Connect with us

Sports

How a Hurricanes comeback can reverse a decade-long trend

Published

on

How a Hurricanes comeback can reverse a decade-long trend

After starting the second round with three straight losses, the Carolina Hurricanes have officially made it a series with thrilling back-to-back wins in Games 4 and 5. 

That’s more akin to what many expected from this series before it started — a close, hard-fought battle between the two titans of the Metropolitan Division. While it certainly played out that way on the ice with three one-goal games to start, the series score obviously told a different story.

On Thursday night in Game 6, the Hurricanes have a very real chance to flip that script, as they’ll be relatively heavy favorites at home to push the series to a Game 7 with a third straight win of their own.

That may be a nauseating thought for Rangers fans, but it’s a rare treat for hockey fans at large. It would be the first time since 2014 that a team forced a Game 7 after starting a series down 3-0, when the Los Angeles Kings rallied in the first round to eliminate the San Jose Sharks.

That it’s been an entire decade since the last such instance is wilder than it seems at first blush. 

Advertisement

There may not be anything more exciting in sport than a comeback, a down-and-out team returning from the dead against all odds. On a game-by-game basis, hockey fans have been blessed in that department over the last few seasons. The “most dangerous lead in hockey” remains, but that’s also extended to three-goal and four-goal cushions, which have evaporated at a much higher rate in recent years. In this sport, truly no lead is safe.

And yet that rising comeback mentality hasn’t extended to playoff series. Over the last decade, a 3-0 series lead might as well be a done deal. It’s a guarantee with zero hope for the downtrodden. 

It’s not even that there haven’t been any comebacks; it’s that there hasn’t even been a team that was close, with zero Game 7s to speak of in those situations.

To some, that may seem like a non-story, given the rarity throughout hockey history. A 3-0 series lead is a vice-grip that should be impossible to let go of, a feat reserved for only the biggest of choke artists.

Still with the increase in parity in the salary-cap era, we should’ve seen a few more over the last decade just by pure chance. There’s always a chance of even the most unexpected thing happening and the fact those chances haven’t come to fruition is fascinating.

Advertisement

Since 2015, there have been 30 instances of a team being down 3-0, and 60 percent of those ended unceremoniously in a sweep. Only four (13 percent) even made it to Game 6, where the Hurricanes are now — with last year’s Dallas Stars being the first to even manage that in eight(!) seasons.

While the odds are never in the favor of a team down 3-0, they aren’t zero, either. At least they shouldn’t be. There’s a myth that a 3-0 deficit only happens to the worst teams, those that would be extremely unlikely to crawl out of such a hole to begin with, but it can happen to even the best of teams.

Before the series began, the 30 teams ranged from 17 percent underdogs to 77 percent favorites (hello 2019 Tampa Bay Lightning) based on series prices from Sports Odds History. Of the 30, 13 teams were expected to win from the onset. Based on that — and accounting for a lesser opinion of the team after losing three straight — the odds of at least forcing Game 7 ranged from four percent to 20 percent. The odds of coming back ranged from one percent to 13 percent.

On average, we’re talking a one-in-10 shot at forcing Game 7 and a one-in-five shot at winning the series after going down 3-0. Those are clearly minuscule odds, but over 30 series, those tiny odds add up. 

Advertisement

Based on each team’s odds after being down 3-0, we should’ve seen three Game 7s with one or two full-blown comebacks. We’ve got zero instead. In short — we’ve been robbed.

Some will be quick to point out the human element of it all, and it’s a very fair point. Up 3-0, a lot of teams have shown the necessary killer instinct to close the series. Down 3-0, a lot of teams have folded at the prospect of the mountain ahead. Sometimes, the teams down 3-0 are simply not as good as they were expected to be from the jump. Or the team up 3-0 is a lot better.

As valid as those points may seem, the odds of not seeing a Game 7 for a team down 3-0 let alone a comeback is still very low — low enough that even real qualitative counters can’t explain it away. Given 30 instances with an average of a 10.6 percent chance of seeing a Game 7, there’s a 97 percent chance we should’ve seen at least one. A 5.2 percent chance of seeing a comeback over 30 instances gives us an 80 percent chance of seeing at least one on that front.

The odds of chaos have been high enough over the last decade; they just haven’t manifested. That can happen over small samples; 30 series definitely qualifies for that.

