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ANALYSIS: Illinois’ official U.S. census numbers have not changed

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ANALYSIS: Illinois’ official U.S. census numbers have not changed


SPRINGFIELD, Sick. — Gov. J.B. Pritzker mentioned Tuesday that he’s asking President Joe Biden and the federal authorities to extend Illinois’ share of federal funding to mirror the outcomes of a latest Census Bureau examine displaying the state was very doubtless undercounted within the 2020 census.

The information launch from the governor’s workplace proclaimed, “Up to date census information signifies Illinois has surpassed 13 million residents for the primary time in historical past.” Additional down, within the physique of the discharge, it states: “The adjusted census outcomes present a rise in Illinois’ inhabitants as folks transfer to the state in pursuit of financial and employment alternatives.”

In the meantime, Democrats in Illinois’ congressional delegation wrote on to the Census Bureau to ask how the survey information will likely be used, warning: “Any federal entities disregarding Illinois’ revised inhabitants estimate in figuring out these funding allocations may have grave penalties for these affected by such underfunding.”

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Whereas there may be nothing fallacious with a state governor or member of Congress attempting to maximise federal sources for his or her state — they do this on a regular basis as a part of their job — one factor needs to be made crystal clear: The official 2020 census numbers launched final August haven’t been modified.

They haven’t been “adjusted,” “up to date” or “revised.”

Anyone who goes to the Census Bureau’s web site to search for Illinois’ inhabitants within the 2020 census will discover the quantity reported in August, roughly 12.8 million, not the 13 million-plus that many individuals at the moment are claiming.

“In line with our prior observe, we is not going to be adjusting the census counts for apportionment or redistricting,” Census Bureau statistician Timothy Kennel mentioned throughout a media briefing final week. “The Put up-Enumeration Survey is a likelihood survey of about 161,000 housing models in about 10,000 blocks throughout the nation that’s impartial of the census operation.”

However Pritzker and congressional Democrats aren’t attempting to achieve again the U.S. Home seat that Illinois misplaced this 12 months. They’re involved about Illinois’ share of roughly $1.5 trillion in federal funding that flows to state and native governments primarily based on formulation that use census information.

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Pritzker’s assertions, together with these of many others, are primarily based on final week’s launch of knowledge from the Census Bureau’s “Put up-Enumeration Survey,” or PES for brief, which confirmed the state might need gained as many as 250,000 residents for the reason that 2010 census.

That was newsworthy as a result of the precise census confirmed a inhabitants lack of about 18,000 residents, or 0.1%. And even that was a a lot smaller loss than many had anticipated.

Primarily based on information gathered in that survey, Illinois was amongst six states that had “statistically important” undercounts within the 2020 census whereas eight states had statistically important overcounts.

With out getting too deep into the weeds concerning the science of sampling and margins of error, let’s attempt to perceive precisely what the Census Bureau did.

After every decennial census, bureau officers go into the sphere to conduct a follow-up survey, often known as the PES. This 12 months, they randomly chosen 161,000 households — out of roughly 127 million occupied housing models within the nation — and despatched the occupants a survey questionnaire, principally asking them the identical questions that seem on the census kind: names, ages and demographic profile of every occupant of the family.

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After subtracting from the pattern any vacant buildings, group dwelling quarters and households that didn’t reply to the survey, they have been left with a pattern of about 114,000 households nationwide. From there, they in contrast the data on the survey kind with the data submitted within the precise 2020 enumeration.

Like every random pattern survey, nonetheless, the PES is topic to a margin of sampling error.

On this case, Illinois’ undercount was estimated at 1.97%. That will imply the inhabitants of the state that was reported within the 2020 census was solely 98.03% of what it ought to have been, primarily based on the survey.

However statisticians like to precise these sorts of numbers when it comes to “confidence intervals.” On this case it means they’ll say “with 90% confidence” that the undercount may have been as massive as 3.43%, or as small as 0.51%.

So how may which have occurred?

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There are lots of potentialities and the PES doesn’t even attempt to reply the query. Some folks fail to fill out the census kind or fill it out incorrectly. Some would possibly fail to report all of the folks dwelling of their family, and others would possibly add people who find themselves simply staying there briefly whereas their precise residence is being repaired.

