MINOT — The North Dakota Republican Party’s gubernatorial primary between Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller and U.S. Rep. Kelly Armstrong has been heated. Both candidates have spent furiously on promoting their campaigns, and at times

the rhetoric between the two has grown vicious.

But if polling just released to me by the Armstrong campaign is to be believed, the race isn’t particularly close. In a survey conducted by Guidant Polling & Strategy, which was conducted May 4-8, Armstrong has a commanding 41-point lead over Miller.

The survey shows Armstrong leading Miller among Republican primary voters 60% to 19%, with another 19% undecided. That lead remains consistent among voters aged 65+ (Armstrong 61%, Miller 19%), self-described conservative voters (Armstrong 62%, Miller 19%) and voters who say they have an established opinion of both candidates (Armstrong 64%, Miller 24%).

The poll suggests that voters view Armstrong far more favorably than they do Miller. Among likely Republican primary voters, Armstrong is viewed favorably by 69% of respondents, with just 19% having a negative view.

Miller, meanwhile, had mixed numbers. Just 32% of respondents said they view her favorably, 33% said they view her unfavorably, and after her campaign spent over $1.2 million on broadcast and cable television ads alone, 22% said they have no opinion of Miller.

“The last career politician who claimed to be up 40 points wound up losing in a landslide to Doug Burgum,” Miller spokesman Dawson Schefter told me in response to this poll. “Confident campaigns don’t release internal polls and spend hundreds of thousands of dollars falsely attacking their opponents. This is a clear attempt to spin the media from a candidate on the defensive about his record as a politician and trial lawyer. I’d put this poll in the trash where it belongs.”

To Schefter’s point, all polling released by a campaign should be taken with a grain of salt. Campaigns release polling data to serve their electoral agenda, not inform the public. We also don’t have any independent and publicly available polling to filter our perception of Armstrong’s numbers.

But that doesn’t mean these numbers are wrong. While I’m not sure I would have guessed that Armstrong’s lead was this prodigious, I have felt for some time that the congressman is winning. Armstrong’s poll strikes me as accurate. Or, at least, in the ballpark. The poll does jibe with information about other polls from independent sources that have been shared with me, though I wasn’t made privy to the specific details.

Gov. Doug Burgum, who is backing Miller’s campaign (though not quite as ardently as I had expected; more on that in a moment), might rebut these numbers by alluding, as Schefter did, to polling in the 2016 gubernatorial primary,

which showed him down 49 points

to Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem roughly a month after he announced his campaign. Burgum, of course, went on to win the primary in a landslide by nearly 21 points.

Burgum was fond of touting that poll during his long-shot presidential bid earlier this political cycle, but I’m not sure it’s an apt comparison for Miller. That poll was released in early March. It’s currently mid-May, with primary day looming on June 11. Also, remember that 2016 was the year of the outsider. It was the year Donald Trump stormed through the Republican primary to the White House. Burgum cast himself as a political outsider that cycle, and whatever the truth of the claim, the voters bought it. But that was eight years ago.

Miller’s campaign has seemed like a copy-and-paste of Burgum’s 2016 effort, right down to the buzzwords and much of the personnel. Only, it’s not 2016 anymore, and Miller, for all her personal achievements and compelling characteristics, isn’t Burgum.

The lazy analysis of Burgum’s political success assumes his money is the difference maker. And, don’t get me wrong, Burgum’s ability and willingness to spend gobs on his political agenda matters, but crediting his success to spending overlooks the fact that he’s always been a strong candidate. He’s warm and charismatic in person. He can work a room. He knows how to win people over on a personal level.

Burgum’s campaign strategies can be hit-and-miss. For example, he spent millions trying to sway legislative races as governor,

and the results were decidedly mixed.

But when Burgum himself is the candidate, when he’s personally engaged and not just spending money on ads and mailers, his success rate is much higher.

One thing we’ve learned about Miller during the campaign process is that she’s uncomfortable with in-person retail politics, and I think that’s cost her.

