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'Worst ever’ debt crisis puts IDA’s financial model at risk, underscoring need for ambitious donor contributions to IDA21 replenishment – Bretton Woods Project

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'Worst ever’ debt crisis puts IDA’s financial model at risk, underscoring need for ambitious donor contributions to IDA21 replenishment – Bretton Woods Project

The 21st replenishment of the International Development Association’s (IDA21) – the World Bank’s low-income lending arm – due to conclude in December, takes place amid a worsening debt crisis. Even if IDA21 lives up to calls from World Bank President Ajay Banga for record breaking funding, the unfolding debt crisis will likely limit IDA’s ability to provide highly concessional loans and grants to its low-income country (LIC) members.

When an IDA country faces debt difficulties, its loans can be converted to grants, though this support is capped according to unpublished country quotas. From 2020 to 2022, as LICs struggled with the exogenous fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic and their debt situations worsened, the ratio of grants- to- loans in IDA’s portfolio rose from one-fourth to one-third. IDA began converting loans of moderately debt distressed LICs to 50-year credits instead of its usual mix of credits and grants which, according to Clemence Landers and Hannah Brown from US-based think tank Center for Global Development (CGD), should restore grants to a manageable level.

However, according to Development Finance International, the current debt crisis is the ‘worst ever’, with many LICs now paying more on debt servicing than on health, education, social protection and climate combined, meaning this crisis could place significant strain on IDA’s funding model.

The strength (and weakness) of IDA’s funding model: market-based finance

Since its 18th replenishment (2017-19), IDA has issued market debt backed by its equity base, mostly comprised of its outstanding loans (see Observer Winter 2017). This approach has allowed IDA to grow its resources to $185 billion. In IDA20, $23.5 billion of donor contributions were leveraged into a $93 billion replenishment, $33.5 billion in borrowing and $36 billion in reflows via repaid debt from IDA members. As long as grants are less than contributions, IDA does not have to dip into its equity base – but if it does, it could cause a larger contraction in its loan portfolio because its equity is the basis on which it raises market finance.

According to CGD’s calculations, a moderate worsening of LIC debt dynamics would require at least $36 billion in grants over the IDA21 replenishment cycle, requiring an additional $12 billion in contributions compared to IDA20 to avoid dipping into IDA’s equity base. A significant worsening would require at least $45 billion in grants over the replenishment cycle, requiring an additional $22 billion, compared to IDA20. As donor contributions to IDA have fallen by 20 per cent in real terms over the last decade and, as CGD notes, many large donors have signalled that reaching even the level of their contributions for IDA20 may prove difficult, even the moderate debt crisis scenario could significantly affect IDA.

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As debt repayments surge and capital flows turn net-negative, LICs have been forced to rely on IDA for affordable finance, while high-income countries have persistently failed to meet their 0.7 per cent GNP target for Official Development Assistance or agree on a new allocation of SDRs (see Observer Summer 2024).

Quality vs quantity

However, concerns about the size of the IDA21 replenishment should not obscure more fundamental questions of how effective IDA assistance has been: only 17 out of 81 IDA countries have graduated out of IDA eligibility since 1996 (see Observer Spring 2024).

IDA assistance remains linked to highly problematic policies that have a strong pro-liberalisation, deregulation and private sector bias. This has favoured profit extraction by international investors, been linked to the financialisation of Global South economies, and has failed to catalyse economic transformation (see Report, Financialisation, human rights and the Bretton Woods Institutions: An introduction for civil society organisations). This approach looks set to continue in IDA21, with the draft policy package released on 17 June containing numerous references to efforts to crowd in private finance into climate and development efforts.

“IDA is of critical importance for the 39 African states that rely on its financing. But just ensuring it can continue current levels of support is not enough,” noted Jane Nalunga of Ugandan civil society organisation SEATINI. “We need a better IDA, that actively supports their economic transformation, not just keeps them on life support, and to do this we need rich countries to increase their contributions to substantially reduce IDA’s reliance on market finance.”

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Finance

2 Aspira charter high schools to close by April due to financial issues

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2 Aspira charter high schools to close by April due to financial issues

Chicago Public Schools is shutting down two Aspira charter high schools by the middle of the year, following financial issues over the past year. 

