No. 3 seed Kentucky will be a betting underdog on Sunday in Milwaukee against No. 6 seed Illinois in what should be one of the most entertaining matchups of the second round of the NCAA Tournament. 

The Fighting Illini, who were pegged as a dark horse in the Midwest Region, are favored in the second round against the Wildcats, as both teams looked the part in the first round with double digit victories. 

Can Illinois make good on being a favorite? What about a sky high total in the 170’s? Let’s break down this game from a betting perspective below. 

Spread

Moneyline

Total: 170.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Illinois

Kasparas Jakucionis: The freshman guard had it all working in the first round against Xavier, scoring 16 points with nine rebounds and 10 assists. While he was still plagued by turnovers, he had six in the win, the conservative Kentucky defense will not pose as much of a threat in that department. He can be in for another big effort on Sunday. 

Kentucky

Otega Oweh: The Oklahoma transfer continued his torrid second half of the season, scoring 20 points with eight rebounds and six assists as Kentucky pulled away from Troy in the second half to advance. Oweh is a force at getting to the rim with an emerging perimeter game, how will he continue his NCAA Tournament performance? 

With two fast pace offenses that have bucket getters all along the roster, I’m going to side with the over in this one. 

While the Illinois defense is formidable, the Kentucky offense will be comfortable against the opponents drop coverage. The Wildcats are flush with players that can score from off the dribble, one of the best offenses in the country in dribble jump shots while also able to use its off-ball motion to put pressure on Illinois’ over-playing defense that wants to run teams off the three-point line. 

Meanwhile, Illinois’ up-tempo attack should give Kentucky fits in transition, similar to how Alabama did in SEC play. The Fighting Illini have some similarities to the Crimson Tide, who scored 102, 96 and 99 points in two games against the Wildcats. 

On the year, Kentucky has allowed KenPom top 20 offenses in adjusted offensive efficiency to score to allow nearly 94 points per game in seven instances, and I believe with Illinois’ up-tempo attack, ranking top 20 in the country in adjusted tempo, this game will fly over the total. 

PICK: OVER 170.5 (-115, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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MILWAUKEE — Kentucky basketball is on the doorstep of the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend.

But to advance to the Sweet 16 of March Madness for the first time in six years, UK and coach Mark Pope will have to scrape past Illinois.

The Wildcats sealed their place in the Midwest Region’s second round by virtue of a 76-57 win over Troy in Friday’s first round. The Fighting Illini took the court next, downing the Musketeers, 86-73.

The Wildcats’ foe, the Illini, are the region’s 6-seed. Illinois enters Sunday’s game with a 22-12 record on the season. The Illini finished in a tie for seventh in the Big Ten during the regular season, going 13-7. Illinois went 1-1 during the league tournament in Indianapolis, topping Iowa in its opener but falling to Maryland in the quarterfinals.

The Wildcats and Illini will battle Sunday evening at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee.

Here’s what to know about Kentucky’s second-round matchup against Illinois:

Illinois has won nearly everything there is in the sport.

Except an NCAA championship.

Yes, the Illini were retroactively awarded titles in 1915 (per the Premo-Porretta Power Poll) and 1943 (by the Helms Athletics Foundation). But neither of those were won on the court.

The closest Illinois has been to that elusive title came in 2005, when it lost in the national championship game to North Carolina. The Illini have appeared in the Final Four on four other occasions; Illinois’ five appearances are tied for second most (alongside Oklahoma) among schools without a championship, trailing Houston’s six.

Friday’s triumph gave the Illini 46 victories in the Big Dance. Among schools that have yet to win a title, that’s third most, behind Purdue (50) and Gonzaga (47).

There will be a familiar face to Kentucky on the opposing sideline Sunday: Illinois associate head coach Orlando Antigua spent eight seasons, in two separate stints, on former coach John Calipari’s staff in Lexington. Antigua now is in his first season at Illinois.

Then there is Tomislav Ivišić.

No, he’s never suited up for UK.

But his twin brother, Zvonimir Ivišić, was part of Kentucky’s program last season. Zvonimir played in 15 games for the Wildcats off the bench in 2023-24, averaging 5.5 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in 11.7 minutes. He then entered the transfer portal and followed Calipari to Arkansas.

Tomislav has had a stellar season for Illinois, leading the team with 11 double-doubles. His most recent: Friday’s win, when he had 20 points and 10 rebounds.

Illinois coach Brad Underwood is in his eighth season guiding the program. After back-to-back sub-.500 seasons to begin his tenure (2017-18 and 2018-19) as he was rebuilding the program, Underwood has molded the Illini into one of the country’s most consistent winners.

