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Dollar Doubts Dominate Gathering of Global Economic Leaders

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Dollar Doubts Dominate Gathering of Global Economic Leaders

On the sidelines of the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to convey an important message about the United States dollar.

Speaking to a crowd of global policymakers, regulators and investors, Mr. Bessent sought to allay fears that had ballooned in recent weeks about the dollar’s global standing and the country’s role as the safest haven during times of stress. He reiterated that the administration would continue to have a “strong-dollar policy” and affirmed that it would remain the currency that the rest of the world wanted to hold, even though it had weakened against most major currencies.

For participants at the event, Mr. Bessent’s comments were a needed salve after a bruising couple of weeks in financial markets as a result of President Trump’s trade war. Violent swings in stocks, coinciding with the weakening of the dollar as investors fled U.S. government bonds, had incited panic.

The fact that Mr. Bessent found it necessary to emphasize that message in front of such a big crowd underscored how precarious the situation had become since Mr. Trump returned to the White House less than 100 days ago. What now looms large are uncomfortable questions about what happens if the international community starts to lose faith in the dollar and other U.S. assets, something that economists warn would be costly for Americans.

“People are playing through scenarios that previously had been judged unthinkable, and they’re playing them through in a very serious kind of way in the spirit of contingency planning,” said Nathan Sheets, the chief economist at Citigroup and a Treasury official in the Obama administration.

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“If the United States is going to pursue aggressive economic policies, it’s natural for the rest of the world to step back and say, ‘Well, do we want to buy U.S. assets as we have in the past?’”

At a similar gathering hosted by the I.M.F. and World Bank six months ago, attendees were preparing for an entirely different economic backdrop. Convening less than two weeks before the presidential election, they still had in their sights a rare soft landing in which the major central banks finished their fight against high inflation while managing to avoid a recession.

The tariffs Mr. Trump had been talking about on the campaign trail were top of mind, but for the most part, they were viewed as a negotiating tactic. Any turn toward protectionism was widely expected to push up the value of the dollar compared with other currencies. The rationale was that tariffs would lower demand for imported goods, since they would make them more expensive for American consumers, and over time result in fewer dollars being exchanged for foreign currencies.

But since Inauguration Day, the opposite has occurred. An index that tracks the dollar against a basket of major trading partners has fallen nearly 10 percent in the last three months. It now hovers near a three-year low. The sharpest slide came after Mr. Trump announced large tariffs on nearly all imports in April. While he temporarily reversed course, the dollar has yet to recoup its losses.

There are reasons not to read too much into its recent weakening. The U.S. economic outlook has fundamentally changed. Businesses are “frozen” by tariffs, Christopher J. Waller, a governor at the Federal Reserve, said this week as he warned about layoffs stemming from the uncertainty.

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Economists have sharply scaled back their estimates for growth while raising their estimates for inflation, a combination that carries a whiff of stagflation. In that environment, it is not surprising that the dollar and other U.S. assets appear less appealing.

Dollar depreciation — even if extreme — also does not necessarily translate to a loss of stature in the global financial system. There have been previous big drops in the value of the dollar that have not incited a wholesale shift away from the currency’s primacy, said Jonas Goltermann, the deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics.

But at this year’s spring meetings, there was a palpable sense that something more ominous could be taking place. Joyce Chang, JPMorgan’s chair of global research, noted a disconnect between domestic and international participants at the conference that the Wall Street bank hosted during the week of the meetings.

U.S.-based investors appeared less concerned about a structural shift away from the country’s assets and more focused on the ways in which Mr. Trump could course-correct on his economic policies. International investors were consumed by the prospects of a “regime change” in the financial system and a “new world order,” Ms. Chang said.

Mr. Trump had recently escalated his attacks on Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, fanning fears about how much the administration would encroach on the central bank’s independence. That longstanding separation from the White House is broadly seen as essential to the smooth functioning of the financial system.

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“The dollar’s role in the system was not ordained from above,” said Mark Sobel, a former Treasury official who is the U.S. chairman of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. “It’s a reflection of the properties of the United States.”

Those include a large economy that transacts with the world; the financial system’s deepest, most liquid capital markets; a credible central bank; and the rule of law.

“I do believe that Trump is doing permanent damage,” Mr. Sobel said.

