Maryland
Should Michigan State, Maryland fear second-round upsets? Here’s the case for underdogs.
The Athletic has live coverage of 2025 Men’s March Madness
After one round of play, our brackets are coated in chalk. Only three teams seeded 11th or higher remain. No team seeded 13th or worse won a game.
Regardless, our upset-predicting model, Slingshot, still has a job to do. So it’s on to the second round, and the search for different kinds of upsets. Can a 9-seed take out a top-seed? What about a No. 2 vs. No. 7 contest? We’ve already examined Saturday’s matchups. Now it’s on to Sunday.
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 10 New Mexico Lobos
Upset Chance: 21.3 percent
Our model sees Michigan State as roughly 11 points per 100 possessions better than New Mexico. The Lobos, then, need to find a way to generate more possessions to make up for that edge. So let’s talk about turnovers.
The Lobos force opponents to cough the ball up on 20.4 percent of possessions, 32nd in the country. That stands out as an even bigger edge because they also take great care of the ball on offense (15.7 percent). The Spartans, by contrast, give it up more often (16.6 percent) than they take it away (16.4 percent). If New Mexico can match what UCLA did in a two-point win over Sparty in February — the Bruins won the turnover battle 16-3 — then it can win.
But that’s a lot to ask, especially against the country’s No. 5 defense in adjusted efficiency. New Mexico doesn’t shoot particularly well, so its best chance to score will be in transition. Thankfully, the Lobos play at the country’s sixth-fastest tempo. Normally, that’s the wrong strategy for underdogs (fewer possessions are better if you’re less talented), but in this case, playing every possession against Michigan State’s half-court defense would be a death sentence.
No. 4 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 12 Colorado State Rams
Upset Chance: 20.4 percent
The Terps authored one of the more impressive performances of the first round, dismantling Grand Canyon, 81-49. (That was also, quietly, one of Slingshot’s better calls. Grand Canyon’s moneyline odds of +360 implied a 21.7 percent chance of winning; we pegged it at just 12.4 percent.)
The Rams should offer a greater challenge. Fresh off their “non-upset” win over fifth-seeded Memphis (Colorado State was actually favored), the Rams have a shooter’s chance to knock off the Terps. A 3-point shooter, that is. Since the Rams don’t employ most of the possession-building tactics preferred by successful killers of the past, they will have to rely on their one area of extreme variance: long-range shooting. For the season, they’ve taken 43 percent of their shots from downtown (making 36.6 percent). Against Memphis, they increased that focus, taking 30 of their 57 shots from 3-point range (and making 11).
Maryland excels in all sorts of analytic areas and is particularly adept at combating Colorado State’s greatest strength. The Terps limit both 3-point attempts (only 36 percent of opponents’ shots) and accuracy (30 percent). So when you tune in on Sunday, focus on the arc. That’s where the game will be decided.
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 9 Baylor Bears
Upset Chance: 17.2 percent
There aren’t a lot of weaknesses in the Blue Devils’ arsenal. They’ve lost one game since late November, won the ACC Tournament without Cooper Flagg in the final and boast the second-highest net rating in the history of KenPom. But our model gives Baylor a fighting chance.
Why? Well, the Bears’ strengths are the ones you want to see from an underdog: offensive rebounding (35.8 percent, 20th in the nation), forcing turnovers (19 percent, 81st) and playing slow (320th in tempo). Duke, meanwhile, has one potential issue that hasn’t manifested much this season but could be a problem in a one-and-done setting: They shoot more 3s than you’d like to see from a safe giant. They take more than 45 percent of their shots from deep, and while they shoot them at a sizzling 38 percent clip, that does introduce variance into their performance.
There are also a couple of non-model factors to watch. First, you’ll hear plenty about Baylor’s Jeremy Roach, who played four years at Duke and certainly won’t be intimidated. Ditto for big man Norchad Omier, who faced Duke four times at Miami. Second, while Flagg’s injury garnered outsized attention, Duke lost Maliq Brown in that same game, and he remains out. The 6-foot-9 reserve is one of the country’s best defenders. He has an elite ability to switch onto guards, and his active hands cause countless deflections. He changed the game in Duke’s win at North Carolina and his absence makes Duke more vulnerable against the pick-and-roll.
While eight of the 10 most similar games in our model’s history were decisive wins for the favorite, two went to the underdog: Wisconsin over Villanova in 2017 and Wichita State over Gonzaga in 2013. Duke is still a significant favorite according to Slingshot, but there’s a path to a Baylor upset: hope Duke is cold from deep, put Khaman Maluach and Patrick Ngongba in plenty of pick-and-rolls and attack the offensive glass.
