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Harris's proposed unrealized capital gains tax is unlikely to pass: CIO

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Harris's proposed unrealized capital gains tax is unlikely to pass: CIO

Unrealized capital gains tax proposals may be floating back into the zeitgeist as the Harris presidential campaign marches on, but for some, the noise around it is much ado about nothing.

“I don’t think this unrealized thing is going to have much momentum because it is a very onerous process to come up with those numbers,” Raymond James chief investment officer Larry Adam told Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid podcast (see video above or listen here).

“You start putting biases of what you think [something] is worth versus the reality,” said Adam. “That becomes a very difficult equation to really put into a place.”

We’ve seen unrealized capital gains tax proposals before, but they’ve met plenty of resistance.

Most recently, the Biden administration proposed an unrealized capital gains tax for those with a net worth of over $100 million. The proposal could affect more than 10,600 people in the US, according to estimates.

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But, unlike a capital gains tax, which is imposed on a sold item, deploying an unrealized capital gains tax is a trickier move.

Stifel chief Washington strategist Brian Gardner said in a recent client note that under an unrealized capital gains tax system, “ranking illiquid assets would not only be complicated but controversial,” adding that there would also need to be a way to provide taxpayers with “rebates for future losses.”

While analysts scratch their heads about the subject, an unrealized capital gains tax also has plenty of tomato throwers. Donald Trump called it “beyond socialism,” telling a crowd of small-business owners, “You will be forced to sell your restaurant immediately.”

Trump’s onetime US Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, concurred.

“Frankly, I think it’s a ridiculous proposal,” Ross said on Opening Bid.

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Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk also had negative statements to share on the topic, proclaiming an unrealized capital gains tax would lead to “bread lines and ugly shoes.”

While Trump and Musk might deliver their messages to pack a wallop and make voters think, concerns aren’t necessarily unfounded.

Raymond James’s Adam has considered tax proposals made by both candidates, and thinks that regardless of the administration in office, higher taxes could impact households by almost $2,000. “[It] could be a big impact and a drag on the economy,” he said.

Both Harris and Trump face challenges given the expiration of a significant portion of the 2017 tax cuts at the end of 2025. Trump has proposed an additional extension of provisions from 2017 and potentially more tax cuts.

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Harris proposed expanding the child tax credit and supported no increase in the capital gains tax, while taxing those making over $400,000 annually more.

While the presidential race is anyone’s game at this point, Adam isn’t that worried about an unrealized capital gains tax and the potential market losses. “[There’s] a low probability of it passing,” he said. “It’s pretty hard to mark to market every single year for your taxes.”

Three times each week, Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi fields insight-filled conversations and chats with the biggest names in business and markets on Opening Bid. You can find more episodes on our video hub or watch on your preferred streaming service.

In the below Opening Bid episode, former Trump nominee to the Federal Reserve Judy Shelton shares her outlook for the economy.

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Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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Cheers Financial Taps into AI to Build Credit – Los Angeles Business Journal

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Cheers Financial Taps into AI to Build Credit – Los Angeles Business Journal

A credit-building tool fintech founder Ken Lian built out of personal need just got an artificial intelligence-powered upgrade.

Lian and co-founders Zhen Wang and Qingyi Li recently launched Cheers Financial – a startup run out of Pasadena-based Idealab Inc. which combines fast-tracked credit-building with “immigrant-friendly” onboarding.

“Our mission is really to try to make credit fair to individuals who want to have financial freedom in the U.S.,” Lian said.

After coming to the U.S. as an international student from China in 2008, Lian said he struggled for four years to get a bank’s approval for a credit card. Since 2021, the USC alumnus’ fintech ventures have aimed to break down the hurdles immigrants like him often face in accessing and building credit.

Since its launch in November, Cheers Financial has seen “healthy growth,” Lian said, with thousands using its secured personal loan product to build credit through automated monthly payments. At the end of the 24-month loan period, users get their principal back minus about 12.2% interest.

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“The product is designed to automate the entire flow, so users basically can set and forget it,” Lian said.

