Science
Dementia May Not Always Be the Threat It Is Now. Here’s Why.
Joan Presky worries about dementia. Her mother lived with Alzheimer’s disease for 14 years, the last seven in a memory-care residence, and her maternal grandfather developed dementia, too.
“I’m 100 percent convinced that this is in my future,” said Ms. Presky, 70, a retired attorney in Thornton, Colo.
Last year, she spent almost a full day with a neuropsychologist, undergoing an extensive evaluation. The results indicated that her short-term memory was fine — which she found “shocking and comforting” — and that she tested average or above in every cognitive category but one.
She’s not reassured. “I saw what Alzheimer’s was like,” she said of her mother’s long decline. “The memory of what she went through is profound for me.”
The prospect of dementia, which encompasses Alzheimer’s disease and a number of other cognitive disorders, so frightens Americans that a recent study projecting steep increases in cases over the next three decades drew enormous public attention.
The researchers’ findings, published in January in Nature Medicine, even showed up as a joke on the Weekend Update segment of “Saturday Night Live.”
“Dementia is a devastating condition, and it’s very much related to the oldest ages,” said Dr. Josef Coresh, director of the Optimal Aging Institute at NYU Langone Health and the senior author of the study. “The globe is getting older.”
Now the findings are being challenged by other dementia researchers who say that while increases are coming, they will be far smaller than Dr. Coresh and his co-authors predicted.
Using data from about 15,000 Americans over age 55, collected at four research clinics around the country from 1987 through 2020, Dr. Coresh’s team projected a lifetime dementia risk much higher than previous studies had: 42 percent, though most of that risk didn’t emerge until after age 85.
The higher lifetime number probably reflected the study’s reliance on a more diverse sample than earlier researchers had used, Dr. Coresh said, and more dementia cases identified through in-depth questionnaires, regular phone calls, medical records and death certificates.
The researchers applied their risk calculations to the U.S. population and estimated that the number of people who would develop dementia each year would roughly double, to about a million by 2060, from 514,000 in 2020.
Eric Stallard, an actuary and co-director of the Biodemography of Aging Research Unit at Duke University, read the study and thought the team “seemed very competent at their analysis” of individual risk.
But when it came to the projection that cases would double, which assumed that the incidence of dementia would remain stable over the next 40 years, “I don’t believe it,” Mr. Stallard said.
“The notion that the number of people with dementia will double over the next 25, 30 or 35 years due to the aging of baby boomers is widespread, it’s pervasive — and it’s wrong,” he added.
He and two other Duke researchers recently published a commentary in JAMA pointing out that the age-specific prevalence of dementia in this country had steadily declined for 40 years.
“If your risks are lower than your parents’ risks and this trend continues, you won’t see the doubling or tripling of dementia that’s been projected,” said Dr. Murali Doraiswamy, director of the Neurocognitive Disorders Program at Duke and a co-author of the JAMA article.
To be clear, experts agree that the number of people with dementia will climb in coming decades, simply because the disorder rises so steeply with age and the number of older adults in the United States will increase.
But Mr. Stallard estimates that the increase will be more like 10 to 25 percent by 2050. “It will still be a significant challenge for the health system in the U.S.,” he said.
The Duke group relied on its own long-term study of people over age 65, with more than 21,000 respondents in 1984 and about 16,000 in 2004, plus later data from the national Health and Retirement Study and the National Health and Aging Trends Study.
Their analysis found that among 85- to 89-year-olds, for instance, the proportion with dementia was about 23 percent in the cohort born in 1905. In those born 10 years later, the figure had dropped to about 18 percent.
By the time Americans born in 1935 reached their late 80s, about 11 percent had dementia; the projection for those born from 1945 to 1949 is now about 8 percent.
To Dr. Coresh, whose primary interest was in individual risk, the assumption that past declines would continue at about the current rate “would be great, but is quite an optimistic, dramatic decrease,” he said in an email.
Yet in another longitudinal study of older adults in England and China, published in Nature Aging last year, “we also found these quite marked improvements in more recently born cohorts,” said the lead author, Dr. John Beard, a medical epidemiologist at the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University.
“You would expect the increase in the absolute numbers of people with dementia in the U.S. will be less than we feared,” Dr. Beard said.
What has led to the decrease in dementia, also seen in several European countries? Often cited explanations include rising education levels, reduced smoking and improved treatment for high blood pressure and high cholesterol.
The Lancet Commission on dementia, intervention and care has developed a list of 14 modifiable risk factors, including greater use of hearing aids and reduced air pollution, that could still lead to greater declines.
Yet the reverse could also happen. If earlier and more widespread testing increases the number of dementia diagnoses, or if the definition of dementia broadens, rates will increase, Dr. Doraiswamy noted. Increasing life expectancy would have the same effect.
Obesity and diabetes, more common in recent decades, could lead to more dementia, but much-touted new drugs that reduce them could blunt that trend — if people can get them.
“None of this is inevitable,” said Dr. Gill Livingston, a psychiatrist at University College London who leads the Lancet Commission. “It depends on what we do.”