School leaders are calling the move “unprecedented.”  

Students at the Aspira Business and Finance High School at 2989 N. Milwaukee Ave. in Avondale held a walkout right outside of Aspira after the CEO said they only have enough money to stay open for the next four to five weeks.

Students wanted their questions answered as to why they’re being transferred to other schools.

Angelina Mota is a senior at the high school and said she is concerned about her future.

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“It’s very difficult, especially for us, hearing that credits might not go all the way with us. That our graduation might just be taken back. It’s very disappointing,” she said.

This is the first time a CPS school will close before the end of the school year. Both Aspira and CPS said the charter network won’t have the funds to stay open past April.

“The burden on our seniors has got to be… they don’t give a damn about the kids. The seniors,” Aspira of Illinois CEO Edgar Lopez said while fighting back his emotions.

The school is facing a $2.9 million deficit, impacting 540 students and dozens of staff.

CPS said they have already given more than $2.5 million to the charter school to help sustain operations. They said under Illinois law, it reached the legal limit of funding it can provide.

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This has been a year-long effort in compliance with state charter school law.

In a statement, CPS said, “Aspira has not submitted required documentation, including evidence of funding to support operations through this school year.”

The documents CPS said are overdue include the school’s fiscal year 25 financial audit, general ledger, and payroll.

“We’re not hiding nothing. The financial documents that they were asking for, Jose told them, we’ll have them to you by Friday. Then they send a letter by Thursday. They didn’t even give us a chance,” Lopez said.

CPS said they’re initiating this due to the lack of financial transparency and solvency.

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“We know we don’t want to go anywhere else because we’re used to the routine we have here,” said student Arichely Molina.

“Please let us (stay) open. at least until we graduate,” Mota said.

CPS said their main goal is to ensure the kids have a safety net as they transition to another school. 

The second school is located at 3986 W. Barry Ave., also in the Avondale neighborhood.

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Why has the UAE closed its stock exchanges?

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Why has the UAE closed its stock exchanges?

The United Arab Emirates has closed its main stock exchanges amid a widening conflict in the region following the United States and Israel’s attacks on Iran.

The UAE’s financial regulator on Sunday announced that its key exchanges in Dubai and Abu Dhabi would not immediately reopen after the weekend break amid the fallout of the US-Israeli attacks that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

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The announcement that the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market would remain closed on Monday and Tuesday came after the UAE was hit with hundreds of Iranian missile and drone attacks, including a strike on Abu Dhabi’s main airport that killed one person and wounded seven others.

The UAE’s Capital Markets Authority said in a statement that it would continue to monitor developments in the region and “assess the situation on an ongoing basis, taking any further measures as necessary”.

Here is all you need to know about the move.

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Why has the UAE decided to shut its main stock exchanges?

The financial regulator did not elaborate on the rationale for its decision, only saying that it was taken in accordance with its “supervisory and regulatory role” in managing the country’s financial markets.

While closing the stock market outside of scheduled breaks is relatively unusual worldwide, especially in the era of electronic trading, it is not unprecedented.

Typically, when financial authorities halt stock trading during a crisis, it is because they are concerned about panic selling.

During periods of extreme volatility, such as wars and financial crises, investors often rush to sell their holdings to avoid suffering big losses.

As investors sell their stocks, the market value falls further.

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This dynamic can spur a vicious cycle that, left unchecked, can lead to a full-blown market crash.

Since the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, stock markets around the world have seen significant – though not catastrophic – losses, while oil prices have risen sharply.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark Tadawul All Share Index fell more than 4 percent on Sunday, while Egypt’s EGX 30 dropped about 2.5 percent.

In Asia, major stock markets closed lower on Monday, with Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index down about 1.4 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively.

The practice of shutting the market to prevent panic selling is controversial among economists and investors.

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Closing the market prevents investors from accessing cash they might need in a hurry.

Critics also argue that such closures only exacerbate the sense of panic they seek to prevent and distort important signals about the market.

“Investors don’t like uncertainty, and at times of market stress, liquidity is most important. It appears the UAE just took that away,” Burdin Hickok, a professor at New York University’s School of Professional Studies, told Al Jazeera.

