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Inside the Last Weeks of RFK Jr.'s Campaign

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Inside the Last Weeks of RFK Jr.'s Campaign

Robert Kennedy Jr.’s presidential campaign ended as it began: with a lengthy speech that railed against the dark forces controlling politics, government and the media.

Speaking in Phoenix on Friday, Kennedy said he was suspending his independent bid for the White House and endorsed former President Donald Trump, citing their shared concerns about “the war on our children,” the war in Ukraine, and free speech. “I have the certainty that this is what I’m meant to do,” he said, calling the decision a “spiritual journey” to embrace a candidate who, until a few weeks ago, he derided as a “sociopath” and a “terrible human being.

In other circumstances, it would have been a striking scene: the scion of the most iconic family in Democratic politics, endorsing Trump to keep the Democrats out of the White House and denouncing them as “the party of war, censorship [and] corruption.” Except that this particular Kennedy is a longtime conspiracy theorist who used his famous name to prop up one of the most bizarre presidential bids in modern history.

The announcement marked the end of a chaotic campaign which over 16 months switched from Democrat to independent, cycled through campaign managers and staffers, and shifted its positions on issues from abortion to climate change. Run by Kennedy’s daughter-in-law, the operation had no headquarters, few official events, and dedicated much of its time to appearing on podcasts and fringe YouTube shows. Kennedy showed up where he was invited: a sheriffs conference in Oklahoma, the set of Dr. Phil in Houston, a Bitcoin conference event in Miami, and a discussion about pig farming in Maine.

Kennedy says all of this was by design. “I’m less interested in campaigning and I have, I would say, almost zero interest in attention,” he told me in an interview in Albuquerque, N.M., in June, where he was about to premiere his latest documentary in front of an audience of more than 200 supporters wearing “Kennedy for President” buttons. “I really am preoccupied with governing.”

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When Kennedy managed to make national headlines, it was rarely for anything related to governing. Instead, an increasingly outlandish series of revelations about his past trickled to the surface: the dead worm in his brain, the dead bear cub in his trunk, the dog (or was it a goat?) he once ate off a stick in the Andes.

Kennedy’s unlikely coalition of vaccine skeptics, New Age influencers, environmental activists, Silicon Valley pundits, and right-wing fans was held together by nostalgic vibes and cash infusions from his running mate, philanthropist Nicole Shanahan. Kennedy and Shanahan rarely saw one another. She spent her time visiting raw milk farms, talking about soil as a political issue, and musing about whether the government may be “satanically possessed.” (Kennedy did not even mention her in his speech suspending his campaign.)

Kennedy commutes to the premiere of the documentary “Recovering America” in Albuquerque on June 15.David Williams for TIME

Despite all this, Kennedy polled in double digits for more than a year. The candidate cast himself as a third choice during an election cycle that should have presented the biggest opportunity for an independent candidate in decades. In polls, roughly 2 in 3 Americans said they dreaded a rematch between the 78-year-old Trump and 81-year-old Joe Biden. In a campaign season ripe for a third-party spoiler, Kennedy’s bid had the potential to capture enough support to swing a tight race. Three major forces in U.S. politics—the Democratic National Committee, the Trump campaign, and Kennedy’s own prominent family—all feared that he could draw enough voters to affect the outcome in November.

Read More: Inside the Very Online Campaign of RFK Jr. 

But Kennedy’s haphazard operation was unable to capitalize on broad public dissatisfaction with Trump and Biden. Like the candidate himself, it operated without a clear goal or coherent ideology, according to interviews with half a dozen current and former campaign staffers and advisers. One month, it would veer left, casting the candidate as “the original liberal” and “old school Kennedy Democrat.” The next, it would pull sharply to the right, flying Kennedy to Arizona to “formulate policies that will seal the border permanently” and promoting COVID-19 conspiracy theories.

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The 70-year-old candidate was more or less cosplaying the process of running for President, according to current and former staffers. “He hates making binary, black-and-white choices, and he hates deadlines,” says one former adviser. Staffers described a chaotic campaign rife with screaming matches on Zoom calls. Longtime associates from Kennedy’s days in environmental and anti-vaccine activism collected six-figure salaries without showing up to a single meeting, they said, describing a constant clash between right and left-wing factions as the campaign struggled to define their candidate’s platform.

Supporters attend a screening for
Supporters attend a screening for “Recovering America”, a documentary that features Kennedy, at the Kiva Auditorium in Albuquerque on June 15.David Williams for TIME

Staffers who believed in Kennedy’s stated mission of “healing the divide” tried to propose a more strategic approach. “I can’t be the only one saying let’s go to Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada,” recalls one former staffer. “Why are we going swimming with sharks in Hawaii from an electoral standpoint? Why are we posting videos of him sailing and skiing?” Surrogates found themselves having to guess Kennedy’s stance on issues. “I’m going on TV in front of millions of people,” says a former staffer, “and if they ask me about this guy’s policies, I have no f—ing clue where he stands day to day.”

