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After one round of play, our brackets are coated in chalk. Only three teams seeded 11th or higher remain. No team seeded 13th or worse won a game.

Regardless, our upset-predicting model, Slingshot, still has a job to do. So it’s on to the second round, and the search for different kinds of upsets. Can a 9-seed take out a top-seed? What about a No. 2 vs. No. 7 contest? We’ve already examined Saturday’s matchups. Now it’s on to Sunday.

No. 2 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 10 New Mexico Lobos

Upset Chance: 21.3 percent

Our model sees Michigan State as roughly 11 points per 100 possessions better than New Mexico. The Lobos, then, need to find a way to generate more possessions to make up for that edge. So let’s talk about turnovers.

The Lobos force opponents to cough the ball up on 20.4 percent of possessions, 32nd in the country. That stands out as an even bigger edge because they also take great care of the ball on offense (15.7 percent). The Spartans, by contrast, give it up more often (16.6 percent) than they take it away (16.4 percent). If New Mexico can match what UCLA did in a two-point win over Sparty in February — the Bruins won the turnover battle 16-3 — then it can win.

But that’s a lot to ask, especially against the country’s No. 5 defense in adjusted efficiency. New Mexico doesn’t shoot particularly well, so its best chance to score will be in transition. Thankfully, the Lobos play at the country’s sixth-fastest tempo. Normally, that’s the wrong strategy for underdogs (fewer possessions are better if you’re less talented), but in this case, playing every possession against Michigan State’s half-court defense would be a death sentence.

No. 4 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 12 Colorado State Rams

Upset Chance: 20.4 percent

The Terps authored one of the more impressive performances of the first round, dismantling Grand Canyon, 81-49. (That was also, quietly, one of Slingshot’s better calls. Grand Canyon’s moneyline odds of +360 implied a 21.7 percent chance of winning; we pegged it at just 12.4 percent.)

The Rams should offer a greater challenge. Fresh off their “non-upset” win over fifth-seeded Memphis (Colorado State was actually favored), the Rams have a shooter’s chance to knock off the Terps. A 3-point shooter, that is. Since the Rams don’t employ most of the possession-building tactics preferred by successful killers of the past, they will have to rely on their one area of extreme variance: long-range shooting. For the season, they’ve taken 43 percent of their shots from downtown (making 36.6 percent). Against Memphis, they increased that focus, taking 30 of their 57 shots from 3-point range (and making 11).

Maryland excels in all sorts of analytic areas and is particularly adept at combating Colorado State’s greatest strength. The Terps limit both 3-point attempts (only 36 percent of opponents’ shots) and accuracy (30 percent). So when you tune in on Sunday, focus on the arc. That’s where the game will be decided.

No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 9 Baylor Bears

Upset Chance: 17.2 percent

There aren’t a lot of weaknesses in the Blue Devils’ arsenal. They’ve lost one game since late November, won the ACC Tournament without Cooper Flagg in the final and boast the second-highest net rating in the history of KenPom. But our model gives Baylor a fighting chance.

Why? Well, the Bears’ strengths are the ones you want to see from an underdog: offensive rebounding (35.8 percent, 20th in the nation), forcing turnovers (19 percent, 81st) and playing slow (320th in tempo). Duke, meanwhile, has one potential issue that hasn’t manifested much this season but could be a problem in a one-and-done setting: They shoot more 3s than you’d like to see from a safe giant. They take more than 45 percent of their shots from deep, and while they shoot them at a sizzling 38 percent clip, that does introduce variance into their performance.

There are also a couple of non-model factors to watch. First, you’ll hear plenty about Baylor’s Jeremy Roach, who played four years at Duke and certainly won’t be intimidated. Ditto for big man Norchad Omier, who faced Duke four times at Miami. Second, while Flagg’s injury garnered outsized attention, Duke lost Maliq Brown in that same game, and he remains out. The 6-foot-9 reserve is one of the country’s best defenders. He has an elite ability to switch onto guards, and his active hands cause countless deflections. He changed the game in Duke’s win at North Carolina and his absence makes Duke more vulnerable against the pick-and-roll.

While eight of the 10 most similar games in our model’s history were decisive wins for the favorite, two went to the underdog: Wisconsin over Villanova in 2017 and Wichita State over Gonzaga in 2013. Duke is still a significant favorite according to Slingshot, but there’s a path to a Baylor upset: hope Duke is cold from deep, put Khaman Maluach and Patrick Ngongba in plenty of pick-and-rolls and attack the offensive glass.