One other chance distinctive to 2020 is that faculty college students who have been enrolled in out-of-state faculties however have been pressured to maneuver again dwelling when campuses shut down as a result of pandemic have been counted as dwelling at dwelling when, in a standard 12 months, they’d have been counted the place they have been attending faculty.

One other necessary factor to notice concerning the census information is that the 2 operations — the precise headcount census and the PES — are separate and impartial of each other. The survey shouldn’t be a complement to or correction of the particular census.

So why does the Census Bureau do it?

“These 2020 Census protection estimates assist us perceive the 2020 Census high quality and can inform our plans for the 2030 Census,” Kennel mentioned.

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Certainly, the U.S. Supreme Court docket dominated in 1999 that the Census Bureau is barred by the Structure and federal regulation from utilizing statistical sampling information to regulate congressional apportionment, though that ruling mentioned nothing concerning the distribution of federal funds.

However doing so would possibly increase some sensitive political points, as a result of in the event you urge the Biden administration to allocate cash primarily based on inhabitants estimates from a survey, fairly than the precise census, it will not solely improve funding for undercounted states but in addition reduce funding for overcounted states.

And which state had the biggest overcount, percentagewise? That will be Delaware, by 5.45%. Delaware, in fact, being the house state of President Joe Biden.

Peter Hancock is a Statehouse reporter for Capitol Information Illinois, a nonprofit, nonpartisan information service protecting state authorities that’s distributed to greater than 400 newspapers statewide. It’s funded primarily by the Illinois Press Basis and the Robert R. McCormick Basis.



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Illinois

Game Preview | #18 Purdue at Illinois | Boilers set eyes on double bye

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Game Preview | #18 Purdue at Illinois | Boilers set eyes on double bye


Game Preview | #18 Purdue at Illinois | Boilers set eyes on double bye

#18 Purdue 21-9 (13-6) at Illinois 19-11 (11-8)

There is one case where Purdue’s Big Ten Tournament standings are simple: if Purdue beats Illinois, it will get a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.

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Purdue is one of three current Big Ten teams with six losses in the conference. Michigan adds another potential team as it has 5 losses in the conference and a final game at Michigan State to finish the season. That means at the end of the weekend, four Big Ten teams could be left with six losses. None of the teams below Michigan State vying for a double-bye play each other. So all could win, all could lose, or any mix of the two.

Illinois has less to battle for in the Big Ten Tournament. It can move up or down a spot or two, but it’ll be in line for a single game bye win or lose.

But Illinois has plenty to play for with its seeding. After a decent start to the season, Illinois has been plagued with injuries, illnesses, and inconsistent play. Illinois got back on track in its last game by beating Michigan on the road, 93-73, but it projects around the 8-9 seed currently which means a second round game, most likely, against a one seed.

A win against Purdue could be worth half a seed, and thrown in with a positive run in the Big Ten Tournament, and Illinois could find itself improving its stock in the final two weeks of the season.

Even if there weren’t a bunch of post-season implications, this is a fascinating matchup of styles. Illinois is one of the nation’s best offensive rebounding teams. Purdue’s struggled on the glass at times this year. Illinois is also one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country.

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Purdue will bring the #1 offense in the Big Ten to Champaign where it won at last year in dramatic fashion.

Glass worries

Matt Painter was watching Illinois take it to Michigan on Sunday. Illinois dominated the glass, grabbing 19 offensive rebounds on the way to throttling the Wolverines 93-73 on the road.

Painter said you always pay a bit more attention to what the team did in its last game, and that means for Purdue, it has to really concentrate on the rebounding battle with one of the best rebounding teams in the country. Illinois isn’t just big inside, it uses its advantages all over the roster to attack the glass.

“In lieu of everything,” Painter said about the way Illinois dominates the glass. “Their quickness got a lot of rebounds, but their physicalness at all positions. A lot of times you don’t see that across the board… but they have really good positional size, strength, and quickness across the board. Their guards get on the boards, their forwards, obviously their centers.”

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Purdue’s lack of size and interior presence has been a problem for most the season. Not only on the glass, but with Purdue’s primary big men, Calebu Furst and Trey Kaufman-Renn, getting too caught up in scrums going for rebounds and getting in foul trouble. Kaufman-Renn has a strong history against Illinois, including a season-high 23 point performance against them last season, but he’s been foul prone in Big Ten play for Purdue.