Over a larger sample, the odds do tend to even out, though, and that’s best exhibited from looking at the start of the salary cap era. There, the odds perfectly reflect reality.

Advertisement

From 2006 to 2014, there were 38 series in which a team went down 3-0 — but those teams clearly had a bit more fight in them. A higher percentage won at least one game (57 percent), two forced a Game 7 and lost (Detroit and Chicago in 2011), and two of those teams won (Los Angeles in 2014 and Philadelphia in 2010).

Their average odds? The same as the last decade: 11 percent to force Game 7 and five percent to complete the comeback.

Add up all the odds, and that nine-year period got the exact amount of dramatic chaos as expected: 4.1 Game 7s and 2.1 comebacks. It’s a stark contrast from what we’ve received over the last decade. Hockey fans are long overdue.

Overdue doesn’t mean it’s due to happen. It’s a fallacy to suggest there will be more Game 7s and comebacks after a team goes down 3-0 simply because it hasn’t happened in a while. That doesn’t make it more likely to happen in the near future. The odds, on average, are still about one-in-10 for a Game 7 and one-in-five for a comeback.

But we’re as close as we can get here with the Hurricanes.

Advertisement

For Carolina, specifically, the odds have changed after winning Games 4 and 5. Now it’s an over 60 percent chance of forcing Game 7 and an over 30 percent chance of completing the comeback. For the first time in a decade, we have a serious chance of witnessing history. 

The odds are still heavily in the Rangers’ favor here up 3-2 and no one is counting out the Presidents’ Trophy champions from grabbing that necessary fourth win. But the Hurricanes have a great team too, one with a real chance of living up to their slogan: “cause chaos.”

(Photo: Joshua Sarner / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Sports

The non-all-star All-Stars: Lindor, Gil and other MLB snubs at each position

Published

on

The non-all-star All-Stars: Lindor, Gil and other MLB snubs at each position

Look, I know how these guys feel. Here at The Athletic, a handful of writers were chosen to wax poetic about the superstar players who made this year’s All-Star team. And the rest of us were left out, our rightful place on the roster outrageously overlooked due to some weird, overly complicated selection process.

We are the snubs. And we’re all in this together.

Here, then, is our non-all-star All-Star team, the most worthy players at each position who didn’t hear their names called Sunday night and were not — at least, so far — selected for the midsummer classic.

Note: Starting position players are selected via fan vote, and players vote for eight pitchers plus one backup at each position. The league selects the final few players to round out the rosters, ensuring every team has a representative.

Catcher

Patrick Bailey, San Francisco Giants

Advertisement

Neither league is carrying a third catcher this season (and it’s pretty easy to argue that each league picked the correct two guys behind the plate), but Bailey would have been a worthy addition (the league instead chose outfielder Heliot Ramos and ace Logan Webb as the Giants’ representatives). Throwing and framing metrics have Bailey as one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, and wRC+ puts him basically on par with Salvador Perez offensively. Bailey debuted just last year. He’s going to make an All-Star team at some point.

GO DEEPER

Heliot Ramos, Logan Webb selected as the Giants representatives for the 2024 All-Star Game

First base

Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks

A word of advice for anyone trying to make an All-Star team: Try not to play in the same league, at the same position, as Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman. Those two were selected to their eighth All-Star teams this season. Walker has yet to make one. He has the third-most homers in the NL (behind All-Star DHs Shohei Ohtani and Marcell Ozuna), and he ranks 10th in the NL in wRC+ (but that’s still behind both Harper and Freeman). Walker could still make the team if Harper’s hamstring strain keeps him out of the All-Star Game, but the Phillies seem to expect Harper to return this week.

Advertisement

Second base

Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers

WAR is not a perfect metric, but it’s useful shorthand for a player’s all-around impact. By the Baseball Reference version of WAR, Turang is the fourth-best player in the entire National League. The FanGraphs version isn’t quite so bullish, but it still has him 20th in the NL, which is 30 spots higher — and more than 1.5 WAR better — than the NL’s backup second baseman, Luis Arraez. Turang doesn’t have Arraez’s batting average, but he does have more power, more stolen bases and far superior defensive metrics. The players, though, chose Arraez.