It is hard to overstate the dominance of the dollar globally, meaning there are real limitations to how significantly private and public investors can diversify away from it, even if they want to.

Most trade is invoiced in dollars. It is the leading currency for international borrowing. Central banks also prefer to hold dollar assets more than anything else, and by a wide margin.

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“Anybody who’s looking for diversification has to be realistic,” said Isabelle Mateos y Lago, the chief economist at BNP Paribas. “Reserve assets, by definition, have to be liquid.”

Alternatives do exist, but they are hobbled by their own weaknesses. China lacks open, deep and liquid capital markets, and its currency does not float freely, tarnishing its appeal globally. Top European leaders — including Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank — have talked more readily about bolstering the prominence of the euro, something that is considered more plausible now that countries like Germany are stepping up their spending. But the amount of available euro-denominated safe assets pales in comparison with that of U.S. capital markets.

Still, in the recent period of volatility, investors have found a number of places to take cover. The euro, Swiss franc and Japanese yen have been clear beneficiaries. Gold has rallied sharply, too.

“You don’t need to have the role of the dollar as a reserve asset go to zero,” said Ms. Mateos y Lago. “A multipolar system can totally work.”

When asked at Wednesday’s event, which was hosted by the Institute for International Finance, whether the dollar’s reserve currency status was a burden or a privilege, Mr. Bessent said: “I actually am not sure that anyone else wants it.”

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But economists warn that Americans would be losing clear benefits if the government was too cavalier about the dollar’s shedding its special status.

The country’s exporters would reap rewards, as a weaker dollar would make their products more competitive. However, that advantage could come at the expense of reduced spending power for Americans abroad and higher borrowing costs at a time when the government has huge financing needs.

Despite the pain that Americans may have to bear, the global financial system would be far more “resilient” if other currencies shared the dollar’s global role over time, said Barry Eichengreen, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley. During times of stress, that would mean multiple sources of liquidity.

However, three months into Mr. Trump’s second term, Mr. Eichengreen warned that a “dire scenario is now on the table” — a sharp sell-off of dollar-denominated assets into cash.

“A chaotic rush out of the dollar would be a crisis,” he said. “All of a sudden, the world would not have the international liquidity that 21st-century globalization depends on.”

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23andMe sells gene-testing business to DNA drug maker Regeneron

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23andMe sells gene-testing business to DNA drug maker Regeneron

Bankrupt genetic-testing firm 23andMe agreed to sell its data bank, which once contained DNA samples from about 15 million people, to the drug developer Regeneron Pharmaceuticals for $256 million.

The sale comes after a wave of customers and government officials demanded that 23andMe protect the genetic data it had built up over the years by collecting saliva samples from customers.

Regeneron pledged to comply with 23andMe’s privacy policy, which allows customers to have their personal information deleted upon request.

“We have deep experience with large-scale data management,” Regeneron co-founder George D. Yancopoulos said in a statement. The company “has a proven track record of safeguarding the genetic data of people across the globe, and, with their consent, using this data to pursue discoveries that benefit science and society.”

23andMe filed for bankruptcy in March after failing to generate sustainable profits by providing medical and ancestry-related genetic testing to more than 15 million customers.

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About 550,000 people had subscribed to the company’s two primary services, which hasn’t been enough to keep the company afloat. One of those services, Lemonaid Health, was not part of the sale and will be wound down, 23andMe said in a statement.

As part of 23andMe’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy, a judge approved the appointment of a privacy ombudsman to monitor the sale process and ensure compliance with privacy policies related to the genetic material submitted by customers.

That material, and the genetic data it produced, was 23andMe’s most valuable asset. The company has said any buyer must comply with current privacy protections and federal regulations.

Regeneron said it will continue to run 23andMe’s personal genomic services once the sale closes. The judge overseeing the bankruptcy must approve the sale before it can be completed.

In the months leading up its bankruptcy, 23andMe tried to attract a buyer while struggling to end a class-action lawsuit related to a 2023 data breach that gave hackers access to customer information. The company will try to resolve those claims as part of the bankruptcy.

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The case is 23andMe Holding Co., number 25-40976, in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of Missouri.

Church and Smith write for Bloomberg.

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Edison’s safety record declined last year. Executive bonuses rose anyway

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Edison’s safety record declined last year. Executive bonuses rose anyway

The state law that shielded Southern California Edison and other utilities from liability for wildfires sparked by their equipment came with a catch: Top utility executives would be forced to take a pay cut if their company’s safety record declined.

