News
Tracking the Swing States for Harris and Trump
Iowa
Kan.
Ky.
Ala.
Alaska
Ariz.
Ark.
Calif.
Colo.
Conn.
Fla.
Ga.
Hawaii
Idaho
Ill.
Ind.
Texas
Utah
Vt
La.
Maine
Md.
Mass.
Mich.
Minn.
Miss.
Mo.
Mont.
Neb. 3rd CD
N.H.
N.J.
N.M.
N.Y.
N.C.
N.D.
Ohio
Okla.
Ore.
Pa.
R.I.
S.C.
S.D.
Tenn.
Va.
Wash.
W.Va.
Wis.
Wyo.
Del.
Nev.
Neb. 1st CD
Neb. 2
Maine 1
The presidential race will most likely come down to voters in 10 states that remain competitive, according to the most recent ratings by the Cook Political Report.
These states are the most competitive in the race for the presidency.
Lean Dem.
Tossup
Lean Rep.
Note: Nebraska and Maine each award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the top vote-getter in each congressional district. Nebraskaβs Second District is rated as βLean Democraticβ by Cook Political Report.
Solidly Democratic states
Solidly Republican states
There are many combinations of states that could put either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald J. Trump over the threshold of the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
If both candidates win all of the states in their solid, likely and lean categories, the race would come down to the six tossup states in yellow. Ms. Harris would need 44 electoral votes from the tossup states to win. Mr. Trump would need just 35.
Michigan
15 D +2.8
Pennsylvania
19
D +1.2
Wisconsin 10
D +0.6
Georgia
16
D +0.2 Arizona
11
D +0.3
Nevada
6 D +2.4
Tossups
State
Elec. votes
2020 margin
2024 polling
Harris +1.5Β βΊ
Trump +0.1Β βΊ
Harris +1.8Β βΊ
Not enough polls
Not enough polls
Not enough polls
The six states rated as tossups were all won narrowly by Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020. If the race comes down to these places, Mr. Trump has an advantage in the electoral math. He could win with just two electorally valuable tossup states β Pennsylvania and Georgia β while all of Ms. Harrisβs paths to victory include at least three. If Mr. Trump loses Georgia but wins Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris would still need at least three other tossups (in addition to Georgia) to win.
Of course, some of the states currently rated as leaning or likely Democrat or Republican could also come into play.
Minnesota Minn.
10
D +7.1
Nebraska 2nd District
Neb. 2 1
D +6.5
New Hampshire
N.H.
4 D +0.4
North Carolina
N.C.
16 R +1.3
New Mexico
N.M.
5 D +10.8
Virginia
Va.
13
D +10.1 Maine
Maine
2
D +9.1
Florida
Fla.
30
R +3.4
Maine 2nd District Me. 2
1
R +7.9
Texas
Texas 40
R +5.6
Note: Nebraska and Maine each award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the top vote-getter in each congressional district. Nebraskaβs second district is rated as βLean Democraticβ by Cook Political Report.
Lean Democrat
State
E.V.
2020
Lean Republican
State
E.V.
2020
Likely Democrat
State
E.V.
2020
Likely Republican
State
E.V.
2020
News
Brass bands in Beijing make way for sticker shock at home as Trump returns to escalating inflation
WASHINGTON (AP) β President Donald Trump returned from the spectacle of a Chinese state visit to a less than welcoming U.S. economy β with the military band and garden tour in Beijing giving way to pressure over how to fix Americaβs escalating inflation rate.
Consumer inflation in the United States increased to 3.8% annually in April, higher than what he inherited as the Iran war and the Republican presidentβs own tariffs have pushed up prices. Inflation is now outpacing wage gains and effectively making workers poorer. The Cleveland Federal Reserve estimates that annual inflation could reach 4.2% in May as the war has kept oil and gasoline prices high.
Trumpβs time with Chinese leader Xi Jinping appears unlikely to help the U.S. economy much, despite Trumpβs claims of coming trade deals. The trip occurred as many people are voting in primaries leading into the November general election while having to absorb the rising costs of gasoline, groceries, utility bills, jewelry, womenβs clothing, airplane tickets and delivery services. Democrats see the moment as a political opportunity.