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor, New York Mets

Had Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner (who’s missed considerable time with an injury) not been voted in as the NL starter, there might have been room for Lindor, who ranks seventh in the league in fWAR. But the Cincinnati Reds’ Elly De La Cruz (as a replacement for injured Mookie Betts) was chosen by the players, and the league chose CJ Abrams as the lone representative of the Washington Nationals, which left no room for Lindor or Willy Adames of the Milwaukee Brewers. A total of 40 players have at least 2.5 fWAR so far this season, and nine of them are shortstops (11 if you count multi-positional Willi Castro of the Minnesota Twins and Josh Smith of the Texas Rangers). Shortstop snubs were inevitable, even with seven chosen between the two rosters.

Third base

Jordan Westburg, Baltimore Orioles

Advertisement

Five third basemen rank in the top 18 in American League fWAR, and there simply wasn’t room for all of them on the roster. The fans voted for José Ramírez, the players voted for Rafael Devers, and the league chose Isaac Paredes as the Tampa Bay Rays’ representative. That left Westburg as the odd man out. He might have made it had he been listed as a second baseman — he’s played about a third of his games at second — but Westburg, Paredes and Smith have fairly similar numbers, and there just wasn’t room for all of them.

Outfield

Willi Castro, Minnesota Twins
Colton Cowser, Baltimore Orioles
Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets

Castro doesn’t fit neatly onto an All-Star ballot. He’s played at least 20 games at five different positions — second base, third base, shortstop, center field, left field — sometimes getting turns at multiple spots in a single game. Despite all that moving around, he’s produced a 130 wRC+ and the sixth-highest fWAR among all qualified outfielders in either league. Yet, he didn’t make the AL team. Neither did Orioles rookie Cowser (or his teammate, Anthony Santander) or any number of defensive standouts (notably, Daulton Varsho of the Toronto Blue Jays). The NL outfield was a little more wide-open, but Nimmo had at least as good a case as any outfielder on the NL bench.


Brent Rooker rounds the bases after hitting a three-run home run against the Orioles. (D. Ross Cameron / USA Today)

Designated hitter

Brent Rooker, Oakland A’s

David Fry is one of the most surprising standouts of the first half. He’s made double-digit starts at catcher, left field and designated hitter — with a handful of innings at first base, third base and right field — and he’s helped keep the Guardians in first place with the 10th-best wRC+ among players with at least 200 plate appearances. Rooker, though, has similar offensive numbers (155 OPS+ to Fry’s 161) while getting almost 100 more plate appearances and hitting more than twice as many home runs (18 vs. 8).

Advertisement

Starting pitchers

Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros
Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers
Luis Gil, New York Yankees
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

If you last checked in three weeks ago, you might have assumed Gil was a lock for the AL staff. As of mid-June, he had a 2.03 ERA through 14 starts and seemed a worthy replacement for injured Gerrit Cole atop the Yankees’ rotation. But Gil’s past three starts — heading into a Sunday night matchup against the Red Sox — resulted in three straight losses and a 14.90 ERA, which pushed his season ERA down to 3.41, 15th-best in the AL. Four starters with an ERA below 3.00 failed to make either team (Blanco, Sánchez, Brady Singer of the Kansas City Royals and Jake Irvin of the Nationals). Same for the major-league leader in strikeout-to-walk ratio (Kirby) and the leader in xFIP (Flaherty) who also has the third-best strikeout rate and the fourth-best expected ERA. Inevitably, though, a few selected starters will opt out, which means some of the initial snubs will ultimately make it.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Phillies exit Atlanta with 7 All-Stars, Schwarber and Harper back soon, and a debut to ponder

Relief pitcher

Trevor Megill, Milwaukee Brewers

The first-place Brewers landed two players in the NL starting lineup, but no one on the bench (three of their infielders deserved consideration) and no one in the bullpen (they have the fourth-best bullpen ERA in the majors). Closer Megill and setup man Bryan Hudson rank fifth and sixth in Win Probability Added, and either one would have been a justifiable addition, but the NL Players’ Ballot selected two non-closers (Matt Strahm and Jeff Hoffman of the Philadelphia Phillies), forcing the league to use five of its six at-large spots to find lone representatives of the Mets (Pete Alonso), Nationals (Abrams), St. Louis Cardinals (Ryan Helsley), Chicago Cubs (Shota Imanaga) and Miami Marlins (Tanner Scott). The one truly at-large selection in the NL went to Webb.