Illinois is grabbing 36.1% of their misses, a number that’s inflated by the fact that Illinois is one of the most prolific three-point shooting teams in the country while also being one of the least efficient teams at shooting threes.

That will make for a fascinating matchup for both teams. Purdue would love if Illinois stays on the perimeter. Purdue is allowing teams to shoot just 30.5% from three – just .3% below what Illinois shoots as a team. That’s the 26th best mark in the country for Purdue’s defense. That’s the 323rd best shooting percentage in the country for Illinois.

But Purdue has been one of the worst teams at defending inside the arc, something Illinois does very well. Illinois is making 57.4% from two (14th best mark) and Purdue is giving up 56% from inside the arc (337th best mark).

But execution has not been Illinois’ strengths this season and Purdue has had flashes of effective defense that usually features turning teams over, something Illinois with its fast pace is prone to do.

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Award season

This could be an important game for Purdue’s individual efforts. With Braden Smith and Wisconsin’s John Tonje locked into a back and forth player of the year race – it’s probably still Smith’s to win though Purdue’s four game losing streak that saw a two game struggle for Smith brought Tonje back into the mix.

Tonje and his Badgers will get a final game against Penn State at home on Saturday.

Tonje goes into the game averaging 19.1 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.7 assists on 47.1% field goal percentage and 38.2% from three.

Braden Smith is at 16.3 points a game, 4.5 rebounds, 8.7 assists, and 2.4 steals a game on 44.6% field goal shooting and 40.6% from three.

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There’s probably a stronger than been discussed argument that Trey Kaufman-Renn is closer in the player of the year award than admitted because he shares the same team as the pre-season pick. TKR is leading the Big Ten in scoring 19.4 points per game, 6.1 rebounds, and 2.3 assists on 61.5% shooting from the floor.

Rule of thumb personally is if a player is going to finish breaking the assist per game record in all of the Big Ten, held by none other than Magic Johnson, he gets my vote for player of the year. A strong game and win against Illinois might take any other doubts out of play for Braden Smith.



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Illinois voters favor keeping current state flag in public poll

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Illinois voters favor keeping current state flag in public poll


Illinois residents overwhelmingly support keeping the current state flag, Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias announced Thursday after a five-week public voting period to consider a redesign.

Current state flag holds strong

The backstory:

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More than 165,000 of the nearly 385,000 votes cast—about 43 percent—favored the existing flag, outpacing the next five top designs combined. 

Voters were given the option to choose from the Illinois Flag Commission’s Top 10 new designs or select from three former flag iterations, including the current one, which has remained largely unchanged for a century.

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“Some may call it an SOB – a seal on a bedsheet – and the vexillogical community may hate it, but people overwhelmingly prefer our current state flag,” Giannoulias said. “Thank you to everyone who made their voice heard on the future of this important symbol of state pride.”

What’s next:

The Illinois Flag Commission will submit its findings and recommendations to the General Assembly by April 1, after which lawmakers will decide whether to adopt a new flag, return to a previous design, or retain the current one.

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The commission was created through Senate Bill 1818, sponsored by State Sen. Doris Turner (D-Springfield) and State Rep. Kam Buckner (D-Chicago), and signed into law by Gov. J.B. Pritzker in 2023. The panel selected its Top 10 designs in December from 4,844 public submissions received during a six-week entry period last fall.

The results of the redesign contest are below:

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Illinois lawmakers brace for possible federal cuts to Medicaid

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Illinois lawmakers brace for possible federal cuts to Medicaid


SPRINGFIELD — Health care advocates, hospital officials and people who rely on Medicaid for their medical coverage warned state lawmakers Wednesday of consequences that could result from proposed cuts in federal Medicaid funding.

The video in the player above is from a previous report.

“This is it. This is absolutely it. This is the line,” said Carrie Chapman, senior director of litigation and advocacy at Legal Council for Health Justice, a Chicago-based advocacy group. “Medicaid stays or goes as the program that we’ve know it right now.”

Chapman was among nearly a dozen people who spoke Wednesday to an Illinois House budget committee that oversees spending for human services, including Medicaid, the public health insurance program that covers about 3.4 million lower-income people in Illinois.

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Established in 1965 alongside Medicare, the federally funded health insurance program for seniors, Medicaid has traditionally targeted lower-income pregnant women, children, seniors, parents, and people with disabilities. In Illinois, the federal government pays approximately 51% of the cost of covering those individuals’ care.