Kennedy’s campaign said they were not asking supporters to agree with all his policy positions. His own vice president didn’t. Shanahan, the 39-year-old ex-wife of Google co-founder Sergey Brin, only met Kennedy twice before deciding to become his running mate and often seemed surprised by the ticket’s positions. In May, she was visibly taken aback when a podcast host told her that Kennedy supported a woman’s right to an abortion up until birth.

She also often appeared blind-sided by revelations about his past. Responding to allegations that he had been accused of sexually assaulting a babysitter, she told TIME on July 5: “Maybe he didn’t know that this was the babysitter and thought it was his wife, and came over and affectionately, like, touched her and was like, ‘Whoa, that was a mistake!’” When a photo was published that allegedly showed Kennedy eating a dog in Patagonia, Shanahan asked her fiancé to call him for answers. “I was incredibly alarmed,” she told TIME, “I was like, this is not okay. You can’t eat dogs!” (Kennedy told her it was not a dog, but a goat.)

Advisers complained about the hefty salaries paid to Kennedy allies, many with scant political experience, who struck colleagues as doing little actual campaign work. “It felt like I was the only one on the campaign who didn’t have another organization or nonprofit or Substack or podcast they were promoting,” says another former staffer. One of Kennedy’s senior advisers, Charles Eisenstein, was paid up to $21,000 per month, according to federal election filings, despite taking extended sabbaticals in Costa Rica, calling some of Kennedy’s views “repugnant” on a podcast, and telling his 80,000 Substack subscribers that “winning the campaign is not the end goal.” (Eisenstein did not return TIME’s request for comment.)

Kennedy for President buttoms at an event in Albuquerque on June 15.
Kennedy for President buttoms at an event in Albuquerque on June 15.David Williams for TIME
Lawn signs for the Kennedy Shanahan campaign at an event in Albuquerque on June 15.
Lawn signs for the Kennedy Shanahan campaign at an event in Albuquerque on June 15.David Williams for TIME

Much of the campaign’s time and money was spent on a fight to appear on state ballots across the country. But a significant amount was spent on efforts to position Kennedy as a scion of his famous father and uncle. A super PAC spent $7 million to air a 30-second ad during the Super Bowl in February, which channeled President John F. Kennedy’s famous 1960 spot. It also paid for a half-hour documentary, titled “Who is Bobby?”, produced by former Hillary Clinton aide Jay Carson and narrated by Woody Harrelson. These campaign videos, which were promoted on X and YouTube, cast Kennedy as the heir of his father’s political legacy.

Read More: The Podcast Campaigners.

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Even a flailing Kennedy campaign spooked national Democrats and Republicans, who feared polls could not account for what might happen when Americans fed up with their choices saw a Kennedy on the ballot—no matter what he stood for.

The DNC ran an aggressive, organized, and unusually public effort to draw attention to Kennedy’s history of conspiracies and paint him as a Republican-backed stalking horse for Trump. It focused on Kennedy’s ballot-access efforts, retaining lawyers to file legal challenges against the campaign and his super PAC for any violation of federal coordination laws. They were especially worried about swing states, where even a small number of votes could potentially sway the election. “What he seems to be mad at is that the DNC is engaged in politics,” says Lis Smith, who runs the DNC “war room” targeting third-party candidates, “and that his campaign is completely unprepared to wage an effective political campaign.

Kennedy’s famously private family also came out in force. His sister Kerry has called his candidacy “dangerous to our country,” and other siblings have called the situation “heart-wrenching” and characterized his policies as “fringe thinking, crackpot ideas and unsound judgment.” Some younger family members were less subtle, with one calling him an “embarrassment” and depicting him as a Russian stooge. “Our brother Bobby’s decision to endorse Trump today is a betrayal of the values that our father and our family hold most dear,” five of Kennedy’s siblings said in a statement. “It is a sad ending to a sad story.”

RFK Jr. For Time Magazine
Kennedy poses with supporters while surrounded by security at an event in Albuquerque, NM on June 15, 2024.David Williams for TIME

The turn toward Trump may have been driven in part by his running mate. In an interview with TIME on July 5, Shanahan, a former major donor to Democratic candidates including Biden, laid out her disgust at the Democrats. Their victory would be “more problematic for democracy than four years of a Trump presidency,” she said. “When you actually get to know those people around Trump, you realize that they’re not as evil as they’re made out to be.”