Consider:

• It is one of four schools nationally with 20 or more wins during the regular season each of the past six seasons;
• It is the Big Ten’s winningest program in league play in that same span;
• It is the only team in the conference with a winning record against conference competition six years running;
• It has captured three Big Ten titles in the past five years;
• And during the Underwood era, it boasts four All-American selections and 19 All-Big Ten honorees (seven first-teamers).

Buy Kentucky NCAA Tournament tickets vs. Illinois

Kentucky 91, Illinois 89: Expect plenty of points in this one. The Wildcats and Illini are among the top 10 in Division I in scoring offense … and outside the top 250 in scoring defense. UK has found ways to win close games all season. Here’s betting Mark Pope’s outfit strikes upon a winning formula in a tight contest featuring double-digit lead changes, ties and swings in momentum before the Illini’s last-chance 3 at the buzzer grazes the rim.

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The first NCAA Tournament game of the Mark Pope era is finally here. No. 3 seed Kentucky faces No. 14 seed Troy on Friday night at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. ET, CBS).

The Cats are coming off a loss to Alabama in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals while the Trojans won the Sun Belt Conference Tournament to advance to the NCAA Tournament for just the third time in program history. Troy is led by senior guard Tayton Conerway, the Sun Belt Player of the Year, who averages a team-high 14.3 points and 4.8 assists per game. Sophomore forward Thomas Dowd is the Trojans’ leading rebounding with 6.8 boards per game.

Can Pope’s Cats exorcise some March demons by getting out of the first round? The KSR crew is ready to weigh in, after a message from today’s sponsor.

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Tyler Thompson

The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament has not been kind to Kentucky recently, especially the first round. If you woke up with nerves about another early exit, I’m sure you’re not alone. How could you not after the past few years?

That’s why it was so good for me to be in the arena to see Kentucky go through the paces yesterday. Mark Pope’s Cats seemed loose and focused ahead of their first NCAA Tournament game. None of them were part of the Kentucky teams that lost early (as Andrew Carr pointed out, without those early exits, none of them would be here either). Several have NCAA Tournament experience of their own, most notably Lamont Butler, who has played 11 games in the Big Dance and will be back on the floor after his most recent shoulder injury. After coming from mostly smaller schools, these Cats are used to being the underdogs and are eager to extend this special season.

I’ve already written two paragraphs and I’m just now getting to Troy, which kind of shows you where my head is at in this matchup. The Trojans are a good offensive-rebounding team and switch defenses a lot, ranking No. 7 nationally in steal percentage. They are not good shooters, ranking No. 339 in the country in three-point percentage (30.3%). That latter stat makes me think they won’t be able to keep up with the Cats if Kentucky’s shots are falling. I think they will be, and without the fanbase’s anxiety, the Cats will take care of business to advance to the second round, allowing us all to breathe a big sigh of relief.

Score: Kentucky 83, Troy 70

Nick Roush

I am the victim of Kentucky basketball privilege. For years, we entered the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament without a care in the world. John Calipari was taking Kentucky to the Sweet 16. It was inevitable. There weren’t any nerves until the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

Now look at us. We are scarred from post-pandemic postseason basketball. Two early upsets have made Kentucky a punchline. Fortunately, two losses to double-digit seeds can just be a blip on the radar. A third in five years would make it a trend. Mark Pope must avoid this trend.

Troy has a knack for giving the ball away, which helps because Kentucky isn’t great at taking it away. As we learned from the last two upsets, the most valuable tool for a Cinderella is a player that can go nuclear from three. Tayton Conerway is a good basketball player, but that’s not this team’s M.O. We may have to sweat a little more than we’d like to in the first half, but ultimately these early upsets do not become a trend in Milwaukee.

Score: Kentucky 88, Troy 75

Adam Luckett

You can feel the anxiety in the Big Blue Nation as the Cats find themselves in a No. 3 vs. No. 14 matchup for the second year in a row in a region where there seems to be a clear path to multiple wins.

Can Kentucky avoid another embarrassing first weekend upset in Milwaukee?

The answer is yes because this Troy team struggles to score (No. 221 nationally in effective field goal percentage, No. 339 in three-point field goal percentage). Head coach Scott Cross will need his team to get to 80-plus points to win this game. That can only happen with Kentucky turnovers and a surprisingly hot shooting performance.

Even 80-85 points might not be enough if Kentucky takes care of the basketball. Troy’s pressure defense and switching should lead to matchup advantages for UK. That will turn into open perimeter shots. If this becomes a good shooting variance game for the favorite, it could quickly become blowout city at Fiserv Forum.

The return of Lamont Butler is key in handling the Troy pressure. Pope’s offense creates open looks and has a good shooting performance. The Cats will play for their first Sweet 16 berth since 2019 on Sunday.