However, with passage of the Affordable Care Act in 2010, Medicaid eligibility was expanded to include working-age adults with incomes up to 138% of the federal poverty level. Approximately 770,000 people in that category are covered by Illinois Medicaid and the federal government pays 90% of the cost for that expansion group.

Currently, according to the Illinois Department of Healthcare and Family Services, Medicaid pays for about half of all child births in Illinois and two-thirds of all nursing home days. Nearly 50% of Illinoisians living with HIV are covered by Medicaid, as well as almost 80% of people served by community mental health centers.

All told, according to the state comptroller’s office, Illinois spent about $36.9 billion on Medicaid in the fiscal year that ended June 30. Illinois Department of Healthcare and Family Services Director Lizzie Whitehorn said about 62% of total state Medicaid spending comes from the federal government.

At issue was a budget resolution that recently passed the Republican-controlled U.S. House in Washington, which calls for deep cuts in federal spending. Part of that resolution calls on the U.S. House Committee on Energy and Commerce, which has jurisdiction over Medicaid, to cut $880 billion from the federal budget deficit over the next 10 years.

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Because Medicaid makes up a large part of all the programs the Energy and Commerce Committee oversees, many have assumed that cuts of that size would have to include substantial cuts to Medicaid.

“There’s no way they can cut that much out of the federal budget without touching Medicaid, because Medicaid is such a substantial portion of the discretionary funds that they have access to,” Rep. Anna Moeller, D-Elgin, who chairs the legislative appropriations committee, said after the hearing.

Whitehorn noted that the expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act resulted in cutting the state’s uninsured rate in half and reducing the amount of uncompensated care delivered in Illinois by more than a third.

“Federal cuts would mean we have to limit services or eligibility,” she told the committee. “And we don’t have the money as a state to make up the difference.”

A.J. Wilhelmi, president and CEO of the Illinois Health and Hospital Association, described the list of proposals being considered in Washington as “both sweeping and shocking.” He said they include turning federal Medicaid spending into a block grant to states, establishing per capita caps on Medicaid benefits, and eliminating certain funding mechanisms, known as provider taxes, that are used to draw down additional federal matching funds to support the cost of operating hospitals.

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“And make no mistake, there would be no hospital Medicaid program without hospital provider taxes,” he said.

Last month, Gov. JB Pritzker laid out a $55.2 billion budget proposal to the Democratic-controlled General Assembly to fund state government operations over the 2026 fiscal year, which begins July 1. In his budget address, however, he noted the uncertainty of various streams of federal funds that are used to help pay the cost of many state operations, including Medicaid.

Rep. Bob Morgan, D-Deerfield, who serves on the committee, said Wednesday that the decision about future federal Medicaid funding is in the hands of the Republican-controlled Congress. He urged GOP members of the General Assembly to use their influence to persuade the three Illinois Republicans in the U.S. House to vote against cutting Medicaid funding.

“So I’ll just close with my request to the minority spokesmen and the minority members of this committee to come back in a week to share with this entire committee those letters and those emails and those texts in discussion with us about the things they have done to make sure that the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate and the president do not make these horrible, horrible, damaging, life-impacting cuts to our Medicaid system,” he said.

Republicans on the panel argued that the subject of federal budget negotiations was beyond the scope of the state legislative committee’s purview and suggested Wednesday’s hearing was more about partisan politics than solving the state’s budget issues.

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“And so this, I think, is performative,” said Rep. William Hauter, R-Morton. “We don’t know what will happen. There’s a lot of things that we have no control over, budget negotiations going on at the national level.”

Moeller argued the hearing was more than a stage show, noting that Congress faces a March 14 deadline to pass a bill to renew federal spending authority or face a partial shutdown of the federal government.

“This hearing this morning is far more than performative,” she said. “We are going to be heading into our budget cycle, our budget making process, with huge uncertainty hanging over our heads. What happens on March 15, in the next few weeks, in Washington, D.C., will have a direct impact on the level of funding that we will have available for all of these important programs.”

Capitol News Illinois is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news service that distributes state government coverage to hundreds of news outlets statewide. It is funded primarily by the Illinois Press Foundation and the Robert R. McCormick Foundation.



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