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AP Election Brief | What to expect in Pennsylvania as a special election decides statehouse control

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AP Election Brief | What to expect in Pennsylvania as a special election decides statehouse control


Voters in suburban Philadelphia are set to decide party control of Pennsylvania’s state House of Representatives on Tuesday with their pick to replace a Democrat who resigned.

Also on the ballot in Pennsylvania are primary elections for state Supreme Court and Philadelphia mayor, with the winner of the Democratic primary all but sure to become the city’s next leader in this fall’s general election.

The race with the biggest immediate consequence is the special election in state House District 163 in Delaware County, a suburb of Philadelphia. Democrat Mike Zabel, who won by 32 percentage points in November, resigned after allegations of sexual harassment.

Democrat Heather Boyd, a former congressional and state legislative aide, faces Republican Katie Ford, a military veteran, school volunteer and behavioral therapist, in the special election.

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If Ford wins, and if Republicans hold on to a central Pennsylvania seat as widely expected in a second special election on Tuesday, the chamber will flip to GOP control.

Nine candidates are running in the Democratic primary for mayor of Philadelphia, and no one has stood out as the obvious front-runner. Among the top candidates: former City Council members Cherelle Parker, Helen Gym and Allan Domb; ShopRite franchise owner Jeff Brown; and former City Controller Rebecca Rhynhart.

Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans in the nation’s sixth largest city, so Tuesday’s winner will be an overwhelming favorite to win in November.

Democrats and Republicans across the state will also choose nominees for the state Supreme Court.

Here’s a look at what to expect on election night:

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Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

Pennsylvania’s primaries are limited to registered party members.

The AP will declare winners in 14 races, including five statewide elections. The first votes are expected shortly after polls close, and election-night updates are expected to last until around 3 a.m. ET. In the 2022 general election, 97% percent of votes were counted by noon the next day, a significant change from 2020, when the tabulation lasted more than a week.

The AP does not make projections and will only declare a winner when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap.

Should a candidate declare victory or offer a concession before the AP calls a race, we will cover newsworthy developments in our reporting. In doing so, we will make clear that the AP has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

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Calling a winner in the Democratic primary for Philadelphia mayor will be complicated by the large field and the large number of votes that Philadelphia counts after election day — 11% in the 2022 midterms. Also, results will be tabulated citywide, which won’t show which areas of the city have reported and where the various candidates are doing well.

The state’s largest counties — Philadelphia and Allegheny — will play a big role in deciding the Democratic primaries for Supreme Court, Superior Court and Commonwealth Court. Suburban counties, including Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware, Chester and Westmoreland, will be important to watch in statewide Republican primaries for Supreme Court and Commonwealth Court.

The AP may call a race in which the margin between the top two candidates is 0.5% or less, if we determine the lead is too large for a recount and legal challenge to change the outcome. Pennsylvania has automatic recounts for statewide races in which the margin between the top two candidates is 0.5 percentage points or less. For local races, three voters in an election district can request — and pay for — a recount.

Q: WHAT DO TURNOUT AND ADVANCE VOTE LOOK LIKE?

A: As of April 10, there were 8.6 million registered voters in Pennsylvania, including 3.9 million Democrats and 3.4 million Republicans. As of Thursday, 323,398 Democrats and 94,504 Republicans had cast advance votes. In 2022, about 40% of Democratic voters and 12% of Republican voters cast their ballots before election day.

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AP’s preliminary statewide turnout projections are 1 million for the Democratic primary and 1 million for the Republican primary. In Philadelphia, AP’s preliminary turnout projection is 220,000 for Democrats and 20,000 for Republicans.

Q: HOW LONG DOES COUNTING USUALLY TAKE?

In the 2022 general election, 97% of votes were counted by noon on the day after the election. However, votes in a handful of counties, including Philadelphia, trickled in for more than two weeks.

Here’s more on this year’s Pennsylvania elections:

Pennsylvania House battle hinges on Philadelphia suburbs

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Philadelphia mayoral race hones in on crime policies

Follow AP’s coverage of politics and elections at: https://apnews.com/hub/politics



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Pennsylvania

Trump’s Big Reward To Agent Who Saved His Life In Pennsylvania; Sean Curran To Lead Secret Service

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Trump’s Big Reward To Agent Who Saved His Life In Pennsylvania; Sean Curran To Lead Secret Service


US President-elect named Sean Curran as the next director of the Secret Service. Curran has been with Trump for the last four years, leading his personal security detail. Curran also helped cover Trump when a gunman opened fire at him during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on July 13, 2024. Watch this video to know more.

 





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First Call Snowfall Forecast for Sunday’s Significant Snowstorm in Pennsylvania

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First Call Snowfall Forecast for Sunday’s Significant Snowstorm in Pennsylvania


The current brief reprieve from winter’s chill will not last, as a widespread snowstorm followed by extreme cold are likely. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for parts of Central and Eastern PA ahead of Sunday’s snowstorm. In addition, an Extreme Cold Watch has been issued in other areas ahead of wind chills as low as 30 below zero next week.

 

We will have more details on Sunday regarding this life-threatening cold that will close schools for parts of next week. That may sound drastic, but temperatures near or below zero combined with gusty winds will cause frostbite in 15-25 minutes of skin exposure. And having a snowpack will only make temperatures drop further.

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Winter Storm Timing

Light to moderate snow will move into Southern Pennsylvania before lunchtime Sunday as the low pressure system begins to form in Southern Virginia. Precipitation will then increase in intensity as the system strengthens while moving northeast.

Moderate to locally heavy snow will break out between I-81 and I-95, encompassing nearly all densely-populated areas in the eastern half of PA. Light snow will be thrown northwest, in places like the Laurel Highlands to the Endless Mountains.

Snow ratios (usually 10″ of snow for every 1″ of liquid) will be around 15:1 in areas NW of I-95, and approach 20:1 across the interior mountains.

This will not be a long storm, which limits the maximum amount of snow. We expect snow to exit the areas from southwest to northeast Sunday evening, and even earlier in Western PA. This is simply not a Western PA event, as it’s a coastal storm.


Area A: Snowfall accumulation of 5 – 9″ expected. Roads will quickly become snow-covered, making travel very difficult and inadvisable.

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Area B: Snowfall accumulation of 3 – 5″ anticipated. Snow will rapidly cover roadways, leading to slippery driving conditions.

Area C: Snowfall accumulation of 1 – 3″ expected. Secondary roads are likely to become slick as snow covers them.

Don’t forget to share this forecast with friends and family!



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Fire breaks out overnight in Quakertown

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Fire breaks out overnight in Quakertown


We’re following a developing story out of Quakertown.

Crews have been on the scene of a fire in Bucks County.

The fire was reported around midnight at the 100 block of Pacific Drive in Quakertown.

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The fire is reported to have broken out inside a commercial building.

Dispatchers say firefighters from multiple companies were working on putting out hotspots once the bulk of the fire was out.

We are working to learn more details on what caused the fire and if there are any injuries. 

This is a developing story and will be updated. 

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