So, too, has Burgum’s absence on the campaign trail. We’ve all witnessed the spectacle of our current governor campaigning for a spot in a second Trump administration, be it as vice president or a cabinet position. That project has kept Burgum out of state a lot and left him with little time outside of gubernatorial duties to devote to Miller’s campaign.

In summary, how accurate is this poll? Though I wish we had publicly available independent polling corroborating the results, my gut tells me it’s fairly close to reality. Which isn’t to say that Miller can’t move the needle between now and June 11.

A North Dakota judge on Thursday ordered a state lawmaker to serve 250 hours of community service and pay a $2,500 fine after a jury convicted him of a misdemeanor in connection with a controversial state-leased building he has an ownership in.

State District Judge Bobbi Weiler also ordered Republican Rep. Jason Dockter, of Bismarck, to pay $325 in court fees, undergo fingerprinting and serve 360 days of unsupervised probation. She also granted him a deferred imposition, meaning the conviction will be taken off his record if he doesn’t violate probation.

A jury on May 3 convicted Dockter of speculating or wagering on official action. The misdemeanor charge is punishable up to 360 days in jail and/or a $3,000 fine. Complaints to the state Ethics Commission led to Dockter’s charging in December 2023. He pleaded not guilty.

JURY CONVICTS NORTH DAKOTA LAWMAKER OF MISDEMEANOR SPECULATION

Dockter, 50, is a co-owner of companies that own and worked on the building leased by the late Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem in 2020. The two were friends, but Dockter has denied any wrongdoing in the lease arrangement. The building drew scrutiny when Stenehjem’s successor, Attorney General Drew Wrigley, disclosed a construction cost overrun of over $1 million incurred under Stenehjem. The overrun was an unpleasant surprise to state lawmakers, who raised concerns about trust and transparency.

A criminal complaint alleged that, as a member of the North Dakota House of Representatives, Dockter voted “on legislative bills appropriating money to pay for property he had acquired a pecuniary interest in,” against state law and legislative rules.

Prosecutor Ladd Erickson had recommended a one-year deferred imposition with $325 in court fees and fingerprinting. He also said in a court document that the Ethics Commission “is the proper body to issue any additional penalties beyond” his recommended sentence. An investigation by the ethics panel was paused by Dockter’s charge, and it can resume after sentencing, Erickson wrote.

Defense attorney Lloyd Suhr agreed with Erickson’s recommendation, citing Dockter’s lack of criminal history and his family and local ties, and saying he deserves to be treated the same as similar first-time misdemeanor offenders.

Dockter declined to comment regarding the sentence. The judge chastised him for that.

“The reason I wanted to hear something from you is I look at this as the citizens of North Dakota being the victims and being taken advantage of, and I didn’t hear an apology from you to the citizens, and I’m a little disappointed in that,” Weiler said.

The judge said, “I don’t know how more direct and unique it gets,” regarding the lease situation, a reference to a House rule that members shall disclose personal or private interests on bills that affect him or her “directly, individually, uniquely, and substantially,” and may not vote without the House’s consent.

“My biggest concern is you don’t think it’s substantial,” Weiler said.

She granted the deferred imposition, but she added the community service hours and fine as stipulations, based on the $250,000 she said he “made off the citizens of North Dakota” by voting on a two-year budget bill last year.

“I was trying to find a way to hopefully help you understand so that we’re not seeing this again,” Weiler said.

Dockter must fulfill the community service with the homeless community within six months, or about 10 hours a week, the judge said.

“Maybe you can see how the other side lives, Mr. Dockter,” Weiler said.

“I’ll take whatever it is you’re giving me,” Dockter told the judge after she asked if he had any questions. He met with loved ones on the courthouse steps afterward.

Suhr said the judge “was well within her discretion and largely accepted the recommendations of the parties” on sentencing.

Republican House Majority Leader Mike Lefor has said he disagrees with the jury’s verdict and plans to review the statute and rules involved.

On Wednesday, Lefor wrote to Republican Rep. Emily O’Brien, chair of the Legislative Audit and Fiscal Review Committee, in a letter “to direct the committee to study the legislative rules, ethics rules, state statutory provisions, and constitutional provisions relating to potential conflicts of interest by a public official.”