βHeβs returning to a dumpster fire,β said Lindsay Owens, executive director of Groundwork Collaborative, a liberal think tank focused on economic issues. βThe president will not have the faith and confidence of the American people β the economy is their top issue and the president is saying, βYouβre on your own.ββ
The presidentβs trip to Beijing and his recent comments that indicated a tone-deafness to votersβ concerns about rising prices have suggested his focus is not on the American public and have undermined Republicans who had intended to campaign on last yearβs tax cuts as helping families.
Trump described the trip as a victory, saying on social media that Xi βcongratulated me on so many tremendous successes,β as the U.S. president has praised their relationship.
Trump told reporters that Boeing would be selling 200 aircraft β and maybe even 750 βif they do a good jobβ β to the Chinese. He said American farmers would be βvery happyβ because China would be βbuying billions of dollars of soybeans.β
βWe had an amazing time,β Trump said as he flew home on Air Force One, and told Fox Newsβ Bret Baier in an interview that gasoline prices were just some βshort-term painβ and would βdrop like a rockβ once the war ends.
Inflationary pain is not a factor in how Trump handles Iran
Trump departed from the White House for China by saying the negotiations over the Iran war depended on stopping Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. βI donβt think about Americansβ financial situation. I donβt think about anybody. I think about one thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon,β Trump said.
That remark prompted blowback because it suggested to some that Trump cared more about challenging Iran than fighting inflation at home. Trump defended his words, telling Fox News: βThatβs a perfect statement. Iβd make it again.β
The White House has since stressed that Trump is focused on inflation.
Asked later about the presidentβs words, Vice President JD Vance said there had been a βmisrepresentationβ of the remarks. White House spokesman Kush Desai said the βadministration remains laser-focused on delivering growth and affordability on the homefrontβ while indicating actions would be taken on grocery prices.
But as Trump appeared alongside Xi, new reports back home showed inflation rising for businesses and interest rates climbing on U.S. government debt.
His comments that Boeing would sell 200 jets to China caused the companyβs stock price to fall because investors had expected a larger number. There was little concrete information offered about any trade agreements reached during the summit, including Chinese purchases of U.S. exports such as liquefied natural gas and beef.
βForeign policy wins can matter politically, but only if voters feel stability and affordability in their daily lives,β said Brittany Martinez, a former Republican congressional aide who is the executive director of Principles First, a center-right advocacy group focused on democracy issues.
βMidterms are almost always a referendum on cost of living and public frustration, and Republicans are not immune from the same inflation and affordability pressures that hurt Democrats in recent cycles,β she added.
Democrats see Trump as vulnerable
Democratic lawmakers are seizing on Trumpβs comments before his trip as proof of his indifference to lowering costs. There is potential staying power of his remarks as Americans head into Memorial Day weekend facing rising prices for the hamburgers and hot dogs to be grilled.
βWhat Americans do not see is any sympathy, any support, or any plan from Trump and congressional Republicans to lower costs β in fact, they see the opposite,β Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York said Thursday.
Vance faulted the Biden administration for the inflation problem even though the inflation rate is now higher than it was when Trump returned to the White House in January 2025 with a specific mandate to fix it.
βThe inflation number last month was not great,β Vance said Wednesday, but he then stressed, βWeβre not seeing anything like what we saw under the Biden administration.β
Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 under Biden, a Democrat. By the time Trump took the oath of office, it was a far more modest 3%.
Trumpβs inflation challenge could get harder
The data tells a different story as higher inflation is spreading into the cost of servicing the national debt.
Over the past week, the interest rate charged on 10-year U.S. government debt jumped from 4.36% to 4.6%, an increase that implies higher costs for auto loans and mortgages.
βMy fear is that the layers of supply shocks that are affecting the U.S. economy will only further feed into inflationary pressures,β said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon.
Daco noted that last yearβs tariff increases were now translating into higher clothing prices. With the Supreme Court ruling against Trumpβs ability to impose tariffs by declaring an economic emergency, his administration is preparing a new set of import taxes for this summer.
Daco stressed that there have been a series of supply shocks. First, tariffs cut into the supply of imports. In addition, Trumpβs immigration crackdown cut into the supply of foreign-born workers. Now, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the vital waterway used to ship 20% of global oil supplies.