No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 7 Saint Mary’s Gaels

Upset Chance: 16.5 percent

Here’s an idea of what’s working against St. Mary’s. These are the 10 Bracket-Breaker games in our model’s database most similar to the Gaels’ upcoming matchup with Alabama:

First of all, let’s admire the math behind Slingshot — engineered by Furman professors Liz Bouzarth, John Harris and Kevin Hutson. The giants in those similar games sure do resemble Alabama: high-scoring teams that earned a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. Second, check out the results: The favorite won nine of those 10 games, including seven by double-digits. Unless you want to cling to that lone upset, a 21-point thrashing of UNC by Texas A&M, that chart doesn’t offer much hope for St. Mary’s.

It’s not that the Gaels are a terrible underdog. They are the nation’s second-best offensive-rebounding team (40.2 percent) and play at the fifth-slowest pace. But they force few turnovers and shoot a low number of 3-pointers, limiting their variance. In matchups against teams like Alabama, which can push the pace and score inside and out, St. Mary’s style doesn’t have a strong track record.

Perhaps Randy Bennett will find a way to control the tempo, Augustas Marciulionis and Mikey Lewis will get hot from deep, and Mitchell Saxen will corral the rebounds when they do miss. It’s a plausible theory. History just doesn’t support it.

No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 8 UConn Huskies

Upset Chance: 15.5 percent

This is a titanic second-round matchup — the two-time defending national champs against a No. 1 seed that is playing as well as anyone in the country — and will draw plenty of eyeballs. But Slingshot just shrugs.

As strange as it is to evaluate the Huskies as an underdog, that’s their role in this game. And it’s not one they are particularly suited to play. We know this UConn team isn’t as good as the prior two versions, but it’s also not as good as Florida. That means it needs to take risks. But that’s not how Dan Hurley built this squad. UConn plays slowly and rebounds well at the offensive end — that’s good, per Slingshot — but it doesn’t force turnovers, coughs it up often on offense and has the nation’s 92-ranked adjusted defense.

By contrast, Florida profiles as an exceptionally safe giant because of its outstanding offensive rebounding (38.8 percent, sixth in the country), fast pace and ability to take care of the ball. Just like Colorado State, then, UConn will have to increase its reliance on 3-pointers to have a realistic chance to win. Can the Huskies do it? Yes. Is it likely? Not according to Slingshot.

(Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images)

On April 12, Maryland’s Historic St. Mary’s City will open the doors of its reconstructed Brick Chapel. Visitors will be able to explore the fully completed interior, including the altar, altar rail, and tabernacle, for the first time since its closure over 300 years ago.

The Brick Chapel, originally built in 1667, has been dormant for over three centuries. Its reopening marks the culmination of decades of archaeological research, historical study, and preservation efforts dedicated to one of Maryland’s sites of religious freedom. 

At 1:00 p.m. on the day of the opening, Sheriff Steve Hall will ceremonially unlock the doors, symbolically reversing the 1704 closure by Sheriff John Coode. This act invites the public to step into Maryland’s cradle of religious freedom.

Travis G. Parno, PhD, will serve as the Master of Ceremonies for the opening event and will also emcee the lecture series, discussing future plans. An afternoon lecture series will begin at 1:30 p.m. in the Visitor Center Auditorium at 18751 Hogaboom Lane, St. Mary’s City, Maryland. Seating for both the opening session and the lecture series is first come, first served; there is no reserved seating, according to The BayNet.

Henry Miller, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at Historic St. Mary’s City, will speak on history and goals. “The Chapel Exhibit is a major step in telling the public about two of Maryland’s most significant legacies, Liberty of Conscience and the Free Exercise of Religion as official policies of a government,” he said, according to The Southern Maryland Chronicle. He added, “At the same time, it also represents the beginning place of the Catholic Faith in the English colonies that became the United States.”

The Brick Chapel is not just a building; it is a time capsule that includes additional exhibit elements relating the story of how archaeological study has contributed to the understanding of 17th-century religious practice. Artifacts like lead cames and Jesuit rings guided the rebuild of the chapel, according to Historic St. Mary’s City archives cited by The Southern Maryland Chronicle.

Since excavations began in the 1930s, over 200 burials have surfaced nearby, according to site records. These burials whisper tales of early settlers and reveal 17th-century faith practices. The site was rediscovered through archaeological excavations in the 20th century and has been reborn through grit and archaeology.

After its closure in 1704 by order of the royal governor, the bricks of the Brick Chapel were repurposed for other structures, having been scattered by royal decree. The reopening of the chapel marks a homecoming for a site that shaped America’s early tolerance, according to The BayNet.