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 7 Saint Mary’s Gaels
Upset Chance: 16.5 percent
Here’s an idea of what’s working against St. Mary’s. These are the 10 Bracket-Breaker games in our model’s database most similar to the Gaels’ upcoming matchup with Alabama:
The 10 Most Similar Games
| Year | Favorite | Underdog | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2007 |
No. 1 North Carolina |
No. 9 Michigan St. |
North Carolina |
81-67 |
|
2009 |
No. 1 North Carolina |
No. 8 LSU |
North Carolina |
84-70 |
|
2022 |
No. 1 Arizona |
No. 9 TCU |
Arizona |
85-80 |
|
2021 |
No. 1 Gonzaga |
No. 6 USC |
Gonzaga |
85-66 |
|
2019 |
No. 1 Gonzaga |
No. 9 Baylor |
Gonzaga |
83-71 |
|
2018 |
No. 2 North Carolina |
No. 7 Texas A&M |
Texas A&M |
86-65 |
|
2008 |
No. 1 North Carolina |
No. 9 Arkansas |
North Carolina |
108-77 |
|
2015 |
No. 2 Gonzaga |
No. 7 Iowa |
Gonzaga |
87-68 |
|
2015 |
No. 1 Duke |
No. 7 Michigan St. |
Duke |
81-61 |
|
2018 |
No. 2 Duke |
No. 11 Syracuse |
Duke |
69-65 |
First of all, let’s admire the math behind Slingshot — engineered by Furman professors Liz Bouzarth, John Harris and Kevin Hutson. The giants in those similar games sure do resemble Alabama: high-scoring teams that earned a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. Second, check out the results: The favorite won nine of those 10 games, including seven by double-digits. Unless you want to cling to that lone upset, a 21-point thrashing of UNC by Texas A&M, that chart doesn’t offer much hope for St. Mary’s.
It’s not that the Gaels are a terrible underdog. They are the nation’s second-best offensive-rebounding team (40.2 percent) and play at the fifth-slowest pace. But they force few turnovers and shoot a low number of 3-pointers, limiting their variance. In matchups against teams like Alabama, which can push the pace and score inside and out, St. Mary’s style doesn’t have a strong track record.
Perhaps Randy Bennett will find a way to control the tempo, Augustas Marciulionis and Mikey Lewis will get hot from deep, and Mitchell Saxen will corral the rebounds when they do miss. It’s a plausible theory. History just doesn’t support it.
No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 8 UConn Huskies
Upset Chance: 15.5 percent
This is a titanic second-round matchup — the two-time defending national champs against a No. 1 seed that is playing as well as anyone in the country — and will draw plenty of eyeballs. But Slingshot just shrugs.
As strange as it is to evaluate the Huskies as an underdog, that’s their role in this game. And it’s not one they are particularly suited to play. We know this UConn team isn’t as good as the prior two versions, but it’s also not as good as Florida. That means it needs to take risks. But that’s not how Dan Hurley built this squad. UConn plays slowly and rebounds well at the offensive end — that’s good, per Slingshot — but it doesn’t force turnovers, coughs it up often on offense and has the nation’s 92-ranked adjusted defense.
By contrast, Florida profiles as an exceptionally safe giant because of its outstanding offensive rebounding (38.8 percent, sixth in the country), fast pace and ability to take care of the ball. Just like Colorado State, then, UConn will have to increase its reliance on 3-pointers to have a realistic chance to win. Can the Huskies do it? Yes. Is it likely? Not according to Slingshot.
(Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images)
GLEN BURNIE, Md. (WBFF) — An office building in Glen Burnie was evacuated on Thursday afternoon after its underground parking garage experienced a shift in one of its floors.
The Anne Arundel County Fire Department initially responded to the 7300 block of Ritchie Highway around 2:30 p.m. on July 9 after reports of a partial building collapse.
However, the department later clarified that there has been no collapse of the 10-story building.
Officials said crews are evaluating the building’s structural integrity after work was being performed in the parking garage.
All occupants were safely evacuated, and no injuries have been reported, according to Fire Captain Jenny Macallair.
The fire department is asking drivers to avoid the area while crews continue their assessment.
FOX45 News has a crew on the way to the scene, and we will provide updates as they become available.
See America’s most iconic hot dogs
Welcome to the United States of Hot Dogs! We’ve compiled a few of the best hot dogs eaten across the country.
Although Maryland is often celebrated for its seafood, one over-the-top creation has carved out its own loyal following among locals and visitors alike: The Baltimore-style hot dog.
Sausage is merely its first layer of meat. It’s wrapped in a thick slice of fried beef bologna and piled high with toppings.
It’s proof that while hot dogs are truly an All-American food, their real power lies in how they adapt to local tastes.
Hot dogs were “invented” in the U.S. after German sausages were served in buns. They’re a staple of baseball games — the all-American pastime. And they are truly a democratic food: nearly anyone can afford to enjoy them.
But even more, hot dogs are American because of their adaptability, reflecting the ingenuity and diversity that gives our country such a rich culinary tapestry.
“You can tell the story of America through hot dogs. There are probably other things you could use, other objects or icons, but I think hot dog is a really good one,” said Bruce Kraig, a Ph.D. food historian and author of “Hot Dog: A Global History’ and ‘Man Bites Dog: Hot Dog Culture in America.”
Regional hot dog toppings, from chili in Cincinnati to celery salt in Chicago to jalapeños in the Southwest, tell distinct stories of place.
Here in Baltimore, Maryland, our contribution to the United States of Hot Dogs is the Baltimore-style hot dog.