Shanahan also expounded on a series of right-wing conspiracies, referring to the false notion that Vice President Kamala Harris allowing hundreds of children to be “abducted at the border” and suggesting 9/11 conspiracies merited closer examination. (Shanahan said she had only recently Googled QAnon after being told some of these theories overlapped). “People throw around words like paranoid, fringe, conspiracy, or anti-science,” she says. “I would redefine what fringe and conspiracy theory is. There are millions of Americans questioning if the government is satanic…wondering if there’s some awful evil that has overtaken this country.”

The Trump team’s approach to Kennedy shifted as the campaign progressed. When Kennedy first announced he would run as a Democrat, in April 2023, Trump allies amplified the campaign, believing it would hurt Biden. Kennedy was a frequent guest on right-wing shows, and Fox News aired dozens of segments about his campaign, including a full-length documentary. Kennedy “was making some inroads” with voters, former Trump adviser Steve Bannon told TIME in June, calling Kennedy an “instrument” to help Trump.

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Read More: QAnon Candidates Are Running For Local Elections.

Yet over time, polls indicated that Kennedy was increasingly drawing voters away from Trump, and that Republicans largely viewed Kennedy more favorably than Democrats. Trump began to bash Kennedy as a “Democrat Plant” and “radical left liberal” and insulted his family as a “bunch of lunatics.” He warned Republicans that a vote for Kennedy was a “wasted protest vote.”  

As his poll numbers sagged— in a recent CBS News poll, Kennedy drew 2%—and his campaign ran out of cash, Kennedy blamed his lack of momentum on a multi-front war against his campaign. But he particularly blamed Democrats, saying his campaign was under siege by shadowy DNC operatives. “Some of the stuff they’ve done is just crazy,” he told TIME on June 15, somberly thumbing the beads of a white rosary in a dingy side room of the Albuquerque convention center. Kennedy said his campaign had been infiltrated and sabotaged by undercover Democratic operatives trying to “gut it from within.” At every level, he said, “we’re seeing a lot of dirty tricks being used against the campaign.”

RFK Jr. For Time Magazine
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in Albuquerque, NM on June 15, 2024.David Williams for TIME

At that time, Kennedy was withering in his appraisal of Trump. “I don’t think President Trump has a high interest in actually governing,” Kennedy told TIME. “I think he had a very high interest in campaigning.” He sharply criticized the former President’s “really weak” handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. “He let Anthony Fauci do whatever he wanted,” Kennedy said. “He gave us lockdowns, closed 3.3 million businesses, he bankrupted the country, ran up an 8 trillion dollar debt.”

Shanahan was equally disparaging. “I don’t like his style,” she said of Trump in her separate interview with TIME. “It’s very brutish.” A Democrat or Republican win would be “different flavors of awful” for the country, she said.

Yet behind the scenes, Kennedy and his inner circle had long pondered a Trump endorsement. In January, a proposal had made the rounds laying out the case for joining forces with the Trump campaign while Kennedy had leverage.

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“A convergence of these two campaigns would change the landscape of American politics, ushering in a new era,” Link Lauren, a 25-year-old senior adviser, wrote in a memo, which TIME obtained, to Kennedy and his senior staff. “Trump is not running as a Republican. He’s running an America First agenda. He’s running outside the lines of the two-party system, just like you.”

The proposal, which campaign manager Amaryllis Fox had workshopped, was enthusiastically backed by much of the senior campaign team at the time, according to Lauren. “I thought it would be better to have a seat at the table to impact policy than go home empty-handed,” he said. But key advisers, some of whom were being paid huge monthly sums to work remotely, cooled on the idea when they realized that if Kennedy suspended his campaign they would stop receiving their salaries, according to a former staffer.

By mid-summer, Kennedy appeared to be openly shopping around for the best offer, to the panic and disgust of some of his most fervent supporters. Trump changed his tune on Kennedy, describing him as “a little different, but very smart” and saying he would be “honored” to receive his endorsement.

Trump and Kennedy met in Milwaukee during the Republican National Convention, and a leaked video of a phone call between the two candidates showed Trump appearing to appeal for an endorsement. “I would love you to do something,” Trump said in the video of the call, which was leaked by Kennedy’s son. “And I think it’ll be so good for you and so big for you. And we’re going to win.” In the weeks that followed, Donald Trump Jr. and investor Omeed Malik were among those working to persuade Kennedy to jump on board, according to a source familiar with the discussions.

In the wake of a successful convention, Democrats dismissed the move. “Donald Trump isn’t earning an endorsement that’s going to help build support, he’s inheriting the baggage of a failed fringe candidate,” DNC senior advisor Mary Beth Cahill said in a statement on Friday. “Good riddance.”

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With reporting by Eric Cortellessa

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Mass shooting at Austin, Texas bar leaves at least 3 dead, 14 wounded, authorities say

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Mass shooting at Austin, Texas bar leaves at least 3 dead, 14 wounded, authorities say

Gunfire rang out at a bar in Austin, Texas, early Sunday and at least three people were killed, the city’s police chief said.