Edison’s safety record did decline last year. The number of fires sparked by its equipment soared to 178, from 90 the year before and 39% above the five-year average.

Serious injuries suffered by employees jumped by 56% over the average. Five contractors working on its electric system died.

As a result of that performance, the utility’s parent company, Edison International, cut executive bonuses awarded for the 2024 year, it told California regulators in an April 1 report.

For Edison International employees, planned executive cash bonuses were cut by 5%, and executives at Southern California Edison saw their bonuses shrink by 3%, said Sergey Trakhtenberg, a compensation specialist for the company.

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But cash bonuses for four of Edison’s top five executives actually rose last year, by as much as 17%, according to a separate March report by Edison to federal regulators. Their long-term bonuses of stock and options, which are far more valuable and not tied to safety, also rose.

Of the top five executives, only Pedro Pizarro, chief executive of Edison International, saw his cash bonus decline. He received a cash bonus of 128% of his salary rather than the planned 135% because of the safety failures, the company said, for total compensation including salary of $13.8 million.

The cash bonuses increased for the other top four executives despite the safety-related deductions because of how they performed on other responsibilities, said Trakhtenberg, Edison’s director of total rewards. He said bonuses would have been higher were it not for safety-related reductions.

“Compensation is structured to promote safety,” Trakhtenberg said, calling it “the main focus of the company.”

Consumer advocates say the fact that bonuses increased in spite of the decline in safety highlights a flaw in AB 1054, the 2019 law that reduced the liability of for-profit utility companies like Edison for damaging wildfires ignited by their equipment.

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AB 1054 created a wildfire fund to pay for fire damages in an effort to ensure that utilities wouldn’t be rendered insolvent by having to bear billions of dollars in damage costs.

In return, the legislation said executive bonus plans for utilities should be “structured to promote safety as a priority and to ensure public safety and utility financial stability.”

“All these supposed accountability measures that were put into the bill are turning out to be toothless,” said Mark Toney, executive director of The Utility Reform Network, a consumer advocacy group in San Francisco.

“If executives aren’t feeling a significant reduction in salary when there is a significant increase in wildfire safety incidents,” Toney said, “then the incentive is gone.”

One of the executives who received an increased cash bonus was Adam Umanoff, Edison’s general counsel.

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Umanoff was expected to get 85% of his $706,000 salary, or $600,000, as a cash bonus as his target at the year’s beginning. The deduction for safety failures reduced that bonus, Trakhtenberg said. But Umanoff’s performance on other goals “was significantly above target” and thus increased his cash bonus to 101% of his salary.

So despite the safety failures, Umanoff received a cash bonus of $717,000, or 19% higher than he was expected to receive.

“If you can just make it up somewhere else,” Toney said, “the incentive is gone.”

The utility recently told its investors that AB 1054 will protect it from potential liabilities of billions of dollars if its equipment is found to have sparked the Eaton fire on Jan. 7, resulting in 18 deaths and the destruction of thousands of homes and commercial buildings.

The cause of the blaze, which videos captured igniting under one of Edison’s transmission towers, is still under investigation. Pizarro has said the reenergization of an idle transmission line is now a leading theory of what sparked the deadly fire.

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The 2019 legislation was passed in a matter of weeks to bolster the financial health of the state’s for-profit electric companies after the Camp fire in Butte County, which was caused by a Pacific Gas & Electric transmission line.

The wildfire destroyed the town of Paradise and killed 85 people, and the damages helped push PG&E into bankruptcy.

At the bill-signing ceremony, Gov. Gavin Newsom touted its language that said utilities could not access the money in a new state wildfire fund and cap their liabilities from a blaze caused by their equipment unless they tied executive compensation to their safety performance.

In April, Edison filed its mandatory annual safety performance metrics report with the Public Utilities Commission as it seeks approval to raise customer electric rates by more than 10% this year.

In the report, Edison said that because its safety record worsened in 2024 on certain key metrics, its executives took “a total deduction of 18 points” on a 100-point scale used in determining bonuses.

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“Safety and compliance are foundational to SCE, and events such as employee fatalities or serious injuries to the public can result in meaningful deduction or full elimination” of executive incentive compensation, the company wrote.