Public health policy makes a major difference, she noted, and, “The U.S. is in a time where policy is changing enormously.”
Dementia rates might rise, for example, “if people have less access to health care, so they are less likely to get their blood pressure treated and their high cholesterol treated,” Dr. Livingston said.
Slashed Medicaid coverage could lead to that result. So could a rollback of environmental policies, “if air pollution increases because of fossil fuels,” she added.
Already, dementia afflicts some American populations far more than others, researchers point out. Older women and Black people face greater risk, along with those who carry the APOE4 gene associated with Alzheimer’s disease.
Health disparities could mean that “affluent people will see lower rates of dementia” because of the new diabetes and obesity drugs, Dr. Doraiswamy said. “People who can’t afford them and whose conditions are not well-managed will see rates go up.”
The debate about how many older adults will develop dementia in coming decades, and about how individuals, families, government and the health care system should respond, will likely continue.
So will Ms. Presky’s fears.
For now, she enrolls in lifelong learning classes, takes walks and yoga classes despite orthopedic problems, listens to podcasts and reads a lot of history and fiction. She and her husband take in theater in New York and Phish concerts on the West Coast and will soon be heading to London and Paris.
Still, her advance directive contains many provisions about dementia. “I remain pessimistic,” she said, noting that her mother was diagnosed at 77. “I have seven more years before I meet her fate.”
Science
Parental mental health — not medication — drives autism correlation, new study finds
A sweeping new review of prenatal antidepressant use underscores a finding that has surfaced repeatedly throughout the last decade: While parental depression is strongly linked to child neurodevelopmental disorders, taking antidepressants during pregnancy does not appear to significantly increase a child’s risk of autism.
In an analysis of 37 separate studies covering more than 25 million pregnancies, a research team from the University of Hong Kong found that children born to women who took antidepressants while pregnant were indeed more likely to later be diagnosed with autism or attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).
But when the researchers took into account confounding factors such as a family history of neurodevelopmental disorders or mothers’ preexisting mental health conditions, the correlation disappeared.
The data showed that children born to women with a history of depression were more likely to be diagnosed with autism or ADHD, regardless of whether their mother took psychiatric medication. Children were also more likely to be diagnosed with autism and ADHD if their fathers took antidepressants during their gestation, even if their mothers did not — an association that suggests a genetic link, not a pharmacological one.
The results were published this month in the journal the Lancet.
“Our findings are consistent with current clinical guidelines, which generally support continuing antidepressant treatment during pregnancy when it is clinically indicated,” said Dr. Wing-Chung Chang, a psychiatry professor at the University of Hong Kong and the paper’s senior author. “Our findings do not provide strong evidence that prenatal antidepressant exposure causes neurodevelopmental disorders.”
The possibility that antidepressant use in pregnancy may play a role in neurodevelopmental conditions has been a source of anxiety for many expectant parents since at least 2015, when a much-publicized Canadian study observed that women who took certain antidepressants later in pregnancy were about twice as likely to have an autistic child than women who did not take the drugs.
Multiple studies since then have also identified a correlation between a woman’s use of antidepressants during pregnancy and her child’s later diagnosis of autism, and to a lesser extent, ADHD.
But ending the analysis there overlooks a crucial distinction, researchers say: the possibility that the association actually is between the neurodevelopmental disorders and depression, not the medication.
Autistic people of all ages are significantly more likely than their neurotypical peers to be diagnosed with mental health conditions such as depression or anxiety. Large-scale population studies have found that autistic adults are up to three times as likely to have depression compared with non-autistic people.
The reasons for mental health symptoms in autistic people are varied and complex, and the challenges of navigating a world designed for a different way of thinking may play an important role. But research has also identified multiple genetic profiles and biological pathways common to autism and mood disorders, and it’s likely that both conditions are at least partially the result of family genetics.
“The mental health of your family tree is in some way statistically associated with your risk of autism,” said Brian K. Lee, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at Drexel University.
Neither depression nor autism causes the other. Lee compared their frequent co-occurrence to the pairing of fiery red hair and pale, sunburn-prone skin: two highly heritable traits that can easily occur independently in a given individual, but that often travel together through family trees.
“What the literature has shown us so far is that while there does, at face value, appear to be an association of slightly increased risk of autism in mothers who take antidepressant medications, when you control for the underlying depressive disorder that risk goes away,” said Dr. Kathryn Erickson-Ridout, a senior psychiatrist for the Permanente Medical Group and research scientist with the Kaiser Permanente Division of Research. “This evidence shows us that most likely, the biological pathways that are disrupted in major depression are also important for autism.”
Erickson-Ridout compared the chilling effect of the 2015 Canadian study on psychiatric care for pregnant women with the anxiety around vaccines sparked by Andrew Wakefield’s since-retracted 1998 paper inaccurately linking autism to the mumps, measles and rubella shot.
The Canadian study did not contain major errors as Wakefield’s paper did, though some critics argued at the time that it didn’t sufficiently control for confounding factors such as maternal depression.