Austin Police Chief Lisa Davis told reporters the shooter was killed by officers at the scene. 

Fourteen others were hospitalized and three were in critical condition, Austin-Travis County EMS Chief Robert Luckritz said.

“We received a call at 1:39 a.m. and within 57 seconds, the first paramedics and officers were on scene actively treating the patients,” Luckritz said.

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There was no initial word on the shooter’s identity or motive.

An Austin police officer guards the scene on West 6th Street at West Avenue after a shooting on Sunday, March 1, 2026, in Austin, Texas.

Jay Janner/Austin American-Statesman via AP


Davis noted how fortunate it was that there was a heavy police presence in Austin’s entertainment district at the time, enabling officers to respond quickly as bars were closing.

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“Officers immediately transitioned … and were faced with the individual with a gun,” Davis said. “Three of our officers returned fire, killing the suspect.”

She called the shooting a “tragic, tragic” incident.

Texas Bar Shooting

Austin Police Chief Lisa Davis provides a briefing after a shooting on Sunday, March 1, 2026, near West Sixth Street and Nueces in downtown Austin, Texas.

Ricardo B. Brazziell/Austin American-Statesman via AP


Austin Mayor Kirk Watson said his heart goes out to the victims, and he praised the swift response of first responders.

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“They definitely saved lives,” he said.

Davis said federal law enforcement is aiding the investigation.

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A long-buried recording and the Supreme Court of old (CT+) : Consider This from NPR

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A long-buried recording and the Supreme Court of old (CT+) : Consider This from NPR
Recently, movie critic Bob Mondello brought us a story about how he found a 63-year-old recording of his father arguing a case before the Supreme Court. The next day, he bumped into Nina Totenberg, NPR’s legal affairs correspondent, in the newsroom. They were talking so animatedly that we ushered them into a studio to continue the conversation.To unlock this and other bonus content — and listen to every episode sponsor-free — sign up for NPR+ at plus.npr.org. Regular episodes haven’t changed and remain available every weekday.Email us at considerthis@npr.org.
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2 Survivors Describe the Terror and Tragedy of the Tahoe Avalanche

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2 Survivors Describe the Terror and Tragedy of the Tahoe Avalanche

The blizzard blew so fierce that the skier at the head of the line kept disappearing into a whiteout. The winds were gusting over 50 miles per hour. Almost four feet of fresh powder had piled up and more was falling every minute.

At the back of the line was Anton Auzans, trudging behind 12 other backcountry skiers climbing through a clearing high in California’s Sierra Nevada. He had his hood pulled low against the pelting wind.

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Then came a single word yelled by a ski guide somewhere ahead: “Avalanche!”

Mr. Auzans looked up in time to see a wall of white dotted with strange blurs of color. In the moment before it reached him, he realized that the colors were the tumbling skis and clothing of the other skiers.

He dove behind a dead tree for protection, but the snow was surging down the mountain like a raging river. It poured around the trunk, dragged him away and swallowed him in darkness.

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Hundreds of thousands of pounds of snow rushed into the clearing, slowing as it spilled over flatter ground, and settled into a dense pile and a terrible silence. The slide had buried everyone in the group. Almost.

Two men from the group had fallen behind.

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Back in the woods, Jim Hamilton was struggling with a sticky ski binding that had refused to lock onto his boot and caused him to fall behind. He was cursing his bad luck.

He was hustling to catch the group, following their ski track through the woods. With him was a ski guide. Mr. Hamilton expected to catch sight of the others at the next clearing. Instead, their track abruptly ended at a rough berm of snow debris, as if a giant plow had driven through.

Mr. Hamilton had been too far behind to hear the warning or the rush of snow. For a second he was mystified. Where was everybody?

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Then he heard Mr. Auzans yell. “Major avalanche! Major avalanche! We have people buried!” Mr. Auzans’s head had just poked out of the snow.

Anton Auzans and Jim Hamilton are two survivors of the deadliest avalanche in modern California history. This account is based on a number of interviews with the two men conducted over several hours, in which they offered the first eyewitness telling of what happened.

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Jim Hamilton Max Whittaker for The New York Times

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Anton Auzans Lauren Segal for The New York Times

The Feb. 17 avalanche killed nine skiers who were among 15 people on a guided trip high in the mountains near Lake Tahoe, including six women who were all close friends.

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The two men, both lifelong skiers who had never met before the trip, said that as the storm beat down, conditions steadily grew worse, but their guides largely stuck to an itinerary laid out long before the storm, and led the group beneath steep terrain where a massive slide buried nearly everyone. The few skiers who were free dug desperately to save the others, but were overwhelmed by the number of people trapped, and by the unrelenting blizzard that threatened to cause another deadly slide.

