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How a Hurricanes comeback can reverse a decade-long trend

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How a Hurricanes comeback can reverse a decade-long trend

After starting the second round with three straight losses, the Carolina Hurricanes have officially made it a series with thrilling back-to-back wins in Games 4 and 5. 

That’s more akin to what many expected from this series before it started — a close, hard-fought battle between the two titans of the Metropolitan Division. While it certainly played out that way on the ice with three one-goal games to start, the series score obviously told a different story.

On Thursday night in Game 6, the Hurricanes have a very real chance to flip that script, as they’ll be relatively heavy favorites at home to push the series to a Game 7 with a third straight win of their own.

That may be a nauseating thought for Rangers fans, but it’s a rare treat for hockey fans at large. It would be the first time since 2014 that a team forced a Game 7 after starting a series down 3-0, when the Los Angeles Kings rallied in the first round to eliminate the San Jose Sharks.

That it’s been an entire decade since the last such instance is wilder than it seems at first blush. 

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There may not be anything more exciting in sport than a comeback, a down-and-out team returning from the dead against all odds. On a game-by-game basis, hockey fans have been blessed in that department over the last few seasons. The “most dangerous lead in hockey” remains, but that’s also extended to three-goal and four-goal cushions, which have evaporated at a much higher rate in recent years. In this sport, truly no lead is safe.

And yet that rising comeback mentality hasn’t extended to playoff series. Over the last decade, a 3-0 series lead might as well be a done deal. It’s a guarantee with zero hope for the downtrodden. 

It’s not even that there haven’t been any comebacks; it’s that there hasn’t even been a team that was close, with zero Game 7s to speak of in those situations.

To some, that may seem like a non-story, given the rarity throughout hockey history. A 3-0 series lead is a vice-grip that should be impossible to let go of, a feat reserved for only the biggest of choke artists.

Still with the increase in parity in the salary-cap era, we should’ve seen a few more over the last decade just by pure chance. There’s always a chance of even the most unexpected thing happening and the fact those chances haven’t come to fruition is fascinating.

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Since 2015, there have been 30 instances of a team being down 3-0, and 60 percent of those ended unceremoniously in a sweep. Only four (13 percent) even made it to Game 6, where the Hurricanes are now — with last year’s Dallas Stars being the first to even manage that in eight(!) seasons.

While the odds are never in the favor of a team down 3-0, they aren’t zero, either. At least they shouldn’t be. There’s a myth that a 3-0 deficit only happens to the worst teams, those that would be extremely unlikely to crawl out of such a hole to begin with, but it can happen to even the best of teams.

Before the series began, the 30 teams ranged from 17 percent underdogs to 77 percent favorites (hello 2019 Tampa Bay Lightning) based on series prices from Sports Odds History. Of the 30, 13 teams were expected to win from the onset. Based on that — and accounting for a lesser opinion of the team after losing three straight — the odds of at least forcing Game 7 ranged from four percent to 20 percent. The odds of coming back ranged from one percent to 13 percent.

On average, we’re talking a one-in-10 shot at forcing Game 7 and a one-in-five shot at winning the series after going down 3-0. Those are clearly minuscule odds, but over 30 series, those tiny odds add up. 

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Based on each team’s odds after being down 3-0, we should’ve seen three Game 7s with one or two full-blown comebacks. We’ve got zero instead. In short — we’ve been robbed.

Some will be quick to point out the human element of it all, and it’s a very fair point. Up 3-0, a lot of teams have shown the necessary killer instinct to close the series. Down 3-0, a lot of teams have folded at the prospect of the mountain ahead. Sometimes, the teams down 3-0 are simply not as good as they were expected to be from the jump. Or the team up 3-0 is a lot better.

As valid as those points may seem, the odds of not seeing a Game 7 for a team down 3-0 let alone a comeback is still very low — low enough that even real qualitative counters can’t explain it away. Given 30 instances with an average of a 10.6 percent chance of seeing a Game 7, there’s a 97 percent chance we should’ve seen at least one. A 5.2 percent chance of seeing a comeback over 30 instances gives us an 80 percent chance of seeing at least one on that front.

The odds of chaos have been high enough over the last decade; they just haven’t manifested. That can happen over small samples; 30 series definitely qualifies for that.

Over a larger sample, the odds do tend to even out, though, and that’s best exhibited from looking at the start of the salary cap era. There, the odds perfectly reflect reality.

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From 2006 to 2014, there were 38 series in which a team went down 3-0 — but those teams clearly had a bit more fight in them. A higher percentage won at least one game (57 percent), two forced a Game 7 and lost (Detroit and Chicago in 2011), and two of those teams won (Los Angeles in 2014 and Philadelphia in 2010).

Their average odds? The same as the last decade: 11 percent to force Game 7 and five percent to complete the comeback.

Add up all the odds, and that nine-year period got the exact amount of dramatic chaos as expected: 4.1 Game 7s and 2.1 comebacks. It’s a stark contrast from what we’ve received over the last decade. Hockey fans are long overdue.

