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Analysts: China-Russia financial cooperation raises red flag

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Analysts: China-Russia financial cooperation raises red flag

China and Russia agreed to expand their economic cooperation using a planned banking system, which analysts say is aimed at supporting their militaries and undermining U.S.-led global order.

The two countries issued a joint communiqué agreeing “to strengthen and develop the payment and settlement infrastructure,” including “opening corresponding accounts and establishing branches and subsidiary banks in two countries” to facilitate “smooth” payment in trade.

The communiqué was issued when Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in Moscow on Wednesday, Russian news agency Tass reported the following day.

At the meeting, Mishustin said, “Western countries are imposing illegitimate sanctions under far-fetched pretext, or, to put it simply, engaging in unfair competition,” according to a Russian government transcript.

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Mishustin also noted the use of their national currencies “has also expanded, with the share of roubles and RMB in mutual payments exceeding 95%,” as the two have strengthened cooperation on investment, economy and trade.

Li and Mishustin signed more than a dozen agreements on Tuesday on economic, investment and transport cooperation. Li was making a state visit to Moscow at the invitation of Mishustin.

David Asher, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said, “This meeting between the Russians and the Chinese is important because it’s getting into a much widening aperture of cooperation” that would have “a bigger military dimension,” threatening U.S. national security.

Asher added that their bilateral cooperation could lead to “Russia’s assistance to China in the Pacific and the South China Sea” in return for Beijing’s support for Moscow’s economy and industry that aid Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine, “in defiance of the U.S.”

A spokesperson for the State Department told VOA Korean on Thursday that the U.S. is “concerned about PRC [People’s Republic of China] support for rebuilding Russia’s defense industrial base, particularly the provision of dual-use goods like tools, microelectronics and other equipment.”

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The spokesperson continued: “The PRC cannot claim to be a neutral party while at the same time rebuilding Russia’s defense industrial base and contributing to the greatest threat to European security.”

“China is Putin’s only lifeline,” said Edward Fishman, an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs who helped the State Department design international sanctions in response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.

In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia’s Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, right, shakes hands with Premier of the State Council of China Li Qiang as they meet in Moscow on Aug. 21, 2024.

“Chinese firms have taken advantage of Russia’s weak bargaining position and cut a slew of favorable deals,” Fishman said. “But these deals have more than just commercial significance. They keep Putin’s war machine going.”

The U.S. Treasury Department on Friday imposed sanctions on more than 400 entities and individuals that support Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine, including Chinese firms that it said were helping Moscow evade Western sanctions by shipping machine tools and microelectronics.

In response to a China-Russia plan to set up a financial system to facilitate trade, U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo told the Financial Times that Washington “will go after the branch they’re setting up” and the countries that let them.

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Analysts said China and Russia could increasingly turn to alternative methods of payments to evade sanctions.

Russia in June suspended trading in dollars and euros in the Moscow Exchange, in response to a round of sanctions the U.S. had issued targeting Russia’s largest stock exchange. The move by Russia prohibits banks, companies and investors from trading in either currency through a central exchange.

Shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine, the U.S. cut big Russian banks off from the U.S. dollar, the preferred currency in global business transactions.

“There is clearly a desire in both Moscow and Beijing to build financial and trade connections that operate beyond the reach of U.S.-led sanctions,” said Tom Keatinge, director of the Center for Finance and Security at the London-based Royal United Service Institute.

“This includes the development of non-U.S. dollar payment and settlement mechanisms and a wider ‘insulated’ payment system that allows other countries in their orbit to avoid U.S. sanctions,” he continued.

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Other possible methods of payments could involve central bank digital currencies as well as cryptocurrencies and stable coins, Keatinge added.

The Chinese yuan replaced the dollar as Russia’s most traded currency in 2023, when the U.S. imposed sanctions on a few banks in Russia that could still trade across the border in dollars, according to Maia Nikoladze, an associate director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center, in a June report.

Nikoladze told VOA that transactions made in renminbi and in rubles allowed Moscow to mitigate the effects of sanctions until Washington in December 2023 created an authority to apply secondary sanctions on foreign banks that transacted with Russian entities.

“Since then, Russia has struggled to collect oil payments from China,” with some transactions delayed “up to six months,” even as Moscow found a way to process transactions through Russian bank branches in China, Nikoladze said.

According to an article this month from Newsweek, the Russian newspaper Izvestia reported that as many as 98% of Chinese banks are refusing Chinese yuan payments from Russia.

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Hudson Institute’s Asher said even more critical than the Russian use of yuan is the use of U.S. dollars in Beijing-Moscow transactions through the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s Clearinghouse Automated Transfer Settlement System (CHATS), a payment system used by banks such as HSBC that trade “hundreds of billions of dollars a year.”

