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Japan issues first-ever 'megaquake' advisory, leaving citizens scared, confused
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- Japan issued its first “megaquake advisory” last week after a magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck off its coast.
- The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) concluded that the strong quake increased the likelihood of another big one with potentially devastating consequences.
- In 2013, a government disaster prevention team said a magnitude 9.1 quake could generate a tsunami exceeding 33 feet within minutes, killing as many as 323,000 people and destroying more than 2 million buildings on Japan’s Pacific coast.
Japan, one of the most earthquake-prone nations on earth, issued its first-ever “megaquake advisory” last week after a powerful quake struck off the southeastern coast of the southern main island of Kyushu.
The magnitude 7.1 quake caused no deaths or severe damage but the advisory has led to widespread confusion and a lingering sense of worry — in a country well accustomed to regular quakes — about when the next big one will hit.
The Associated Press explains what the advisory means, what people are being told to do, and what could happen if a massive quake hits Japan.
7.1 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE STRIKES OFF JAPAN’S COAST, TSUNAMI ADVISORY ISSUED
What is a megaquake advisory?
The Japan Meteorological Agency issued the advisory after concluding that the magnitude 7.1 quake that struck on Aug. 8 on the western edge of the Nankai Trough increased the likelihood of another big one.
There is a 70-80% chance of a magnitude 8 or 9 quake associated with the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years, and the probability is now “higher than normal” after the latest quake, the JMA says.
But that is not a prediction that a megaquake will happen at any specific time or location, says University of Tokyo seismologist Naoshi Hirata, who heads the JMA’s experts panel. He urged people to remain cautious and prepared.
Stone lanterns fall at a shrine following a strong earthquake in Nichinan, Miyazaki prefecture, southern Japan, on Aug. 9, 2024. (Kyodo News via AP)
What is the Nankai Trough?
The Nankai Trough is an undersea trench that runs from Hyuganada, in the waters just off the southeastern coast of Kyushu, to Suruga Bay in central Japan. It spans about 500 miles along the Pacific coast.
The Philippine Sea Plate there slowly pulls down on the Eurasian Plate and causes it to occasionally snap back, an action that could lead to a megaquake and tsunami, JMA says.
The last Nankai Trough quake off Shikoku in 1946 recorded a preliminary magnitude of 8.0 and killed more than 1,300 people.
How damaging can a megaquake be?
In 2013, a government disaster prevention team said a magnitude 9.1 Nankai Trough quake could generate a tsunami exceeding 33 feet within minutes, killing as many as 323,000 people, destroying more than 2 million buildings and causing economic damage of more than $1.5 trillion to large swaths of Japan’s Pacific coast.
What is the government doing to prepare?
As a result of the “megaquake advisory,” Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida canceled his planned Aug. 9-12 trip to Central Asia and announced he would lead the government response and ensure preventive measures and communication with the public.
The Fire and Disaster Management Agency instructed 707 municipalities seen as at risk from a Nankai Trough quake to review their response measures and evacuation plans.
Experts and officials have urged people to stay calm and carry on their daily social and economic activities while also securing emergency food and water and discussing evacuation plans with family members.
In a reassuring note on Monday, JMA experts said they have so far found no abnormal seismic or tectonic activity that would indicate a megaquake.
How are people reacting?
The “megaquake advisory,” which is filled with scientific jargon, has worried and baffled people across the country. Some towns closed beaches and canceled annual events, which has led to challenges for travelers during Japan’s Obon holiday week, a time for festivals and fireworks across the nation.
Many people have put off planned trips and rushed to stock up on rice, dried noodles, canned food, bottled water, portable toilets and other emergency goods, leaving shelves empty at many supermarkets in western Japan and Tokyo, even though the capital is outside the at-risk area.
The Summit supermarket chain said microwavable rice is in short supply and the store is limiting purchases to one pack per customer.
Yoshiko Kudo and her husband Shinya said they had trouble understanding what exactly the advisory meant, how worried they should be and what they should do.
“We are trying not to go overboard. Too much worry is not good,” Yoshiko Kudo said.
“We don’t know how to be prepared and to still live normally like the experts tell us,” said Shinya Kudo, a caregiver in his 60s.
