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Florida hurricane strike from this kind of storm very rare, but possible | Forecast

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Florida hurricane strike from this kind of storm very rare, but possible | Forecast


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The Waffle Houses haven’t even all reopened, but I’m sorry to tell you that the eastern Gulf Coast has to cope with yet another tropical threat this week.

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However, much as many storm-damaged Waffle Houses are serving a limited menu, so too will this round of potential Gulf activity be narrower in scope, impacts, and affected areas than horrific Helene.

Heavy rainfall in the Florida peninsula starting this weekend is the key peril, but the coastal flooding and wind risks to Central and South Florida are unfortunately nudging higher as well.

What to expect – and not to expect – from the brewing Gulf storm

Let’s be clear about what this threat is NOT going to be, before delving into what it might be.

First, this is not going to bring rainfall into the southern Appalachians or north Georgia. Thankfully, these decimated areas remain much drier than normal for at least the next week.

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Second, the Gulf environment does not favor another major hurricane forming. Third, steering winds blowing from west-to-east should keep anything that develops in the Gulf south of the tattered Big Bend and exhausted Panhandle. 

Additionally, there is no landfall threat from a formidable pair of storms in the Central Atlantic, Kirk and Leslie. Hurricane Kirk is 2024’s third Category 4 or higher storm, and the first to not grievously harm people.

Kirk (and to a lesser extent, Leslie) will create a heavy surf and rip current hazard at Atlantic beaches over the upcoming week, but otherwise be nice to look at from a distance as they curve out to sea over 1,000 miles from land. Here’s to you Kirk and Leslie, you are today’s real storms of genius.

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National Hurricane Center name or no name, storm will bring heavy rain to Florida

Unfortunately, not all tropical weather is going to follow that gallant example this week.

I’ve been watching another Central American Gyre (CAG) take shape over the southern Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean since last weekend, which has been lingering as a broad disturbance without focused convection.

Over the last couple of days, a concentrated dollop of rotation left over from the Eastern Pacific’s Tropical Depression 11-E has crossed southern Mexico and entered the southwestern Gulf relatively intact, gathering storms in the Bay of Campeche.

Over the weekend, this shot of energy may jolt the diffuse disturbance into doing what was less likely a few days ago: spinning up into a more organized, more tropical system on Monday or Tuesday, albeit one embedded in a complex, not purely tropical environment.

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If you’ve been following my forecasts, I’ve been discussing how the several fronts draped across the Gulf in the upcoming week means the structure of the system might be broader than that of a usual tropical storm or hurricane, and therefore it wasn’t clear whether the resulting system would qualify to receive a name from the NHC.

The fact that the Pacific disturbance has gotten in the mix and convection is consolidating on the southwestern side of the CAG tilts the odds towards a tropical storm developing, though its interaction with those nearby fronts means widespread rain impacts for Florida no matter whether the disturbance is or is not a named storm.

Possibility of a low-end hurricane strike on Florida peninsula is possible as Panhandle gets taste of autumn

The Gulf is generally a hostile place for tropical activity this week, particularly its northern half where the subtropical jet stream will be blowing west-to-east as a deep trough of low pressure digs into the East Coast.

In fact, after some rain chances through Monday, the Panhandle will be chilling on the other side of a protective cool front by Tuesday. As upper-level steering winds direct the low to the east-northeast across the southern Gulf, vertical wind shear is expected increase as it gains some latitude and approaches west-central or southwestern Florida midweek.

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Given the front to its north, the most probable path of the storm system is an east-northeastward track crossing the Florida coast somewhere between just north of the Tampa Bay region and the Keys, though that is a highly uncertain forecast at this stage.

If the disturbance comes together quickly through Monday while it is still in a favorable environment over the southern Gulf, hurricane intensity at a midweek landfall is on the table.

However, it is also perfectly plausible given the expected uptick in shear starting Tuesday that a less intense, broader, and weaker tropical storm, hybrid low, or convective frontal system may be the end result here. There are still a lot of possibilities, so check back in a few days for a better, or at least less uncertain answer.

Be ready for excessive rainfall in Florida, particularly along and south of I-4

The excessive rainfall that will be the most widespread impact of this storm system is a high confidence forecast across the various scenarios, however. Heavy rain will push east from the Gulf and into South and Central Florida peninsula starting Sunday, particularly along and south of I-4.

In Big Bend and north-central Florida, rainfall should be limited and end by Tuesday. With intermittent heavy rains continuing through at least midweek in South and Central Florida, seven-day accumulations there may generally exceed 5” and locally top 10”, and residents should be on alert for flash flood risks.

