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NFL second-year breakout candidates: Will Levis and other 2023 draft picks ready to impress

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NFL second-year breakout candidates: Will Levis and other 2023 draft picks ready to impress

The number of rookies who don’t bother waiting for their true breakout season seems to increase annually. The latest example, perhaps, is Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud. Or, maybe Texans edge Will Anderson Jr. Or Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta and running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Maybe Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson. Oh, and probably Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua.

You get the point.

The 2023 rookie class made its mark, to be sure — and we’ve yet to hear everything from the entire group. With that in mind, let’s look at a few second-year players who could have breakout seasons (health willing) in 2024.


Quarterback

Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (Round 2, No. 33)

Frankly, a few guys have an argument here. Aidan O’Connell is in a fight with Gardner Minshew II for the Las Vegas job. If he wins that, do not be surprised if he (once again) outperforms expectations — O’Connell was one of the most undervalued prospects in the 2023 class. I’m also not ready to give up on Bryce Young, and I’m excited to see Anthony Richardson for more than a month.

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However, the breakout pick is Levis. He was a really tough evaluation coming out of Kentucky due to a toe injury he suffered in 2022, but his downfield accuracy (and confidence) was much better in 2021. That’s what we saw last season with Tennessee.

During Levis’ nine-game run as starter, 21.5 percent of his completions went for more than 20 yards — a tick better than Stroud’s number (20.5 across the entire season). Being consistently accurate at every level of the field is the next step for Levis, and it’s attainable with more healthy reps.

Running back

Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans (Round 3, No. 81)

Gibbs, Robinson and De’Von Achane all enjoyed big rookie seasons. Had it not been for a major ACL injury, Baltimore’s Keaton Mitchell (currently on the PUP list) would have joined them.

Spears was on the fringe, too, rushing for 453 yards on 100 attempts. He tied with Gibbs for second among rookies (behind Robinson) with 52 catches for 385 yards and another score. Replacing Derrick Henry with one human doesn’t happen. But even though Spears will have help from Tony Pollard, don’t be surprised if he’s the new star in Nashville by season’s end.

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Also keep an eye out for Chicago’s Roschon Johnson and Seattle’s Zach Charbonnet.

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Wide receiver

Tank Dell, Houston Texans (Round 3, No. 69)

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers (Round 2, No. 50)

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Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts (Round 3, No. 79) 

A broken fibula limited Dell to 11 games last season — and even so, it still might be cheating to include him here. The former Houston Cougars dynamo racked up 2.22 yards per route last season, third among rookies behind only Nacua and Rashee Rice. Despite his small frame (5-foot-8, 165 pounds), Dell is a force underneath and better in the air than people think (six contested catches last year).

Reed (64 catches, 793 yards, eight TDs) was one of the most unsung contributors to Jordan Love’s breakout season, and Downs, another undersized speedster, was arguably Richardson’s favorite target in Indianapolis prior to the QB’s injury. (Downs could miss the start of the regular season with a high ankle sprain.) Also don’t be shocked if Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba (who missed a lot of time in college) steps up and reminds people who he is out west this season.

Those players, Nacua, Rice, Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison make for an outstanding WR class just by themselves.

Tight end

Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers (Round 2, No. 42)

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Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers (Round 3, No. 78)

The 2023 tight end class was hailed as potentially historic, and it’s hard to hate on the production. LaPorta set a rookie TE receptions record, and Bills rookie Dalton Kincaid would’ve been the runaway top first-year tight end in any other season but 2023.

Oddly enough, though, the top two breakout candidates for 2024 play for the same team.

Musgrave is the favorite after putting up 34 catches for 352 yards and a touchdown in an injury-shortened, 11-game season. Kraft, his classmate and teammate, isn’t far behind. He played the full season, finishing with three fewer catches, three more yards and one more touchdown than Musgrave.

Both are terrific athletes — especially Musgrave, who flirted with 4.4 speed in college at 6-6, 250.