Overdue doesn’t mean it’s due to happen. It’s a fallacy to suggest there will be more Game 7s and comebacks after a team goes down 3-0 simply because it hasn’t happened in a while. That doesn’t make it more likely to happen in the near future. The odds, on average, are still about one-in-10 for a Game 7 and one-in-five for a comeback.

But we’re as close as we can get here with the Hurricanes.

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For Carolina, specifically, the odds have changed after winning Games 4 and 5. Now it’s an over 60 percent chance of forcing Game 7 and an over 30 percent chance of completing the comeback. For the first time in a decade, we have a serious chance of witnessing history. 

The odds are still heavily in the Rangers’ favor here up 3-2 and no one is counting out the Presidents’ Trophy champions from grabbing that necessary fourth win. But the Hurricanes have a great team too, one with a real chance of living up to their slogan: “cause chaos.”

(Photo: Joshua Sarner / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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Disney, ESPN to air Mickey Mouse alt-cast for Knicks-Spurs on Christmas

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Disney, ESPN to air Mickey Mouse alt-cast for Knicks-Spurs on Christmas

It will be a Mickey Mouse production for the NBA on ESPN.

On Christmas Day, the network and the league will continue the trend of presenting alternative broadcasts when the New York Knicks face the San Antonio Spurs at noon, Disney announced Wednesday.

While the traditional broadcast will be available on places like ESPN and ABC, ESPN2 will have what is being dubbed as “Dunk The Halls,” the first animated game in NBA history. Both versions will be available on the streaming services, ESPN+ and Disney+.

The presentation will utilize Sony’s “Beyond Sports Technology” by recreating the game action of stars like Victor Wembanyama and Jalen Brunson on Magic Kingdom’s “Main Street USA.” Mickey and Minnie Mouse, Donald Duck, Pluto, Goofy and Chip and Dale will cheer on the players and deliver pretend pre-game and half-time speeches.

At intermission, the Disney characters will compete in a slam dunk contest.

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After a long night of work, Santa’s helpers have been contracted to operate the cameras, while Santa, himself, will work ESPN’s “SkyCam” during the game.

Drew Carter, Monica McNutt and sideline reporter Daisy Duck will be the trio on the broadcast. The traditional telecast will feature Ryan Ruocco and Corey Alexander with Cassidy Hubbarth on the sideline.

ESPN said in its release that fans will also find out if snow will fall on “Main Street,” though it is doubtful any betting sites will take wagers (a white Christmas is a strong favorite, nonetheless). If that is not enough to entice viewers, Goofy will see how many churros he can eat.

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The telecast continues the trend of alternative broadcasts. In 2021, the NBA and ESPN teamed up with Disney Marvel characters for an alt-cast.

Required reading

(Photo: Courtesy of ESPN)

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Legendary UConn coach Geno Auriemma sets NCAA all-time wins record

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Legendary UConn coach Geno Auriemma sets NCAA all-time wins record

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Legendary UConn women’s basketball head coach Geno Auriemma made history Wednesday night with the Huskies’ victory over Fairleigh Dickinson University. 

Auriemma became the all-time wins leader in college basketball history for both men and women, collecting his 1,217th victory to pass Tara VanDerveer, the legendary Stanford Cardinal coach. 

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More than 60 former players were at Gampel Pavilion as part of a sellout crowd to watch the Huskies take down the Knights, 85-41. Despite UConn being a heavy favorite in this matchup, Auriemma went about coaching like the 1,216 wins before it, until the final buzzer sounded.

Connecticut Huskies head coach Geno Auriemma reacts in the first quarter against the Iowa Hawkeyes in the semifinals of the Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. (Kirby Lee/USA Today Sports)

The game was also a celebration of Auriemma and associate head coach Chris Dailey’s 40th season leading the Huskies. It was part of a celebration that included a goat petting zoo near the arena during a fan fest, a reference to Auriemma being the greatest of all-time. 

While the night was meant to honor Auriemma and Dailey, the win to set the new record led to reflection on just how dominant his program has been at UConn all these years. 

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GENO AURIEMMA TIES DIVISION I COACHING RECORD AS NO. 2 UCONN BEATS NO. 14 UNC 69-58

The Huskies are 11-time national champions with 23 Final Four appearances, including 15 in the last 16 years. 

Auriemma’s .882 win percentage for his career remains an NCAA record as well. 

“At the beginning, we really just had our vision and each other to say, ‘This is what we’re going to do,’” Dailey said Tuesday, via ESPN. “And we were able to convince enough people to believe that same dream. And, eventually, 40 years later, a lot more has happened than what we ever thought would have.”

Bueckers and Geno

Paige Bueckers and head coach Geno Auriemma of the Connecticut Huskies during the first half against the Duke Blue Devils in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament at Moda Center March 30, 2024, in Portland, Ore. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

Auriemma has only coached at one school, building his squad in Storrs to the point it was nationally recognized as a powerhouse for decades. After the team’s first national title under Auriemma in 1995, UConn was, and still remains, a powerhouse every season. 