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

Democratic House Minority Leader Zac Ista called on Dockter to resign after the verdict. Dockter said he has not yet made decisions about whether to appeal or resign.

“It’s just so fresh right now,” he said.

FARGO, N.D. (Valley News Live) – North Dakota now has an Office of Outdoor Recreation.

Gov. Doug Burgum, alongside state agency officials and partner organizations, made the announcement on May 9. They say it will grow the state’s outdoor recreation economy by strengthening partnerships with the private sector.

North Dakota joins 21 other states in establishing a dedicated Office of Outdoor Recreation. The new office, created by executive order, is being launched using existing resources and personnel.

“This new office will allow us to better coordinate with stakeholders and state agencies as they develop plans, strategies and initiatives to maximize the impact of outdoor recreation in North Dakota,” Burgum said. “We are incredibly excited to connect even more deeply with our partners in the private sector who drive economic development and job creation in our state. From the sales and service of boats, RVs and ATVs, to hunting and fishing gear, bicycles and skis, outdoor recreation is a cornerstone of our state’s economic well-being.”

Among the speakers at Thursday’s announcement were representatives from the North Dakota Parks and Recreation Department – which will serve as the administrative home for the office – the North Dakota Game and Fish Department, North Dakota Department of Commerce, Garrison Convention and Visitors Bureau, Woodland Resort, Action Motor Sports, and Save the Maah Daah Hey.

Officials say outdoor activities are contributing over $1 trillion annually to the U.S. economy. According to the Outdoor Recreation Roundtable, North Dakota sees a $1.3 billion economic boost annually from outdoor recreation, and the Office of Outdoor Recreation is poised to further develop this sector within the state.

“I know I speak for my partners at Game and Fish and Commerce when I say we are thrilled at the opportunity to strategically connect with all outdoor recreation stakeholders in the private sector and state, federal and local governments,” said Cody Schulz, director of North Dakota Parks and Recreation. “The physical and mental health impacts of outdoor recreation are well known, and this office will help to drive the economic health of the state as well. This is about going from really good to great.”

The Office of Outdoor Recreation will promote economic growth, workforce recruitment and retention, enhance quality of life and preserve the state’s unique outdoor heritage. The combined efforts will unlock doors for critical investment, propelling further growth and innovation within the state’s outdoor recreation industry.

“Our members across the $1.1 trillion outdoor recreation economy are celebrating Governor Burgum’s leadership today in establishing the 22nd Office of Outdoor Recreation across the United States,” said Jessica Wahl Turner, President of the Outdoor Recreation Roundtable. “This office will be a catalyst for supporting North Dakota’s $1.3 billion outdoor recreation economy that creates nearly 14,000 jobs for North Dakotans. Outdoor recreation builds thriving economies, helps attract new workers and businesses, generates benefits for physical and mental health, and connects people to treasured natural places. North Dakota’s outdoor recreation businesses, organizations, and communities of all sizes will benefit greatly from the Governor’s deep commitment to the outdoors and we can’t wait to support their future work.”

In addition to significant investments in state and local park infrastructure, the 2023 North Dakota Legislature approved $25 million for Destination Development matching grants. Thirteen projects were funded, with all but one involving outdoor recreation.

As part of the Office of Outdoor Recreation launch, North Dakota Parks and Recreation announced three significant initiatives:

• $1.2 million was awarded to four applicants across the state for construction and rehabilitation of trails through the Recreation Trails Program Grant.
• The Roughrider Trail, a multi-use motorized trail south of Mandan, will be expanded from 16 miles to 20 miles and will connect Fort Abraham Lincoln State Park to wildlife management areas, a gun range, three boat ramps, two historic sites and two Morton County parks.
• The newly launched OuterSpatial mobile app directs users to special events and points of interest within North Dakota’s state parks and over 2,200 miles of statewide trails. The app is free to download for iOS and Android. It offers hiking challenges, an interactive social platform and insight into outdoor recreation opportunities in North Dakota.

Copyright 2024 KVLY. All rights reserved.