Edison didn’t explain in the report what an 18-point deduction meant to executives in actual dollar terms, another point of frustration with consumer advocates trying to determine if executive compensation plans genuinely comply with AB 1054.

“Without seeing dollar figures, it is impossible to ascertain whether a utility’s incentive compensation plan is reasonable,” the Public Advocates Office at the state Public Utilities Commission wrote in a 2022 letter to wildfire safety regulators.

To try to determine how much the missed safety goals actually impacted the compensation of Edison executives last year, The Times looked at a separate federal securities report Edison filed for investors known as the proxy statement.

In that March report, Edison detailed how the majority of its compensation to executives is based on its profit and stock price appreciation, and not safety.

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Safety helps determine about 50% of the cash bonuses paid to executives each year, the report said. But more valuable are the long-term incentive bonuses, which are paid in shares of stock and stock options and are based on earnings.

The Utility Reform Network, which is also known as TURN, pointed to those stock bonuses in a 2021 letter to regulators where it questioned whether Edison and the state’s other two big for-profit utilities were actually tying executive compensation to safety.

“Good financial performance does not necessarily mean that the utility prioritizes safety,” TURN staff wrote in the letter.

Trakhtenberg disagreed, saying the company’s “long-term incentives are focused on promoting financial stability.” A key part of that is the company’s ability “over the long term to safely deliver reliable, affordable power,” he said.

Trakhtenberg noted that the state Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety had approved the company’s executive compensation plan in October, saying it met the requirements of AB 1054, as well as every year since the agency was established in July 2021.

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The Times asked the energy safety office if it audited the utilities’ compensation reports or tried to determine how much money Edison executives lost because of the safety failures.

Sandy Cooney, a spokesman for the agency, said that the office had “no statutory authority … to audit executive compensation structures.” He referred the reporter to Edison for information on how much executive compensation had actually declined in dollar amounts because of the missed safety goals.

A committee of Edison board members determines what goals will be tied to safety, Trakhtenberg said, and whether those goals have been met.

Even though five contractors died last year while working on Edison’s electrical system, the committee didn’t include contractor safety as a goal, according to the company’s documents.

And the committee said the company met its goal in protecting the public even though three people died from its equipment and there was a 27% increase in deaths and serious injuries among the public compared to the five-year average.

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Trakhtenberg said most of the serious injuries happened to people committing theft or vandalism, which is why the committee said the goal had been met.

Edison has told regulators that if its equipment starts a catastrophic wildfire, the committee could decide to eliminate executives’ cash bonuses.

But the company’s documents show that it hasn’t eliminated or even reduced bonuses for the 2022 Fairview fire in Riverside County, which killed two people, destroyed 22 homes and burned 28,000 acres.

In 2023, investigators blamed Edison’s equipment for igniting the fire, saying one of its conductors came in contact with a telecommunications cable, creating sparks that fell into vegetation.

Trakhtenberg said the board’s compensation committee reviewed the circumstances of the fire that year and found that the company had acted “prudently” in maintaining its equipment. The committee decided not to reduce executive bonuses for the fire, he said.

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In March, the Public Utilities Commission fined Edison $2.2 million for the fire, saying it had violated four safety regulations, including by failing to cooperate with investigators.

Trakhtenberg said the compensation committee would reconsider its decision not to penalize executives for the deadly fire at its next meeting.

TURN has repeatedly asked regulators not to approve Edison’s compensation plans, detailing how its committee has “undue discretion” in setting goals and then determining whether they have been met.

But the energy safety office has approved the plans anyway. Toney said he believes the responsibility for reviewing the compensation plans and utilities’ wildfire safety should be transferred back to the Public Utilities Commission, which had done the work until 2021.

The energy safety office has rules that make the review process less transparent than it is at the commission, he said.

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“The whole process, we feel is rigged heavily in favor of utilities,” he said.

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Cable giant Charter to buy Cox in a $34.5-billion deal, uniting providers that serve SoCal

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Cable giant Charter to buy Cox in a .5-billion deal, uniting providers that serve SoCal

Charter Communications and Cox Communications plan to merge in a $34.5-billion deal that would unite Southern California’s two major cable TV and internet providers to sell services under the Spectrum brand.

The proposed consolidation, announced Friday, comes as the industry grapples with accelerating cable customer losses amid the shift to streaming.