In the days since, many in the public, including some veteran backcountry skiers, have raised questions about why four experienced guides left a protected backcountry hut during a historic storm and led their group across avalanche terrain, while not spreading skiers out so that one avalanche would not take out the whole group.

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Those questions remain largely unanswered. The Nevada County Sheriff’s Office and California’s workplace safety agency, Cal-OSHA, are investigating whether there were safety violations or criminal negligence by the company that led the trip, Blackbird Mountain Guides. No findings have been announced.

There were four other survivors: One ski guide, two women in the group and a third man who had signed up for the trip. The surviving women declined to comment through a spokeswoman, as did the other ski client. The guide, a man, could not be reached for comment.

In a statement after the accident, Blackbird Mountain Guides, asked people not to speculate, adding, “It’s too soon to draw conclusions, but investigations are underway.”

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A Welcome Forecast of Heavy Snow

The trip started on a blue-sky day.

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Mr. Auzans and Mr. Hamilton arrived at Donner Pass, where Interstate 80 cuts through a gap in the mountains, on the morning of Sunday, Feb. 15. The weather was mild and snowy peaks were shining under a clear sky.

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Sunday: Groups skied to huts

The plan was to ski three miles over a high mountain ridge east of the highest summit in the area, Castle Peak, to a hidden subalpine basin called Frog Lake. There, at 7,600 feet, sat a cozy collection of backcountry huts that would provide the skiers with hot meals, warm beds and a launching point for human-powered climbs up remote mountains to ski untracked slopes.

A monster winter storm was set to move in that night and drop up to eight feet of snow over four days. The local avalanche forecasting office warned of possible “widespread avalanche activity” and slides large enough to bury people in the days ahead. But the skiers viewed the weather not as a concern, but as a stroke of good luck.

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For six weeks the region had gone without a significant storm, leaving the snow thin and crusty and not much fun to ski. The storm promised to bring what the skiers had hoped for, what they had each paid almost $1,500 for: bottomless fresh powder.

At the pass, the two clients were greeted by their guides from Blackbird Mountain Guides, — Andrew Alissandratos, 34, and the guide who survived — and by the third man.

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A second group had also hired Blackbird to head to the huts that day: Eight friends, all women in their 40s or early 50s, who had been taking backcountry trips together for years. Many of them also liked to surf. Most had high-powered jobs and impressive résumés. Both groups were led by Blackbird, and had signed up for the same hut trip, but each group had their own pair of guides.

The four guides from Blackbird all had extensive experience and formal training. They checked that everyone had the required safety gear — an avalanche beacon for locating people who are buried; a long, folding probe to pinpoint them under the snow; and a shovel for digging them out. Mr. Auzans and Mr. Hamilton had both taken basic avalanche safety classes, but neither had experienced an avalanche before.

When the topic of the impending storm came up, Mr. Hamilton said the guides told him not to worry, they knew how to pick safe terrain. They would have to stay on treed slopes and avoid the steep inclines that many skiers love, but he said one guide told him there would be so much powder that no one would care.

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The groups put climbing skins on the bottom of their skis to grip the snow and climbed up to a ridge on the side of Castle Peak, about 1,700 feet above the freeway.

Mr. Hamilton snapped pictures of views that spilled out seemingly forever. He was 65, a software engineer and grandfather, and had moved to California from Massachusetts a year before. He had only been backcountry skiing four times and would never have attempted a trip like this without expert guides. But he wanted to experience the renowned deep Lake Tahoe backcountry powder, so he had looked online and found the Frog Lake trip on Blackbird’s website. There was one slot left.

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“Wow,” he had said to himself, “it’s meant to be.”

On the ridge, the skiers took off their climbing skins for a long ski down an open bowl to a steep snow gully called Frog Lake Notch that cut beneath a granite summit called Perry’s Peak.

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On a big powder day, Frog Lake Notch would be a natural avalanche path, but that Sunday, the old snow was firm and safe. By early afternoon, they had reached the huts at Frog Lake.

It was just the kind of experience Mr. Auzans was hoping for.

A 37-year-old electrician in the Bay Area with a young son, he had grown up snowboarding at nearby resorts and in recent years had grown increasingly interested in the backcountry.

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He loved the serenity and beauty of the mountains. In summer he backpacked and camped. In winter, backcountry skiing offered the same solitude and grandeur, with the added bonus of primo powder.

At the same time, he knew there was added danger. On the handful of backcountry day trips he had taken, he always went with guides because he did not completely trust himself.

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A Rising Danger

Frog Lake’s main hut had a fully stocked kitchen and big leather chairs set in front of a crackling fire. After a dinner of ravioli, the men settled in by the hearth.

