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Illinois vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Second Round

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Illinois vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Second Round


No. 3 seed Kentucky will be a betting underdog on Sunday in Milwaukee against No. 6 seed Illinois in what should be one of the most entertaining matchups of the second round of the NCAA Tournament. 

The Fighting Illini, who were pegged as a dark horse in the Midwest Region, are favored in the second round against the Wildcats, as both teams looked the part in the first round with double digit victories. 

Can Illinois make good on being a favorite? What about a sky high total in the 170’s? Let’s break down this game from a betting perspective below. 

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Moneyline

Total: 170.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Illinois

Kasparas Jakucionis: The freshman guard had it all working in the first round against Xavier, scoring 16 points with nine rebounds and 10 assists. While he was still plagued by turnovers, he had six in the win, the conservative Kentucky defense will not pose as much of a threat in that department. He can be in for another big effort on Sunday. 

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Otega Oweh: The Oklahoma transfer continued his torrid second half of the season, scoring 20 points with eight rebounds and six assists as Kentucky pulled away from Troy in the second half to advance. Oweh is a force at getting to the rim with an emerging perimeter game, how will he continue his NCAA Tournament performance? 

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With two fast pace offenses that have bucket getters all along the roster, I’m going to side with the over in this one. 

While the Illinois defense is formidable, the Kentucky offense will be comfortable against the opponents drop coverage. The Wildcats are flush with players that can score from off the dribble, one of the best offenses in the country in dribble jump shots while also able to use its off-ball motion to put pressure on Illinois’ over-playing defense that wants to run teams off the three-point line. 

Meanwhile, Illinois’ up-tempo attack should give Kentucky fits in transition, similar to how Alabama did in SEC play. The Fighting Illini have some similarities to the Crimson Tide, who scored 102, 96 and 99 points in two games against the Wildcats. 

On the year, Kentucky has allowed KenPom top 20 offenses in adjusted offensive efficiency to score to allow nearly 94 points per game in seven instances, and I believe with Illinois’ up-tempo attack, ranking top 20 in the country in adjusted tempo, this game will fly over the total. 

PICK: OVER 170.5 (-115, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Asia Boone will return to Kentucky for senior year

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Asia Boone will return to Kentucky for senior year


Kentucky women’s basketball guard Asia Boone will be returning to Kentucky for her senior season, she announced.

Boone, who was a two-time All-Conference USA player at Liberty before arriving at Kentucky, averaged 10.1 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game this season. She was originally the team’s sixth man and at times, served as the backup point guard to Tonie Morgan, but she earned a starting role later in the season as she started in 19 of Kentucky’s 36 games.

The 5-foot-8 guard is the second confirmed returner for the 2026-27 squad, joining All-SEC First Team center Clara Strack, who will also be a senior this upcoming season.

She was one of two players this season who broke Rhyne Howard’s program record for threes made in a single season. Amelia Hassett finished the year with 99 threes made, setting the new program record, but Boone was just behind her with 96 made threes on 263 attempts (36.5%).

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Boone’s highest-scoring game of the season was against Morgan State, when she had 21 points on 8-10 (5-7 3PT). She had 18 points in Kentucky’s win at LSU on New Year’s Day and topped that with a 19-point effort against Texas A&M on Feb. 12.

Want more Kentucky WBB Coverage? Join KSR+

KSR has been delivering UK Sports news in the most ridiculous manner for almost two decades. Now, you can get even more coverage of the Cats with KSR+. In the middle of a busy for the Kentucky women’s basketball program, now is the perfect time to join our online community. Subscribe now for premium articles, in-depth scouting reports, inside intel, bonus recruiting coverage, and access to KSBoard, our message board featuring thousands of Kentucky fans around the globe. Come join the club right now for 50% off an annual subscription.





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Where Kentucky turns following Donnie Freeman’s commitment to St. John’s

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Where Kentucky turns following Donnie Freeman’s commitment to St. John’s


Kentucky quickly made its move on Syracuse star transfer Donnie Freeman in the portal, making immediate contact and hopping on a Zoom call before getting a visit scheduled for the following week. The Wildcats emerged as the likely landing spot, fighting off Alabama and UConn for his services — only for St. John’s and Tennessee to throw their hats into the ring and make their own late pushes going into the weekend.

There was serious optimism in Lexington that Mark Pope had batted down those Hail Mary throws by the Red Storm and Volunteers with a potential public commitment coming Sunday, only for the afternoon to turn into evening without a peep. Then came the late-night chatter that Rick Pitino had tossed another deep ball toward the end zone, an offer Freeman couldn’t refuse to ultimately land his services as the No. 19 overall player and No. 5 power forward in the On3 Industry Transfer Portal Rankings. Kentucky had its chance to keep the bidding war alive and potentially flip the momentum back, but the fat lady has officially sung.

That’s a tricky predicament for Pope and the Wildcats, who already passed on Colorado transfer and Florida State pledge Sebastian Rancik to continue their pursuit of Freeman. That came after Magoon Gwath (DePaul) and DeSean Goode (Miami (FL)), two other confirmed targets, committed elsewhere, along with the departures of Mo Dioubate (LSU) and Andrija Jelavic (Ohio State) from Pope’s second roster in Lexington.

So, uh, who is left for the Wildcats? Let’s separate the potential candidates into four categories.

