Sports
How a Hurricanes comeback can reverse a decade-long trend
After starting the second round with three straight losses, the Carolina Hurricanes have officially made it a series with thrilling back-to-back wins in Games 4 and 5.
That’s more akin to what many expected from this series before it started — a close, hard-fought battle between the two titans of the Metropolitan Division. While it certainly played out that way on the ice with three one-goal games to start, the series score obviously told a different story.
On Thursday night in Game 6, the Hurricanes have a very real chance to flip that script, as they’ll be relatively heavy favorites at home to push the series to a Game 7 with a third straight win of their own.
That may be a nauseating thought for Rangers fans, but it’s a rare treat for hockey fans at large. It would be the first time since 2014 that a team forced a Game 7 after starting a series down 3-0, when the Los Angeles Kings rallied in the first round to eliminate the San Jose Sharks.
That it’s been an entire decade since the last such instance is wilder than it seems at first blush.
There may not be anything more exciting in sport than a comeback, a down-and-out team returning from the dead against all odds. On a game-by-game basis, hockey fans have been blessed in that department over the last few seasons. The “most dangerous lead in hockey” remains, but that’s also extended to three-goal and four-goal cushions, which have evaporated at a much higher rate in recent years. In this sport, truly no lead is safe.
And yet that rising comeback mentality hasn’t extended to playoff series. Over the last decade, a 3-0 series lead might as well be a done deal. It’s a guarantee with zero hope for the downtrodden.
It’s not even that there haven’t been any comebacks; it’s that there hasn’t even been a team that was close, with zero Game 7s to speak of in those situations.
To some, that may seem like a non-story, given the rarity throughout hockey history. A 3-0 series lead is a vice-grip that should be impossible to let go of, a feat reserved for only the biggest of choke artists.
Still with the increase in parity in the salary-cap era, we should’ve seen a few more over the last decade just by pure chance. There’s always a chance of even the most unexpected thing happening and the fact those chances haven’t come to fruition is fascinating.
Since 2015, there have been 30 instances of a team being down 3-0, and 60 percent of those ended unceremoniously in a sweep. Only four (13 percent) even made it to Game 6, where the Hurricanes are now — with last year’s Dallas Stars being the first to even manage that in eight(!) seasons.
While the odds are never in the favor of a team down 3-0, they aren’t zero, either. At least they shouldn’t be. There’s a myth that a 3-0 deficit only happens to the worst teams, those that would be extremely unlikely to crawl out of such a hole to begin with, but it can happen to even the best of teams.
Before the series began, the 30 teams ranged from 17 percent underdogs to 77 percent favorites (hello 2019 Tampa Bay Lightning) based on series prices from Sports Odds History. Of the 30, 13 teams were expected to win from the onset. Based on that — and accounting for a lesser opinion of the team after losing three straight — the odds of at least forcing Game 7 ranged from four percent to 20 percent. The odds of coming back ranged from one percent to 13 percent.
On average, we’re talking a one-in-10 shot at forcing Game 7 and a one-in-five shot at winning the series after going down 3-0. Those are clearly minuscule odds, but over 30 series, those tiny odds add up.
Based on each team’s odds after being down 3-0, we should’ve seen three Game 7s with one or two full-blown comebacks. We’ve got zero instead. In short — we’ve been robbed.
Some will be quick to point out the human element of it all, and it’s a very fair point. Up 3-0, a lot of teams have shown the necessary killer instinct to close the series. Down 3-0, a lot of teams have folded at the prospect of the mountain ahead. Sometimes, the teams down 3-0 are simply not as good as they were expected to be from the jump. Or the team up 3-0 is a lot better.
As valid as those points may seem, the odds of not seeing a Game 7 for a team down 3-0 let alone a comeback is still very low — low enough that even real qualitative counters can’t explain it away. Given 30 instances with an average of a 10.6 percent chance of seeing a Game 7, there’s a 97 percent chance we should’ve seen at least one. A 5.2 percent chance of seeing a comeback over 30 instances gives us an 80 percent chance of seeing at least one on that front.
The odds of chaos have been high enough over the last decade; they just haven’t manifested. That can happen over small samples; 30 series definitely qualifies for that.
Over a larger sample, the odds do tend to even out, though, and that’s best exhibited from looking at the start of the salary cap era. There, the odds perfectly reflect reality.