Advertisement

(Top photo of Francisco Lindor: Nuccio DiNuzzo / Getty Images)

Continue Reading

Sports

Shocking photos show totaled vehicle Vikings rookie Khyree Jackson was in during fatal crash

Published

on

Shocking photos show totaled vehicle Vikings rookie Khyree Jackson was in during fatal crash

Join Fox News for access to this content

You have reached your maximum number of articles. Log in or create an account FREE of charge to continue reading.

By entering your email and pushing continue, you are agreeing to Fox News’ Terms of Use and Privacy Policy, which includes our Notice of Financial Incentive.

Please enter a valid email address.

Having trouble? Click here.

Photos of the Maryland car crash that took the life of Minnesota Vikings cornerback Khyree Jackson, among others, showed the vehicle he was in destroyed. 

Jackson was in the passenger seat of a maroon Dodge Charger, which was seen on a tow truck in photos obtained by TMZ. 

Advertisement

The car is almost unrecognizable, as it is flattened in the back of the tow truck, while a different photo shows the interior of the vehicle on the outside with the rear of the car detached from the rest of the body. 

Photo of the Dodge Charger Minnesota Vikings rookie Khyree Jackson and two of his high school teammates were in during a fatal Maryland car crash. (TMZSports.com)

Maryland State Police issued a statement saying they are investigating the crash that occurred in Upper Marlboro and left Jackson and two of his high school teammates – Isaiah Hazel, 23, and Anthony Lytton Jr., 24 – dead. 

Police found that Hazel, the driver of the Dodge Charger, and Jackson were dead upon arrival. Lytton was transported to the hospital and pronounced dead by medical personnel later on. 

Advertisement
Totaled Dodge Charger

Photo of a totaled Dodge Charger Vikings rookie Khyree Jackson died in along with two of his high school teammates following a Maryland car crash. (TMZSports.com)

Police say the accident occurred shortly after 3:14 a.m. Saturday, as troopers from the Forestville Barrack responded to the crash. 

VIKINGS ROOKIE KHYREE JACKSON DEAD AT 24 AFTER MARYLAND CAR CRASH

There were three vehicles involved in the crash, which included a silver Infinity Q50 and a Chevy Impala. Police say their initial findings were the driver of the Infinity Q50, identified as Cori Clingman, 23, attempted to change lanes at a “high rate of speed when she struck the Dodge Charger and then struck the Chevrolet Impala.”

The Charger, then, traveled off the right side of the road and “struck multiple tree stumps” before coming to a rest. No one was injured in Clingman’s vehicle, which had two other passengers inside, while the Chevy Impala driver refused medical attention at the scene. 

Vikings rookies

Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy puts his arm around cornerback Khyree Jackson during rookie camp on May 10, 2024, at TCO Performance Center in Eagan, Minnesota. (Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Investigators believe alcohol may have been a contributing factor in the crash, though they did not specify which driver. 

Advertisement

The Vikings released a statement on Saturday confirming the news that Jackson, a fourth-round pick out of Oregon in 2024, had passed away. 

“I am absolutely crushed by this news,” head coach Kevin O’Connell said in the statement. 

“Khyree brought a contagious energy to our facility and our team. His confidence and engaging personality immediately drew his teammates to him. In our short time together, it was evident Khyree was going to develop into a tremendous professional football player, but what was more impressive was his desire to become the best person he could be for his family and those around him. I am at a loss for words. My heart goes out to Khyree’s family, friends, teammates and coaches.”

Khyree Jackson runs

Khyree Jackson of Oregon runs the 40-yard dash during the NFL Combine at the Lucas Oil Stadium on March 1, 2024, in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

ESPN reported that Hazel and Lytton both played college football, with the former spending time at Maryland and Charlotte, while the latter spent time at Florida State and Penn State. 

Advertisement

Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X, and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.

Continue Reading

Sports

Dodgers are on track to make playoffs again. So why hasn't Dave Roberts been given a new contract?

Published

on

Dodgers are on track to make playoffs again. So why hasn't Dave Roberts been given a new contract?

Everyone knows how this will play out — the way it plays out every year.

As the postseason approaches, the whispers will increase in volume. Eventually, they will become the story and all anyone will talk about is how Dave Roberts will be fired if the Dodgers don’t win the World Series.

The intensity of this speculation varies from season to season, depending on how much time Roberts has left on his contract.

In this case, Roberts has one year after this season. The conversations about his future will be louder than usual.