“It can settle transactions in a way that is not visible to the U.S. government,” Asher said. “I’m talking about U.S. dollar reserves that are not in the United States, that are not controlled by the U.S. government, that we don’t have good visibility on, and Hong Kong is providing that financial service.”

The Hong Kong government has said it does not implement unilateral sanctions but enforces U.N. sanctions at the urging of China, according to Reuters.

William Pomeranz, an expert on Russian political and economic developments at the Wilson Center, said that despite Beijing’s and Moscow’s talk this week about financial and economic cooperation, “China does not want to get onto the bad side of European and American markets” and will not risk its economic ties with the West “just to help Russia in a problem that, quite frankly, is of Russia’s own making.”

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Should investors have bought gold or the S&P 500 5 years ago?

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Should investors have bought gold or the S&P 500 5 years ago?
Image source: Getty Images

Remember 2020/21, when Covid-19 crashed stock markets? At their 2020 lows, the UK FTSE 100 and US S&P 500 indexes had collapsed by 35%. Nevertheless, 2020/21 was a great time to buy shares, because returns have been outstanding since.

But would I done better five years ago buying the S&P 500 or investing in gold, one of the world’s oldest stores of value?

Over the past five years, the S&P 500 has leapt by 70.4%. However, this capital gain excludes cash dividends — regular cash returns paid by some companies to shareholders.

Adding dividends, the S&P 500’s return jumps to 81.8%, turning $10,000 into $10,818. That works out at a compound yearly growth rate of 12.7%.

Then again, as a British investor, I buy US assets using pounds sterling. The US index’s return in GBP terms over five years is 13.6% a year. This equates to a five-year total return of 89.2% — still a handsome result for UK buyers of US shares.

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For many, gold is the ideal asset in times of trouble. First, it has several uses: as a store of value (often in bank vaults), for jewellery, and as an excellent conductor of electricity in electronics. Second, it is scarce: all the gold ever mined would fit into a cube with sides of under 23m.

As I write, the gold price stands at £3,484.50. This is up an impressive 178.5% over the past five years. That works out at a compound yearly growth rate of 22.7% a year — thrashing the S&P 500’s returns.

Of course, gold pays no income, but these bumper returns can more than make up for this omission. Then again, with the S&P 500 worth around $60trn, its gains have been enjoyed by a much larger cohort of investors

Thus, over the past five years, investors have made more money owning gold than investing in the S&P 500. And speaking of high-performing investments, here’s another hidden gem from spring 2021…

As an older investor (I turned 58 this month), my family portfolio is packed with boring, old-school FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 shares that pay generous dividends.

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For example, my family owns shares in Lloyds Banking Group (LSE: LLOY), whose stock has soared since 2021. As I write, Lloyds shares trade at 96.68p, valuing the Black Horse bank at £56.7bn.

Over one year, the shares are up 37.8%, easily beating major market indexes. Over five years, this stock has soared by 135.6% — comfortably beating most UK and US shares over this timescale.

Again, the above returns exclude dividends, which Lloyds stock pays out generously. Right now, its dividend yield is 3.8% a year, beating the wider FTSE 100’s yearly cash yield of 3.1%.

Earlier this year, Lloyds shares were riding high, peaking at 114.6p on 4 February. They have since fallen by 15.6%, driven down by the US-Iran war, soaring energy prices, and fears of an economic slowdown. Of course, if the UK endures another recession, banking revenues, profits, and cash flow could take a nasty hit.

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That said, sticky, above-target inflation hinders the Bank of England from cutting interest rates. This boosts Lloyds’ net interest margin, boosting its 2026 earnings. And that’s why we will keep holding tightly onto our Lloyds shares!

The post Should investors have bought gold or the S&P 500 5 years ago? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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The Motley Fool UK has recommended Lloyds Banking Group. Cliff D’Arcy has an economic interest in Lloyds Banking Group shares. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services, such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool, we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Motley Fool UK 2026

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4 Smart Ways to Use Your Tax Return for Financial Planning

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4 Smart Ways to Use Your Tax Return for Financial Planning

(Image credit: Getty Images)

In my work helping people think through retirement planning decisions, I often see people focus heavily on preparing their tax return but spend very little time reviewing it afterward.

By the time tax season ends, most people treat the document like a receipt: They file it, save a copy somewhere and move on.

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The CFO who turned Adobe’s finance department into an AI lab | Fortune

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The CFO who turned Adobe’s finance department into an AI lab | Fortune

Finance chief Dan Durn is turning Adobe’s finance organization into an early proving ground for agentic AI—using autonomous software agents to forecast results, scan contracts, and even answer hundreds of thousands of emails.

The push mirrors Adobe’s broader strategy around agentic AI. For customers, the company lets them choose models, combine them with their own data and Adobe’s, and point agents at specific business outcomes.