Mr. Auzans cracked open the book he had brought on the history of the Donner Party. He was, by his own admission, obsessed with stories of disaster and survival, and wanted to learn about the group of pioneers, who in 1846, tried to cross the Sierra Nevada and got trapped by heavy snowfall. Nearly half of them died and some, stranded for months by deep snow, resorted to cannibalism. Donner Pass still bears their name.

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The book sparked a discussion around the fire about the disaster, then other historic disasters.

As they talked, one of the men observed that most disasters aren’t caused by just one thing, but by a series of small events that led to a catastrophe.

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On Sunday night it started to snow hard. By the next morning, the huts were covered by nearly a foot of fresh powder and it was still dumping.

The three male clients and the group of women gathered in the main hut for breakfast. While they ate, the four guides met in a separate room to make a plan for the day.

Early Monday, the Sierra Avalanche Center, which forecasts backcountry snow conditions in the region, posted an update: “Avalanche danger is rising. Backcountry travelers could easily trigger large avalanches today.” The center added: “Consider avoiding avalanche terrain in areas where clues to unstable snow are present.”

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The forecast now said that the hazard, on a scale of 1 to 5, had increased to Level 3, with “considerable” danger, up from Level 2, with “moderate” danger, on Sunday. But the center continued to warn that, by Monday night, the hazard could increase to Level 4, with “high” danger.

Whether the guides checked those forecasts or conferred with Blackbird headquarters is unclear, the two men said in interviews, because the guide meeting happened behind closed doors. Mr. Hamilton said that the huts did have an internet connection. Blackbird Mountain Guides said in a statement, “Guides in the field are in communication with senior guides at our base, to discuss conditions and routing based upon conditions.”

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Most avalanches occur on slopes between 30 and 45 degrees. The guides told the group that they would climb about 800 feet through the trees on the east side of another nearby summit, called Frog Lake Peak, and ski a 25-degree slope that would be safe.

The guides did not ask for feedback or if anyone had misgivings, Mr. Hamilton and Mr. Auzans said, and no one spoke up.

Avalanche prediction has improved dramatically since the 1980s, but knowing when snow is likely to slide has not led to a drop in fatalities. Many backcountry users continue to go into dangerous terrain, even when advised of the risk.

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That has caused avalanche safety experts in recent decades to recognize that accidents have as much to do with failures in human decisions as they do with failures in snow layers. In response they have shifted education toward helping people spot human factors that push them to take dangerous risks.

Backcountry users are taught to recognize a group of human decision-making traps that can make getting caught in an avalanche more likely, said Sara Boilen, a psychologist in Montana, an avid backcountry skier and a snow safety researcher who regularly gives an avalanche safety talk.

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People skiing familiar terrain — such as experienced guides on home turf — are more likely to assume a familiar route is safe. Skiers who see an opportunity as scarce or fleeting — such as a long-awaited trip or fresh powder — are more likely to downplay the danger. Individuals wanting to fit in with the group may be reluctant to speak out. Novices are prone to defer to someone they see as an expert, and not question their decisions.

In groups of six to 10, statistics show, the risk grows substantially, as numbers give the illusion of safety and unspoken competition pushes the tolerance for risk.

Over time, Dr. Boilen said, taking risks can become normalized.

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“It’s very hard to avoid. I’ve seen it in my friends, I’ve seen it in myself,” she said. “You can creep past a red line you would never intentionally step across.”

The ski from the Frog Lake huts on Monday turned out to be fantastic. The guides chose enjoyable runs. The snow was deep and soft. There were no signs of avalanches. Both groups returned to the huts wet, tired and happy, Mr. Hamilton said.

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“It was everything you thought it would be. Just epic. And I never once felt like we were in danger,” he said. “I remember watching the women fly by me and they are having a blast.”

Fleeing Into a Storm

By Monday night the snow was hitting harder than ever.

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At midnight, the wind started blowing steadily from the southwest, gusting over 40 m.p.h. It howled through the trees and shook the huts.

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Monday: Strong winds caused snow to drift

The wind drove snow across the bare peaks above Frog Lake, depositing tons of loose powder on northern slopes in deep, unstable piles. On Perry’s Peak, just above the huts, a pile started to accumulate on a bare slope with an angle of about 35 degrees. It was prime avalanche terrain. It was also right above the path the skiers would take to try to get back to their cars on Donner Pass.

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When the skiers woke on Tuesday, the chance of avalanches had increased from possible to likely, according to the Sierra Avalanche Center forecast.

The guides once again held a morning planning meeting in a separate room while their clients had breakfast. When they came out, they told the skiers the groups had to cancel a planned ski lap and leave before conditions got worse.

“‘We have to get out of here now,’” Mr. Auzans recalled them firmly telling the groups.

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Returning the way they came in, through Frog Lake Notch, was a no go. The steep slopes were now too dangerous. That left several alternatives, some seemingly riskier than others.