The companies could face even more cord-cutting after their long-time programming partner, Walt Disney Co., begins offering its ESPN sports channel directly to fans in a stand-alone streaming service debuting this fall.

If approved by Charter shareholders and regulators, the merger would end one of the longest TV sports blackouts.

Cox customers in Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills Estates and Orange County would finally have the Dodgers’ TV channel available in their lineups. For more than a decade, Cox has refused to carry SportsNet LA because of its high cost.

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Charter distributes the Dodgers channel as part of a $8.35-billion television contract signed with the team’s owners in 2013. Charter has bled hundreds of millions of dollars on that arrangement and now offers the channel more widely via a streaming app.

The Atlanta-based Cox is the nation’s third-largest cable company with more than 6.5 million digital cable, internet, telephone and home security customers. Stamford, Conn.-based Charter has more than 32 million customers.

Charter dramatically expanded its Los Angeles presence in 2016 by acquiring Time Warner Cable for more than $60 billion.

The Charter-Cox combination would have 38 million customer homes in the country — a larger footprint than longtime cable leader, Philadelphia’s Comcast Corp.

“This transformational transaction will create an industry leader in mobile and broadband communication services and seamless video entertainment,” Charter Chief Executive Christopher Winfrey said in a conference call with analysts.

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Winfrey would become the proposed entity’s CEO.

A major motivation for the deal was to be able to combine operations in Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties where both services currently operate and add attractive markets like Phoenix, Winfrey told analysts.

“Our network will span approximately 46 states passing nearly 70 million homes and businesses,” Winfrey said.

Cox is privately held. The billionaire Cox family, descendants of an Ohio press baron who bought his first newspaper in 1898, began acquiring cable systems in 1962 and has since held them with a tight grip. The Cox cable assets were long seen as a lucrative target.

Last year, Cox generated $13.1 billion in revenue and $5.4 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

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“Cox was always the first name that would come up in consolidation conversations… and it was always the first name dismissed,” longtime cable analyst Craig Moffett wrote in a Friday research note. “Cox wasn’t for sale.”

Until it was.

In an unexpected twist, the name of the merged company would be changed to Cox within a year of the deal closing. However, its products would carry the Spectrum moniker.

The Cox family would be the largest shareholder, owning about 23% of the combined entity’s outstanding shares.

Charter shares got a slight bump on Friday’s news, climbing nearly 2% to $427.25.

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“Cable is a scale business. [The] added size should help Charter compete better with the larger telcos, tech companies and [Elon Musk’s] Starlink,” said Chris Marangi, co-chief investment officer of value at the New York-based Gabelli Funds, a large media investor.

Adding the Cox homes will allow Charter to expand distribution for its El Segundo-based Spectrum News channel.

Charter said it would absorb Cox’s commercial fiber, information technology and cloud businesses. Cox Enterprises agreed to contribute the residential cable business to Charter Holdings.

Cox Enterprises would be paid $4 billion in cash and receive about $6 billion in convertible preferred units, which could eventually be exchanged into Charter shares. The Cox family would get about 33.6 million common units in the Charter Holdings partnership, worth nearly $12 billion.

The combined entity will absorb Cox’s $12 billion in outstanding debt.

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Charter’s ability to navigate the challenged landscape was a factor in the family’s decision, said Cox Enterprises Chief Executive Alex Taylor, a great-grandson of the company’s founder, told analysts.

“Charter has really impressed us above all others with the way they have spent capital,” Taylor said. “In the last five years, they’ve spent over $50 billion investing” in internet infrastructure and building a wireless phone service.

“This deal starts with mobile,” cable analyst Moffett wrote. “Cox is relatively late to the wireless game. But that only means that the opportunity in [the combined companies’] footprint is that much larger.”

The companies said they could wring about $500 million a year in annual cost savings.

The combined company would have about $111 billion of debt.

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Cox would have two directors on the 13-member board, including Taylor, who would serve as chairman.

Advance/Newhouse would keep its two board members. Advance/Newhouse would hold about 10% of the new company’s shares.

The transaction is expected to close at the same time as Charter’s merger with Liberty Broadband, which was approved by Charter and John Malone’s Liberty Broadband stockholders in February.

After the consolidation, Liberty Broadband will no longer be a direct Charter shareholder.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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