Maryland’s primary on Tuesday features a wildly expensive U.S. Senate election, a rematch for Baltimore mayor that pits incumbent Brandon Scott against former Mayor Sheila Dixon, and a hotly contested 3rd Congressional District race for a rare open seat.

Despite the drama and a relentless sea of campaign ads, analysts say overall voter turnout will likely lag behind other presidential election years — which often attract peak interest. That’s because the 2024 Democratic and Republican chief executive nominees are all but decided on. President Joe Biden is the presumed Democratic nominee, while former President Donald Trump is the anticipated Republican pick.

“People vote for the top of the ticket. When there is no presidential race at the top, turnout goes down precipitously,” said University of Baltimore professor John Willis, who was secretary of state in the administration of Democratic Gov. Parris Glendening.

“Senate, Congress and mayor will have some impact, but they’re not driving massive numbers,” he said.

Willis said statewide turnout may pale compared to the 2020 primary, when 48.7% of Democrats and 35.6% of Republicans voted. Biden had not quite clinched the nomination at the time of Maryland’s primary in June 2020. Meanwhile, a record number of mail-in ballots used by voters because of the pandemic particularly drove turnout that year.

Evidence of less enthusiasm this year was present in preliminary turnout numbers for mail-in voting and the state’s eight-day early voting period, which ended Thursday.

As of Thursday, just 151,503 Marylanders had cast ballots at early voting locations — just over 4% of the state’s nearly 3.7 million eligible active voters. Voting by mail, which has remained a frequently used option since the pandemic, has proved again to be a popular choice. As of 6 p.m. Thursday, local election boards across the state had received 275,529 mail-in ballots, although that was a little less than half of the 593,155 mail-in ballots delivered to voters.

Jared DeMarinis, Maryland’s election administrator, said it’s too soon to fully analyze turnout, but the state board continues to see voters shifting their voting habits, particularly since the pandemic. Early voting may be slow this year, but the state is on pace to see record use of mail-in ballots, he said.

For the 2022 gubernatorial general election, Maryland sent out 640,000 ballots, the most ever. As of Thursday, Maryland had 637,000 requests for mail-in ballots, he said.

“It’s getting close,” he said. “We’re definitely going to shatter it in November.”

DeMarinis cautioned that the sluggish return of those mail-in ballots, however, could mean slower election results. Only 120,000 mail-in ballots have been counted, or canvassed, so far, he said, because election officials switched gears to run early voting operations from May 2 through Thursday.

While voters may be slow to cast their ballots, it’s not for a lack of action in some contests. The pace of the U.S. Senate race, in particular, has quickened as each candidate increasingly challenges the other’s credentials.

David Trone, a third-term U.S. representative who is largely self-funding his campaign, has generated voter attention by spending $57 million so far in the Democratic primary — a massive sum for a state Maryland’s size.

“Certainly the deluge of Trone ads may increase turnout, if nothing else, just by reminding more people when Election Day is,” said Flavio Hickel, an assistant political science professor at Washington College on the Eastern Shore.

While early polls showed Trone ahead, the race has become close, according to a poll released Thursday.

The May 6-8 survey by Emerson College Polling/The Hill/DC News Now found 42% of 1,115 registered voters supported Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, while 41% supported Trone. Twelve percent were undecided. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

That’s compared with Emerson College’s February poll, which showed Trone leading Alsobrooks 32% to 17%.

Alsobrooks has slammed Trone for having donated money to Republicans, including Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas, which has one of the nation’s most restrictive abortion bans. Trone, co-founder of the Total Wine & More retail chain, says the contributions were for business rather than political reasons and that he has contributed heavily to Democrats.

On April 29, Trone lent his campaign an additional $3.1 million, according to Federal Election Commission records, and he has since stressed in the strongest terms yet that he believes he has a better chance of being elected in November than Alsobrooks.

Either Trone or Alsobrooks is expected to face Republican Larry Hogan, a former two-term governor, in the November election.

“Trone will beat Larry Hogan,” Trone’s campaign said in a recent mailer to voters. “Alsobrooks will lose,” it said.

The rising tensions have led to fears that the party will have a harder time uniting after the primary, when “the real unpredictability starts” in the matchup against Hogan, former Maryland Democratic Party Chair Yvette Lewis said. She is one of four former state party leaders backing Alsbrooks. On Wednesday, those former leaders called out Trone during a Montgomery County event for what they see as divisive campaign tactics.

Hogan, a former two-term governor, was a surprise entry into the race in February after Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell encouraged him to run. He is expected to easily win in a seven-candidate GOP field.

With majority control of the U.S. Senate hanging in the balance in November, Hogan’s entry “may be inducing Democrats to pay more attention to the primary than they might have otherwise,” Hickel said.