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Offensive line

Sidy Sow, New England Patriots (Round 4, No. 117)

Darnell Wright, Chicago Bears (Round 1, No. 10)

Joe Tippmann, New York Jets (Round 2, No. 43) 

Matthew Bergeron, Atlanta Falcons (Round 2, No. 38) 

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Peter Skoronski, Tennessee Titans (Round 1, No. 11)

Sow, a hyper-versatile and athletic big man, was one of my favorite Day 3 picks from the 2023 draft. The 6-4, 325-pounder was a left guard/tackle at Eastern Michigan, then shifted to right guard as a rookie. It wasn’t always pretty, but Sow had some big-time flashes in 13 starts.

Tippmann (who had some snap issues early in camp) and Wright both showed their potential in the run game last season and should continue to improve, while Bergeron got a full year’s worth of starts at right guard for the first time in his life. One of the most athletic linemen in the 2023 class, Bergeron was a right/left tackle only in college and could make a big jump as part of a very solid Atlanta front.

Skoronski, an outstanding college tackle, had his move inside to guard stunted by an early-season injury. If he can stay healthy, the Titans’ offensive line — which also added Alabama OT JC Latham in this year’s draft — might surprise people.


Defensive line

Tuli Tuipulotu, Los Angeles Chargers (Round 2, No. 54) 

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Keeanu Benton, Pittsburgh Steelers (Round 2, No. 49)

Calijah Kancey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Round 1, No. 19)

Karl Brooks, Green Bay Packers (Round 6, No. 179)

As with Dell, it’s probably a bit unfair to include Tuipulotu here — he had a really good rookie season (as did several rookie linemen, including Anderson, Jalen Carter, Byron Young and Kobie Turner). However, the quick and smart 6-3, 260-pounder now gets to work with Jesse Minter in an offshoot of the Ravens’ system. Look for the Chargers to heap more on his plate and unlock more than we’ve seen. He could be a star in that defense.

Benton has dropped weight and appears in line for more work after a very efficient rookie year. His combination of punch and foot speed could provide a serious, versatile upgrade inside for the Steelers.

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If Kancey can stay healthy for a full season and shore up his run discipline next to Vita Vea, Tampa Bay’s interior could be the best in the NFL.

Brooks, another Day 3 favorite from 2023, made the absolute most of a rotational role at multiple spots for Green Bay (four sacks, 25 pressures in just 256 reps — also, don’t forget about Lukas Van Ness) and, like Benton, has the athletic versatility to be a terror for slower linemen. Arizona edge BJ Ojulari also was on this list before he went down with a knee injury early in training camp, a tough blow for a promising youngster.

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Linebacker

Jack Campbell, Detroit Lions (Round 1, No. 18) 

SirVocea Dennis, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Round 5, No. 153) 

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Otis Reese IV, Tennessee Titans (UDFA)

Campbell’s rookie season got complicated when Detroit asked him to move out of the stack and into an edge role for a brief stretch. His play over the second half and into the playoffs, though, was very good. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him get the green dot as defensive play caller, even with veteran LB Alex Anzalone on the roster.

Dennis didn’t play much last season, but the 2023 fifth-rounder is in line for more work with Devin White now in Philadelphia. Dennis was a long, explosive general nuisance inside at Pitt (12 TFL, seven sacks as a senior) and has the type of effort/instinct combination Todd Bowles covets.

The best rookie linebacker in 2023 was Vikings undrafted free agent Ivan Pace Jr. But another UDFA, Reese showed real promise and serious play speed for a handful of games late last season. He could be an answer inside for the Titans this season.

Defensive back

Christian Gonzalez, New England Patriots (Round 1, No. 17)

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Brian Branch, Detroit Lions (Round 2, No. 45)

Jordan Battle, Cincinnati Bengals (Round 3, No. 95)

Tyrique Stevenson, Chicago Bears (Round 2, No. 56) 

Gonzalez had a great first month last season before his year ended because of a shoulder injury. The best mover among corners in the ’23 class, Gonzalez (4.38-second 40-yard dash, 41-inch vertical, 32-inch arms) could be a bright spot early for Jerod Mayo.

Branch is another player who might have outperformed this list, but he did lose several games to injury last season. More importantly, Detroit plans to further expand his role in 2024 — the Lions believe he’s a future Pro Bowler. Cincinnati could say the same about Battle, another ex-Alabama safety who looks like a potential perennial stud.