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Auriemma, 70, still wants to coach the Huskies despite admitting to feeling at times it was the right move to walk away. 

“As long as I’m here, and I walk in this building, and I see the players here, and I see the people that work in my little world and how we all kind of motivate each other, there’s no other place I would want to be,” he said. 

Geno Auriemma

Head coach Geno Auriemma of the Connecticut Huskies celebrates after his team’s 80-73 win against the USC Trojans in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament at Moda Center April 1, 2024, in Portland, Ore. (Soobum Im/Getty Images)

UConn remains unbeaten at 4-0 to start the 2024-25 campaign. 

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Sebastian Mack makes his presence felt in UCLA's win over Idaho State

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Sebastian Mack makes his presence felt in UCLA's win over Idaho State

In case anyone had forgotten about him amid all the newcomers dotting UCLA’s roster, Sebastian Mack provided a reminder with every foray toward the basket Wednesday night.

He’s still here. Dismiss him at your own risk.

On a night that the frontcourt duo of Tyler Bilodeau and Eric Dailey Jr. continued to provide a smorgasbord of offense for the Bruins, Mack was their leading scorer on the way to an 84-70 victory over Idaho State at Pauley Pavilion.

Mack contributed 21 points off the bench on the strength of 15 free throws for the Bruins (4-1), who have won three consecutive games in convincing fashion since their setback against New Mexico earlier this month.

Meanwhile, Bilodeau and Dailey continued to carry a group of starters that hasn’t gotten much offensive production from the guards. It was a similar story Wednesday, with Kobe Johnson, Lazar Stefanovic and Skyy Clark combining for just 10 points.

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Bilodeau single-handedly doubled that output with 20 points on eight-for-14 shooting, including four of four from three-point range for a team that made nine of 14 shots from beyond the arc. Dailey added 16 points while making seven of nine shots to go with seven rebounds.

Their efficiency prevented defenders from sagging off to contest UCLA’s most prolific offensive weapon, who continually drove the open lanes that invited a Mack attack. The Bengals kept fouling the sophomore guard and sending him to the free-throw line, where he made 15 of 16 attempts.

Mack’s presence alone could be considered a victory for the Bruins. He could have joined several teammates who departed in the offseason amid the influx of six transfers. He stuck it out, heeding his coach’s advice.

UCLA forward Tyler Bilodeau dribbles with his back to the basket, working to get an open shot against Idaho State Wednesday at Pauley Pavilion.

(Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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“The last thing you should do,” Mick Cronin said, repeating what he told Mack. “You should stay here, let me coach the hell out of you and get everything out of you that you need to get out of you so you can become who you want to become. Choose hard. It works for people. Choose hard. Don’t choose easy.”

Mack said he trusted his coach’s promise to make him a more complete player.

“Just be able to guard, shoot, score whenever I look at my teammates,” Mack said of the things he’s working on, “just all around, pretty much.”

Mack displayed unselfishness in the first half with a lob to forward William Kyle III for a thunderous dunk that enlivened the crowd.

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After using a small lineup in the season’s early going, Cronin said he would eventually like to play the 6-foot-9 Kyle alongside the 6-foot-9 Bilodeau and 6-foot-8 Dailey to combat the larger bodies he expects to face in the Big Ten.

“When those bigger teams come,” Bilodeau said, “we’re definitely going to need the size and the strength in there.”

One possible snag is the lack of a reliable backup big man. Cronin hasn’t been happy with the performance of center Aday Mara, who had two turnovers in as many minutes Wednesday.

“Aday’s got to play better,” Cronin said, “so then we’ve got a sub.”

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Since infuriating their coach with a lack of toughness against New Mexico, the Bruins have pleased him with improved competitiveness and defensive intensity.

Next on Cronin’s to-do list? Get better at rebounding, reducing turnovers and making shots.

There was some progress Wednesday in that the Bruins made 27 of 47 shots (a season-high 57.4%) and committed a reasonable 11 turnovers. But they gave up 10 offensive rebounds after putting a lid on the basket in practice this week to emphasize boxing out.

UCLA also exhibited some defensive slippage, particularly over the final 10 minutes, after holding its three previous opponents to 50 points or fewer at home this season.

Idaho State may not have much name recognition, but the Bengals have a proud history against UCLA. Some might say they ended the Bruins basketball dynasty with a 76-75 upset over a Marques Johnson-led team in the second round of the 1977 NCAA tournament.

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John Wooden was already gone, you say? True, but the Bruins had extended their run of Final Fours the year after he retired in 1975, only for the team’s streak of 10 consecutive trips to college basketball’s biggest stage to end thanks to a flurry of points and rebounds from Idaho State’s Steve Hayes.

Senior forward Isaiah Griffin looked like he might reprise that role while scoring Idaho State’s first 12 points Wednesday. At that point, the Bengals (2-4) held a 12-10 lead and appeared like they might have a chance for a breakthrough after single-digit losses to Arizona State, USC and Cal State Fullerton.

But Bilodeau and Dailey countered with back-to-back three-pointers to spark a 10-0 run, and Mack kept attacking.

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