North Dakota

Port: Armstrong campaign releases polling showing 41-point lead over Miller

Published

2 years ago

May 10, 2024

Port: Armstrong campaign releases polling showing 41-point lead over Miller

MINOT — The North Dakota Republican Party’s gubernatorial primary between Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller and U.S. Rep. Kelly Armstrong has been heated. Both candidates have spent furiously on promoting their campaigns, and at times

the rhetoric between the two has grown vicious.

But if polling just released to me by the Armstrong campaign is to be believed, the race isn’t particularly close. In a survey conducted by Guidant Polling & Strategy, which was conducted May 4-8, Armstrong has a commanding 41-point lead over Miller.

The survey shows Armstrong leading Miller among Republican primary voters 60% to 19%, with another 19% undecided. That lead remains consistent among voters aged 65+ (Armstrong 61%, Miller 19%), self-described conservative voters (Armstrong 62%, Miller 19%) and voters who say they have an established opinion of both candidates (Armstrong 64%, Miller 24%).

The poll suggests that voters view Armstrong far more favorably than they do Miller. Among likely Republican primary voters, Armstrong is viewed favorably by 69% of respondents, with just 19% having a negative view.

Miller, meanwhile, had mixed numbers. Just 32% of respondents said they view her favorably, 33% said they view her unfavorably, and after her campaign spent over $1.2 million on broadcast and cable television ads alone, 22% said they have no opinion of Miller.

“The last career politician who claimed to be up 40 points wound up losing in a landslide to Doug Burgum,” Miller spokesman Dawson Schefter told me in response to this poll. “Confident campaigns don’t release internal polls and spend hundreds of thousands of dollars falsely attacking their opponents. This is a clear attempt to spin the media from a candidate on the defensive about his record as a politician and trial lawyer. I’d put this poll in the trash where it belongs.”

To Schefter’s point, all polling released by a campaign should be taken with a grain of salt. Campaigns release polling data to serve their electoral agenda, not inform the public. We also don’t have any independent and publicly available polling to filter our perception of Armstrong’s numbers.

But that doesn’t mean these numbers are wrong. While I’m not sure I would have guessed that Armstrong’s lead was this prodigious, I have felt for some time that the congressman is winning. Armstrong’s poll strikes me as accurate. Or, at least, in the ballpark. The poll does jibe with information about other polls from independent sources that have been shared with me, though I wasn’t made privy to the specific details.

Tammy Miller, right, speaks at a press conference on Tuesday, Dec. 20, 2022, where Gov. Doug Burgum introduced her as North Dakota’s next lieutenant governor.

Jeremy Turley / Forum News Service

Gov. Doug Burgum, who is backing Miller’s campaign (though not quite as ardently as I had expected; more on that in a moment), might rebut these numbers by alluding, as Schefter did, to polling in the 2016 gubernatorial primary,

which showed him down 49 points

to Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem roughly a month after he announced his campaign. Burgum, of course, went on to win the primary in a landslide by nearly 21 points.

Burgum was fond of touting that poll during his long-shot presidential bid earlier this political cycle, but I’m not sure it’s an apt comparison for Miller. That poll was released in early March. It’s currently mid-May, with primary day looming on June 11. Also, remember that 2016 was the year of the outsider. It was the year Donald Trump stormed through the Republican primary to the White House. Burgum cast himself as a political outsider that cycle, and whatever the truth of the claim, the voters bought it. But that was eight years ago.

Miller’s campaign has seemed like a copy-and-paste of Burgum’s 2016 effort, right down to the buzzwords and much of the personnel. Only, it’s not 2016 anymore, and Miller, for all her personal achievements and compelling characteristics, isn’t Burgum.

The lazy analysis of Burgum’s political success assumes his money is the difference maker. And, don’t get me wrong, Burgum’s ability and willingness to spend gobs on his political agenda matters, but crediting his success to spending overlooks the fact that he’s always been a strong candidate. He’s warm and charismatic in person. He can work a room. He knows how to win people over on a personal level.

Burgum’s campaign strategies can be hit-and-miss. For example, he spent millions trying to sway legislative races as governor,

and the results were decidedly mixed.

But when Burgum himself is the candidate, when he’s personally engaged and not just spending money on ads and mailers, his success rate is much higher.

One thing we’ve learned about Miller during the campaign process is that she’s uncomfortable with in-person retail politics, and I think that’s cost her.

So, too, has Burgum’s absence on the campaign trail. We’ve all witnessed the spectacle of our current governor campaigning for a spot in a second Trump administration, be it as vice president or a cabinet position. That project has kept Burgum out of state a lot and left him with little time outside of gubernatorial duties to devote to Miller’s campaign.

In summary, how accurate is this poll? Though I wish we had publicly available independent polling corroborating the results, my gut tells me it’s fairly close to reality. Which isn’t to say that Miller can’t move the needle between now and June 11.

Rob Port is a news reporter, columnist, and podcast host for the Forum News Service with an extensive background in investigations and public records. He covers politics and government in North Dakota and the upper Midwest. Reach him at rport@forumcomm.com. Click here to subscribe to his Plain Talk podcast.