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“Gotta make Brad Stevens say no”

Two absolute gems remain at the position and could make all of the Pope Whiff doomers stop in their tracks: Iowa State’s Milan Momcilovic and Santa Clara’s Allen Graves. You know both names because Kentucky played each of them in the NCAA Tournament, the former knocking the Wildcats out in the Round of 32 and the latter nearly doing so with a dagger in the final seconds of regulation — only to be topped by Otega Oweh’s half-court miracle at the buzzer.

They’re ranked No. 1 and No. 3 at the position, respectively, and are obvious home-run hits if UK can make contact. The issue? Despite entering the portal, they prefer to keep their names in the draft and will likely do so with first-round guarantees. A return to college isn’t impossible for either — Graves sits at No. 32 in ESPN’s latest draft rankings while Momcilovic comes in at No. 43 — but you won’t even get a meeting without $5M as a starting point, with the bidding likely finishing at or near the $6M mark. Are you ready to back up the Brinks truck? That’s the only option if you want the prized forwards.

Now, if you’re looking for better value, Saint Mary’s Paulius Murauskas and Iowa’s Alvaro Folgueiras are both technically available, sitting at No. 2 and 11 at the position, respectively. Kentucky has had exploratory conversations with both players — the latter was seen as a serious target this time last offseason, as well — and the talent is there. Murauskas averaged 18.4 PPG and 7.6 RPG on 48/33/84 splits with the Gaels this season and earned All-WCC honors in each of the last two years. That would do the trick. Folgueiras averaged 8.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG and 2.2 APG for the Hawkeyes, but is most famous for hitting the game-winning three to beat Florida in the NCAA Tournament. Maybe not a can’t-miss superstar, but pretty darn solid for a pivot.

But, heavy emphasis on technically available — because they both have On3 RPM picks in favor of other schools. Murauskas is projected to follow his former St. Mary’s coach, Randy Bennett, to Arizona State, while Folgueiras is expected to land at *sigh* Louisville. They haven’t made public commitments, but the clock is ticking and Pope would have to make up a lot of ground in a hurry.

Both are highly unlikely to wear the blue and white.

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Realistic, but not a needle-mover

If you’re looking for somebody solid to join the fold, James Madison’s Justin McBride is the perfect candidate. Standing 6-7, 240 pounds following previous stops at Oklahoma State and Nevada, the versatile forward earned Third Team All-Sun Belt honors, averaging 15.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG and 1.5 APG on 49/40/78 splits as a junior in Harrisonburg. Before that, he averaged 7.8 PPG and 4.2 RPG as a sophomore with the Wolfpack and 2.5 PPG and 1.5 RPG as a freshman with the Cowboys.

Finding his fourth home in four years, McBride is scheduled to visit Lexington this week, he tells Jacob Polacheck of KSR+. That comes after a Zoom meeting with the staff last week.

He’s productive with experience as a journeyman, finally tapping into his potential as a former top-125 recruit out of high school after seeing his role increase as a junior. There is a lot to like there, but the idea was for the Plano, TX native to serve as a complementary plug-and-play backup, staggering minutes with the go-to starter. You absolutely take him, but with the idea that you still need much more.

Potential wildcards

No. 1 recruit Tyran Stokes is trending heavily toward Kansas — and he’s also more of a jumbo wing capable of playing 1-4 more than a true power forward — but the conversation starts there in terms of obvious names to upgrade talent on a roster desperate for upgrades. Whatever it takes if you’re Pope, no matter how unlikely.

The Wildcats have also been involved with No. 15 overall prospect Miikka Muurinen, who is undeniably talented, but there are maturity questions. North Carolina and Arkansas are among those to poke around, but there is a risk factor to keep in mind before automatically connecting those dots.

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Pope went overseas to find Jelavic, so maybe that’s the path? It’s possible, but easier said than done when looking for obvious star talent. That was supposed to be the 6-11 forward, coming in with multiple years of eligibility and committing to Kentucky after a single conversation — exactly what you’d want when going down that road. The Wildcats weren’t able to see that process through and there is no guarantee the next international find won’t have similar year-one hiccups.

You also can’t rule out that another wave of portal announcements won’t come over the next 24 hours before things close tomorrow at midnight. Auburn’s Sebastian Williams-Adams is an intriguing option that popped up Monday, making himself available following a successful rookie season on the Plains. He started in 21 of 36 games for the Tigers, averaging 6.8 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.5 assists in 27.2 minutes per contest as a former four-star prospect out of high school.

You’re hoping and praying at that point that something presents itself that fits and elevates Kentucky’s ceiling in 2026-27. Odds are good — and someone will want to take the big pile of cash in Lexington — but no guarantees beyond the options already in front of us.


One thing we know for sure? Kentucky’s starting power forward will not be Donnie Freeman, and the search continues for Mark Pope.



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Kentucky will get a visit from a forward with three-point upside

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Kentucky will get a visit from a forward with three-point upside


Over the weekend, it was reported that the Kentucky Wildcats and coach Mark Pope had interest in former James Madison forward Justin McBride. Now, per Jacob Polacheck of Kentucky Sports Radio, McBride will take a visit to Lexington.

The report states that McBride will visit with Kentucky on Wednesday, Apr. 22. He had previously stated that he wanted to visit, but had to clear up some transcript issues first. It appears that things are worked out there now.

McBride is a 6’8″, 230 lb forward who has versatility. He averaged 15.3 points and 5.6 rebounds last season, but also made 40% of his three-point attempts, making him the kind of stretch big Pope likes to use. He could start, or be a valuable player off the bench.

Pope needs some recruiting wins, and he needs some depth for next year’s team. Right now, there are still more questions than answers, and Big Blue Nation is getting restless. We will update this story after his visit and more news becomes available.

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