Alsobrooks would be Maryland’s first Black U.S. senator. There are no women among Maryland’s congressional delegation of two senators and eight representatives.

Trone, Alsobrooks and Hogan are vying for the seat being left open by the retirement of Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin, who did not endorse in the Senate primary.

The 3rd Congressional District race has also heated up as the election draws nearer.

It pits Harry Dunn — a former U.S. Capitol Police officer who helped defend the building when supporters of Trump stormed it on Jan. 6, 2021 — against a wide field that includes two state senators and three delegates.

Dunn, author of a book about his Jan. 6 experiences, has raised more than $4 million. State Sen. Sarah Elfreth, an Anne Arundel County Democrat, has raised $1.5 million, the second-highest total in the race. Dunn has attracted national media attention and been endorsed by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, but he has not sought elected office before. The district is split between Howard and Anne Arundel counties, with a piece of Carroll County, as well.

Like the 3rd District race, the outcome of the contest between Scott and Dixon — at the head of a 12-person field — is difficult to predict.

The leading pair are in a rematch of sorts of the 2020 mayoral race, when they also vied for the office. Scott topped Dixon in the primary that year by about 3,100 votes amid a crowded field of 24 Democrats that included an incumbent mayor.

2024 voter guide

This time, the field is half that size and even the upper tier of candidates has shrunk. Former prosecutor Thiru Vignarajah dropped out of the race last week. A poll conducted in April for The Baltimore Sun, University of Baltimore and FOX45 showed Scott and Dixon to be the top contenders. Of likely voters surveyed, Scott had 38% to Dixon’s 35% — with the margin of error at plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

Roger Hartley, dean of UB’s College of Public Affairs, said the smaller field makes the matchup feel fresh, particularly given that Scott won last time with just 29.6% of the vote.

“It’s a two-person race versus being a 12-person race,” Hartley said. “That can make it very, very different than the last one where they faced each other.”

As is often the case with Baltimore mayoral races, the 2024 contest is heavily focused on crime. Scott touts the city’s reduction in homicides in 2023 — fewer than 300 people were killed for the first time in nearly a decade. Dixon argues Scott has allowed quality-of-life crimes to go unaddressed. Democratic State’s Attorney Ivan Bates joined Dixon’s cause, endorsing the former mayor and calling Scott out for what Bates said was a lack of partnership between the prosecutor’s office and Scott’s City Hall.

Scott has led in fundraising and spending, dropping almost $1 million on the contest since the start of the year. Dixon has spent $653,100 since January. A PAC supporting Dixon’s campaign (funded in large part David Smith, a co-owner of The Baltimore Sun and chairman of Sinclair Broadcasting Group) supplemented Dixon’s effort, running ads that try to paint Scott as an inexperienced leader. Scott’s ads seek to remind residents of Dixon’s criminal past. She was forced to leave office in 2010 after an embezzlement conviction.

For Lisa McKay, 52, a city resident casting an early ballot Thursday, Dixon’s conviction was less of an issue than McKay’s concerns about juvenile crime in recent years. Baltimore suffered its worst mass shooting last summer when two people were killed and 28 more wounded, many of them children. McKay, a Maryland Transit Administration claims adjuster, listed addressing crime as one of her priorities.

“Even with the gift cards, I thought she was a pretty good mayor,” McKay said, referring to the scandal that led to Dixon’s removal. “I know we have to give the candidates time, but I haven’t seen the changes I was hoping for with Scott.”

Renee Johnson, another early voter at Mount Pleasant Church and Ministries in Northeast Baltimore, said she voted for Alsobrooks in the Senate race, but was more focused on the mayoral matchup. The nursing assistant, who lives in the Northeast Baltimore neighborhood of Belair-Edison, said she voted for Scott due to the connection she’s had with him since he worked as a liaison for then-Council President Stephanie Rawlings-Blake.

“He did a lot for the district,” she said. “He’s a positive person. He still does a lot. When I can’t get ahold of him, his secretary always sends a message to him for me.”

Baltimore voters saw the race for mayor likely tighten May 1 with Viganrajah’s exit. Running his fourth campaign for citywide office in the last seven years, Vignarajah threw his support to Dixon, granting her a much-talked about endorsement one day before the start of early voting.

Hartley said the movement of Vignarajah’s voters will be a factor, but is one of several likely to impact the mayoral race. He also pondered how turnout efforts, including those driven by the up-ballot Senate candidates, could potentially sway Baltimore voters.

Voting may have gotten off to a slow start, but the election is now in the spotlight, he said.

“I do think city voters are paying attention as much as in any primary,” he said. “It’s a tight race and certainly with the movement of endorsements and everything else, you’ve got a lot more city residents taking a look at this election.”

Baltimore Sun reporter Lia Russell contributed to this article.