Historic St. Mary’s City is set on the banks of the St. Mary’s River. The museum spans hundreds of acres, with ongoing archaeological excavations, historical reconstructions, and exhibits. Through research, education, and storytelling, Historic St. Mary’s City connects the present with the past. It offers a deeper understanding of the people, cultures, and ideas that shaped early America.

The article was written with the assistance of a news analysis system.

Today’s March Madness matchup between the No. 4 Maryland Terrapins and No. 13 Grand Canyon Antelopes has the potential to be one of the best games of the Round of 64.

The Terrapins have been circled for tournament glory since conference play, with a dynamic offense and a Top-40 defense out of the Big Ten. They run into an exciting Antelopes squad that nearly flipped the bracket upside down last year and have the potential to do it again in 2025.

I’m a big fan of GCU, at least in the first 20 minutes. That’s where you’ll find my best Grand Canyon vs. Maryland predictions and March Madness picks for Friday, March 21.

Who will win Grand Canyon vs Maryland?

While I think GCU can put a scare in the Terps, Maryland will advance to the Round of 32. The odds currently give the Terrapins an implied win probability of 86%. 

Grand Canyon vs Maryland prediction

My best bet: Grand Canyon 1H +6 (-110 at bet365)

Flash back to last March and the Grand Canyon Antelopes are standing toe-to-toe with Alabama in the Round of 32. Grand Canyon did lose that matchup with the Crimson Tide, but the experience let Bryce Drew & Co. know they can play with anyone in the country.

This season, Grand Canyon could have a better shot at getting back to the Round of 32 and beyond.

Tyon Grant-Foster had an up-and-down year due to injury but is healthy for this postseason run and has support with transfer JaKobe Coles sharing the scoring load. All in all, GCU has four players scoring double figures.

The Antelopes up-tempo attack is fueled by chaos on the defensive end. Grand Canyon holds foes to the 26th-lowest effective field goal rate and it sucks opponents in with its frenetic pace, leading to 15 forced turnovers per contest. The Lopes then flip those miscues into buckets, scoring almost 16 POTOVs an outing.

If these attributes sound familiar, it’s because the Maryland Terrapins are cut from a very similar cloth. 

The Terrapins have the No. 6 defense in the country and are excellent at transforming turnovers into points (18 POTOV). Maryland also gets scoring from multiple sources, with the now infamous “Crab Five” featuring every starter scoring 12-plus points per game.

So why stick to the first half spread with GCU?

Grand Canyon comes out swinging, scoring 38.4 points in the first half (29th in the country), and its talent and defense will keep things close in the opening 20 minutes. The Antelopes own the second best first-half defensive rating in the country (behind only Houston) and sit just ahead of Maryland in that derivative metric.

The biggest difference between these two programs is the Terrapins’ outside shooting. Maryland can get streaky from distance but once the Big Dance nerves settle, I expect the Terps to start taking and making more shots from the perimeter. They’ll make adjustments at halftime, and their surplus of skills will eventually tip the scales.

Grand Canyon has managed to cover the spread in just 13 of its past 34 games (38%) but has covered the 1H spread in 19 of those same outings (56%). The Antelopes own an average 1H margin of +7.2 but see that tighten to +1.7 in the second half.

Full game projections range from Maryland -14 to -7 with my number at Terps -10.5. This spread got as high as Maryland -11.5 before coming down a point. However, the first half line jumped from GCU +5.5 to +6 and doesn’t reflect just how strong the Lopes are from the tipoff.

Grand Canyon vs Maryland same-game parlay (SGP)

Grand Canyon 1H +7.5

Under 71.5 1H

Ja’Kobi Gillespie 2+ threes

The Antelopes put Maryland on its heels in the first 20 minutes. The SGP menu offers +7.5 as the closest 1H derivative.

We have the No. 2 and No. 3 1H defenses in the country. Let’s say points come at a premium in the opening frame.

Gillespie will hit two or more triples to push the Terps ahead in the second half. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Grand Canyon vs Maryland odds

Grand Canyon vs Maryland live odds

Grand Canyon vs Maryland opening odds

• Spread: Grand Canyon +11 | Maryland -11
• Moneyline: Grand Canyon +464 | Maryland -621
• Over/Under: Over 150.5 | Under 150.5

Odds courtesy of bet365

Grand Canyon vs Maryland betting trend to know

Grand Canyon has covered the 1H spread in 19 of its last 34 games (+2.75 Unit /7% ROI) while going 13-21 ATS on the full-game spread. Find more college basketball betting trends for Grand Canyon vs. Maryland.

How to watch Grand Canyon vs Maryland

Grand Canyon vs Maryland key injuries

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