Internally, Durn, who is also in charge of technology, security and operations, has taken a similar approach to finance: pairing a rules-based, data-heavy function with AI, within a structure where finance, IT, and security report to one leader so pilots can move to production quickly. “Accuracy is non-negotiable,” he adds; that’s why Adobe is investing in structured data and governance so it can move fast without sacrificing precision, he says. 

The rise of AI is rapidly reshaping corporate leadership, accelerating turnover and elevating executives who can deliver fast, tangible results. Even long-tenured leaders face increasing pressure from investors to move aggressively on AI. Recent leadership changes, including the announced retirement of Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen, highlight how little patience markets now have for perceived hesitation. At the same time, Adobe reported that annualized revenue from its AI-first products more than tripled year over year in its first quarter of fiscal 2026, which ended Feb. 27. Across Fortune 500 companies, this dynamic is creating a new internal proving ground where executives are judged by how effectively, and how quickly, they deploy AI to drive growth, efficiency, and innovation.

Using AI in finance

Inside finance, Durn groups AI use into three buckets: forecasting, anomaly detection, and general productivity.

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For forecasting, AI uncovers patterns and signals in data that would be difficult for humans to detect quickly, he explains. Anomaly-detection agents flag performance that’s unexpectedly strong or weak—“things that can get lost in the sea of data”—so finance can intervene faster, he says.

However, Durn says the best examples now sit in productivity, citing three use cases:

1. Extracting information from PDFs

One of the most developed use cases involves “containers” of information—collections of PDFs such as investor transcripts, quarterly reports, and analyst research. Finance teams use Adobe’s PDF Spaces to load documents into a shared digital workspace and use an agentic AI assistant to surface themes, insights, and messaging cues in minutes rather than hours.

A recent Forrester TEI study found Acrobat’s agentic AI Assistant increases efficiencies in document summarization and analysis by 45%. Durn says that matters because “the world’s information lives in PDF,” and AI that turns static content into insights that can be used.

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2. Cutting contract review time in half

Adobe is also using agentic AI to overhaul contract reviews across finance and procurement functions including revenue assurance, contract operations, product fulfillment, and vendor management. Instead of finance professionals combing through every clause, an AI assistant scans thousands of contracts, highlights provisions relevant to each function, and flags non-standard terms.

The system has cut review time roughly in half, speeding individual reviews and allowing teams to query the entire contract repository—for example, identifying which contracts include auto-cancellation features or foreign-exchange adjustment windows, Durn says. Adobe built its first prototype by April 2024 and began onboarding teams in January 2025.

3. Automating “common” inboxes

A third area is the “common inboxes” that handle high-volume internal and external email—shared addresses for sales, treasury, finance, and supplier questions. Adobe deployed an agentic AI assistant that auto-tags, prioritizes, routes, and, when criteria are met, auto-responds to emails. Typical queries include supplier billing issues or standard credit-quality questions coming into the treasury from Salesforce.

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“In 2025 alone, the system auto-responded to about 300,000 emails across 19 inboxes, saving more than 5,000 hours of manual work and freeing teams to focus on more complex issues,” he says. The tool took about six months to build; beta teams began using it around August 2024, with full rollout in January 2025.

The payoff, he stresses, isn’t headcount cuts but the ability to scale more efficiently as Adobe grows.

Grassroots ideas, decade-long build

Durn traces these finance use cases to Adobe’s long AI journey and a bottom-up idea pipeline. The company has invested in machine learning and AI for more than a decade, initially to understand customer usage patterns and embed intelligence into products—work that laid the groundwork for generative and agentic AI.

Many of the best applications come from “reaching down into the organization” and asking employees where AI could remove friction or make their jobs easier, he says. There are more ideas than capacity, so the team prioritizes those with the greatest impact.

When deciding whether to green-light AI investments, Durn focuses on organizational velocity—the ability of back-office functions to keep pace with faster product innovation. If finance doesn’t adopt AI, he argues, it risks becoming a “rate limiter of growth.”

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The actual spend is modest, he adds; much of the work involves change management and process redesign layered onto Adobe’s technology.

Durn’s perspective on change management coincides with new research from McKinsey. To capture the full value of AI, organizations need to go beyond “a piecemeal approach and push for a double transformation—both technical and organizational—that includes reimagining how work gets done across functions and workflows,” according to the report. While 88% of organizations surveyed are now experimenting with AI, fewer than 20% report tangible bottom-line results,, the research finds.

How AI is changing his own job

For his own workflow, Durn relies on AI primarily for insight generation. Ahead of earnings, his team loads pre-earnings research reports, Adobe filings, and peer transcripts into an AI-powered workspace to surface themes and likely investor questions.

Scripts and Q&A preparation are then run through models with guardrails to test whether messaging addresses those themes and to ask, “If I were an investor, what are my key takeaways?”

He sees it as a useful check on clarity and consistency—using AI to validate instincts and sharpen how Adobe communicates with the market.

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