Cheers, partnering with Minnesota-based Sunrise Banks, boasts an average 21-point increase in credit scores within a couple of months among its users coming in with “fair” scores from the high 500s to mid-600s.

With help from AI data summary and matching, the company reports to the three major credit bureaus every 15 days – two times as frequent as popular credit-building app Kikoff. Lian hopes to shave that down to seven days.

Cheers is far from Lian, Wang and Li’s first step into alternative financial tools. An earlier venture launched in 2021, Cheese Inc., served a similar goal as an online platform providing credit-building loans alongside other services, including a zero-fee debit card with cash back.

Cheese folded when the company it used as its middle layer, Synapse Financial Technologies, collapsed in April 2024 and locked thousands of users out of their savings.

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For Lian and other fintech founders, Synapse’s fall was a wake-up call to the gaps and risks of digital banking’s status quo. As he geared up for Cheers, Lian knew in-house models and a direct company-to-bank relationship were key.

“That allows us to build a very secure and stable platform for our users,” Lian said.

Despite cooling investment in fintech, Cheers nabbed backing from San Francisco-based Better Tomorrow Ventures’ $140 million fintech fund. Automating base-level processes with AI has given the company a chance to operate at a lower cost, Lian said.

“You don’t need to build everything from the ground up,” Lian said. “You can let AI build the basic part, and then you optimize from that.”

Strong demand from high-quality users who spread the word to friends and relatives has helped, too. Some have even started Cheers accounts before arriving in the U.S., Lian said, to get a head start on building credit.

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How The Narrative Around ConocoPhillips (COP) Is Shifting With New Research And Cash Flow Concerns

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How The Narrative Around ConocoPhillips (COP) Is Shifting With New Research And Cash Flow Concerns
ConocoPhillips’ fair value estimate has been adjusted slightly, moving from about US$112.37 to roughly US$111.48, as recent research blends confidence in the company’s execution and balance sheet with more cautious views on crude pricing and near term cash flow. The core discount rate has been held steady at 6.956%, while modest tweaks to revenue growth assumptions, from 1.92% to 1.69%, reflect tempered expectations around demand and realizations that some firms are flagging. Stay tuned to…
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Africa’s climate finance rules are growing, but they’re weakly enforced – new research

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Africa’s climate finance rules are growing, but they’re weakly enforced – new research

Climate change is no longer just about melting ice or hotter summers. It is also a financial problem. Droughts, floods, storms and heatwaves damage crops, factories and infrastructure. At the same time, the global push to cut greenhouse gas emissions creates risks for countries that depend on oil, gas or coal.

These pressures can destabilise entire financial systems, especially in regions already facing economic fragility. Africa is a prime example.

Although the continent contributes less than 5% of global carbon emissions, it is among the most vulnerable. In Mozambique, repeated cyclones have destroyed homes, roads and farms, forcing banks and insurers to absorb heavy losses. Kenya has experienced severe droughts that hurt agriculture, reducing farmers’ ability to repay loans. In north Africa, heatwaves strain electricity grids and increase water scarcity.

These physical risks are compounded by “transition risks”, like declining revenues from fossil fuel exports or higher borrowing costs as investors worry about climate instability. Together, they make climate governance through financial policies both urgent and complex. Without these policies, financial systems risk being caught off guard by climate shocks and the transition away from fossil fuels.

This is where climate-related financial policies come in. They provide the tools for banks, insurers and regulators to manage risks, support investment in greener sectors and strengthen financial stability.

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Regulators and banks across Africa have started to adopt climate-related financial policies. These range from rules that require banks to consider climate risks, to disclosure standards, green lending guidelines, and green bond frameworks. These tools are being tested in several countries. But their scope and enforcement vary widely across the continent.

My research compiles the first continent-wide database of climate-related financial policies in Africa and examines how differences in these policies – and in how binding they are – affect financial stability and the ability to mobilise private investment for green projects.

A new study I conducted reviewed more than two decades of policies (2000–2025) across African countries. It found stark differences.

