North Dakota
Port: Armstrong campaign releases polling showing 41-point lead over Miller
MINOT — The North Dakota Republican Party’s gubernatorial primary between Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller and U.S. Rep. Kelly Armstrong has been heated. Both candidates have spent furiously on promoting their campaigns, and at times
the rhetoric between the two has grown vicious.
But if polling just released to me by the Armstrong campaign is to be believed, the race isn’t particularly close. In a survey conducted by Guidant Polling & Strategy, which was conducted May 4-8, Armstrong has a commanding 41-point lead over Miller.
The survey shows Armstrong leading Miller among Republican primary voters 60% to 19%, with another 19% undecided. That lead remains consistent among voters aged 65+ (Armstrong 61%, Miller 19%), self-described conservative voters (Armstrong 62%, Miller 19%) and voters who say they have an established opinion of both candidates (Armstrong 64%, Miller 24%).
The poll suggests that voters view Armstrong far more favorably than they do Miller. Among likely Republican primary voters, Armstrong is viewed favorably by 69% of respondents, with just 19% having a negative view.
Miller, meanwhile, had mixed numbers. Just 32% of respondents said they view her favorably, 33% said they view her unfavorably, and after her campaign spent over $1.2 million on broadcast and cable television ads alone, 22% said they have no opinion of Miller.
“The last career politician who claimed to be up 40 points wound up losing in a landslide to Doug Burgum,” Miller spokesman Dawson Schefter told me in response to this poll. “Confident campaigns don’t release internal polls and spend hundreds of thousands of dollars falsely attacking their opponents. This is a clear attempt to spin the media from a candidate on the defensive about his record as a politician and trial lawyer. I’d put this poll in the trash where it belongs.”
To Schefter’s point, all polling released by a campaign should be taken with a grain of salt. Campaigns release polling data to serve their electoral agenda, not inform the public. We also don’t have any independent and publicly available polling to filter our perception of Armstrong’s numbers.
But that doesn’t mean these numbers are wrong. While I’m not sure I would have guessed that Armstrong’s lead was this prodigious, I have felt for some time that the congressman is winning. Armstrong’s poll strikes me as accurate. Or, at least, in the ballpark. The poll does jibe with information about other polls from independent sources that have been shared with me, though I wasn’t made privy to the specific details.
Jeremy Turley / Forum News Service
Gov. Doug Burgum, who is backing Miller’s campaign (though not quite as ardently as I had expected; more on that in a moment), might rebut these numbers by alluding, as Schefter did, to polling in the 2016 gubernatorial primary,
which showed him down 49 points
to Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem roughly a month after he announced his campaign. Burgum, of course, went on to win the primary in a landslide by nearly 21 points.
Burgum was fond of touting that poll during his long-shot presidential bid earlier this political cycle, but I’m not sure it’s an apt comparison for Miller. That poll was released in early March. It’s currently mid-May, with primary day looming on June 11. Also, remember that 2016 was the year of the outsider. It was the year Donald Trump stormed through the Republican primary to the White House. Burgum cast himself as a political outsider that cycle, and whatever the truth of the claim, the voters bought it. But that was eight years ago.
Miller’s campaign has seemed like a copy-and-paste of Burgum’s 2016 effort, right down to the buzzwords and much of the personnel. Only, it’s not 2016 anymore, and Miller, for all her personal achievements and compelling characteristics, isn’t Burgum.
The lazy analysis of Burgum’s political success assumes his money is the difference maker. And, don’t get me wrong, Burgum’s ability and willingness to spend gobs on his political agenda matters, but crediting his success to spending overlooks the fact that he’s always been a strong candidate. He’s warm and charismatic in person. He can work a room. He knows how to win people over on a personal level.
Burgum’s campaign strategies can be hit-and-miss. For example, he spent millions trying to sway legislative races as governor,
and the results were decidedly mixed.
But when Burgum himself is the candidate, when he’s personally engaged and not just spending money on ads and mailers, his success rate is much higher.
One thing we’ve learned about Miller during the campaign process is that she’s uncomfortable with in-person retail politics, and I think that’s cost her.
So, too, has Burgum’s absence on the campaign trail. We’ve all witnessed the spectacle of our current governor campaigning for a spot in a second Trump administration, be it as vice president or a cabinet position. That project has kept Burgum out of state a lot and left him with little time outside of gubernatorial duties to devote to Miller’s campaign.
In summary, how accurate is this poll? Though I wish we had publicly available independent polling corroborating the results, my gut tells me it’s fairly close to reality. Which isn’t to say that Miller can’t move the needle between now and June 11.
North Dakota
Today in History, 1975: Earthquake rattles portions of Minnesota and the Dakotas, including Fargo-Moorhead
On this day in 1975, a moderate earthquake centered near Morris, Minnesota, shook parts of North Dakota, Minnesota and South Dakota, startling residents but causing no major damage or injuries.
Here is the complete story as it appeared in the paper that day:
Earth Tremor Felt Across Wide Area Including F-M
An earth tremor at 9:56 a.m. today was widely felt in the Fargo-Moorhead area as well as other parts of North Dakota, Minnesota and South Dakota, but the National Weather Service here said it had no reports of damage.