The website for the Frog Lake Huts offered an alternative path down a tree-covered slope to the southeast. There was also a one-lane road to the huts, closed in winter, that went east through safe terrain. Both routes were longer, and would have left the skiers far from their cars.

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Tuesday: Skiers returned to trail

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A third possibility was to stay in the huts, which had food and water and plenty of room. But the guides never mentioned the option, the men said. Instead, a fourth alternative was chosen by the guides. The groups would head for the cars, retracing much of their path in, but would avoid Frog Lake Notch by going around the back of Perry’s Peak.

Why the guides chose that course of action was not clear to the two men. There was no discussion with clients, Mr. Hamilton and Mr. Auzans said, and no clients openly raised concerns.

“I didn’t say anything,” Mr. Auzans recalled. “I’m not an expert and so I decided to trust the plan.”

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An Attempt to Get Out

Winds were gusting at over 50 m.p.h. when they left. At times the skiers could not see more than a few feet.

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The women’s and men’s groups combined into one party with four guides, and started zigzagging up a gentle slope to the ridge of Perry’s Peak, 500 feet above the huts.

The snow was hip deep without skis on. The guides took turns in the lead, packing a trail for the others to follow, but it was slow going. An hour later, they had covered less than a mile.

As they trudged uphill, skiers naturally bunched up behind the leader. At points on the climb the guides stopped the group and sent skiers one at a time across steeper slopes.

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At around 10 a.m. they reached the ridge, stopped in the howling wind to pull off their climbing skins, and skied down the north side.

Mr. Hamilton watched the women, all veteran powder skiers, slip along effortlessly. He was not as graceful. He fell and struggled to get up. By the time they regrouped at the bottom, it was about 10:45 a.m.

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The group now faced a mile-long climb up a gentle valley beneath Perry’s Peak. Beyond it was a long downhill glide to the cars. No part of the path crossed steep slopes. The group appeared to be home free.

The women put on their climbing skins ahead of the men and left with the lead guide to break trail. Mr. Auzans and the third client soon followed.

Mr. Hamilton tried to hurry, but could not get his boot into his binding. The guide at the rear of the group waited with him. Finally, they heard it click into place and moved up the trail.

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Tuesday: Minutes before avalanche

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A Scream, and Then Silence

At about that moment, the wind-piled mass of snow on the north side of Perry’s Peak failed. Untold tons rushed down like a tsunami, picking up speed as it tumbled the equivalent of 40 stories.

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What triggered the avalanche may never be determined. The careful investigation that might provide answers, experts say, would be difficult because the storm and efforts by rescuers to stop further avalanches likely covered signs in the snow that could have provided clues. But the impact was immediately clear.

Directly in the path of the avalanche, the other 13 skiers were climbing a gentle slope through a clearing. Nearly all of them were bunched up behind the lead guides who were breaking trail. Mr. Auzans was last in line.

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The skiers were not spread out to cross avalanche terrain. The clearing did not pose an obvious danger. The slope was only about 20 degrees — not steep enough for snow to slide. It remains unknown if, in the blowing snow, the guides realized that a steep slope towered just above them to the left.

“Avalanche!” was all Mr. Auzans heard.

By the time he looked up, the rest of the group had already been swallowed. The snow pushed him over and dragged him down. As he was being buried, the survival stories he loved to read flashed in his mind and he put his hands over his face to try to make an air pocket.

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Everything went black. He was packed too tightly to move. He knew from his training that he had to get out soon or he would likely die.

If people buried in an avalanche are rescued within 20 minutes, accident data shows, 90 percent live. But in the next 15 minutes, carbon dioxide from their own breathing builds up in the snow, the heat of their breath can form an ice shield that blocks all air, and the survival rate drops to 30 percent. It then drops steadily as time goes on.

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Trapped in the snow, Mr. Auzan thought about his 3-year-old son and never seeing him again. He said a rage built up inside him and gave him the strength to push his hands free. Suddenly, he was looking at daylight.

He struggled to make the hole bigger, broke through and sat up. He was expecting to see a commotion of rescue activity. There was only silence.

“This is bad,” he thought.

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Moments later, Mr. Hamilton and the guide that was at the rear came through the trees.

“We have people buried!” Mr. Auzans shouted. He pointed to the last spot he had seen anyone.

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The guide pulled his avalanche beacon from his jacket, unfolded his probe and hurried toward the signal.

Mr. Auzans was stuck — his boots were still attached to his skis, which were buried in the snow. He dug to work himself free.

Mr. Hamilton spotted a ski pole sticking up from the debris. It started to wave. He skied over and saw an arm of the third male client. He had made an airway with one arm, and was able to talk through the hole.

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Don’t worry about me, I’m OK, Mr. Hamilton remembers him saying. Go look for other people.