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Other candidates include Joey Porter Jr. and Christian Izien. Stevenson, though, had some outstanding stretches last year in Chicago and should only improve opposite Jaylon Johnson.

(Top photos of Will Levis, left, and Keeanu Benton: Matthew Maxey, Mark Alberti / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Culture

Book Review: ‘Selling Opportunity,’ by Mary Lisa Gavenas

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Book Review: ‘Selling Opportunity,’ by Mary Lisa Gavenas

SELLING OPPORTUNITY: The Story of Mary Kay, by Mary Lisa Gavenas


Mary Kay, the cosmetics company whose multilevel marketing included sales parties and whose biggest earners were awarded pink Cadillacs, was really in the business of selling second chances. Or, at least, that’s what Mary Lisa Gavenas argues in “Selling Opportunity,” a dual biography of the brand and the woman behind it.

Mary Kathlyn Wagner, who would become Mary Kay Ash, “the most famous saleswoman in the world” and “maybe the most famous ever,” in Gavenas’s extravagant words, was born in 1918 to a poor family and raised mostly in Houston. Although a good student, she eloped at 16 with a slightly older boy. The young couple had two babies in quick succession.

Mary Kay’s creation was a combination of timing and good luck. Door-to-door sales was a thriving industry — but, traditionally, a man’s world: Lugging heavy samples was not considered feminine, and entering the homes of strangers, unsafe. But things began to change during the Great Depression, Gavenas suggests, thanks to a convergence of factors — financial pressures and the rise of the aspirational prosperity gospel espoused by Dale Carnegie’s self-help manuals.

At the same time, female-run beauty lines like Annie Turnbo Malone’s Poro and Madam C.J. Walker’s were finding great success in Black communities. And, coincidentally or otherwise, the California Perfume Company changed its name to Avon Products in 1939.

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Ash began by selling books door to door, moving on to Stanley Home Products in the 1940s. She was talented, but direct sales was a rough gig. Every party to show off wares was supposed to beget two more bookings; these led to sales that resulted in new recruits. But there was no real security or stability: no salary, no medical benefits, no vacations. “Stop selling and you would end up right back where you started. Or worse,” the author writes.

Gavenas, a onetime beauty editor who wrote “Color Stories,” takes her time unspooling Mary Kay’s tale, with a great deal of evident research. We learn about direct sales, women’s rights and Texas history.

But, be warned: Readers must really enjoy both this woman and this world to take pleasure in “Selling Opportunity.” Mary Kay the person keeps marrying, getting divorced or widowed and working her way through various sales jobs (it’s hard to keep track of the myriad companies and last names). Gavenas seems to leave no detail out. Thus, the 1963 founding of the eponymous beauty company doesn’t come until almost 200 pages in.

Beauty by Mary Kay included a Cleansing Cream, a Magic Masque and a Nite Cream (which containined ammoniated mercury, later banned by the F.D.A.). The full line of products — which was how Mary Kay strongly encouraged customers to buy them — ran to a steep $175 in today’s money. (To fail to acquire the whole set, Ash said, was “like giving you my recipe for chocolate cake but leaving out an important ingredient.”)

Potential clients attended gatherings at acquaintances’ homes — no undignified doorbell-ringing here — where they received a mini facial, then an application of cosmetics like foundation, lip color and cream rouge — and a wig. The company made $198,514 in sales its first year.

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Although Ash may have seemed a pioneer, in many ways Mary Kay was a traditionalist company, whose philosophy was “God first, family second, career third.” Saleswomen, official literature dictated, were working to provide themselves with treats rather than necessities so as not to threaten their breadwinner husbands.

And yet, they were also encouraged to sell sell sell. Golden Goblet pendants were awarded for major orders. After the company started using custom pink Peterbilt trucks for shipping, it began commissioning those Cadillacs for top consultants. (Mary Kay preferred gifts to cash bonuses, lest women save the money to spend on practical things rather than the licensed frivolities.) The Cadillacs, always driven on company leases, would become industry legend and part of American pop culture lore. “Never to be run-down, repainted or resold, the cars would double as shining pink advertisements for her selling opportunity,” Gavenas writes.

