Health
Death Toll in Gaza Likely 40 Percent Higher Than Reported, Researchers Say
Deaths from bombs and other traumatic injuries during the first nine months of the war in Gaza may have been underestimated by more than 40 percent, according to a new analysis published in The Lancet.
The peer-reviewed statistical analysis, led by epidemiologists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, used modeling in an effort to provide an objective third-party estimate of casualties. The United Nations has relied on the figure from the Hamas-led Ministry of Health, which it says has been largely accurate, but which Israel criticizes as inflated.
But the new analysis suggests the Hamas health ministry tally is a significant undercount. The researchers concluded that the death toll from Israel’s aerial bombardment and military ground operation in Gaza between October 2023 and the end of June 2024 was about 64,300, rather than the 37,900 reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health.
The estimate in the analysis corresponds to 2.9 percent of Gaza’s prewar population having been killed by traumatic injury, or one in 35 inhabitants. The analysis did not account for other war-related casualties such as deaths from malnutrition, water-borne illness or the breakdown of the health system as the conflict progressed.
The study found that 59 percent of the dead were women, children and people over the age of 65. It did not establish what share of the reported dead were combatants.
Mike Spagat, an expert on calculating casualties of war who was not involved in this research, said the new analysis convinced him that Gaza casualties were underestimated.
“This is a good piece of evidence that the real number is higher, probably substantially higher, than the Ministry of Health’s official numbers, higher than I had been thinking over the last few months,” said Dr. Spagat, who is a professor at Royal Holloway College at the University of London.
But the presentation of precise figures, such as a 41 percent underreported mortality, is less useful, he said, since the analysis actually shows the real total could be less than, or substantially more. “Quantitatively, it’s a lot more uncertain than I think comes out in the paper,” Dr. Spagat said.
The researchers said their estimate of 64,260 deaths from traumatic injury has a “confidence interval” between 55,298 and 78,525, which means the actual number of casualties is likely in that range.
If the estimated level of underreporting of deaths through June 2024 is extrapolated out to October 2024, the total Gazan casualty figure in the first year of the war would exceed 70,000.
“There is an importance to war injury deaths, because it speaks to the question of whether the campaign is proportional, whether it is, in fact, the case that sufficient provisions are made to to avoid civilian casualties,” said Francesco Checchi, an epidemiologist with an expertise in conflict and humanitarian crises and a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who was an author on the study. “I do think memorializing is important. There is inherent value in just trying to come up with the right number.”
The analysis uses a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis, which has been used to estimate casualties in other conflicts, including civil wars in Colombia and Sudan.
For Gaza, the researchers drew on three lists: The first is a register maintained by the Palestinian Ministry of Health, which mainly comprises the dead in hospital morgues and estimates of the number of unrecovered people buried in rubble. The second is deaths reported by family or community members through an online survey form the ministry established on Jan. 1, 2024, when the prewar death registration system had broken down. It asked Palestinians inside and outside Gaza to provide names, ages, national ID number and location of death for casualties. The third source was obituaries of people who died from injuries that were published on social media, which may not include all of the same biographical details and which the researchers compiled by hand.
The researchers analyzed these sources to look for individuals who appear on multiple lists of those killed. A high level of overlap would have suggested that few deaths were uncounted; the low amount they found suggested the opposite. The researchers used models to calculate the probability of each individual appearing on any of the three lists.
“Models enable us to actually estimate the number of people who have not been listed at all,” Dr. Checchi said. That, combined with the listed number, gave the analysts their total.
Patrick Ball, director of research at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, and a statistician who has conducted similar estimates of violent deaths in conflicts in other regions, said the study was strong and well reasoned. But he cautioned that the authors may have underestimated the amount of uncertainty caused by the ongoing conflict.