From 2006 to 2014, there were 38 series in which a team went down 3-0 — but those teams clearly had a bit more fight in them. A higher percentage won at least one game (57 percent), two forced a Game 7 and lost (Detroit and Chicago in 2011), and two of those teams won (Los Angeles in 2014 and Philadelphia in 2010).
Their average odds? The same as the last decade: 11 percent to force Game 7 and five percent to complete the comeback.
Add up all the odds, and that nine-year period got the exact amount of dramatic chaos as expected: 4.1 Game 7s and 2.1 comebacks. It’s a stark contrast from what we’ve received over the last decade. Hockey fans are long overdue.
Overdue doesn’t mean it’s due to happen. It’s a fallacy to suggest there will be more Game 7s and comebacks after a team goes down 3-0 simply because it hasn’t happened in a while. That doesn’t make it more likely to happen in the near future. The odds, on average, are still about one-in-10 for a Game 7 and one-in-five for a comeback.
But we’re as close as we can get here with the Hurricanes.
For Carolina, specifically, the odds have changed after winning Games 4 and 5. Now it’s an over 60 percent chance of forcing Game 7 and an over 30 percent chance of completing the comeback. For the first time in a decade, we have a serious chance of witnessing history.
The odds are still heavily in the Rangers’ favor here up 3-2 and no one is counting out the Presidents’ Trophy champions from grabbing that necessary fourth win. But the Hurricanes have a great team too, one with a real chance of living up to their slogan: “cause chaos.”
(Photo: Joshua Sarner / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Sports
Pirates star pitcher makes unfortunate history after being taken out in middle of perfect game bid
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Jared Jones was flirting with Major League Baseball history on Wednesday night — he got it, but it was not what he originally envisioned.
The Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher retired the first 18 batters he faced, but he was taken out in the middle of his perfect game bid after six innings.
Now, the Pirates certainly have their reasons — the 24-year-old Jones hasn’t thrown more than 81 pitches in eight starts since returning May 20 after missing all of last season while undergoing ulnar collateral ligament internal brace surgery on May 21, 2025. He was yanked with 77 pitches and likely would have needed more than 100 pitches to record the 25th perfect game in MLB history.
Jared Jones of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitches during the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at PNC Park on July 8, 2026, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
However, Jones left the game after getting zero run support, so when the Atlanta Braves tacked on three runs late for a 3-0 victory, Jones instead found himself in the wrong chapter of the history books.
According to Opta Stats, Jones became the first pitcher in the modern era (since 1920) to pitch at least six perfect innings and not record a win.
“It does suck. Something’s cool coming on, but I’m on what? My eighth start off of surgery? I completely understand it, and it is what it is,” Jones told reporters after the game.
Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Jared Jones (17) makes his way to the field to warm up before pitching against the Atlanta Braves at PNC Park. (Charles LeClaire/Imagn Images)
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Jones said he didn’t entertain attempting to complete the perfect game.
“Not with the pitch count,” he said. “Not really ever expecting to go nine right now, so that was never in my head.”
Joey Bart, traded to the Braves from the Pirates on June 18, followed a double by Mike Yastrzemski with a 422-foot, two-run homer to left-center field off a slider from Dennis Santana. Drake Baldwin added an RBI single to center in the ninth for good measure.
It was the second time in less than a week that a pitcher was taken out of the game with a perfect bid through six innings — the Miami Marlins took Eury Perez out after seven innings in which he had 92 pitches. Perez, too, is in the midst of returning from injury and has surprisingly found himself right in the postseason mix.
He was pulled for Lake Bachar to start the eighth, and the Marlins allowed eight runs to the Athletics in the final two innings, but held on to win 9-8.
Jared Jones (17) of the Pittsburgh Pirates delivers a pitch during a MLB game against the Cincinnati Reds on June 27, 2026, at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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The Pirates are 4.0 games out of the final wild card spot, which is held by the Marlins.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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WASHINGTON — The Dodgers are scheduled to visit the White House on July 23 to celebrate their latest World Series title.
“President Trump is excited to welcome the Los Angeles Dodgers BACK to the White House to celebrate their World Series championship!,” White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement to The Times.
The date falls on a scheduled off day in the middle of a nine-game East Coast road trip for the Dodgers. The team will play three games in Philadelphia against the Phillies July 20-22 before ending the trip with a three-game series against the New York Mets July 24 to 26.