Score: Kentucky 87, Troy 69

Zack Geoghegan

Kentucky has the size and talent advantage in this one. Troy’s No. 93 ranking in KenPom rivals past opponents this season such as LSU (90th) and Lipscomb (82nd) — two teams the Wildcats beat by an average of 30 points. With a healthier Lamont Butler in the fold, UK should have little issue handling Troy’s ball pressure.

The Trojans do plenty of things well. They’re an elite offensive rebounding team and are excellent at racking up stocks (steals + blocks). But that’s come against Sun Belt competition. Troy’s tallest rotation player is 6-foot-9. The Trojans are a terrible three-point shooting team, but take a ton of them. They’re also prone to turnovers and don’t get to the free-throw line all that often. Outside of senior guard Tayton Conerway (a high-usage player), Troy doesn’t have anyone on the scouting report who should truly worry Mark Pope.

This should be a perfect tune-up opportunity for the ‘Cats. I understand why some will come into this game with endless nerves considering how the last few seasons played out, but this is an entirely new team and staff. Pope finally gets his first NCAA Tournament win as Kentucky cruises to the Round of 32.

Score: Kentucky 90, Troy 73

Jacob Polacheck

Well, here we are again. Kentucky is back for another No. 3 vs. No. 14 seed matchup in the NCAA Tournament. However, this time Mark Pope is at the helm.

With Lamont Butler back, I predict Pope will get his first-ever NCAA Tournament win on Friday night. Troy is a good offensive-rebounding team, but they’re undersized and have never had a matchup like Amari Williams. Troy has struggled with turnovers this year, and while Kentucky isn’t exactly known for forcing turnovers themselves, it’s an area that the Cats can exploit.

If Kentucky can slow both Tayton Conerway and Myles Rigsby, UK should be in a good position to win. The Cats just have too much firepower with the team now relatively healthy (outside of the season-ending injuries).

Troy head coach Scott Cross was nice enough to do an interview with KSR+ for Here Comes the Boom earlier this week. Sorry, but it’s not going to be enough. I’m picking the Cats by 20.

Score: Kentucky 91, Troy 71

Drew Franklin

My guard is up after recent early exits for the Wildcats, but like Troy’s head coach said in his preview of the game, last year and yesterday do not impact Kentucky versus Troy in 2025. Though I’m more cautious than I would’ve been before past tournaments, I still have strong confidence in Kentucky moving on without having to sweat out the first-round game. Troy lacks the 3-point shooting to keep up with Kentucky on the scoreboard, plus a glaring mismatch inside with Amari Williams, Brandon Garrison, Andrew Carr, etc.

I think Kentucky wins big, covering the 11.5-point spread and getting Mark Pope his first career NCAA Tournament win. Koby Brea will be the high scorer and Williams will keep Troy from dominating the glass like the Trojans did in the Sun Belt Conference.

Score: Kentucky 88, Troy 69

Jack Pilgrim

We shouldn’t feel this way, right? BBN has this irrational fear of all NCAA Tournament games, but especially the first one — two first-round exits in three years with zero second weekends since 2019 will do that to you. It’s time to turn the page on the old and embrace the new, bringing back the feeling of No. 3 seeds doing what they’re supposed to do against No. 14 seeds.

Yes, Troy is a top-70 defense ranked No. 30 in defensive EFG%, No. 18 in two-point defense, No. 38 in block rate and No. 7 in steal rate. The Trojans are also No. 6 nationally on the offensive glass. Good things! Deserving of a Sun Belt championship! But Kentucky is Kentucky for a reason, this group racking up eight top-15 wins and 11 Quad 1 victories entering March Madness. The Wildcats are back to full strength — this version of full strength in the post-Jaxson Robinson and Kerr Kriisa era — and that group is good enough to not just beat Troy, but beat Troy comfortably. You’re a double-digit favorite for a reason. Do something with it!

Lamont Butler is the team’s most valuable player and will have his ‘LaMarch’ moment at some point, but it’s the massive size advantage in Amari Williams and Andrew Carr that make the difference tonight in Milwaukee. They’re both way too big and skilled to not dominate in the frontcourt tonight.

Kentucky keeps the fun rolling in a statement win for Mark Pope — his first in the NCAA Tournament to get that monkey off his back.

Score: Kentucky 90, Troy 71

[3] Kentucky vs. [14] Troy: How to Watch, Listen

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Television: CBS (Kevin Harlan, Dan Bonner, Stan Van Gundy, Lauren Shehadi)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: The Varsity App
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 210 or 203
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tip-off, or join the conversation on KSBoard.