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We’ll wait and see how things play out before discussing potential wind or surge issues, other than to note that the coastal flooding threat is higher in the areas more likely to be south of the track and have onshore flow.

Still, this potential should be monitored from the entire Tampa Bay area and south, particularly as the region is still reeling from the aftermath of one of the most severe and widespread surge events on record along the peninsular Gulf Coast.

Little precedent for this kind of storm becoming a hurricane, but this season has defied the odds

One final note: there’s little precedent for hurricanes striking the Florida Gulf Coast in October on an east-northeast approach, which indicates the shearing influence of mid-latitude weather.

Most late-season Florida threats that developed in the southern Gulf hit as tropical storms or non-tropical lows. However, there are more things in heaven and earth than are dreamt of in climatology, and as we’ve learned once again in the past couple of weeks, the events of our weather past do not constrain the threats of the future.

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History also shows that Florida’s late-season hurricane risks remain high into late October, shifting south with time. Thus, South and Central Florida will need to pay close attention in the upcoming week, as hurricane season refuses to give us what we all want, and just let us eat our waffles in peace.

I’ll be back Monday with an update. Until then, keep watching the skies.

Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company providing forensic meteorology expert witness services, and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscriptions. Visit weathertiger.com for more information. Email Ryan Truchelut at ryan@weathertiger.com.



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Florida State Rep. Hillary Cassel speaks out

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Florida State Rep. Hillary Cassel speaks out


Florida State Rep. Hillary Cassel speaks out – CBS Miami

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Florida State Rep. Hillary Cassel is speaking out after deciding to change party affiliation.

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The Florida Panhandle has a 50% chance of snow on Tuesday. Latest forecast

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The Florida Panhandle has a 50% chance of snow on Tuesday. Latest forecast


A blast of Siberian air and back-to-back winter storms will send subfreezing temperatures in the 20s across North Florida and bring a high chance of snow to the Florida Panhandle and a portion of the Big Bend and Jacksonville areas.

“The cold outbreak will occur right smack in the middle of what is historically the coldest part of the winter,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Larson said.

The first of two winter storms expected to impact the southeastern United States will bring showers and a possible thunderstorm to the Florida Panhandle starting late Friday night and continuing through Saturday, according to AccuWeather.

The second winter storm will be colder and snowier – even in Florida, which is the only contiguous U.S. state not to see snow this winter.

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North Florida has a 50% chance of snow

The National Weather Service and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model are now in agreement as the chance of snow creeps to 50% in the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.

The chance of snow diminishes eastward across the Sunshine State. Tallahassee has a slight chance of rain and snow showers before 10 a.m. on Tuesday and a possible mix of rain and snow later that night. The ECMRWF model puts those chances around 30-40%.

Jacksonville does not currently have a chance of snow, according to the NWS, but the ECMRWF model shows a sliver of a chance, between 10-20%.

How cold will it get in Florida?

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Much of Florida will avoid the worst parts of the chill, according to AccuWeather. North Florida will see the coldest temperatures, but freezing temperatures will likely be felt even in Central Florida, too.

Here’s a look at temperatures in some of Florida’s regional hubs, according to AccuWeather’s Forecast:

  • Pensacola
    • Sunday: High 54, low 25
    • Monday: High 43, low 28
    • Tuesday: High 39, low 21
    • Wednesday: High 41, low 29
  • Tallahassee
    • Sunday: High 60, low 27
    • Monday: High 47, low 32
    • Tuesday: High 47, low 24
    • Wednesday: High 43, low 24
  • Jacksonville
    • Sunday: High 67, low 35
    • Monday: High 47, low 39
    • Tuesday: High 48, low 31
    • Wednesday: High 45 low 35
  • Orlando
    • Sunday: High 71, low 45
    • Monday: High 53, low 46
    • Tuesday: High 58, low 39
    • Wednesday: High 57, low 45
  • Tampa
    • Sunday: High 73, low 47
    • Monday: High 58, low 45
    • Tuesday: High 57, low 39
    • Wednesday: High 54, low 42
  • Miami
    • Sunday: High 81, low 65
    • Monday: High 70, low 66
    • Tuesday: High 74, low 61
    • Wednesday: High 66, low 63

Why is snow so rare in Florida?

The most basic answer is that subfreezing temperatures in Florida tend to be brought on by cold fronts, which generally produce dry air.

Florida’s best chance of seeing snow happens when a storm pulls in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico while cold air is being pushed from the north. Of course, if cold air is moving south, it’s likely pushing that moisture away from Florida, hence the conundrum.