Yoneko Oshima, walking by a major train station in Tokyo, said: “It’s scary … They say there’s a (70-80%) chance in the next 30 years, but it could be tomorrow.” Her latest purchase is a portable toilet. She says water is indispensable for her diabetic husband, who needs to take medicine after every meal.
“I plan to take this opportunity to make a list and make sure we have everything at hand,” Oshima said. She hasn’t changed her holiday plans this week, but her daughter canceled a planned trip to Mount Fuji.
In Matsuyama city on the island of Shikoku, which has many hot springs, hotels and resorts reviewed their evacuation procedures and emergency equipment and launched a radio communication system for emergency use. They have received hundreds of cancelations since the advisory was issued, said Hideki Ochi, director of the Dogo Onsen Ryokan Association.
Rail companies serving the region said their trains are operating at slightly reduced speeds as a precaution.
A crisis management task force in the coastal town of Kuroshio in Kochi prefecture, where a tsunami as high as 111 feet was predicted in the government risk analysis, initially set up 30 shelters across town. But only two are still open following Monday’s JMA statement that there has been no indication of an impending megaquake.
Higashi Osaka urged residents on the town website not to engage in “unnecessary and non-urgent” travel in case of a major quake.
The popular seaside town of Shirahama in Wakayama prefecture said its four outdoor hot springs, parks and other facilities would be closed for a week. Saturday’s annual fireworks festival was also canceled.
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Sudan army absent as talks aimed at ending civil war begin in Switzerland
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Army leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s about-face on joining talks dampens hopes they will lead to the end of 16-month war.
A new round of talks aimed at ending a 16-month civil war in Sudan that has sparked a humanitarian crisis in the Northeast African country has begun in Switzerland despite the army’s absence.
Army leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s reversal on joining the United States-led negotiations dampened hopes that Wednesday’s proceedings would lead to a breakthrough with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo.
The two sides have been fighting in a bloody civil war since April last year.
“The talks have started,” a spokesman for the US mission in Geneva told the AFP news agency, adding that there was “no change” to the nonparticipation of the Sudanese army.
Al-Burhan has struck a defiant tone after the military said the general survived a drone attack on a military celebration in eastern Sudan last month.
He continued that course on Tuesday, saying, “Military operations will not stop without the withdrawal of every last militiaman from the cities and villages they have plundered and colonised.”
The Sudanese army has repeatedly accused the RSF of failing to adhere to commitments to pull combatants out of civilian areas and facilitate aid deliveries. Those were part of an agreement reached in direct talks last year in Saudi Arabia, which resulted in a brief pause in the fighting.
Mediators have said both sides have violated the terms of the agreement.
For its part, the RSF has repeatedly denied it has committed abuses against civilians or looting despite continuing its heavy bombardment of the cities of Omdurman, el-Obeid and el-Fasher. It has sent a delegation to the negotiations in Switzerland and said it was open to a new peace deal if the army engages in talks.
Also in attendance in Geneva on Wednesday were representatives from Egypt, the United Nations, the African Union, the East African body IGAD (the Intergovernmental Authority on Development) and the United Arab Emirates, which has repeatedly denied allegations it is providing weapons and other military support to the RSF.
‘Cataclysmic breaking point’
Al-Burhan and Hemedti had tenuously shared power after the 2021 toppling of President Omar al-Bashir. However, tensions over plans to integrate their two forces exploded last year into full-scale war.
Fighting initially began in the capital, Khartoum, and the RSF eventually seized most of the Darfur region and Gezira state. The army-led government has since rebased in Port Sudan on the east coast.
Both sides have been accused of committing abuses, including targeting civilians, indiscriminately shelling residential areas and hampering aid deliveries.
The UN said the conflict has killed tens of thousands of people and internally displaced more than 10.7 million. Another 2.3 million refugees have fled the country, according to the International Organization of Migration.
This week, UN officials warned that Sudan is at a “cataclysmic breaking point” as they predicted tens of thousands of preventable deaths from hunger, disease, floods and violence in the coming months if the fighting does not end.