The woman herself was iconic, too. While Ash was a product of the Depression, she was also undeniably over-the-top. She wore white suits with leopard trim, lived in a custom Frank L. Meier house and brought her poodle to the office.

Mary Kay went public in 1968, making her the first woman to chair a company on the New York Stock Exchange. By the 1990s, the Mary Kay headquarters near Dallas was almost 600,000 square feet. They commissioned a hagiographic company biopic; there was a Mary Kay consultant Barbie; they were making $1 billion in wholesale. When she died, in 2001, Ash was worth $98 million.

And yet, Gavenas cites that at the company’s height, in 1992, sales reps made on average just $2,400 per year.

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Instead of so much time in the pink fantasia of Mary Kay, it would have been nice for a few detours showing how infrequently the opportunities the company sold were truly realized.

SELLING OPPORTUNITY: The Story of Mary Kay | By Mary Lisa Gavenas | Viking | 435 pp. | $35

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Historical Fiction Books That Illustrate the Bonds Between Mother and Child

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Historical Fiction Books That Illustrate the Bonds Between Mother and Child

We often think of the past as if it were another world — and in some ways, it is. The politics, religion and social customs of other eras can be vastly different from our own. But one thing historians and historical fiction writers alike often notice is the constancy of human emotion. The righteous anger of a customer complaining about a Mesopotamian copper merchant in 1750 B.C. feels familiar. Tributes to beloved household pets from ancient Romans and Egyptians make us smile. And we are captivated by stories of love, betrayal and sacrifice from Homer to Shakespeare and beyond.

In literature, letters, tablets and even on coins, we find overwhelming evidence that people in the past felt the same emotions we do. Love, hate, fear, grief, joy: These feelings were as much a part of their lives as they are of our own. And they resonate especially acutely in the bond between mother and child. Here are eight historical novels that explore the meaning of motherhood across the centuries.

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How ‘The Sheep Detectives’ Brought its Ovine Sleuths to Life

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How ‘The Sheep Detectives’ Brought its Ovine Sleuths to Life

Sometime in the 2000s, the producer Lindsay Doran asked her doctor for a book recommendation. “I’m reading that book everybody’s reading,” the doctor replied. “You know, the one about the shepherd who’s murdered and the sheep solve the crime.”

Doran had not heard of the book, “Three Bags Full,” a best-selling novel by a German graduate student (“No one’s reading it,” she recalls responding, inaccurately), but she was struck by what sounded like an irresistible elevator pitch. “Everything came together for me in that one sentence,” she said. “The fact that it was sheep rather than some other animal felt so resonant.”

Doran spent years trying to extricate the book from a complicated rights situation, and years more turning it into a movie. The result, opening Friday, is “The Sheep Detectives,” which features Nicholas Braun and Emma Thompson as humans, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Patrick Stewart and others giving voice to C.G.I. sheep stirred from their customary ruminations by the death of their shepherd, George (Hugh Jackman).

The film, rated PG, is an Agatha Christie-lite mystery with eccentric suspects, a comically bumbling cop (Braun) and a passel of ovine investigators. It’s also a coming-of-age story about growing up and losing your innocence that might have a “Bambi”-like resonance for children. The movie’s sheep have a way of erasing unpleasant things from their minds — they believe, for instance, that instead of dying, they just turn into clouds — but learn that death is an inextricable part of life.

“In some ways, the most important character is Mopple, the sheep played by Chris O’Dowd,” the screenwriter, Craig Mazin, said in a video interview. “He has a defect — he does not know how to forget — and he’s been carrying his memories all alone.”

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“Three Bags Full” is an adult novel that includes grown-up themes like drugs and suicide. In adapting it for a younger audience, Mazin toned down its darker elements, changed its ending, and — for help in writing about death — consulted a book by Fred Rogers, TV’s Mister Rogers, about how to talk to children about difficult subjects.

The journey from book to film has been long and circuitous. “Three Bags Full” was written by Leonie Swann, then a 20-something German doctoral student studying English literature. Distracting herself from her unwritten dissertation, on the topic of “the animal point of view in fiction,” she began a short story “playing around with the idea of sheep detectives,” she said. “And I realized it was more like a novel, and it wasn’t the worst novel I’d ever seen.”