Minutes were ticking by. Mr. Auzans dug himself out, grabbed his shovel and went to help the guide whose probe had found a skier about four feet under the snow.

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The digging was hard. The slide had compacted the snow into something less like powder and more like cement. It took a number of minutes to get down to the skier.

They uncovered the face of a woman. As they brushed away the snow they kept asking if she was OK. She only moaned, but that meant she was breathing. The guide and Mr. Auzans immediately moved to try to find more skiers, leaving all but the area around the woman’s face still buried.

A few feet away the probe found a second skier. They dug steadily, hacking at the hard snow. As they dug, Mr. Hamilton went back to the other male client and began to dig him out, hoping he could help with the rescue.

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About four feet down, the guide and Mr. Auzans found a second woman. Brushing the snow from her face, they saw her eyes blink. She moaned. Breathing. They told her they needed to go look for more survivors.

Somewhere in the blur of digging, Mr. Auzans called 911. It was 11:30 a.m. He reported a slide with multiple people buried. Rescuers immediately went into action.

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At least 30 minutes had passed since the slide, Mr. Auzans estimated. Time was running out.

While shoveling to the second woman, they had encountered someone’s leg and another person’s backpack. The group seemed to all be buried close together.

Within minutes they had uncovered the head of a third skier. It was one of the male guides. But when they tried to revive him, they got no response.

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Without stopping, they dug down to a fourth skier. A woman. She, too, appeared lifeless.

‘We Had to Save the People We Knew Were Alive’

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Now the men above the snow faced a bleak decision.

It was about noon. About an hour had passed since the slide. There were seven people still unaccounted for, but the chances of finding them alive seemed slim.

The storm was still hitting with savage force. Another avalanche could hit at any moment. The two women who were alive were still mostly buried. They seemed to drift in and out of consciousness as snow blew in on their faces.

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The men knew if they did not rescue the women and move to safety that they all might die. They made the decision to stop the search.

“We were all in danger. We did as much as we could. We pushed until we started finding people that were deceased. Making the decision to stop the search was one of the hardest things I’ve ever had to do,” Mr. Auzans said afterward. “What are our priorities? We had to save the people we knew were alive.”

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The group turned their efforts to freeing the women. When they pulled the first one up to the surface, she slumped over and mumbled that she just needed to sleep. Mr. Auzans got her standing, but found that she could barely walk.

The guide pulled the second woman out, and she started to cough up blood.

They knew they had to move out of the avalanche path. They led the women into the woods, leaving the clearing and the people buried there.

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The decision has weighed on both men in the days since.

“I honestly tried my best. I tried my best,” Mr. Auzans said in an interview from his home on Monday, less than a week after the avalanche. “I was buried. I helped to save three people.”

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He said he wished they could have saved them all, adding, “My heart goes out to all the families of the deceased.”

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Tuesday: Waiting for rescue

At about 12:30 p.m., Mr. Auzans texted 911 that they were moving to safety. The guide dug a snow pit, then laid a tarp over the top to make a crude shelter and put the women inside in sleeping bags. They began a long wait.

Rescuers knew where the group was, but with the storm, a helicopter was not an option. Snowmobiles and snowcats could not reach them. The group thought there was a good chance they would have to spend the night.

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They put their water in their jackets to keep it from freezing. They built a larger snow pit where everyone could stay warm.

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After the avalanche, the group made a shelter for the two women who survived. Jim Hamilton

For hours they waited in the storm. Some kept their emotions at bay by keeping busy, others broke down, overwhelmed by the enormous loss and the thought of the devastation ahead for the many loved ones of the dead.

At about 5:30 p.m., just as it was getting dark, about a dozen rescuers arrived on skis.

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With avalanche conditions still high and daylight fading, the rescuers decided the priority was to get the survivors out.

The only way was on skis. The women had regained enough strength to move on their own. The rescuers found skis for them in the pile of debris.

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In the dark, using headlamps, the rescuers led the five survivors back over to the ridge on Perry’s Peak, and down to the huts, where snowcats and an army of other rescuers were waiting.

Left behind on the dark mountain were the six friends who traveled together: Carrie Atkin, Liz Clabaugh, Danielle Keatley, Kate Morse, Caroline Sekar and Kate Vitt. And the three veteran guides: Andrew Alissandratos, Nicole Choo and Michael Henry.

It would be days before the storm relented and rescuers could return to retrieve them.

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A view from the shelter to the avalanche area, which was behind the trees. Jim Hamilton

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Methodology

The positions of the skiers and the extent of the avalanche path are approximate based on survivor accounts, an avalanche report from the Sierra Avalanche Center and avalanche experts. New York Times journalists built the 3-D model of the area using a 2021-2022 laser scan from the United States Geological Survey.

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