The visit continues a tradition from the Dodgers’ two previous World Series championships. They were hosted by President Biden in 2021 and President Trump in April 2025.
After the Dodgers claimed their second consecutive World Series title with a dramatic Game 7 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays, a visit to the White House was planned, but it wasn’t until Thursday that a date was officially booked and confirmed.
Questions swirled around whether players would decline the visit this year after it did not happen during a scheduled visit to Washington in April.
Kiké Hernández said in 2018 he was unsure he would have gone had the Dodgers won the World Series the previous year. Mookie Betts said he was undecided and needed to talk it over with his family when last year’s visit was announced. After winning his first World Series with the Boston Red Sox in 2018, Betts skipped their trip to the White House the following year during Trump’s first term.
Both players, along with every returning member of the 2024 team who was with the team during its road trip, participated in the visit. The only notable absence was first baseman Freddie Freeman, who remained in Los Angeles to nurse an ankle injury.
Manager Dave Roberts, who indicated in comments to The Times in 2019 he might not go to the White House if Trump was president, also participated in last year’s ceremony.
Asked at the Dodgers’ fan festival in January about the possibility of returning to the White House, Roberts told The Times’ Bill Shaikin: “For me, I stand by: I’m a baseball manager. That’s my job.”
“I was raised — by a man who served our country for 30 years — to respect the highest office in our country,” Roberts said. “For me, it doesn’t matter who is in the office, I’m going to go to the White House. I’ve never tried to be political. … For me, I am going to continue to try to do what tradition says and not try to make political statements, because I am not a politician.”
Clayton Kershaw, who retired after last season but was on Team USA for this year’s World Baseball Classic, told The Times in the spring that he was aware Dodgers fans are split over whether the team should visit the White House again this year, but he said he is looking forward to it.
“I went when President Biden was in office. I’m going to go when President Trump is in office,” Kershaw said. “To me, it’s just about getting to go to the White House. You don’t get that opportunity every day, so I’m excited to go.”
Times deputy sports editor Ed Guzman contributed to this report.
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All eyes were on Caitlin Clark on Wednesday night as she made her anticipated return from injury in a road matchup in Los Angeles.
But instead of a triumphant comeback, the Fever spent the entire night chasing the Sparks as Clark’s rough return fueled a 106-92 rout.
The superstar never found a groove, looking completely out of sync in her return from a back injury.
STEPHANIE WHITE GIVES CAITLIN CLARK STATUS UPDATE AHEAD OF FEVER-SPARKS, BUT HER NEXT MOVE RAISES QUESTIONS
Caitlin Clark huddles with teammates as the Indiana Fever battle the Sparks. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images) ((Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images))
Much of that disjointed performance falls squarely on head coach Stephanie White, who kept Clark on a ridiculously tight leash by limiting her to just 16 minutes. The stop-and-go approach could have sabotaged any chance for the phenom to establish a rhythm.
Clark finished with just 9 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists. Her minus-16 plus-minus told the story.
The Los Angeles Sparks were severely shorthanded, taking the floor without stars Kelsey Plum and Cameron Brink.
MERCURY’S NOW-DELETED SOCIAL MEDIA POST MOCKING CAITLIN CLARK DRAWS SCRUTINY AFTER STAR’S INJURY
Yet while a depleted Sparks roster played to win, Indiana spent the night over-managing its biggest asset.
With Clark on a minutes restriction and Aliyah Boston out of the lineup, Kelsey Mitchell was forced to shoulder the entire offensive burden.
Mitchell did her part, pouring in 29 points while shooting 5-of-9 from beyond the arc.
Caitlin Clark orchestrates the Fever offense as Indiana battles the Los Angeles Sparks in primetime action. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images) ((Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images))
But one hot hand couldn’t stop an efficient LA squad.
The Sparks shot 45% from three-point range, going 9-of-20 from deep to cruise to the 106-92 victory.
White’s next move is to sit Clark against the Mercury on Thursday while Boston returns.
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After Wednesday’s loss to a shorthanded Sparks team, it’s fair to question whether Indiana’s cautious approach is working. The Fever dropped to 12-9.
Caitlin Clark and Dearica Hamby face off as Fever and Sparks battle at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Photo by Tyler Ross/NBAE via Getty Images) ((Photo by Tyler Ross/NBAE via Getty Images))
Send us your thoughts: alejandro.avila@outkick.com / Follow along on X: @alejandroaveela
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