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North Dakota

2026 NFL Draft Profile: North Dakota State wide receiver Bryce Lance

Published

10 hours ago

April 17, 2026

Press Room

The Denver Broncos made their big splash this offseason trading for wide receiver Jaylen Waddle to bolster their offense. The position is now five deep at the position with Waddle, Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims Jr., Troy Franklin, and Pat Bryant.

The receiving corps has a lot of talent, but also a lot of questions. Sutton isn’t getting any younger and has a significant cap hit in 2027. Additionally, it’s the last year of Mims’ rookie contract. In my opinion, the Broncos don’t have a long-term replacement in the mix for Sutton at the X position, which could be an area they seek to address in the 2026 NFL Draft.

The Broncos utilizing their second-round selection on a wide receiver is very unlikely. However, a player I believe they will carry a relatively high grade on his North Dakota State standout Bryce Lance. Lance broke out in 2024 during the Bison’s last FCS title with 75 receptions for 1,053 yards and 17 touchdowns catching passes from Cam Miller. This past year, he had 51 receptions, 1,070 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns with projected Day 2 pick Cole Payton throwing him the ball.

He checks a lot of the boxes Head Coach Sean Payton covets at the position. Not only that, but I also believe he has the ability to be an explosive X receiver at the next level. Let’s do a deep dive regarding his strengths and weaknesses, and why and when the Broncos should consider selection him in this year’s draft.

Player Profile: Bryce Lance — Wide Receiver — North Dakota State

Height: 6’3” | Weight: 204 pounds | Arm Length: 32-1/8” | Hand Size: 9-1/4” | Age: 23 Years Old

40-Yard Dash: 4.34 seconds | 10-Yard Split: 1.49 seconds | 3-Cone Drill: 7 seconds

Vertical: 41.5” | Broad Jump: 11’1” | 20-Yard Shuttle: 4.15 seconds

Statistics: 57 games played, 26 starts, 127 receptions with 2,157 receiving yards. 25 receiving touchdowns, as well as 121 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.

Film Room & Highlights

Hart’s Scouting Report

Positives:

Good size and frame to handle being an X receiver on the outside in the NFL
Elite athlete who has top-tier speed and vertical playmaking ability
One of the most productive wide receivers in college football the past two seasons with a penchant for touchdowns and big-time plays that move the chains
Incredible ball tracker down the field with a knack for coming down with highlight reel catches in the endzone, much like Sutton
Amongst the best in this class most with respect to efficiency on outs, posts, corners, screens, and nine routes
Top-notch hops and strong hands who routinely comes down with contested catches
Ample special teams experience serving primarily in that fashion for the Bison in 2022 and 2023 after his redshirt season

Negatives:

Despite tremendous downfield speed, he doesn’t sport much short area quickness
Will likely need to add some strength and weight to handle the rigors of the next level
Route refining and release at the line of scrimmage will need some work to take on NFL caliber talent
Doesn’t have a lot of drops, but would like to see better catching technique, too often body catching instead of extending out and plucking from the air

Hart’s Projection: Top 75 Selection — Late Second Round, Early Third Round Value

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North Dakota

North Dakota boasts most wildlife refuges in the US

Published

22 hours ago

April 16, 2026

Press Room

North Dakota boasts most wildlife refuges in the US

BISMARCK, N.D. (KFYR) – Did you know that North Dakota has 63 wildlife refuges? That is more than any other state! These refuges are places where the land and water are protected to preserve the homes of animals dependent on the land.

North Dakota’s refuges are home to many animals, including moose, badgers, coyotes and more than 250 kinds of birds.

You can visit many of North Dakota’s wildlife refuges, including Audubon National Wildlife Refuge in McLean County, Lake Zahl National Wildlife Refuge in Williams County and Slade National Wildlife Refuge in Burleigh County.

Activities can range from fishing and hunting to enjoying hiking trails and photography.

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North Dakota

Wisconsin basketball wing announces transfer portal destination

Published

1 day ago

April 16, 2026

Press Room

Wisconsin basketball wing announces transfer portal destination

Former Wisconsin Badgers men’s basketball wing Jack Robison announced he’d be transferring to North Dakota State University.

The Bison landed the 6-foot-6 forward who still has two years of eligibility remaining.

The 2026 Summit League Champions finished the 2025-26 season 27-8 overall as they suffered a 92-67 defeat in the NCAA Tournament to No. 3 Michigan State.

With only two seniors on their roster a year ago, NDSU is looking to pick up right where they left off. Robison didn’t have a ton of playing time in his two-year career with the Badgers, but his 30 appearances helped him get his feet wet.

Robison averaged 1.8 minutes per game in 2025-26, which was up from the 1.2 he averaged as a freshman. Not only were his minutes up, but he appeared in four more games as he was beginning to catch Greg Gard’s attention.

The Badgers have a ton of turnover heading into 2026-27, but Robison was the first to announce where he’d be heading. Wisconsin still awaits John Blackwell’s decision to see if he’s staying in the Big Ten or not, but Badgers fans at least know where they can follow Robison’s career for potentially his final two collegiate seasons.

Contact/Follow @TheBadgersWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes and opinion.

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