South Africa has developed the most comprehensive framework, with policies across all categories. Kenya and Morocco are also active, particularly in disclosure and risk-management rules. In contrast, many countries in central and west Africa have introduced only a few voluntary measures.

Why does this matter? Voluntary rules can help raise awareness and encourage change, but on their own they often do not go far enough. Binding measures, on the other hand, tend to create stronger incentives and steadier progress. So far, however, most African climate-related financial policies remain voluntary. This leaves climate risk as something to consider rather than a firm requirement.

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Uneven landscape

In Africa, the 2015 Paris Agreement marked a clear turning point. Around that time, policy activity increased noticeably, suggesting that international agreements and standards could help create momentum and visibility for climate action. The expansion of climate-related financial policies was also shaped by domestic priorities and by pressure from international investors and development partners.

But since the late 2010s, progress has slowed. Limited resources, overlapping institutional responsibilities and fragmented coordination have made it difficult to sustain the earlier pace of reform.

Looking across the continent, four broad patterns have emerged.

A few countries, such as South Africa, have developed comprehensive frameworks. These include:

  • disclosure rules (requirements for banks and companies to report how climate risks affect them)

  • stress tests (simulations of extreme climate or transition scenarios to see whether banks would remain resilient).

Others, including Kenya and Morocco, are steadily expanding their policy mix, even if institutional capacity is still developing.

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Some, such as Nigeria and Egypt, are moderately active, with a focus on disclosure rules and green bonds. (Those are bonds whose proceeds are earmarked to finance environmentally friendly projects such as renewable energy, clean transport or climate-resilient infrastructure.)

Finally, many countries in central and west Africa have introduced only a limited number of measures, often voluntary in nature.

This uneven landscape has important consequences.

The net effect

In fossil fuel-dependent economies such as South Africa, Egypt and Algeria, the shift away from coal, oil and gas could generate significant transition risks. These include:

  • financial instability, for example when asset values in carbon-intensive sectors fall sharply or credit exposures deteriorate

  • stranded assets, where fossil fuel infrastructure and reserves lose their economic value before the end of their expected life because they can no longer be used or are no longer profitable under stricter climate policies.

Addressing these challenges may require policies that combine investment in new, low-carbon sectors with targeted support for affected workers, communities and households.

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Climate finance affects people directly. When droughts lead to loan defaults, local banks are strained. Insurance companies facing repeated payouts after floods may raise premiums. Pension funds invested in fossil fuels risk devaluations as these assets lose value. Climate-related financial policies therefore matter not only for regulators and markets, but also for jobs, savings, and everyday livelihoods.

At the same time, there are opportunities.

Firstly, expanding access to green bonds and sustainability-linked loans can channel private finance into renewable energy, clean transport, or resilient infrastructure.

Secondly, stronger disclosure rules can improve transparency and investor confidence.

Thirdly, regional harmonisation through common reporting standards, for example, would reduce fragmentation. This would make it easier for Africa to attract global climate finance.

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Looking ahead

International forums such as the UN climate conferences (COP) and the G20 have helped to push this agenda forward, mainly by setting expectations rather than hard rules. These initiatives create pressure and guidance. But they remain soft law. Turning them into binding, enforceable rules still depends on decisions taken by national regulators and governments.

International partners such as the African Development Bank and the African Union could support coordination by promoting continental standards that define what counts as a green investment. Donors and multilateral lenders may also provide technical expertise and financial support to countries with weaker systems, helping them move from voluntary guidelines toward more enforceable rules.

South Africa, already a regional leader, could share its experience with stress testing and green finance frameworks.

Africa also has the potential to position itself as a hub for renewable energy and sustainable finance. With vast solar and wind resources, expanding urban centres, and an increasingly digital financial sector, the continent could leapfrog towards a greener future if investment and regulation advance together.

Success stories in Kenya’s sustainable banking practices and Morocco’s renewable energy expansion show that progress is possible when financial systems adapt.

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What happens next will matter greatly. By expanding and enforcing climate-related financial rules, Africa can reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks while unlocking opportunities in green finance and renewable energy.

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