But its media coverage often failed to make clear both the low overall risk of autism — 1.2% of babies born to women who took selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors during their second or third trimester were later diagnosed with autism, compared with 0.7% of babies in the general population — or weigh the risk of antidepressant use against the risks of untreated depression.
Its effects persist today. Last year, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration convened a controversial panel on prenatal SSRI use. Nine of the panel’s 10 members were researchers, doctors or psychologists who have previously questioned the drugs’ safety or criticized antidepressant use in general. Among them was Anick Berard, an epidemiologist and lead author of the 2015 Canadian paper.
Suicide is the second-leading cause of maternal mortality in the U.S., with homicide being the first.
Any discussion of the risks of antidepressant medications has to be weighed against the potential harms of abruptly ceasing or refusing to treat a potentially life-threatening mental health condition, said Dr. Katie Unverferth, a reproductive psychiatrist and medical director of UCLA’s Maternal Mental Health Program.
“Pregnancy is such an anxious time at baseline — so many new things are happening, and your body’s changing, and you want to make sure you’re doing the right thing for yourself and your developing baby,” Unverferth said. “This study just provides additional reassuring data.”
Science
Video: Fireball Falls From Space Over Erupting Volcano in the Philippines
new video loaded: Fireball Falls From Space Over Erupting Volcano in the Philippines
By Alisa Shodiyev Kaff and Christina Kelso
May 26, 2026
Science
Orange County leaders say previously evacuated area is safe. Experts say risks linger
After six days of trying to avoid an overheating chemical tank erupting into a giant fireball or spilling thousands of gallons of toxic substances at an aerospace facility in Garden Grove, Orange County leaders announced Tuesday that the risk of catastrophic explosion had largely been eliminated.
Local authorities lifted a large section of the evacuation zone surrounding GKN Aerospace and allowed tens of thousands of residents to return.
Firefighters sprayed more than 9 million gallons of water onto a piping-hot tank of flammable methyl methacrylate (MMA), drastically bringing down the vessel’s temperature — but not before the high temperatures resulted in high pressure and a crack in the side of the tank, which acted as a relief valve.
Interim Orange County Fire Authority Chief TJ McGovern indicated in a Tuesday afternoon community meeting that evacuation zones might soon shrink further. He noted that crews had stopped spraying water onto the tank and were in the process of assessing whether the vessel’s temperature had stabilized.
“Once we know that temperature is stabilized, we will be taking the fire risk off the table,” he said. “If there’s no fire risk, our evacuation zones are going to shrink.”
McGovern said, about 5 p.m., that officials were “hoping that we’re going to have a very positive outcome very soon.” He asked the community for continued patience over the next few hours as crews worked to validate the initial data they were seeing regarding temperature stabilization.
The Orange County health officer and fire officials have insisted there have been no vapors or chemical leaks over the course of the six-day crisis. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said its air monitors surrounding the facility had not detected methyl methacrylate or other toxic airborne chemicals (known as volatile organic compounds).
But environmental experts remained skeptical that no toxic substances had been released. Andrew Whelton, a Purdue University professor who studies environmental disasters, said the ruptured chemical tank would have acted similar to a soda can with a hole punched in it.
“I find it hard to believe you can heat up a tank with a [chemical] like methyl methacrylate, see that it clearly cracked under pressure and think that nothing came out it,” Whelton said. “That defies logic.”
It’s possible, Whelton said, that spraying copious amounts of water on the tank had effectively suppressed much of the toxic vapors and the airborne risk.
Fire officials had previously said that the tank of MMA was experiencing thermal runaway, a chain reaction resulting in an uncontrollable spike in temperatures. They said the situation was likely to end in an explosion or chemical spill.
Whelton said an explosion is still possible.
To guard in the event of a spill, authorities set up sandbag barriers to block the chemical from storm drains that lead to the ocean.
The Orange County Fire Authority said it was also testing water that had been hosed onto the tank to ensure it didn’t contain elevated levels of contaminants.
Jane Williams, executive director of California Communities Against Toxics, warned that MMA is just one of the chemicals being stored on the site. She fears there is a danger from other chemicals.
The company in 2024 reported that, in addition to MMA, it had released thousands of pounds of flammable chemicals, including methyl ethyl ketone and methanol n-butyl alcohol, according to records from the South Coast Air Quality Management District.
GKN Aerospace had previously been cited for failing to disclose flammable chemicals at other facilities.
In 2007, the U.S. EPA alleged the company stored about 8,000 pounds of hydrofluoric acid and 34,000 pounds of nitric acid at a Kent, Wash., facility — but neglected to report these stockpiles to the appropriate government agencies.
A year earlier, the company settled with the EPA over allegations that it had improperly stored ignitable hazardous waste at a facility near San Diego.
“For me, this is not about MMA,” Williams said. “You have a company with a bunch of chemicals, and it lost containment, and it’s across from residences. I do not trust this company to disclose what else is on their site. I do not trust them with first responders. I do not trust them with my health.”
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