βWeβre seeing an erosion of growth,β Daco said.
News
Top Drug Regulator Is Fired From the F.D.A.
Dr. Tracy Beth Hoeg, the Food and Drug Administrationβs top drug regulator, said she was fired from the agency Friday after she declined to resign.
She said she did not know who had ordered her firing or why, nor whether Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. knew of her fate. The Department of Health and Human Services did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The departure reflected the upheaval at the F.D.A., days after the resignation of Dr. Marty Makary, the agency commissioner. Dr. Makary had become a lightning rod for critics of the agencyβs decisions to reject applications for rare disease drugs and to delay a report meant to supply damaging evidence about the abortion drug mifepristone. He also spent months before his departure pushing back on the White Houseβs requests for him to approve more flavored vapes, the reason he ultimately cited for leaving.
Dr. Hoegβs hiring had startled public health leaders who were familiar with her track record as a vaccine skeptic, and she played a leading role in some of the agencyβs most divisive efforts during her tenure. She worked on a report that purportedly linked the deaths of children and young adults to Covid vaccines, a dossier the agency has not released publicly. She was also the co-author of a document describing Mr. Kennedyβs decision to pare the recommendations for 17 childhood vaccines down to 11.
But in an interview on Friday, Dr. Hoeg said she βstuck with the science.β
βI am incredibly proud of the work we were doing,β Dr. Hoeg said, adding, βIβm glad that we didnβt give in to any pressures to approve drugs when it wasnβt appropriate.β
As the director of the agencyβs Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, she was a political appointee in a role that had been previously occupied by career officials. An epidemiologist who was trained in the United States and Denmark, she worked on efforts to analyze drug safety and on a panel to discuss the use of serotonin reuptake inhibitors, the most widely prescribed class of antidepressants, during pregnancy. She also worked on efforts to reduce animal testing and was the agencyβs liaison to an influential vaccine committee.
She made sure that her teams approved drugs only when the risk-benefit balance was favorable, she said.
The firing worsens the leadership vacuum at the F.D.A. and other agencies, with temporary leaders filling the role of commissioner, food chief and the head of the biologics center, which oversees vaccines and gene therapies. The roles of surgeon general and director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are also unfilled.
News
Supreme Court is death knell for Virginia’s Democratic-friendly congressional maps
The U.S. Supreme Court
Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
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Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
The U.S. Supreme Court refused Friday to allow Virginia to use a new congressional map that favored Democrats in all but one of the state’s U.S. House seats. The map was a key part of Democrats’ effort to counter the Republican redistricting wave set off by President Trump.
The new map was drawn by Democrats and approved by Virginia voters in an April referendum. But on May 8, the Supreme Court of Virginia in a 4-to-3 vote declared the referendum, and by extension the new map, null and void because lawmakers failed to follow the proper procedures to get the issue on the ballot, violating the state constitution.
Virginia Democrats and the state’s attorney general then appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, seeking to put into effect the map approved by the voters, which yields four more likely Democratic congressional seats. In their emergency application, they argued the Virginia Supreme Court was “deeply mistaken” in its decision on “critical issues of federal law with profound practical importance to the Nation.” Further, they asserted the decision “overrode the will of the people” by ordering Virginia to “conduct its election with the congressional districts that the people rejected.”
Republican legislators countered that it would be improper for the U.S. Supreme Court to wade into a purely state law controversy β especially since the Democrats had not raised any federal claims in the lower court.
Ultimately, the U.S. Supreme Court sided with Republicans without explanation leaving in place the state court ruling that voided the Democratic-friendly maps.
The court’s decision not to intervene was its latest in emergency requests for intervention on redistricting issues. In December, the high court OK’d Texas using a gerrymandered map that could help the GOP win five more seats in the U.S. House. In February, the court allowed California to use a voter-approved, Democratic-friendly map, adopted to offset Texas’s map. Then in March, the U.S. Supreme Court blocked the redrawing of a New York map expected to flip a Republican congressional district Democratic.
And perhaps most importantly, in April, the high court ruled that a Louisiana congressional map was a racial gerrymander and must be redrawn. That decision immediately set off a flurry of redistricting efforts, particularly in the South, where Republican legislators immediately began redrawing congressional maps to eliminate long established majority Black and Hispanic districts.
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