Advertisement

Which is a load of nonsense.

The Dodgers know what they have in Roberts, who now has a nine-season track record of nearly unprecedented success. Even if they falter in October again and upper management wants to deflect blame, there would be no upside in attempting to make him a scapegoat. Just like in the last couple of postseasons, the Dodgers’ likeliest playoff pitfalls will be the obvious holes on the roster, which the majority of fans are smart enough to recognize.

So why haven’t the Dodgers approached Roberts about a new contract? Why would they allow Roberts to be subjected to the kind of scrutiny that weakens him in the eyes of his players? Why would they give oxygen to theories that could only be a distraction for the team?

Just extend his deal already.

Asked if the Dodgers have considered doing that, Andrew Friedman, president of baseball operations, replied in a text message, “Doc is a big part of what we have accomplished in the past and we look forward to him being a big part of what we will accomplish in the future. Right now, all of our focus and attention are on doing everything we can to win a Championship this season.”

Advertisement

Again, why haven’t the Dodgers approached Roberts about a new contract?

Apart from four Negro League managers, no manager in baseball history has as high of a winning percentage as Roberts, and none of the four won as many games as Roberts.

Roberts is on track to lead the Dodgers to the postseason for the ninth time in nine years, and if that sounds boring, well, maybe it’s time to appreciate boring.

Consider the team’s current situation.

Tyler Glasnow, who is already nearing his career high in innings pitched, was blown up in a recent start. Yoshinobu Yamamoto hasn’t thrown a baseball since he was sidelined because of a shoulder injury. Walker Buehler isn’t even with the team, as he aborted his initial attempt to return from an elbow reconstruction and is working with private coaches in Florida.

Advertisement

Any other World Series contender would have been concerned, if not downright panicking.

The Dodgers? They’re behaving as if nothing’s wrong, even after they were beaten twice in a three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

This unmistakable calmness around Dodger Stadium shouldn’t be taken for granted — nor should Roberts, who is responsible for shaping this environment.

The Dodgers have made 11 consecutive postseason appearances, but their history didn’t guarantee them being on track to return to the October stage. Look at what’s happening to the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers.

A billion-dollar winter didn’t guarantee the Dodgers any victories, either. Look at what happened to the New York Mets and San Diego Padres after their spending sprees in recent years.

Advertisement

The peaceful atmosphere around the Dodgers obscures a number of events that could have distracted, or even derailed, them. Interpreter Ippei Mizuhara admitted to stealing nearly $17 million from Shohei Ohtani to cover his gambling debts. Gavin Lux played his way out of being the starting shortstop, resulting in Mookie Betts taking over the position. Last month, Betts went down because of a broken hand.

Roberts kept the Dodgers in balance. He did so with his deft management of an old bullpen, by talking confidence into the likes of journeyman reliever Yohan Ramírez, by trusting an unproven starter such as Gavin Stone and by ensuring Miguel Rojas remained engaged enough to be able to step in to play shortstop when Betts became unavailable.

Before one recent game, Roberts accompanied Clayton Kershaw to the outfield, where he watched the sidelined veteran throw on flat ground. On his way back to the bench, Roberts checked in with utilityman Chris Taylor, who was batting .095 in the team’s first 64 games but over .260 since.

Roberts claimed to not be concerned about a new contract, or how the absence of one could shape the public’s perception of him.

“The right answer, or the honest answer, is that I’m focused on this year and winning a championship for the city of Los Angeles and the Dodgers,” Roberts said. “Obviously, my hope is that I could be here. I don’t want to manage anywhere else, so I hope things work out.”

Advertisement

Roberts shouldn’t have to hope. The matter should be resolved as soon as possible.

The last time Roberts was in this position was in 2021, the year after the Dodgers won the World Series. They were eliminated in the National League Championship Series that year after Max Scherzer couldn’t take the mound because the front office implemented an unnecessary plan for him to close out the previous round. Roberts’ competence was called into question as the Dodgers lost control of the series and speculation mounted over his future. The Dodgers ultimately extended his contract before his lame-duck season the next year, but not until late in spring training.

Unless the Dodgers think Roberts isn’t the best option to lead them into the future — and every indication is that he is — there’s no reason for them to let him be scrutinized that way again. It’s disrespectful to Roberts, and it’s counterproductive to winning another championship.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Trending