The authors used different variations of mathematical models in their calculations, but Dr. Ball said that rather than presenting a single figure — 64,260 deaths — as the estimate, it may have been more appropriate to present the number of deaths as a range from 47,457 to 88,332 deaths, a span that encompasses all of the estimates produced by modeling the overlap among the three lists.
“It’s really hard to do this kind of thing in the middle of a conflict,” Dr. Ball said. “It takes time, and it takes access. I think you could say the range is larger, and that would be plausible.”
While Gaza had a strong death registration process before the war, it now has only limited function after the destruction of much of the health system. Deaths are uncounted when whole families are killed simultaneously, leaving no one to report, or when an unknown number of people die in the collapse of a large building; Gazans are increasingly buried near their homes without passing through a morgue, Dr. Checchi said.
The authors of the study acknowledged that some of those assumed dead may in fact be missing, most likely taken as prisoners in Israel.
Roni Caryn Rabin and Lauren Leatherby contributed reporting.
Health
Seniors over 80 who eat specific diet may be less likely to reach 100 years old
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Older adults who avoid meat in their golden years may be less likely to reach age 100 than their meat-eating counterparts, new research suggests.
Researchers tracked more than 5,000 adults aged 80 or older who were enrolled in the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey.
Between 1998 and 2018, data showed that those who did not eat meat were less likely to reach their 100th birthday than those who consumed animal products regularly.
The findings seem to contradict previous studies that have linked vegetarianism and plant-based diets to lower risks of heart disease, stroke, diabetes and obesity.
Most evidence supporting the benefits of plant-based diets comes from studies tracking younger populations, the researchers noted.
The findings contrast with previous research praising plant-based diets for their positive influence on heart health. (iStock)
The study, published in The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, points to losses in muscle mass and bone density with age, shifts that can increase the risk of malnutrition and frailty in the “oldest old.”
As people enter their 80s and 90s, the nutritional priority often shifts from preventing long-term chronic diseases to maintaining day-to-day physical function, experts say.
HOW MUCH RED MEAT IS TOO MUCH? EXPERTS WEIGH IN ON FOOD PYRAMID UPDATES
“The headline ‘vegetarians over 80 less likely to reach 100’ sounds surprising, because it contrasts with decades of data linking plant‑forward diets to lower chronic disease risk earlier in life,” Erin Palinski-Wade, a New Jersey-based registered dietitian, told Fox News Digital.
“However, once you see that this research is limited to adults over the age of 80 who are also underweight — and that this link disappears with the consumption of eggs, dairy and fish — the results are less surprising.”
While diets earlier in life tend to emphasize avoiding long-term disease, older age necessitates nutrients and weight maintenance, experts say. (iStock)
In those over 80, restricting animal proteins may be less likely to promote longevity, according to Palinski-Wade, who was not involved in the study.
Eliminating all animal protein — particularly in a population that may already experience diminished hunger cues — can make it more difficult to meet adequate protein needs, potentially increasing the risk of nutrient deficiencies, the nutritionist said.
ALZHEIMER’S SYMPTOMS COULD BE PREDICTED YEARS IN ADVANCE THROUGH ONE SIMPLE TEST
In addition to a higher tendency to be underweight, older populations also face a greater risk of bone fractures due to lower calcium and protein intake.
Potential limitations
The lower rate of vegetarians reaching 100 was only observed in participants identified as underweight, the researchers noted. No such association was found in people who maintained a healthy weight.
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Because being underweight is already linked to greater frailty and mortality risk, the researchers noted that body weight may partly explain the findings, making it difficult to determine whether diet itself played a direct role.
Those incorporating animal-sourced products other than meat were just as likely to live to 100. (iStock)
Additionally, the shortened lifespans were not found in people who continued to eat non-meat animal products, such as fish, dairy and eggs.
Older adults with these more flexible diets were just as likely to live to 100 as those eating meat, as these foods may provide the nutrients necessary for maintaining muscle and bone health, the researchers noted.