“This move has the potential of diminishing the status of Dubai as a true major market and weaken investor confidence in the Dubai markets. There has to be some concern about capital flight and negative ripple effects.”

Has this happened before?

The UAE has closed its stock exchanges before, though not due to regional conflict.

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In 2022, the UAE halted trading as part of a period of mourning declared to mark the death of President Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

The emirate announced a similar pause following the death of Dubai’s ruler, Sheikh Maktoum bin Rashid Al Maktoum, in 2006.

“Historically, to the best of my knowledge, no Middle Eastern state, including Israel, has closed its stock exchange during a time of regional conflict,” Hickok said.

“In prior conflicts, Israel has modified hours of their exchange, but we are talking hours, not days.”

Other countries have shuttered their stock markets during periods of major turmoil in recent years.

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After Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, authorities shut the Moscow Exchange for nearly a month.

In 2011, Egypt shut its stock exchange for nearly two months as the country was grappling with the upheaval of the Arab Spring.

After the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq halted trading for six days, the longest suspension since the Great Depression.

How important is the UAE’s stock market?

The UAE is a relatively small player in the world of capital markets, though it has made significant inroads in recent years.

The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market have a combined market capitalisation of about $1.1 trillion.

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By comparison, the New York Stock Exchange, the world’s biggest bourse, has a market capitalisation of about $44 trillion.

Saudi Arabia’s Saudi Exchange, the biggest exchange in the Middle East, is valued at more than $3 trillion.

Still, the UAE’s stature among financial markets has been on the rise.

Before the latest crisis, UAE-listed stocks had been on a winning streak.

The Dubai Financial Market General Index, which includes companies such as Emirates NBD and Emaar Properties, rose more than 29 percent in the 12 months to February 27.

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Haytham Aoun, an assistant professor of finance at the American University in Dubai, said while the UAE could see some outflow of foreign capital, the country’s economy remains on a strong footing.

“A temporary stock market closure will have a limited impact on long-term economic variables, provided the fundamentals remain strong,” Aoun told Al Jazeera.

“In the UAE case, it’s a precautionary intervention, and not a sign of structural weakness.”

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Canton High School students find success in personal finance

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Canton High School students find success in personal finance

CANTON, Miss. (WLBT) – A group of juniors at Canton High School has won back-to-back state championships in Mississippi’s Personal Finance Challenge.

The team’s work can be seen through the school’s reality fair, where students are assigned careers and salaries and must make the same financial decisions adults face each month.

Teena Ruth, a personal finance teacher, said the exercise resonates beyond the classroom.

“It’s an eye-opening experience,” Ruth said. “They kind of see what it’s like for even their parents when they have to make these decisions every day — when they are writing out those checks.”

For student Jalynn Dunigan, the program carries personal significance.

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“To be known for something else outside of cheer and not just what I do on a court, on a field. I can do something and put my brains to it and people can know that I’m not just pretty,” Dunigan said. “I’m smart as well.”

Student Henser Vicente said the team’s success sends a broader message.

“We’re making a statement that we’re not what you think we are,” Vicente said. “Like, we’re greater than what you think. We can do better than what you think we can do.”

A proposed financial literacy bill in Mississippi would require students to pass a semester of personal finance as a graduation requirement.

Alexandria Luckett said the team’s national success is already motivating others at the school.

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“I’m so happy that people are getting more involved in things like this and stepping out of their comfort zone and just putting themselves out there,” Luckett said. “Because I know there’s a lot of shy students [who] don’t necessarily join clubs or anything. So, when they see a group like this going to nationals two times in a row, I feel like that motivates a lot of students.”

Nelly Rosales said competing at the national level has given the team a platform beyond the competition floor.

“We’ve gone to Cleveland, Ohio, we’ve gone to Atlanta, and then hopefully this year we get to go out of state again,” Rosales said. “Being able to be a role model to a lot of children — like especially Hispanic girls who don’t see a lot of role [models] especially in the community — being able to be a role model is a really big thing.”

The students are currently gearing up for this year’s State Personal Finance Challenge set to take place next month.

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