World
Edmunds: The pros and cons of buying a hybrid vehicle or plug-in hybrid
If you’re ready to move on from a purely gasoline-fueled vehicle but you’re not ready to go fully electric, you have two choices. You can get a hybrid or a plug-in hybrid vehicle. But which one is best? The experts at Edmunds will help you decide.
Hybrid Pros and Cons
A hybrid electric vehicle has a gasoline engine, a small electric motor, and a small battery pack that work together to improve fuel economy, enhance performance, or both. The best-known hybrid is the Toyota Prius, but they come in all shapes and sizes. From compact cars to full-size pickup trucks, there is a hybrid for just about anyone.
Pros
Improves fuel economy while reducing emissions
Sometimes improves acceleration and overall performance
Often provides electric-only driving at low speeds for short distances
Usually doesn’t reduce passenger or cargo space
Never needs to be plugged in
Small increase in price, if any
Reduced fueling costs
Cons
Cannot travel long distances solely on electricity
Cannot travel at higher speeds only on electricity
Overall, a hybrid electric vehicle is a great choice for anyone who wants better fuel economy, reduced emissions, and lower operating costs without any extra hassle or change in their daily routine. Hybrids are more commonly available than ever, and some automakers are rolling out new models only with hybrid powertrains. For example, every version of the 2025 Toyota Camry is a hybrid, and Honda offers certain versions of the Accord, Civic and CR-V only with hybrid power. Hybrid versions of many other popular models, such as the Kia Sportage and Hyundai Tucson SUVs, are also available.
Plug-in Hybrid Pros and Cons
A plug-in hybrid vehicle, often abbreviated as PHEV, is a hybrid that offers electric-only driving for a short range and can then be plugged in to recharge. They have a gasoline engine like a hybrid does, but thanks to a larger and more powerful electric motor and battery pack, they can travel at a wider range of speeds in electric mode, for many miles at a time. When the battery charge gets low, the gas engine turns on to continue the trip. You can recharge a plug-in hybrid using a household electrical outlet or a home or public charging station.
Pros
Electric-only driving for commuting, taking the kids to school, running errands, etc.
Gas-only driving for longer trips
Can charge the battery overnight using a household-style outlet or in a few hours using a more powerful charging station
The gas engine automatically takes over to power the vehicle when the battery charge is low
Can dramatically improve fuel economy, acceleration, and overall performance while reducing operating costs
Certain models may qualify for a federal tax credit of up to $7,500
May qualify for carpool lane access in certain states with only a driver aboard
Cons
A plug-in typically costs substantially more than a hybrid or gas-only vehicle
Plugging in each night can seem like a hassle
The larger electric motor and battery may reduce passenger or cargo space
The added weight of plug-in hybrid components can negatively affect the ride and handling
If you don’t make a habit of plugging in, it may be less efficient than a hybrid
Plug-in hybrids are perfect for people who want an electric vehicle but worry about driving range, public EV charging infrastructure, and the costs of installing a home charging station. They’re easy to recharge overnight, usually offer enough electric range for typical daily driving, and have a gas engine that eliminates the range anxiety common with driving an EV.
For example, you can drive a plug-in hybrid from Manhattan to Santa Monica and never plug it in. Or when you’re not taking a longer trip, you can plug a plug-in hybrid in every night and hardly burn any gas in everyday driving, especially if you choose a model with a generous electric-only range.
In short, a plug-in hybrid represents the best of both worlds, a perfect bridge from the gasoline past to the electric future. Examples of plug-in hybrids highly rated by Edmunds include the Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid, Hyundai Tucson Plug-in Hybrid, Toyota Prius Prime and Volvo XC60 Recharge.
Edmunds Says
Choosing between a hybrid vehicle and a plug-in hybrid vehicle comes down to three things. First, do you want the ability to drive only on electricity? Second, are you willing to pay more for a vehicle in order to get that? Third, are you willing to put up with some extra hassle to maximize electric-only driving?
If your answers to those questions are “no” and your only goal is to save money at the fuel pump, we recommend a hybrid. But if you want to eliminate as much gasoline use as possible without diving into the deep end of the electric vehicle ownership pool, a plug-in hybrid is perfect.
____________
This story was provided to The Associated Press by the automotive website Edmunds.
Christian Wardlaw is a contributor at Edmunds.
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