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“This is an observational study, so it can only show associations, and does not prove that avoiding meat directly reduces the odds of reaching 100,” Palinski-Wade added.
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The researchers suggested that including small amounts of animal-sourced foods could help older seniors maintain essential nutrients and avoid the muscle loss often seen in those who stick strictly to plants.
Eliminating all animal protein — particularly in a population that may already experience diminished hunger cues — can make it more difficult to meet adequate protein needs, potentially increasing the risk of nutrient deficiencies. (iStock)
Palinski-Wade offered some guidance for those looking to optimize nutrition later in life.
“For adults in their 80s and beyond, especially anyone losing weight or muscle, the priority should be maintaining a healthy weight and meeting protein and micronutrient needs — even if that means adding or increasing fish, eggs, dairy or well‑planned, fortified plant proteins and supplements.”
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Strict vegan or very low‑protein patterns at that age should be carefully monitored by a dietitian or clinician, with attention to B12, vitamin D, calcium and total protein, according to Palinski-Wade.
“Younger and healthier adults can still confidently use plant‑forward or vegetarian patterns to lower long‑term chronic disease risk,” she added.
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Health
Punch the monkey, viral star, experiences dramatic breakthrough among zoo mates
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In a dramatic turn of events that’s captured the attention of animal lovers worldwide, Punch — the young macaque at a zoo in Japan famous for his inseparable bond with a stuffed orangutan toy — has reached a major milestone in his journey toward social integration.
On Thursday, visitors and staff at the Ichikawa Zoological and Botanical Garden witnessed a breakthrough: Punch was seen cuddling with and hitching a ride on the back of a fellow macaque.
Punch’s story began with hardship. He was abandoned by his mother shortly after his birth in July 2025 — and to ensure his survival, zookeepers stepped in to hand-rear the primate.
On Jan. 19, 2026, the zoo officially began the process of reintegrating Punch into the “monkey mountain” enclosure.
The transition was initially fraught with tension.
Punch’s story began with hardship when he was abandoned by his mother shortly after he was born. To help him, zookeepers gave him a stuffed toy that he began dragging around everywhere he went. (David Mareuil/Anadolu via Getty Images)
As a hand-reared infant, Punch was bullied and ignored by the established group of monkeys.
He was often seen huddled alone with his orange plush companion while the rest of the troop interacted.
BABY MONKEY CARRIES FAITHFUL STUFFED COMPANION EVERYWHERE HE GOES, DRAWING CROWDS AT ZOO
In an official statement released Feb. 27, the Ichikawa Zoological and Botanical Garden detailed the meticulous care behind this process.
Previous viral videos showed Punch bullied by the rest of the troop, running to his plushy toy for comfort. (David Mareuil/Anadolu via Getty Images)
“From an animal welfare perspective, our primary goal is to reintegrate Punch with the troop,” the zoo said.
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The strategy involved nursing Punch within the enclosure, so the troop could recognize him as one of their own, and pairing him with a gentle young female macaque prior to his full release to build his confidence.
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The latest footage, captured by X user @tate_gf, suggested the zoo’s patience is paying off.
The video shows Punch seeking physical contact not from his toy, but from another monkey — eventually climbing onto its back for a vital social behavior for young macaques: the “piggyback ride.”
The zoo’s strategy appears to be paying off: Punch, shown at far left, was recently seen riding on the back of a fellow macaque. (David Mareuil/Anadolu via Getty Images)
While Punch still carries his stuffed toy for comfort during moments of perceived danger, the zoo remains optimistic about his progress.
The organization cited the successful 2009 case of Otome, another hand-reared macaque who eventually outgrew her stuffed toy, successfully integrated — and went on to raise four offspring of her own.
The zoo has had crowds coming to see Punch, with hundreds of people lining up to get inside to see the young star, according to reports.
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“I’m hoping Punch has a good life like everybody else does, and think he’s a cute little guy,” one person commented online.
“Such a precious baby,” another person wrote.
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