What is a Baltimore-style hot dog?
At its core, the Baltimore dog is a meat-on-meat masterpiece. It starts with a kosher all-beef sausage that is split, fried and wrapped alongside thick, charred bologna slices.
It’s traditionally topped with raw onions and yellow mustard, with a pickle spear on top or on the side. Some variations include the addition of sweet relish, ketchup or cheese.
“In this creation, grease from the bologna mixes with the grease from the hot dog, and both find their way into the bread to form an unforgettable aroma, taste and aftertaste — and 200 points on your cholesterol count,” Baltimore historian Gilbert Sandler told The Baltimore Sun in a 2019 story.
Where did the Baltimore-style hot dog come from?
Its origins are often somewhat unclear, but it’s believed to have originated during the Great Depression when, according to TasteAtlas.com, “people added bologna slices to the hot dog in order to make it a fuller, heartier meal.”
Jewish delis along Baltimore’s historic “Corned Beef Row” were looking for ways to offer working-class customers a filling, calorie-dense meal for a small chunk of change, leading to the birth of the Baltimore-style hot dog.
First becoming popular in the early 1940s at Mandell and Ballow deli, the bologna-wrapped hot dog spread throughout Baltimore, The Sun reported.
“Despite being a nutritionally questionable combo of two of the world’s least-healthful meats, the bologna dog continues to be a local favorite, enjoyed without apology,” FoodRepublic.com wrote in 2023.
Four best places to try a Baltimore-style hot dog
Attman’s Delicatessen: A Baltimore institution since 1915, Attman’s version of the Baltimore-style hot dog sits at the top of its menu. Its dog — for $7.99 — comes with your choice of mustard, relish, chopped onions and ketchup. Details: 1019 East Lombard St., Baltimore; 410-563-2666, attmansdeli.com.
Weiss Deli: Another Baltimore staple, Weiss serves speciality sandwiches and, of course, the Baltimore-style hot dog. You can customize the $7.49 dog with up to eight toppings, but its most popular version comes with just deli mustard and raw onions on top of the bologna-wrapped sausage. Details: 1127 East Lombard St., Baltimore; 410-276-7910, baltimoreweissdeli.com
The Dog House Carryout: A legendary landmark in Baltimore, The Dog House Carryout has been slinging its classic comfort food for more than 75 years. You can get a quarter-pound all-beef hot dog for $6.95, with bologna added for an extra $1.25. The dog comes with your choice of mustard, relish, onions and ketchup. Details: 617 Fallsway, Baltimore; 410-685-7269, thedoghousebaltimore.com
Killa Dogz: Killa Dogz, one of the more modern hot dog spots in the city, offers a wide variety of options, including what it calls the “Bmore” dog. At $7, its version is deep fried, wrapped in bologna and “served on a squishy bun with mustard.” Chili and cheese are among the top ways to customize its dog. Details: 6106 Belair Rd, Baltimore; 443-438-7822. killadogz.com.
Jennifer Borresen contributed the interactive graphic to this story. She is a graphic journalist at USA TODAY, specializing in explanatory graphics and illustrations in various fields, including politics, science, weather and entertainment.
BALTIMORE, MD. – A Hanover man was sentenced to 15 years in federal prison followed by lifetime supervised release on Wednesday for attempting to provide material support to ISIS, federal prosecutors announced.
Michael Sam Teekaye, Jr., 22, pleaded guilty in January 2026 after unknowingly revealing a plot to travel abroad and fight for the designated foreign terrorist organization to an undercover law enforcement officer, prosecutors said.
What we know:
Court documents reveal that between March and October 2024, Teekaye coordinated travel arrangements with a Somali ISIS fighter. His itinerary detailed a flight departing from Baltimore/Washington International Airport (BWI) to Turkey, with subsequent travel through Ethiopia to cross into Somalia.
FBI agents arrested Teekaye at BWI on October 14, 2024, after he cleared airport security, according to previous FOX 5 D.C. reporting.
READ MORE: Maryland man arrested for allegedly attempting to join ISIS
Leading up to his arrest, court documents say that Teekaye prepared for his departure by practicing at a Maryland shooting range and attempting to purchase an assault rifle, which was blocked due to an existing state probation status.
Days before his arrest, Teekaye sent the undercover officer a photograph of himself wearing a mask and wielding a large machete, declaring a choice of “victory or martyrdom.”
Following his arrest, prosecutors say Teekaye made multiple unprovoked statements to law enforcement vowing to resume his violent efforts upon his eventual release from custody and threatening the lives of prison guards.
Dig deeper:
Federal authorities noted that Teekaye established a secondary plan to execute domestic terrorist attacks targeting Jewish individuals and institutions supporting Israel within Maryland if his international travel failed. A digital forensic search of his phone uncovered specific search histories focused on Jewish organizations and community members in Howard County, alongside queries regarding home break-ins and escaping murder charges.
A local rabbi impacted by the surveillance spoke during the sentencing hearing regarding the threat’s toll on the community.
The Source: Information from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Maryland and previous FOX 5 D.C. reporting.
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