Why sheep? “I wasn’t someone who was thinking about sheep all the time,” Swann, who lives in the English countryside and has a dog named Ezra Hound, said in a video interview. Yet they have always hovered on the periphery of her life.

There was a friendly sheep that she used to see on her way to school. There was an irate ram that once chased her through the streets of a Bavarian village. And there were thousands and thousands of sheep in the fields of Ireland, where she lived for a time. “There were so many of them, and you could tell there was a lot of personality behind them,” she said.

A book in which sheep are stirred to action had to be a mystery, she said, to motivate the main characters. “In a lot of other stories, you would have trouble making a sheep realize there’s a story there,” she said. “They would just keep grazing. But murder is an existential problem that speaks to sheep as well as humans.”

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Swann (the name is a pseudonym; she has never publicly disclosed her real name) found a literary agent, Astrid Poppenhusen, who brought her manuscript to market. Published in 2005, the book was translated into 30 languages and ended up spending three and a half years on German best-seller lists. (The German title is “Glennkill,” after the village in which it takes place.) Other novels followed, including a sheep-centric sequel, “Big Bad Wool,” but Swann never finished her dissertation.

Doran, the producer, read the book — now published in the United States by Soho Press, along with four other Swann novels — soon after hearing about it. She was determined to make it into a movie. Whenever she told anyone about the idea, she said, she had them at “sheep.”

The director, Kyle Balda (whose credits include “Minions”), was so excited when he first read the script, in 2022, that “I immediately drove out to a sheep farm” near his house in Oregon, he said in a video interview. “Very instantly I could see the behavior of the sheep, their different personalities. I learned very quickly that there are more varieties of sheep than dogs.”

How to make the sheep look realistic, and how to strike the proper balance between their inherent sheep-iness and their human-esque emotions were important questions the filmmakers grappled with.

It was essential that “the sheep in this world are sheep” rather than humans in sheep’s clothing, Balda said. “It’s not the kind of story where they are partnered with humans and talking to each other.”

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That means that like real sheep, the movie sheep have short attention spans. They’re afraid to cross the road. “They don’t drive cars; they don’t wear pants; they’re not joke characters saying things like, ‘This grass would taste better with a little ranch dressing,’” Doran said.

And whenever they speak, their words register to humans as bleating, the way the adult speech in “Peanuts” cartoons sounds like trombone-y gibberish to Charlie Brown and his friends.

Lily, the leader of the flock, is played by Julia Louis-Dreyfus. It is not her first time voicing an animal in a movie: She has played, among other creatures, an ant in “A Bug’s Life” and a horse in “Animal Farm.” “When I read the script, I thought, ‘Wow, this is so weird,’” she said in a video interview. “It’s not derivative of anything else.”

Lily is unquestionably not a person; among other things, like a real sheep, she has a relatively immobile face set off by lively ears. “But her journey is a human journey where she realizes certain things about life she didn’t understand,” Louis-Dreyfus said. “There’s also the question of being a leader, and how to do that when you’re questioning your own point of view.”

Nicholas Braun took easily to the role of Officer Tim, the inept constable charged with solving the shepherd’s murder.

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“The part was a little Greg-adjacent in the beginning, and I don’t really want to play too many Gregs,” Braun said via video, referring to Cousin Greg, his hapless punching bag of a character in the TV drama “Succession.”

“I’m post-Greg,” he said.

It takes Officer Tim some time to notice that the neighborhood sheep might be actively helping him tackle the case. But Braun said that unlike Greg, who is stuck in perpetual ineptitude, Tim gets to grow into a braver and more assertive person, a take-charge romantic hero — much the way the sheep are forced into action from their default position of “just forgetting about it and moving on and going back to eating grass,” he said.

Braun mused for a bit about other potential animal detectives — horses, say, or cows — but concluded that the sheep in the film were just right for the job. He predicted that the movie would change people’s perception of sheep, much the way “Toy Story” made them “look at their toys, or their kids’ toys, differently.”

“I don’t think people are going to be eating as much lamb after this,” he said.,

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