueprint for living in a walkable place, even in a state that’s car-centric and often broiling.
“It’s one of the best things we can do for climate, health, happiness, low cost of living, even low cost of government,” said Mr. Johnson, who lives at Culdesac, too. “It’s also a better lifestyle. We all become the worst versions of ourselves behind the wheel.”
While there’s a short-term parking lot for deliveries, retailers and guests, Culdesac residents are expected to get around by the nearby light rail system, as well as on buses, scooters, electric bikes and by using ride shares. There are 22 retail shops, several of them live-work spaces, and a small Korean market. So far, 288 apartment units have been built on eight of the site’s 17 acres with another 450 units planned.
There are other car-free places in the United States, mostly island getaways where people walk, bike or tool around on golf carts. But zoning requirements in most cities usually require new developments to provide residents with a minimum number of parking spots, including in the Phoenix area, a paragon of urban sprawl. Culdesac Tempe’s developers were given a special exemption from parking requirements by the City of Tempe.
“This is completely different than our modern, conventional approach to development,” said Edward Erfurt, chief technical adviser at Strong Towns, a North American nonprofit group that promotes community resilience. “We’ve just had this experiment for the last eight decades where we’ve opted to prioritize an isolated transportation system versus our natural way of working together as humans.”
Culdesac Tempe broke that mold, Mr. Erfurt said, adding, “This is a very big deal.”
Culdesac’s two- and three-story buildings are designed for the desert climate, painted bright white to reflect heat. Not having to factor in residential parking allowed its architects to configure buildings to maximize shade and to design narrow pathways that encouraged breezes and social engagement.
“The pedestrian is really the primary person, the figure that you’re developing for,” said Alexandra Vondeling, the lead architect on the project. Big expanses of glass were eschewed, awnings added over sun-facing windows, and native plants and trees put in for cooling shade. There’s a wide walkway that can accommodate emergency vehicles, but no asphalt, reducing the urban heat island effect and improving conditions for the dogs that live there, too.
The apartments range from studios to three bedroom units, renting from between $1,300 to $2,800 a month, which Mr. Johnson said were market rates. Nearly 90 percent are leased.
Some residents were drawn to Culdesac because of its car-free mission, others in spite of it. There’s a contingent, size unknown, that quietly still owns cars, just parked off-site.
Sheryl Murdock, 50, a postdoctoral researcher who lives in Canada, is renting a unit because she is frequently in Tempe for work and wanted to balance the carbon emissions from all that flying.
Ashley Weiland and her husband moved in with their young child to give up the expense of having a car and ended up getting jobs at Culdesac, she at a restaurant there and he in maintenance.
Electra Hug, 24, who works for the city of Tempe and is blind, wanted to be close to public transit and have a sense of community. It’s the first time she’s lived without the assistance of family and friends. “In order to have a good time or have fun, I do not have to cross the street,” Ms. Hug said. “It’s just super unique and really just homey.”
Mr. Rouhani and Ms. Reyes borrow her father’s car once a week for errands. Otherwise they mostly ride public transit with free passes provided by Culdesac.
Living in a place where people are not zipping about in their cars means the pace is slower, with more opportunity for connection, Mr. Rouhani said. It is the kind of community, he said, where neighbors borrow a cup of sugar from each other. In the days after their daughter was born, three different families either brought a meal, dropped off cookies, or offered to go buy them groceries. “We really feel supported and loved here,” he said.
David King, who teaches urban planning at Arizona State University, said Culdesac Tempe could prompt other developers to push for exemptions from parking requirements. And Mr. Erfurt of Strong Towns said Culdesac Tempe could pave the way, as it were, for similar car-free developments to be built in places like shuttered strip malls, which could address the affordable housing crisis, lessen loneliness and bring people closer to where they work.
“We could do all that simply by decoupling parking from development,” Mr. Erfurt said. “In every market, people are looking for that.”
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