The tremor lasted from two to five seconds, Keith Blessum of the Weather Service said, and ignited telephone reports from a wide area.
The earthquake measured 5.0 on the Richter Scale. Waverly Person of the National Earthquake Information Center in Denver, Colo., said: “The earthquake was moderate and was centered in the Morris, Minn., area. It could have caused much damage in a heavily populated area.”
The quake also was felt in northwestern Iowa. Carl Stover of the Earthquake Information Center said it affected an area 300 miles long and 180 miles wide in four states. He said the exact center of the quake was 10 miles west of Morris.
Person said the earthquake that struck California’s San Fernando Valley in February 1971, killing 54 persons and causing millions of dollars in property damage, measured 6.5 on the Richter Scale.
There were no injuries reported, but authorities in several communities in Minnesota and North and South Dakota reported that residents were startled, buildings shook, dishes rattled and books fell off shelves. Some residents in Alberta, Minn., and Wheaton, Minn., also reported cracked foundations.
Among the first to report locally was Mrs. Paul Dutt, 909 27th St. N., Fargo, who told the Weather Service pictures on the walls moved and a vase moved across the top of the television set.
Marjorie Henderson, who lives on a farm between Enderlin and Lisbon, N.D., reported that the house shook and windows rattled during the tremor, while Mrs. Wesley Belter, who lives south of Casselton, N.D., said that she and four neighbors had similar experiences.
Mrs. Earl Ernst, who lives eight miles east of Wolverton, Minn., also reported that the walls of her trailer home shook and dishes rattled.
Other reports received by the Weather Service at Hector Airport here were from Hankinson and Wahpeton, N.D., and Breckenridge and Ottertail, Minn.; Milbank, S.D., White Rock Dam on the South Dakota border and Canby, Minn.
The earth tremor shook much of northeastern South Dakota and parts of southeastern North Dakota and western Minnesota but apparently caused no injuries, the Associated Press reported.
Donald Johnson, Codington (S.D.) County Civil Defense Director, said the strongest tremors were felt in the South Shore area, about 12 miles northeast of Watertown.
Johnson said a school was evacuated in South Shore, but there were no injuries or major damage reported.
A University of Minnesota professor said that part of that state has a history of minor earthquakes, with about half a dozen reported since the mid-1800s.
Residents in the Willmar, Alexandria, Morris and Long Prairie areas all felt the tremor. It hit about 9:55 a.m., and lasted five to 10 seconds.
No major damage was reported, although the tremor startled many people and shook household furnishings. Some residents in Alberta, near Morris, reported cracked foundations.
Dr. Harold Mooney, professor of geophysics at the University of Minnesota, estimated the tremor would have measured 4 or 4.5 on the Richter Scale. Mooney’s seismograph wasn’t operating when the tremor struck, and he said his was the only such measuring device in the area.
“The motion of a fault in the western part of the state sent out seismic waves at thousands of feet per second, and that’s what the people felt,” Mooney said.
“There is a history of earthquakes in that area, so this one was not without precedent.”
The most recent was near Alexandria in 1950, he said. The most severe was near Brainerd in 1917; that one broke some windows and knocked things off shelves.
President Trump traveled to North Dakota on Wednesday to visit the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library before its official opening on Saturday.
“He had a freakin’ wild life,” Trump told an audience at a Western-themed amphitheater, the Associated Press reported. “He didn’t want to be quiet. He wanted to be great.”
The library is expected to be a major source of tourism in rural western North Dakota.
-The Hagstrom Report
(North Dakota Monitor) –BISMARCK, N.D.– A West Fargo attorney will be the next member of the North Dakota Ethics Commission.
The Ethic Commission selection committee on Tuesday named Lisa Edison-Smith to fill an open position on the five-person commission.
Edison-Smith will replace Ron Goodman, who is retiring. Her term will expire in August 2027.
Edison-Smith is an employment and labor attorney with the Vogel Law Firm but plans to retire by the end of the year, according to a questionnaire she filled out for the selection committee. She also has served as a mediator.
She is a graduate of North Dakota State University and the Hamline School of Law.
Senate Majority Leader David Hogue, one of three members of the selection committee, said the committee was impressed with her resume and her interview.
“She made it clear that she’s an independent thinker and she’s not afraid to lead, which includes the ability to dissent,” Hogue said. “So to me, that was important.”
In her questionnaire answers, Edison-Smith said the commission should not usurp the Legislature’s lawmaking authority but adopt rules and conduct investigations in accordance with state law.
She also said it is important for Ethics Commission staff to review “facially deficient or frivolous complaints” and for the commission to dismiss those cases in 60 to 90 days.
The other finalist was North Dakota Insurance and Securities Department attorney Garrett Bryan.
The selection committee, composed of Gov. Kelly Armstrong, Hogue, R-Minot, and Senate Minority Leader Kathy Hogan, D-Fargo, also recently named Burleigh County Sheriff Kelly Leben to a spot on the commission.
The Ethics Commission’s duties include adopting ethics rules, investigating alleged violations and issuing advisory opinions to help public officials navigate ethical issues. They are paid a stipend for every day they meet, plus reimbursement for travel.
North Dakota voters in 2018 passed a measure to establish the Ethics Commission.
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