The more complicated reason snow is rare in Florida is almost everything about Florida, from its geographical features to its proximity to the equator, discourages the conditions needed for snow.

Florida’s warm temperatures are the first problem. The second issue is that Florida, the Sunshine State, gets a lot of sunlight because of how close it is to the equator. That sunlight and warmer temperatures tend to keep sustained cold air at bay, preventing it from amassing in quantities for snow to form.

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Florida is also a pretty flat state, and its highest point, Britton Hill, is only about 345 feet above sea level. That doesn’t give cold air a lot of places to hang out.

Lastly, there’s the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf is a relatively warm body of water, and it acts as a large temperature moderator for Florida.

What’s needed for snow to form?

The conditions required to produce snow are typically generalized. Most people know that it needs to be at or below 32 degrees, which is considered the threshold for water to freeze. That’s not the only condition where snow can form, however.

Snow can still form even in temperatures as high as 33.8 degrees. There are occasions when a higher layer of atmosphere is slightly above freezing where the snowflake might start to melt as it passes through that layer but can still make it to the ground as snow.

Another special case is referred to as the “wet bulb” effect. The wet bulb temperature is the temperature air reaches when water evaporates into it. Snow can still manage to form if the height where the wet bulb temperature reaches freezing is less than 1,500 above the ground.

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In both special circumstances, the snow will be wetter and stickier than traditional fluffy and dry snow.



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Second arrest made in Florida bowling alley shooting that left off-duty ATF agent paralyzed: 'Senseless'

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Second arrest made in Florida bowling alley shooting that left off-duty ATF agent paralyzed: 'Senseless'


Florida authorities have charged a second person with attempted murder this week in connection with the December shooting of an off-duty federal agent that left him paralyzed.

The Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office arrested Tia Heyward, 23, on Wednesday after investigators determined she allegedly aided Christopher Smith, 18, in the Dec. 27, 2024, shooting of an off-duty Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) agent.

Heyward is charged with first-degree attempted murder with great bodily harm (accessory after the fact), aggravated battery with great bodily harm (accessory after the fact) and two counts of simple battery.

Smith, who was arrested hours later on Dec. 28, faces similar charges of first-degree attempted murder – discharging a firearm causing great bodily harm, aggravated battery causing great bodily harm with a deadly weapon, tampering with physical evidence and carrying a concealed firearm.

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POLICE OFFICER KILLED IN NORTH CAROLINA GROCERY STORE SHOOTING JUST DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS

Tia Heyward, 23, is accused of aiding Christopher Smith, 18, after he allegedly shot an off-duty ATF agent in the neck at a Florida bowling alley. (Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office)

FOX 13 Tampa Bay identified the ATF agent as Special Agent Matthew Murray, who serves with the bureau’s Tampa Field Division.

Murray was shot at approximately 11:07 p.m. on Dec. 27 at The Alley at Southshore in Riverview, Florida, after attempting to deescalate a fight between two men and a woman in the parking lot of the bowling alley.

He was out for a night of bowling with his wife, their children, and family friends, when they saw the fight break out while standing near the front door.

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Exterior of The Alley at Southshore

Off-duty ATF agent Matthew Murray was shot in the neck after attempting to deescalate a fight at The Alley at Southshore on Dec. 27. (Google Earth)

SUSPECT ACCUSED OF FATALLY SHOOTING HOUSTON DEPUTY IS SHOT AND KILLED BY POLICE

Murray’s wife said during a pre-trial detention hearing for Smith that her husband identified himself as law enforcement and told the group of people to go home, FOX 13 reported. One of them allegedly threw a bottle or cup at Murray, according to his wife. Meanwhile, Smith alleged that Murray hit him in the shoulder.

Smith is then accused of shooting Murray in the back of the neck. 

He was taken to Tampa General Hospital, where he underwent emergency surgery and remains in critical condition with permanent paralysis, Murray’s wife stated.

Smith allegedly fled the bowling alley in a Nissan Altima and was located by Hillsborough County deputies at a nearby home approximately seven hours later.

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Christopher Smith mugshot

Christopher Smith, 18, is charged with attempted murder, among other crimes, in the December shooting of off-duty ATF agent Matthew Murray. (Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office)

Smith has been behind bars since Dec. 28 and was denied bond earlier this month. Heyward is in jail on $42,000 bond.

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“Our detectives have worked tirelessly to ensure that all those responsible for this senseless act of violence are held accountable and face the consequences of their actions,” HCSO Sheriff Chad Chronister said in a statement. “Our prayers remain with the ATF agent as he courageously embarks on his road to recovery. His bravery and selflessness exemplify his dedication to protecting our community.”



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